scholarly journals Regional climate changes in the south part of East Siberia for the last 4.5 ka (Lake Frolikha, Northern Baikal area, Russia)

Author(s):  
A. Fedotov ◽  
◽  
E. Osipov ◽  
O. Stepanova ◽  
S. Petrovskii ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
S. Vorobyeva ◽  
◽  
T. Zheleznyakova ◽  
A. Fedotov ◽  
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...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.


2000 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth L. Cole ◽  
Eugene Wahl

AbstractPaleoenvironments of the Torrey Pines State Reserve were reconstructed from a 3600-yr core from Los Peñasquitos Lagoon using fossil pollen, spores, charcoal, chemical stratigraphy, particle size, and magnetic susceptibility. Late Holocene sediments were radiocarbon dated, while the historical sediments were dated using sediment chemistry, fossil pollen, and historical records. At 3600 yr B.P., the estuary was a brackish-water lagoon. By 2800 yr B.P., Poaceae (grass) pollen increased to high levels, suggesting that the rising level of the core site led to its colonization by Spartina foliosa (cord-grass), the lowest-elevation plant type within regional estuaries. An increase in pollen and spores of moisture-dependent species suggests a climate with more available moisture after 2600 yr B.P. This change is similar to that found 280 km to the north at 3250 yr B.P., implying that regional climate changes were time-transgressive from north to south. Increased postsettlement sediment input resulted from nineteenth-century land disturbances caused by grazing and fire. Sedimentation rates increased further in the twentieth century due to closure of the estuarine mouth. The endemic Pinus torreyana (Torrey pine) was present at the site throughout this 3600-yr interval but was less numerous prior to 2100 yr B.P. This history may have contributed to the low genetic diversity of this species.


2011 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Lynch ◽  
Sara C. Hotchkiss ◽  
Randy Calcote

AbstractWe show how sedimentary charcoal records from multiple sites within a single landscape can be used to compare fire histories and reveal small scale patterns in fire regimes. Our objective is to develop strategies for classifying and comparing late-Holocene charcoal records in Midwestern oak- and pine-dominated sand plain ecosystems where fire regimes include a mix of surface and crown fires. Using standard techniques for the analysis of charcoal from lake sediments, we compiled 1000- to 4000-yr-long records of charcoal accumulation and charcoal peak frequencies from 10 small lakes across a sand plain in northwestern Wisconsin. We used cluster analysis to identify six types of charcoal signatures that differ in their charcoal influx rates, amount of grass charcoal, and frequency and magnitude of charcoal peaks. The charcoal records demonstrate that while fire histories vary among sites, there are regional patterns in the occurrence of charcoal signature types that are consistent with expected differences in fire regimes based on regional climate and vegetation reconstructions. The fire histories also show periods of regional change in charcoal signatures occurring during times of regional climate changes at ~700, 1000, and 3500 cal yr BP.


Author(s):  
А.А. Лагутин ◽  
Н.В. Волков ◽  
Е.Ю. Мордвин

Представлены результаты исследований влияния глобальных климатических изменений системы Земля на климат Западной Сибири. Для установления зон региона, в которых к середине XXI в. прогнозируются изменения, использовались модельные данные региональной климатической модели RegCM4 и принятые в этом классе задач стандартизованные евклидовы расстояния между характеристиками климата для двух состояний климатической системы — современного и будущего. Установлены зоны Западной Сибири, в которых в рамках сценариев RCP 4.5 и RCP 8.5 возможной эволюции глобальной системы к 2050 г. прогнозируются изменения климата. Purpose. An analysis of the influence of a global climate changes on the climate of Western Siberia, determination of zones of the region where changes are expected in the middle of the twenty-first century. Methodology. Results obtained using the model data of the regional climate model RegCM4 and the standardized Euclidean distances between climate characteristics. Findings, originality. Simulations of the climate characteristics for the two states of the climate system — contemporary and future — have been carried out. The zones of Western Siberia region, in which climate change is expected in the framework of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios by the 2050, have been determined.


2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 4783-4810 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Mathison ◽  
A. J. Wiltshire ◽  
P. Falloon ◽  
A. J. Challinor

Abstract. South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960–2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990–2006). The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow could mean additional water resources for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but has implications in terms of inundation risk. These projected increases could be more than countered by changes in demand due to depleted groundwater, increases in domestic use or expansion of water intense industries. Including missing hydrological processes in the model would make these projections more robust but could also change the sign of the projections.


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