Performed Activity Actual Duration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Charles M. Willich

No law has hitherto been discovered, by which a correct table of mortality could be constructed, but attempts have been made by De Moivre and others to obtain an approximation.If, in conformity with the opinion now generally entertained, and in which I concur, we adopt the Carlisle Table of Mortality, as formed by Milne from the observations made by Dr. Heysham, as a nearer approximation to the actual duration of human life than any other table of mortality hitherto in use, it is remarkable that the following simple hypothesis should enable us to obtain the expectation of life almost identical with Milne's table for a long series of years up to the age of 60.



Vestnik MGSU ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1088-1094
Author(s):  
Leonid V. Kievskiy ◽  
Yakov I. Kievskiy

Introduction. A relatively new form of transformation of the territory in the current urban development, the renovation of quarters, requires close scientific study and methodological justification. Renovated neighborhoods, as well as projects for the construction of new houses, have individual features and characteristics. The authors hypothesize that, despite the variety of characteristics of renovated neighborhoods and projects for the construction of new houses, traditional in-line construction with the allocation of characteristic stages is possible. Materials and methods. To study the actual duration of the stages of creating objects under the renovation program (which is necessary to identify objects of similar duration), a special database was formed in the Scientific and Project Center “City Development”. As of 15.05.2021, 313 objects involved in the renovation program are included in this special database. A thorough verification of the specified database was performed. As a result, 122 objects with a spread of construction duration values from 11 months to 43.2 months are stored in the verified database. In addition, the materials of the information system for ensuring urban planning activities (ISOGD) of Moscow were used. The initial materials allowed us to identify a number of characteristic stages in the renovation program for each object. Results. To analyze the design duration of construction, the set of objects is divided into 2 parts: commissioning in 2021 and commissioning in subsequent years. For each part, histograms of the distribution of the duration of construction of houses during renovation are constructed and it is proved that the law of normal distribution is observed. A schematic model of renovation processes with multiple process durations is presented. The overall duration of the design (project stage) can take 1 year, construction — 2 years, and the combined stages: preparation of documents, relocation and demolition, will approximately take 1 year. This four-year wave cycle is then repeated the required number of times. The calendar plan of renovation for three wave objects with the allocation of the leading stream is presented. The ratio of flow processes during renovation is most clearly reflected in the constructed cyclogram of a multi-rhythmic object flow modified for renovation conditions. Combined schedules of renovation of in-line construction are constructed. Conclusions. Despite the considerable variety of renovated neighborhoods and projects for the construction of new houses, the authors of the article prove that traditional in-line construction with the allocation of characteristic stages is possible. For large contracting organizations, it is realistic to form a multi-rhythmic object flow with the allocation of the construction stage as the leading flow and calculate the renovation cyclogram.



2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iakov Pronozin ◽  
Denis Volosiuk

The method for determining the duration of a combined foundation device, which is constructed in several stages, is considered in the article. The main stages include the construction of structures and the regulation of the stress-strain state of the soil base, which is carried out by pressing it. Pressurization is carried out during the construction of the building. On an example of construction of the linear schedule the mutual coordination of works of each stage during building of a building is resulted. The possibility of varying the time parameters of the network model is presented depending on the parameters of the crimping process. Between the late and early beginnings of work there is a common time reserve, which is part of the technological break. The authors present empirical data on the actual duration of concreting of grillage of combined foundations. The study of time parameters of technological processes was based on such methods of observation as timekeeping, photo-timing and video and photo-fixation. The measurements were carried out during the construction of the residential complex «Neighbors» in Tyumen. The scope of research included the study of labor costs of the team, consisting of seven concrete workers. The investigated technological process of concreting consistently included the reception and direction of the concrete mix, laying, leveling and compacting the mixture, smoothing and smoothing the grillage surface. Based on the data obtained, the dependencies of the average duration of concrete work on the volume of the concrete mix laid in the cells (shells) are revealed. The comparison of work durations on both foundations is made. Actual work is determined and work time standards are established, allowing to organize concrete works with sufficient precision when drawing up calendar plans within the framework of working out of projects for the production of works. This article is made in the framework of the dissertation research by co-author Volosiuk D.V.



2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 990-994
Author(s):  
J. Phillipson ◽  
N. Kuruppu ◽  
T. Chikura ◽  
C. McLachlan ◽  
L. McNeill ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Treatment of TB is often extended beyond the recommended duration. The aim of this study was to assess prevalence of extended treatment and to identify associated risk factors. We also aimed to determine the frequency and type of adverse drug reactions (ADR) experienced by this study population.METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study of all patients treated for active TB at Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand, between 1 March 2012 and 31 December 2018. Data for 192 patients were collected on patient demographics, disease characteristics and treatment characteristics, including planned and actual duration of treatment and ADRs.RESULTS Of 192 patients, 35 (18.2%) had treatment extended, and 85 (46.5%) of 183 with fully drug-susceptible TB received ≥9 months treatment. The most common reasons for extension were persistent or extensive disease and ADR. Extended treatment duration was not associated with any patient or disease characteristics. We found 35 (18.2%) patients experienced at least one ADR. The most common ADRs were hepatitis, rash and peripheral neuropathy.CONCLUSION TB treatment extension beyond WHO guidelines is common. Further research is needed to guide management of those with slow response to treatment. Methods for early detection of ADR, systems to improve adherence and therapeutic drug monitoring are potentially useful strategies.



2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 652-660
Author(s):  
Gennadiy G. Onischenko ◽  
Tatiana E. Sizikova ◽  
Vitaliy N. Lebedev ◽  
Sergey V. Borisevich

The most effective means of combating the COVID-19 pandemic s the formation of herd immunity, with the formation of an immune population to infection. Vaccination rates are continuously increasing. In early February 2021, WHO announced that the number of people vaccinated against the disease for the first time exceeded the number of infected. In early June 2021 the vaccinated number exceeded 2 billion which is more than 12 times the total number infected for the entire duration of the pandemic. The high rate of vaccination leads to the formulation of a number of questions concerning the effectiveness of vaccines currently used for mass immunization the level of herd immunity, necessary to stop the spread of the disease, the actual duration of the vaccination carried out, long-term prospects of the platforms, used in the creation of vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to substantiate reasoned answers to the questions posed.



2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1323-1339
Author(s):  
Magdalini Titirla ◽  
Georgios Aretoulis

Purpose This paper aims to examine selected similar Greek highway projects to create artificial neural network-based models to predict their actual construction duration based on data available at the bidding stage. Design/methodology/approach Relevant literature review is presented that highlights similar research approaches. Thirty-seven highway projects, constructed in Greece, with similar type of available data, were examined. Considering each project’s characteristics and the actual construction duration, correlation analysis is implemented, with the aid of SPSS. Correlation analysis identified the most significant project variables toward predicting actual duration. Furthermore, the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function, highlighted the most important subset of variables. The selected variables through correlation analysis and/or WEKA and appropriate combinations of these are used as input neurons for a neural network. Fast Artificial Neural Network (FANN) Tool is used to construct neural network models in an effort to predict projects’ actual duration. Findings Variables that significantly correlate with actual time at completion include initial cost, initial duration, length, lanes, technical projects, bridges, tunnels, geotechnical projects, embankment, landfill, land requirement (expropriation) and tender offer. Neural networks’ models succeeded in predicting actual completion time with significant accuracy. The optimum neural network model produced a mean squared error with a value of 6.96E-06 and was based on initial cost, initial duration, length, lanes, technical projects, tender offer, embankment, existence of bridges, geotechnical projects and landfills. Research limitations/implications The sample size is limited to 37 projects. These are extensive highway projects with similar work packages, constructed in Greece. Practical implications The proposed models could early in the planning stage predict the actual project duration. Originality/value The originality of the current study focuses both on the methodology applied (combination of Correlation Analysis, WEKA, FannTool) and on the resulting models and their potential application for future projects.



2001 ◽  
Vol 280 (4) ◽  
pp. R1206-R1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Christophe Leloup ◽  
Albert Goldbeter

With the use of a molecular model for circadian rhythms in Drosophila based on transcriptional regulation, we show how a single, critical pulse of light can permanently suppress circadian rhythmicity, whereas a second light pulse can restore the abolished rhythm. The phenomena occur via the pulsatile induction of either protein degradation or gene expression in conditions in which a stable steady state coexists with stable circadian oscillations of the limit cycle type. The model indicates that suppression by a light pulse can only be accounted for by assuming that the biochemical effects of such a pulse much outlast its actual duration. We determine the characteristics of critical pulses suppressing the oscillations as a function of the phase at which the rhythm is perturbed. The model predicts how the amplitude and duration of the biochemical changes induced by critical pulses vary with this phase. The results provide a molecular, dynamic explanation for the long-term suppression of circadian rhythms observed in a variety of organisms in response to a single light pulse and for the subsequent restoration of the rhythms by a second light pulse.



1988 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard L. Brigner

It was demonstrated with 7 observers that the duration of a high frequency tone was perceived to be longer than the duration of a low frequency tone, even though the actual duration of the two tones was equal.



Perception ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott W Brown ◽  
D Alan Stubbs

In two experiments, different groups of subjects heard four musical selections and then estimated the duration of each selection. Some groups made retrospective time estimates while others made prospective estimates. In both experiments, analyses of the psychophysical relation between perceived and actual duration showed that the slopes of straight-line fits were flatter and accounted for a smaller proportion of the variance under retrospective as compared with prospective conditions. In addition, in experiment 1, retrospective subjects were less accurate in rank ordering the selections from longest to shortest. There was also a serial-order effect, with selections estimated longer when they occurred early in the sequence. In experiment 2 the slopes decreased as the selections in a series became longer. Both retrospective and prospective estimates also exhibited a context effect, in that estimates of a given selection were influenced by the relative durations of the other three selections in the series. The results on inaccurate retrospective judgments raise questions about prior research on stimulus factors and retrospective timing. However, similarities under retrospective and prospective conditions suggest that timing under these conditions, although different in some respects, reflects a similar process.



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