Childhood epidemics and the demographic landscape of the Aland Archipelago

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.32469/10355/66175 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Erin Lee Miller

Keyword(s):

Immune Suppression ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Demographic History ◽

Childhood Diseases ◽

Secondary Infections ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

History Of ◽

Susceptible Populations ◽

Expected Mortality

Historically, the introduction of childhood diseases such as measles or smallpox resulted in the infection of nearly every susceptible individual in a community. While smallpox has long been considered the deadlier of the two childhood diseases, research has shown that the immune response to measles infection results in immune suppression that can last for weeks or even months. Higher mortality during measles epidemics has typically been associated with completely susceptible populations; however, in Aland, Finland--a population that experienced regular epidemics of both childhood diseases--mortality from all causes during the 1820-21 measles epidemic was 25% higher than that experienced during the 1823-24 smallpox epidemic. Excess mortality surrounding measles epidemics suggests that this disease may have larger impacts on the demographic history of populations than previously thought. This study uses archival records to investigate syndemic interactions between measles and other diseases during a 19th century measles epidemic in the Aland Islands, Finland. Comparisons to smallpox and a non-epidemic period indicated greater than expected mortality for individuals aged 5 to 9 years and over 50 years; though neither epidemic had long-term demographic consequences. These results are consistent with deaths from secondary infections due to measles-induced immune suppression, but not conclusive. The unknown impact of measles exposure on adults with antibodies, and the variety of other diseases and symptom descriptions, indicates that the possibility of co-occurring epidemics cannot be ruled out.

Download Full-text

Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18083913 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 3913

Author(s):

Martin Rypdal ◽

Kristoffer Rypdal ◽

Ola Løvsletten ◽

Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽

Elinor Ytterstad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Regressive Model ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Expected Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive Model ◽

Excess Deaths

We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year, July 2019 to July 2020, was 517 (95%CI = (12, 1074)) in Norway and 4329 [3331, 5325] in Sweden. There were 255 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period of 11 March–11 November, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. We estimated that the number of YLL attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden was 45,850 [13,915, 80,276] without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43,073 (12,160, 85,451) after adjusting for the displacement accounted for by the auto-regressive model. In conclusion, we find good agreement between officially recorded COVID-19 related deaths and all-cause excess deaths in both countries during the first epidemic wave and no significant mortality displacement that can explain those deaths.

Download Full-text

A Minimal Demographic History of Israel

The Oxford Handbook of Israeli Politics and Society ◽

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190675585.013.3 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Sergio DellaPergola

Keyword(s):

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Large Scale ◽

Population Change ◽

Demographic History ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Jewish People ◽

Population Projections ◽

Demographic Development ◽

History Of

This chapter surveys the demographic development of Israel/Palestine from antiquity through the present and looking toward the future. Territory and habitability is described regarding changing boundary definitions and internal divisions that have reflected shifting political rule. Population change is examined in the long term, noting the significant historical ups and downs in population size and socioeconomic development. The development of contemporary population in Israel and Palestine reflects large-scale international migration, including mass movement of Jewish and Arab refugees. Variable fertility levels and birth rates have also significantly affected the pace of population growth. Attention is paid to the more recent balance of Jews and Palestinians over the whole territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and an overview is presented of the distribution of world Jewish and Palestinian diasporas. Finally, population projections for the Jewish people, the state of Israel, and the whole territory of Israel/Palestine are presented.

Download Full-text

Mortality in Norway and Sweden before and after the Covid-19 outbreak: a cohort study

10.1101/2020.11.11.20229708 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Frederik E Juul ◽

Henriette C Jodal ◽

Ishita Barua ◽

Erle Refsum ◽

Ørjan Olsvik ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

List Type ◽

School Closures ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Specific Mortality ◽

Before And After ◽

Rate Ratios ◽

Expected Mortality

AbstractObjectivesNorway and Sweden are similar countries regarding ethnicity, socioeconomics and health care. To combat Covid-19, Norway implemented extensive measures such as school closures and lock-downs, while Sweden has been criticised for relaxed measures against Covid-19. We compared the effect of the different national strategies on all-cause and Covid-19 associated mortality.DesignRetrospective cohort.SettingThe countries Norway and Sweden.ParticipantsAll inhabitants.Main outcome measuresWe calculated weekly mortality rates (MR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 100,000 individuals as well as mortality rate ratios (MRR) comparing the epidemic year (29th July, 2019 to 26th July, 2020) to the four preceding years (July 2015 to July 2019). We also compared Covid-19 associated deaths and mortality rates for the weeks of the epidemic in Norway and Sweden (16th March to 26th July, 2020).ResultsIn Norway, mortality rates were stable during the first three 12-month periods of 2015/16; 2016/17 and 2017/18 (MR 14.8 to 15.1 per 100,000), and slightly lower in the two most recent periods including during epidemic period (2018/19 and 2019/20; 14.5 per 100,000). In Sweden, all-cause mortality was stable during the first three 12-month periods of 2015/16; 2016/17 and 2017/18 (MR 17.2 to 17.5 per 100,000), but lower in the year 2018/19 immediately preceding the epidemic (16.2 per 100,000). Covid-19 associated mortality rates were 0.2 per 100,000 (95%CI 0.1 to 0.4) in Norway and 2.9 (95%CI 1.9 to 3.9) in Sweden. The increase in mortality was confined to individuals in 70 years or older.ConclusionsAll-cause mortality remained unaltered in Norway. In Sweden, the observed increase in all-cause mortality during Covid-19 was partly due to a lower than expected mortality preceding the epidemic and the observed excess mortality, was followed by a lower than expected mortality after the first Covid-19 wave. This may suggest mortality displacement.Strengths and limitations of this studyCompares two similar contries in all aspects but the handling of the Covid-19 epidemicEvaluates the mortality for several years before and during the epidemicProvides a possible explanation of the observed mortality changesDiscusses the socioeconomic effects of the different strategies in the two countriesDoes not evaluate cause-specific mortality

Download Full-text

Severe Adaptive Immune Suppression May be Why Patients with Severe COVID-19 Cannot be Discharged From the ICU Even After Negative Viral Tests

10.21203/rs.3.rs-709952/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yue Zhou ◽

Xuelian Liao ◽

Xiangrong Song ◽

Min He ◽

Fei Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Critically Ill ◽

Immune Suppression ◽

Inflammatory Responses ◽

Expression Profiles ◽

Severe Disease ◽

Antifungal Drugs ◽

The Body ◽

Adaptive Immune ◽

Secondary Infections

Abstract Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, a phenomenon emerged in which some patients with severe disease were critically ill and could not be discharged from the ICU even though they exhibited negative viral tests. In general, continuous negative viral tests are thought to indicate that the virus has been cleared from the body and that the patients can be considered "recovered". However, because these patients were still critically ill, they obviously had not truly recovered from the disease. We sought to investigate why these patients were still critically ill even though they exhibited negative viral tests by analyzing the gene expression profiles of their peripheral immune cells using transcriptome sequencing.Methods: Fourteen severe COVID-19 patients with at least 3 negative virus tests but were still in critical ill and could not be discharged from the ICU were enrolled. Blood samples from 14 patients and 5 healthy donors were collected. Total RNA was extracted from nucleated cells for RNA-Sequencing. FeatureCounts v1.5.0-p3 was used to count the reads numbers mapped to each gene. Results: All enrolled patients, regardless of changes in genes related to different symptoms and inflammatory responses, showed universally and severely decreased expression of adaptive immunity-related genes, especially those related to T/B cell arms and HLA molecules, and that these patients exhibited long-term secondary infections. This adaptive immune suppression is unlikely due to classic immune checkpoint molecules such as PD-1 or long-term use of glucocorticoids but may be caused by an unknown mechanism that has not yet been discovered.Conclusions: Our findings strongly suggest that an initial recovery of these severe COVID-19 patients, as indicated by negative viral tests, may not indicate actual recovery. They still suffer from secondary infections for a long period of time because of severe adaptive immunosuppression and need to receive a variety of antibiotics, antifungal drugs, or combination therapies. Appropriate methods should be used to detect their adaptive immune function, and appropriate immunotherapy that can activate the adaptive immune response should be developed. Trial registration: Not applicable (this study does not involve intervention on human participants).

Download Full-text

Reference genome and demographic history of the most endangered marine mammal, the vaquita

10.1101/2020.05.27.098582 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Phillip A. Morin ◽

Frederick I. Archer ◽

Catherine D. Avila ◽

Jennifer R. Balacco ◽

Yury V. Bukhman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Genome Assembly ◽

Marine Mammal ◽

Reference Genome ◽

Demographic History ◽

Mammalian Species ◽

Small Population ◽

Chromosome Length ◽

Rapid Decline ◽

History Of

AbstractThe vaquita is the most critically endangered marine mammal, with fewer than 19 remaining in the wild. First described in 1958, the vaquita has been in rapid decline resulting from inadvertent deaths due to the increasing use of large-mesh gillnets for more than 20 years. To understand the evolutionary and demographic history of the vaquita, we used combined long-read sequencing and long-range scaffolding methods with long- and short-read RNA sequencing to generate a near error-free annotated reference genome assembly from cell lines derived from a female individual. The genome assembly consists of 99.92% of the assembled sequence contained in 21 nearly gapless chromosome-length autosome scaffolds and the X-chromosome scaffold, with a scaffold N50 of 115 Mb. Genome-wide heterozygosity is the lowest (0.01%) of any mammalian species analyzed to date, but heterozygosity is evenly distributed across the chromosomes, consistent with long-term small population size at genetic equilibrium, rather than low diversity resulting from a recent population bottleneck or inbreeding. Historical demography of the vaquita indicates long-term population stability at less than 5000 (Ne) for over 200,000 years. Together, these analyses indicate that the vaquita genome has had ample opportunity to purge highly deleterious alleles and potentially maintain diversity necessary for population health.

Download Full-text

Estimation of Years of Life Lost by Sweden's Relaxed COVID-19 Mitigation Strategy

10.21203/rs.3.rs-125934/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Martin Rypdal ◽

Kristoffer Rypdal ◽

Ola Løvsletten ◽

Sigrunn Sørbye ◽

Elinor Ytterstad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Life Years ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Life Years Lost ◽

Expected Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive Model

Abstract Objective: To estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, and to estimate the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden and the significance of mortality displacement. Methods: We found expected mortality by taking the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality into account. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. Results: We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year (July to July) 2019/20 was 517 (95%CI -12, 1074) in Norway and 4329 (3331, 5325) in Sweden. There were reported 255 COVID-19 related deaths in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period March 11 – November 11, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. The estimated number of life-years lost attributed to the more relaxed Swedish strategy was 45850 (13915, 80276) without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43073 (12160, 85451) after adjusting for possible displacement.

Download Full-text

MOLECULAR DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY OF THE ANNUAL SUNFLOWERSHELIANTHUS ANNUUSANDH. PETIOLARIS-LARGE EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZES AND RATES OF LONG-TERM GENE FLOW

Evolution ◽

10.1111/j.1558-5646.2008.00415.x ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 62 (8) ◽

pp. 1936-1950 ◽

Cited By ~ 91

Author(s):

Jared L. Strasburg ◽

Loren H. Rieseberg

Keyword(s):

Gene Flow ◽

Demographic History ◽

Effective Population ◽

Population Sizes ◽

History Of

Download Full-text

Atypical Femoral Fracture in McCune-Albright Syndrome

Journal of Research in Orthopedic Science ◽

10.32598/jrosj.7.3.711.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 147-152

Author(s):

Salman Ghaffari ◽

◽

Mehran Razavipour ◽

Parastoo Mohammad Amini ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Femoral Fracture ◽

Dynamic Compression ◽

Plate Fixation ◽

Medullary Canal ◽

Mccune Albright Syndrome ◽

Café Au Lait Spots ◽

History Of ◽

Albright Syndrome ◽

Mccune Albright

McCune-Albright Syndrome (MAS) is characterized by endocrinopathies, café-au-lait spots, and fibrous dysplasia. Bisphosphonates are the most prescribed treatment for reducing the pain but their long-term use has been associated with atypical fractures of cortical bones like femur in patients. We present a 23-year-old girl diagnosed with MAS. She had an atypical mid-shaft left femoral fracture that happened during simple walking. She also had a history of long-term use of alendronate. Because of the narrow medullary canal, we used 14 holes hybrid locking plate for the lateral aspect of the thigh to fix the fracture and 5 holes dynamic compression plate (instead of the intramedullary nail) in the anterior surface to double fix it, reducing the probability of device failure. With double plate fixation and discontinuation of alendronate, the complete union was achieved five months after surgery

Download Full-text

European Integration

10.3366/edinburgh/9781474455893.001.0001 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Johann P. Arnason

Keyword(s):

European Integration ◽

Eastern European ◽

The European Union ◽

Historical Processes ◽

History Of ◽

External Conditions ◽

Eastern European Countries ◽

Totalitarian Regimes ◽

The Eu

Different understandings of European integration, its background and present problems are represented in this book, but they share an emphasis on historical processes, geopolitical dynamics and regional diversity. The introduction surveys approaches to the question of European continuities and discontinuities, before going on to an overview of chapters. The following three contributions deal with long-term perspectives, including the question of Europe as a civilisational entity, the civilisational crisis of the twentieth century, marked by wars and totalitarian regimes, and a comparison of the European Union with the Habsburg Empire, with particular emphasis on similar crisis symptoms. The next three chapters discuss various aspects and contexts of the present crisis. Reflections on the Brexit controversy throw light on a longer history of intra-Union rivalry, enduring disputes and changing external conditions. An analysis of efforts to strengthen the EU’s legal and constitutional framework, and of resistances to them, highlights the unfinished agenda of integration. A closer look at the much-disputed Islamic presence in Europe suggests that an interdependent radicalization of Islamism and the European extreme right is a major factor in current political developments. Three concluding chapters adopt specific regional perspectives. Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland, are following a path that leads to conflicts with dominant orientations of the EU, but this also raises questions about Europe’s future. The record of Scandinavian policies in relation to Europe exemplifies more general problems faced by peripheral regions. Finally, growing dissonances and divergences within the EU may strengthen the case for Eurasian perspectives.

Download Full-text