The Effect of Regional Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in North Sumatera

The aim of this research is to evaluate and provide new evidence of the influence of regional fiscal policy with government expenditure instruments and tax revenue on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. The data used are quarterly data from 2011: 1 to 2017: 4 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province (CSA). The analytical method used in this study is the error correction model (ECM) method. The findings of this study are that government expenditure (GE) has a positive and significant effect in the short and long term on the economic growth (PDB) of the province of North Sumatra during the study period. While tax revenue (TAX) in the long-run has a positive and significant effect, but in the short term, it has a positive but not significant effect on the economic growth (PDB) of the province of North Sumatra during the study period.

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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Does Fiscal Policy stimulate Economic Growth in Ethiopia? An ARDL Approach

10.21203/rs.3.rs-255756/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Solomon Tilahun Mengistu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Fiscal Policy ◽

Public Investment ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Private Investment ◽

Future Research ◽

Tax Revenue ◽

Annual Data ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run

Abstract Abstract In recent years, a vast literature has appeared on the relationship between fiscal policy and long-run economic growth. With the aim of give an overview of the recent discussion and establish a point of departure for future research, this study used time series techniques and used empirical model by Kneller et al (1999) and Bleaney et al (2000) to investigate the link between various components of fiscal policy on Ethiopia’s economic growth on annual data for the period 1985/86 – 2019. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag estimation technique. Results from the bound tests showed that there was a long-run relationship between the variables. Disaggregating government expenditure into productive and unproductive and tax revenue into distortionary and non-distortionary, this study found unproductive expenditure and non-distortionary tax revenue to be neutral to growth as predicted by economic theory. Moreover, productive expenditure has positive effect on growth while there was evidence of distortionary effects on growth of distortionary taxes. These results give right signal to policy makers in Ethiopia in formulating expenditure and tax policies to ensure unproductive expenditures are reduced while at the same time boosting public investment. Furthermore, there is need to encourage private investment in the country.

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Integration Rice Price And Farmers Welfare With Error Correction Model Analysis

Archives of Business Research ◽

10.14738/abr.79.7118 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. 221-228

Author(s):

Yogi Makbul

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Policy Intervention ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Rice Prices ◽

Support Policy

This research analyzes the short- and long-term influence of rice prices on the welfare of Indonesian farmers using an error correction model. Drawing upon data from Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics, it reveals that rice prices exert significant positive short-run effects and no significant long-run influence on farmers' welfare. These findings extend or refine results from earlier studies that lack the time series perspective of our research. They also support policy intervention by the Indonesian government to increase farmers' welfare and assure food supply.

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Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

Journal of Tax Reform ◽

10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 255-266

Author(s):

G. Ganchev ◽

◽

I. Todorov ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Tax Revenue ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

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Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

Economica Jurnal Ekonomi Islam ◽

10.21580/economica.2020.11.1.4907 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 107-128

Author(s):

Eba Ismi Alifah ◽

Anton Bawono

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Islamic Bank ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Government ◽

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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PENGARUH NON PERFORMING FINANCING, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, BEBAN OPERASIONAL PENDAPATAN OPERASIONAL DAN NET IMBALAN TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS (STUDI PADA BANK MAYBANK SYARIAH PERIODE 2012-2019)

Niqosiya: Journal of Economics and Business Research ◽

10.21154/niqosiya.v1i1.108 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 78-93

Author(s):

Lely Awintasari ◽

Maulida Nurhidayati

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Short Term ◽

Return On Assets ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽

Short And Long Term

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Operating Expenses operating income (BOPO) and Net Rewards (NI) ratio on Return On Assets of Maybank Syariah Bank. A bank's Return on Assets (ROA) is a ratio that shows the bank's success in making a profit. If the ROA obtained by a small bank as a result of the bank can suffer losses and hinder the growth of the bank. This research is a type of quantitative research with Error Correction Model method with a significance rate of 5%, with a total of 32 samples in the form of quarterly data published by Bank Maybank Syariah in 2012-2019. The findings in this study are that NPF negatively affects ROA in the short term but NPF has no effect on ROA in the long run. CAR has no effect on ROA in the short term but CAR has a positive effect on ROA in the long run. BOPO in the short and long term negatively affects ROA. NI in the short and long term has no effect on ROA. Simultaneously NPF, CAR, BOPO and NI both short-term and long-term affect ROA simultaneously. The amount of influence exerted in the short term is 89.20% while in the long term it is 88.57%. In order to increase ROA, Maybank Syariah Bank as much as possible to reduce the percentage of NPF and BOPO and can increase the CAR owned. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio kuangan Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO) dan Net Imbalan (NI) terhadap Return On Assets Bank Maybank Syariah. Return on Assets (ROA) suatu bank merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan keberhasilan bank dalam menghasilkan keuntungan. Apabila ROA yang diperoleh bank kecil akibatnya bank dapat mengalami kerugian serta menghambat pertumbuhan bank tersebut. Penelitian ini berjenis penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode Error Correction Model dengan tingkat signifikansi 5%, dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 32 yang berupa data triwulan yang dipublikasikan oleh Bank Maybank Syariah tahun 2012-2019. Temuan pada penelitian ini adalah NPF berpengaruh negatif pada ROA dalam jangka pendek tetapi NPF tidak berpengaruh pada ROA dalam jangka panjang. CAR tidak berpengaruh pada ROA pada jangka pendek namun CAR berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA dalam jangka panjang. BOPO dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif pada ROA. NI dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh pada ROA. Secara simultan NPF, CAR, BOPO dan NI baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh terhadap ROA secara simultan. Besarnya pengaruh yang diberikan pada jangka pendek adalah 89,20% sedangkan pada jangka panjang sebesar 88,57%. Untuk dapat meningkatkan ROA, Bank Maybank Syariah sebisa mungkin untuk menurunkan persentase NPF dan BOPO serta dapat meningkatkan CAR yang dimiliki.

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THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

Australian Journal of Business and Management Research ◽

10.52283/nswrca.ajbmr.20120212a07 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 02 (12) ◽

pp. 49-57

Author(s):

TAIWO AKINLO

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Causality Test ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

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PENGARUH KEKUATAN PASAR TERHADAP KECUKUPAN MODAL PADA BANK KONVENSIONAL DAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v1i1.5355 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 111

Author(s):

Yussi Ananda ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Dewi Zaini Putri

Keyword(s):

Market Power ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Islamic Banks ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Banking Market ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Conventional Banks

This study aims to find out how the Influence of Market Power on Capital Adequacy in Conventional and Islamic Banks in Indonesia in the long and short term. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2006: Q1 to 2016: Q4, with documentation data collection techniques and library studies obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. The variables used are Market Power, Deposits, Capital, Inflation and Economic Growth. The research methods used are: (1) Error Correction Model (ECM) Analysis, (2) Classical Assumption Test. The results of the study show that (1) Short-term paths of Conventional Bank Market Power are higher than Islamic banks. This means that in the short term the Konvensionsal Bank dominates the banking market in Indonesia. While in the long run Market Power in Islamic Banks is higher than Conventional Banks. So Islamic banks in the long run dominate the banking market in Indonesia. (2) In the short term and long term deposits at Conventional Banks are higher compared to Islamic Banks. So conventional banks in the short and long term can collect more banking funds in Indonesia. (3) In the short and long term capital in Islamic banks is higher than conventional banks. So Islamic banks in the short and long term dominate banking capital in Indonesia. (4) In the short and long term, inflation in conventional banks is higher compared to Islamic banks. So it can be said that conventional banks in the short and long term are influenced by inflationary shocks in Indonesia. (5) In the short-term and long-term economic growth in Islamic banks is higher than conventional banks. So it can be said that Islamic banks in the short and long term are influenced by the high and low level of Indonesia's economic growth.Keywords: Market Power, Capital Adequacy, Conventional and IslamicBanks, and Error Correction Model (ECM).

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The Effect Of The Ratio Of The Money Supply, The Ratio Of Bank Credit, And The Ratio Of Domestic Savings To Economic Growth In Malaysia

SPLASH Magz ◽

10.54204/splashmagzvol1no2pp12to16 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 12-16

Author(s):

Maria Garcia ◽

◽

Meinarti Puspaningtyas ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Money Supply ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Bank Credit ◽

Domestic Saving ◽

Correction Model ◽

Saving Ratio ◽

Domestic Savings ◽

Short And Long Term

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the money supply ratio, bank credit ratio, and domestic saving ratio on economic growth. both in the short and long term. Empirically, this study uses secondary data in the form of quarterly data during the 2008 - 2018 period with the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. We find that the money supply ratio, bank credit ratio, and domestic saving ratio have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Malaysia.

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Tax revenue, expenditure, and economic growth: An analysis of long-run relationships

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies ◽

10.24311/jabes/2017.24.3.02 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 24 (03) ◽

pp. 04-26

Author(s):

Lien Nguyen Phuong ◽

Thanh Su Dinh

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Method Of Moments ◽

Generalized Method Of Moments ◽

Tax Revenue ◽

Dynamic Panel ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

The Impact

Focusing on the investigation of “long-term” relationship between tax revenue, expenditure, and economic growth, this paper employs the Granger causality test and finds that the linkage between tax revenue and spending is a bi-directional causal correlation. Furthermore, applying Persyn and Westerlund’s (2008) co-integration test allows for corroboration of existence of long-run cointegration linkages among outcome of economy and the three variables. In addition, by adopting two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM) for a dynamic panel of 82 developed and developing countries during 16-year period (2000–2015), this research demonstrates that the impact of tax revenue and spending is substantial and ambiguous, depending on different groups of economies.

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