Prediction of the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Amapá State, Amazon Region, Brazil, by mathematical modeling
This article presents an analysis of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Amapá using three approaches. In the first, the ICL model for the pandemic applied to Brazil was used to implement a comparative linear projection for the Amapá population. The second approach was developed with the short-term solution of the standard SIR model where it was shown that the typical exponential behavior satisfactorily describes the data for the first weeks of the epidemic, but soon after there are early discrepancies due to a sudden slowdown in the temporal evolution number of cases due to isolation measures. This new regime is appropriately described with the third approach which is based on the vSIR model which is a variant of the SIR model. The results presented enable, on the one hand, a better understanding of the scenarios already faced by the population and on the other hand provide short-term projections that will be constantly updated on the link[11].