scholarly journals FEATURES OF MODELING AND FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANKING BUSINESS IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaryna Pas
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Indicator Variable ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
Simulative Model

The rapid dynamics of financial performance of banks leads to the study of the peculiarities of modeling and forecasting the development of the banking business. The negative trends of the global crisis and the spread of the pandemic are determined by the search for ways to maintain the efficient functioning of banks in the financial market. Modeling and forecasting the development of the banking business should be carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling, the main feature of which is the use of indirect knowledge with the help of artificially created objects – models. To better understand the importance of modeling the development of the banking business, it is appropriate to give an example, the development and application of the wrong strategy for the development of the banking business can lead to significant problems not only in this area, including reduced liquidity of the banking system, increased problem loans, increased risk. The model of banking business development is built, which includes six equations on the main macroeconomic indicators (equation of capital and reserves of banks, equation of total assets of banks, equation of bank loans, equation of bank income, equation of bank expenses, equation of gross domestic product of Ukraine). Links between the performance of the banking sector and environmental factors, to analyze the factors influencing the development of the banking business, to forecast the dynamics of these indicators in different scenarios of economic conditions in general and the banking business in particular. The analysis of the obtained results of evaluation of the equations of the simulative model of banking business development for 2020 allowed determining that each equation of the simulative model is adequate, because the coefficients of multiple determinations take values that are close to one, including exogenous variables. To obtain the forecast values of other exogenous variables of the simulative model (the value of direct investment in Ukraine and the volume of sold industrial products) was used the method of constructing trend models, which describe the dynamics of a particular indicator (variable) over time. The forecast values of exogenous variables of the simulative model of banking business development for the I–IV quarters of 2022 are constructed. The analysis of forecast accuracy indicators showed that the value of the average absolute error (MAPE) of the amount of capital and reserves of banks in 2022 does not exceed 10% for neutral and optimistic forecasts.

scholarly journals Bank Competition, Efficiency, and Stability in Macau

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Harry Xia ◽  
Kevin Lei ◽  
Jiaochen Liang
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Competition ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Bank Efficiency ◽  
Insolvency Risk ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Macau has the uppermost population density and the fourth-highest GDP per capita in the world. Macau’s banking system is regarded as one of the most important indicators of Macau’s macroeconomic growth and stability during its transformation into a wealthy and modern metropolis. In this study, we use a sample of 26 banks to explore the relationship of bank competition, efficiency and stability in Macau from its return to China in 1999 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that bank competition does cause efficiency in Macau throughout the study period. We also find indications of a positive but not significant connection between bank market power and bank fragility including income volatility and insolvency risk. Moreover, this study finds no evidence that the size of operations proxied by total bank loans and total assets would impact bank efficiency, indicating that economies of scale or bank market share don’t necessarily bring about efficiency in Macau. Our evidence contributes to the literature by being the first to thoroughly examine the relation of bank competition, efficiency and stability in Macau. The findings provide meaningful implications to the practitioners and policymakers to make sound decisions accordingly, especially to closely monitor and maintain a proper level of competition in Macau’s banking sector.

scholarly journals ANTI-CRISIS REGULATION OF BANKING BUSINESS: CASE OF AZERBAIJAN

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakhri Fuad Murshudli ◽  
◽  
Muslum Mursal Mursalov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Independent Field ◽  
Banking Activity ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Definition Of

The article examines the experience of the Republic of Azerbaijan (RA) in anti-crisis regulation of the banking sector. The author reveals the current state of the banking system of RA. Its development is monitored from three time perspectives – on the eve of the crisis (2005-2007), in the crisis (2008-2009) and post-crisis periods (2010-2020). The characteristics and features of each of them are revealed. The conceptual essence of the definition of “anti-crisis management” is revealed. The factors contributing to the study of anti-crisis management (regulation) of banking activity as an independent field of scientific research, as well as the distinctive features of its methods and tools are highlighted. The article analyzes the impact of anti-crisis regulation on the banking system of RA in the context of the global economic crisis, as well as anti-crisis measures taken by the country’s monetary authorities at various stages of the modern financial collapse. The authors concluded that these measures are inconsistent, and that it is necessary to further improve regulation and supervision in this area, aimed at achieving high financial stability of the banking system, primarily due to an adequate level of capitalization, optimal indicators of financial reserves and liquidity.

Influence of Macroeconomic Factors in Failure of Return of Bank Loans in Kosovo

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
Nagip Skenderi ◽  
Adem Dreshaj
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Crucial Issue ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Grace Period ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Maturity Period ◽  
Banking Business

Abstract The risk from non-payment of loans is a challenge for all the banks. Payment of the loans is a crucial issue for efficient functioning of the banking system. Loaning is one of the main uncertainties in the banking business, for loan payment can be rarely guaranteed completely. Often, a question occurs: what are the factors that influence in failure of the return of bank loan? What are the politics that must be followed to stimulate the return of bank loans? Through this research we aim to highlight the reasons of debtors in failing of loan return by studying the link of macroeconomic factors with NPL (non-performing loans). This is a first research in Kosovo that analyses the link of the macroeconomic factors influence (GDP, interest norms, unemployment, inflation, maturity period and grace period) these referred in the research as “independent variables” in failure of bank loan return that in the study bellow are referred as “dependent variable NPL for the Kosovo bank sector. This study argues as what is needed for the Kosovo banking system and presents the ideas of sustainable development of banking system in correspondence with non-performing loans, acknowledgment of the factors that hinder the return of the bank loans and reorientation of the loaning politics.

Methodological Approach to Assessing the Investment Attractiveness of the Industry for the Banking Sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 52-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Larionov
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Banking System ◽  
The State ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Real

This paper presents selected results of the study on improving information and methodological tools to increase the effectiveness of entrepreneur’s and state investment policy. Final result of this study - is developing guidelines for calculating the coefficient of investment attractiveness of the banking industry based on the physical theory of heat transfer. Classification of industries according to the degree of investment attractiveness allows to select the industries that will receive the least amount of resources from private investors. The least attractive sectors will be able to obtain public investment resources. For sectors with high investment attractiveness, public funds will only supplement the flow of free liquidity from the banking sector. The lack of liquidity in the real sector is compensated by attracting private funds, a significant share of which is in the banking sector. The real sector could also get the state investments. In this regard, it is important for the state and the banking sector to assess the industries from the position of the possibility of returning the funds, as well as obtaining additional income. The study presents guidelines for calculating the coefficient of investment attractiveness of the industry for the banking sector. The indicator takes into account both the distribution of bank loans in the economy by industry, and the expected profitability of lending, affecting the bank’s decision to issue a loan. Based on the analysis of theoretical concepts, it was demonstrated that the liquidity of the banking sector can be redistributed ≪freely≫ (due to market mechanisms) and ≪involuntarily≫ (through the implementation of state policy related to the direction of funds in certain sectors where there is a lack of resources). The study considers a methodological approach to the assessment of factors affecting the distribution of liquidity of the banking system in the real sector of the economy. The considered approach takes into account behavioral aspects of decision-making in the banking system.

scholarly journals The Role of Bank Loans and Deposits in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Malaysia

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salina Kassim ◽  
M. Shabri A. Majid
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Transmission Process ◽  
Bank Deposits

This study attempts to determine the importance of the banking sector in the monetary transmission process in a developing economy. The study analyzes the Malaysian data focusing on three sample periods: the entire sample period (1989:01-2006:12); the pre-crisis period (1989:01-1996:12); and the post-crisis period (1999:01-2006:12). To achieve this objective, the study relies on two tests: first, the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the long-run relationship among the variables and second, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis for the short-run relationship among the variables. The finding shows that both bank deposits and loans play crucial roles in the monetary transmission process in the economy, suggesting evidence for the money endogeneity theory of post-Keynesian economists. In particular, bank deposits and loans are shown to provide an important link from monetary policy to output. This underscores the importance of ensuring the soundness of banking system as a pre-requisite to economic stability in the absence of such market based tools as market-based actions on exchange rate or interest rates as monetary stabilisation tools.  

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF Z-SCORE FOR UKRAINIAN BANKING SYSTEM

10.23856/3003 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Bohdan Kyshakevych ◽  
Ivan Klymkovych
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Bank System

The article analyzes the problematic aspects of evaluating the financial stability of banking systems on the basis of the Z-score methodology. The econometric model estimation of Z-score for the Ukrainian banking system was constructed where the following indicators were chosen in role of explanatory variables:  the share of foreign capital in bank system, inflation, change in nominal GDP and share of overdue loans in credit portfolio. We have conducted the analysis of the banking sector in Ukraine on the base of the constructed Z-score model and determined macroeconomic factors that have the most significant impact on the Z-score assessment and banking system stability.  Drawbacks and limitations of the Z-score methodology usage in banking business are discussed.

scholarly journals Digital transformation of the banking sector of the economy of Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (3) ◽  
pp. 84-98
Author(s):  
Viktoriia KOVALENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Financial Education ◽  
Internet Banking ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Banking Services ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
Self Service

The article considers the main digital transformational changes in the banking business. The current state of banks' use of financial digital technologies is analyzed, and the factors of digital transformation that affect their financially stable development are singled out. It is determined that the digitalization of the world economy over the past decade has posed new challenges to the banking system, which are caused by increased competition in the financial services market. The factors of emergence of financial intermediaries of the new generation and the need for digital transformation of contemporary banks are described. It is proved that the digital transformation of the banking sector of the economy is due to the development of financial technologies, digital marketing channels and innovation. Three main holistic proposals for FinTech development have been identified. The digital transformation of the banking business is changing not only the supply to customers. It is changing the contours of the business and staffing requirements. Such tools as ATMs and self-service terminals, telephone banking, SMS banking, Internet banking and mobile banking represent the evolution of customer access channels to banking services based on the use of information and communication technologies. The article considers the basic scheme of transformation of a classical bank into a dynamic system of a digital bank by gradually forming the directions of digital distribution. Further digital transformational changes in the banking business should be aimed at the vectors of financial education of consumers of banking services, regulation of the cryptocurrency market in Ukraine, definition of common standards of regulation and supervision of banks and non-banking institutions in the area of digital financial services.

Customer Perception Towards Borrowing Bank Loans

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-45
Author(s):  
Chandra Sekhar Patro
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Quality Of Services ◽  
Customer Perception ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Almost All

In the present life of an individual finance is an important aspect. This finance is provided by banks to almost all the individuals and all types of business enterprises. Banks provide loans for agriculture, industry, trade, commerce and personal needs of individuals. The growth of banking sector has been highly depending on the needs of the customers, cost of service offered, level of income, repaying capacity, expectation of the customer and the service quality. The banking system is facing challenges with stiff competition and advancement of technology. It becomes imperative for service providers to meet or exceed the target customer's satisfaction with quality of services expected by them. Hence, the present study is an attempt to know the customers' perception towards different banks and the problems faced while borrowing the loans from the banks. It also throws light on the quality of services, both transaction based and IT enabled in terms of its constituent factors in public sector, private sector and foreign banks.

scholarly journals Organizational and financial mechanism for ensuring financial and economic security of the banking-system

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-255
Author(s):  
Natalia Riazanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Banking Secrecy ◽  
Financial Mechanism

an organizational and financial mechanism for ensuring the financial and economic security of a commercial bank is proposed, which, in real time and in situations that cannot be controlled using traditional methods, will minimize potential risks and change the internal institutional environment, positively affecting the financial and economic security of the country's banking system. It is shown that economic growth as a factor of national security is supported by the effective functioning of the banking system and the priority of long-term bank loans provided in the form of investments, which makes it possible to determine the relationship between the growth of the country's economy and the level of financial and economic security of the banking system. The main approaches to ensuring the financial and economic security of the banking system are considered, which include the structure of the primary interests of a commercial bank and indicators of the level of financial and economic security of the banking sector of Ukraine in order to ensure economic stabilization and strengthen the economic potential of the bank. It was noted that an adequate and fundamental marketing strategy will help to promote the growth of the bank's profitability, attract additional customers, form a resource base and reduce risk in banking. Mortgage lending is considered as the most effective tool for attracting funds from the population to the investment sector and meeting their needs for housing. A distinctive feature of the presented organizational and financial mechanism is the use of strategic management methods to form economic resources, improve the image and level of security of information systems, organize effective management of the bank's personnel, which will create conditions for ensuring the proper level of protection against negative factors and threats and increasing the competitiveness of the bank due to increasing the efficiency of the provision of banking services, preserving banking secrecy and the client base, creating new banking products

scholarly journals Rising Toll of Frauds in Banking: A Threat for the Indian Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha Sharma ◽  
Dhiraj Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Basic Process ◽  
Research Model ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Banking Business ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Relationship

Banking is a process which predicts the relationship between sources of funds and their application. The basic process of banking helps the society to bridge the gap between availability and usage of these available funds in a correct manner. Over the years the banks have developed in a very big way, and with the growth of banking business, banking frauds have taken birth. The history of banking frauds is almost as old as the banking startup. Today, bank frauds have taken all possible forms and are prevalent in every facet of banking. There is a spirited need for banks to always stay alive to threat of frauds, build strong systems that can shield, pre-empt frauds, continuously monitor and review the efficiency of such preventive systems. To succeed in controlling frauds, banks need to be proactive and pre-emptive. This study establishes a theoretical framework with regards to banking frauds in the Indian context as well as shows the picture of frauds in banking sector outside India. By reviewing various studies in the area of banking frauds the paper built a research model which further helps to find out various types of frauds and reasons for the same, and will definitely give new scope to further studies. The present study sheds light on the area by reviewing various studies in the field of banking frauds. The study helps to find out the growth and trends of frauds in the banking sector and specially focuses on Indian Banking sector, as at present there are very few studies which give an in-depth insight of frauds in banking sector. Further the study also reviews the role of employee and customer with regard to banking fraud studied which is primarily needed in the context of Indian Banking system. The present study is conducted by collecting secondary data from the published and unpublished Sources, Government Publications, journals, magazines, books and periodicals etc

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