scholarly journals Efektivitas Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional dalam Menopang Tingkat Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Kalimantan Selatan

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Yenie Purnomoratih
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Exponential Trend ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
Holding Back ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This article aims to analyze the effectiveness of National Economic Recovery program (Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional/PEN) in supporting the level of walfare in South Kalimantan. In measuring the level of effectiveness, the indicators used are Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and the Open Unemployment Rate. The methods used in this article are the modelling of the exponential trend and the ARIMA time series forecasting. The measurement result shows that the PEN program that has been implemented in 2020 effectively supported the GRDP level of South Kalimantan better than the prognosis of the condition without the implementation of the PEN program. The PEN program also effectively holding back the rate of increase in the open unemployment rate in South Kalimantan to 4.74 percent, compared to the estimated condition without the implementation of the PEN program, which is 5.19 percent. Abstrak Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efektivitas program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN) dalam menopang tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di Kalimantan Selatan. Indikator yang digunakan dalam mengukur tingkat efektivitas program PEN adalah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT). Metode yang digunakan dalam artikel ini adalah pemodelan Trend Eksponensial dan Forecasting Deret Waktu ARIMA. Hasil pengukuran menunjukkan bahwa program PEN tahun 2020 secara efektif menopang tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat Kalimantan Selatan sehingga mendorong tingkat PDRB Kalimantan Selatan jauh lebih baik dibandingkan dengan prognosis kondisi tanpa diimplementasikannya program PEN. Program PEN dapat menahan laju pertambahan angka pengangguran terbuka di Kalimantan Selatan menjadi 4,74 persen, dibandingkan perkiraan kondisi tanpa diimplementasikannya program PEN yaitu 5,19 persen.

scholarly journals Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional Sebagai Kebijakan Penanggulangan Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Pada Sektor UMKM

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-116
Author(s):  
Ratnawaty Marginingsih
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Recovery Program

Abstrak  Berbagai permasalahan yang terjadi pada UMKM terdampak pandemi cukup dirasakan oleh para pelaku usaha tersebut. Hal ini tentu saja berakibat pada penurunan keuntungan secara signifikan dikarenanakan tingkat produktivitas yang rendah. Langkah terkait pemulihan ekonomi, dalam hal ini pemerintah melalui kementrian keuangan membuat kebijakan luar biasa untuk memitigasi dampak covid-19 dan perlambatan ekonomi dengan membuat Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN).  Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penulisan ini adalah teknik analisis deskriptif kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menujukkan Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN) memiliki dampak positif bagi sektor UMKM pada masa pandemi covid-19 sebagai langkah kebijakan yang diambil oleh pemerintah untuk mendukung pemulihan perekonomian nasional khususnya sektor UMKM yang memiliki kontribusi cukup besar. Rekomendasi kebijkan penguatan UMKM tidak hanya pada masa pandemi tetapi juga pada masa pemulihan dan pasca pandemi sehingga percepatan pemulihan ekonomi nasional dapat mencapai kestabilannya. Kata Kunci: Program PEN, Kebijkan Pandemi, UMKM  Abstract - The various problems that occur in SMEs affected by the pandemic are quite felt by these business actors. This of course results in a significant reduction in profits due to low productivity levels. Steps related to economic recovery, in this case, the government through the ministry of finance, make extraordinary policies to mitigate the impact of covid-19 and the economic slowdown by creating the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN). The research method used in this paper is a qualitative descriptive analysis technique. The results of the study show that the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) has a positive impact on the MSME sector during the COVID-19 pandemic as a policy step taken by the government to support the recovery of the national economy, especially the MSME sector which has a significant contribution. Recommendations for strengthening MSME policies are not only during the pandemic but also during the recovery and post-pandemic period so that the acceleration of national economic recovery can achieve stability. Keywords: PEN Program, Pandemic Policy, MSME 

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Policy Responses to COVID-19: A Case of Indonesia

SENTRALISASI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 118
Author(s):  
Acwin Hendra Saputra ◽  
I Gede Agus Ariutama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Legal Certainty ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
The Impact

The health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 virus has spread to a multidimensional crisis and has a domino effect on the socio-economic and financial sectors. The economic crisis as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has become increasingly severe because it was accompanied by lockdown and physical distancing policies which resulted in decreasing productivity in the economy. The purpose of this research is to describe the structured efforts taken by the Government of Indonesia in dealing with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The policy combination adopted by the Government of Indonesia is in the form of policies to issue a series of regulations providing legal certainty and flexibility while still highlighting the accountability. Refocusing and budget reallocation are also taken by the government to provide more flexible space for Ministries/Institutions to contribute to managing the impact of COVID-19. Another policy is the issuance of three stimulus packages and the launch of the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN).

Strong α-cut and associated membership-based modeling for fuzzy time series forecasting

2020 ◽  
pp. 2050067
Author(s):  
Gunjan Goyal ◽  
Dinesh C. S. Bisht
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Fuzzy Logical

In this paper, a method is proposed to deal with factors affecting the fuzzy time series forecasting. A new fuzzification process is used by considering all the fuzzy sets with nonzero membership values corresponding to the data points. A strong alpha-cut based method is presented to select appropriate fuzzy logical relationships that carry importance in analyzing the trend of time series. Further, a unique defuzzification approach based on weights is proposed to get crisp variation. This obtained variation is finally converted to the forecasted value. The presented method is tested on the benchmark enrolment dataset of Alabama University and seven datasets of the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index. On comparing the results, it is observed that the presented method performs better than the existing methods. Also, the statistical measures indicate the good forecasting results of the presented method.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Supervised Multi-Period Time Series Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 74-86
Author(s):  
Galina Ilieva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Training Phase ◽  
Fuzzy Input ◽  
Multidimensional Matrix ◽  
Historical Periods ◽  
Better Than

Abstract The goal of this paper is to propose a new method for fuzzy forecasting of time series with supervised learning and k-order fuzzy relationships. In the training phase based on k previous historical periods, a multidimensional matrix of fuzzy dependencies is constructed. During the test stage, the fitted fuzzy model is run for validating the observations and each output value is predicted by using a fuzzy input vector of k previous intervals. The proposed algorithm is verified by a benchmark dataset for fuzzy time series forecasting. The results obtained are similar or better than those of other fuzzy time series prediction methods. Comparative analysis shows the high potential of the new algorithm as an alternative to fuzzy prediction and reveals some opportunities for its further improvement.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAM ON MSME PRODUCTIVITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-120
Author(s):  
Khotim Fadhli ◽  
Zuni Miftakhur Rohmah
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Tax Incentive ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Increase Productivity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
Research Analysis ◽  
Economic Recovery Program

This study aims to analyze the effect of the national economic recovery program (PEN) in Indonesia in an effort to increase productivity for MSME actors due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The economic sector, which has also been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, has resulted in many MSMEs experiencing a decline in turnover, even going bankrupt. So the government makes programs through the national economic recovery policy (PEN) to overcome the problems faced by MSMEs. This research is a quantitative research, with the population in the study are all MSMEs in the Gudo Manik-Manik Center, Jombang Regency, which then determined a sample of 73 respondents using the slovin formula. The sampling technique used was probability sampling with the random sampling method, because taking all the population, namely MSME Gudo Manik-Manik Center, had the same opportunity to become respondents. Data was taken using a questionnaire. The research analysis used is multiple linear regression using SPSS 26. The results of the study state that, the tax incentive which is an economic recovery program (PEN) has no effect on the productivity of MSMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic at the Manik-Manik Gudo Jombang Center. Meanwhile, loan restructuring, which is an economic recovery program (PEN) has a significant impact on MSME productivity during the Covid-19 pandemic at the Gudo Manik-Manik Center. Simultaneously, tax incentives and loan restructuring, which are part of the economic recovery program (PEN) have a significant influence on the productivity of MSMEs during the Covid-19 pandemic at the Gudo Manik-Manik Center, Jombang.

scholarly journals Menakar Kelayakan Pinjaman Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN) Daerah pada Kabupaten Bone Bolango

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-135
Author(s):  
William Indra S. Mooduto ◽  
Abdul Wahab Podungge ◽  
Muliyani Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Coverage Ratio ◽  
National Economic ◽  
General Revenue ◽  
Eligibility Requirements ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
Economic Recovery Program

This study aims to assess the feasibility of regional national economic recovery loans (PEN) in Bone Bolango Regency, by analyzing 4 (four) indicators of eligibility requirements for granting Regional PEN Loans, namely (1) the area is affected by Covid 19; (2) have a Regional Economic Recovery program or activity that supports the National Economic Recovery program; (3) The remaining amount of the loan plus the amount of the loan to be withdrawn does not exceed 75 percent of the general revenue of the previous year's Regional Government Budget; (4) meet the ratio of regional financial capacity to repay regional loans of at least 2.5 percent.The first and second indicators were tested using desk study analysis. then the third and fourth indicators are tested by analyzing the financial statements of the Bone Bolango Regency in 2020 and calculating the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) to assess the ability of the region to repay loans. The results showed that Bone Bolango Regency deserved a regional loan from the Central Government. This is because Bone Bolango fulfills 4 (four) loan requirements for the national economic recovery area.

scholarly journals Review Review of National Economic Recovery Program in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-90
Author(s):  
Angling Nugroho Kemenangan ◽  
Lisno Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Good Governance ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Government Programs ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Data Coordination ◽  
Financial Impacts ◽  
Recovery Program ◽  
Economic Recovery Program

The escalation of Covid-19 and the sharp economic slowdown and tremendous disruption in various aspects of life, especially health, social, economic and financial impacts must be mitigated on the public welfare through extraordinary policies. The Covid-19 response and economic recovery program is an extremely important program designed in an atmosphere of emergency / urgency. Speed ​​is very important, but on the other hand, accountability, transparency and good governance principles should not be ignored. In the midst of an emergency situation in handling Covid-19, especially the PEN program, many government programs in their implementation require very fast, urgent and massive handling, which of course must be followed by strengthening good governance, through the application of the principles of prudence, accountability and transparency. The results of the review show that in the implementation of the PEN program there are problems with regulations, budget, data, coordination and technical implementation, monitoring and evaluation, and information technology. These constraints are related to one another. Based on references to evaluations of governments, institutions, and best practices in countries that have successfully implemented the program, the authors present solutions related to these problems.

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