Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar

Population Distributions ◽

Conservation Actions ◽

The impact of climate change on Malagasy amphibians remains poorly understood. Equally, deforestation, fragmentation, and lack of connectivity between forest patches may leave vulnerable species isolated in habitat that no longer suits their environmental or biological requirements. We assess the predicted impact of climate change by 2085 on the potential distribution of a Critically Endangered frog species, the golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca), that is confined to a small area of the central rainforest of Madagascar. We identify potential population distributions and climatically stable areas. Results suggest a potential south-eastwardly shift away from the current range and a decrease in suitable habitat from 2110 km2 under current climate to between 112 km2 – 138 km2 by the year 2085 – less than 7 % of currently available suitable habitat. Results also indicate that the amount of golden mantella habitat falling within protected areas decreases by 86 % over the same period. We recommend research to ascertain future viability and the feasibility of expanding protection to newly identified potential sites. This information can then be used in future conservation actions such as habitat restoration, translocations, re introductions or the siting of further wildlife corridors or protected areas.

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0238669 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. e0238669

Author(s):

Abraham Eustace ◽

Luíz Fernando Esser ◽

Rudolf Mremi ◽

Patrick K. Malonza ◽

Reginald T. Mwaya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Habitat Destruction ◽

Critically Endangered ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Area Network ◽

Pet Trade ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km2. The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

10.1101/2020.08.24.264796 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Abraham Eustace ◽

Luíz Fernando Esser ◽

Rudolf Mremi ◽

Patrick K. Malonza ◽

Reginald T. Mwaya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Habitat Destruction ◽

Critically Endangered ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Area Network ◽

Pet Trade ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

ABSTRACTWhile the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60 - 401,179.70 km2. The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.

Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12001

Author(s):

Jinbo Fu ◽

Linlin Zhao ◽

Changdong Liu ◽

Bin Sun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

Public Attention ◽

Sousa Chinensis ◽

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

Impact of Climate Change on Three Indicator Galliformes Species in The Northern Highlands of Pakistan

10.21203/rs.3.rs-980782/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Babar Zahoor ◽

Xuehua Liu ◽

Melissa Songer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Forested Landscapes ◽

The Impact ◽

Northern Highlands

Abstract Global temperatures are predicted to rise from between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 21st century, which could result in a 20 to 30% extinction of species. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) all the three species would be negatively affected by the climate change in 2050 and in 2070. (ii) Under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (iii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to lose over one quarter in 2050 and one-third by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iv) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 m to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily >3000 m in the future. The proposed implications such as establishment and upgradation of the protected areas, ban on hunting, timber mafia and temporary settlements of the local people in the forested landscapes should be under special consideration to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Diversity ◽

10.3390/d12080312 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 312

Author(s):

Alexandra Evans ◽

Sam Janssens ◽

Hans Jacquemyn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Dynamics ◽

Abiotic Factors ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Orchid Species ◽

Population Demographic ◽

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

10.1101/2020.05.04.076562 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ayush Adhikari ◽

Deep Narayan Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Endangered Species ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Rhinoceros Unicornis ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Potential Impact ◽

AbstractAbrupt change in climate or simply termed as climate change is considered to be one of the major challenges in biodiversity. Change in climate has impacted many species around the world, particularly threatened species like One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis). Rhinoceros unicornis is placed as an endangered species by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Being an endangered species, studies regarding the impact of climate on the distribution of Rhinoceros unicornis is very rare in Nepal. Thus, the present study focuses on identifying the potential impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in Nepal using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). For this, we used the present climatic scenarios and two greenhouse concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two different time periods (2050 and 2070) using different bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated the loose of the suitable habitat of Rhincoeros unicornis by 51.87% and 56.54% in RCP 4.5 for year 2050 and 2070 respectively. Under RCP 8.5 for year 2050 and 2070, the model demonstrated the loose of present suitable habitat by 54.25% and 49.51% respectively. Likewise, our result also predicted elevation as an important bioclimatic variable. This study would provide an information to the policy makers, conservationist and government officer of Nepal for the management and protection of habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in present and future climatic context.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of Agamura persica (Dumeril, 1856) (Squamata: Gekkonidae) in Iran

Belgian Journal of Zoology ◽

10.26496/bjz.2017.11 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 147 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Sayyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani ◽

Mansour Aliabadian ◽

Eskandar Rastegar-Pouyani ◽

Jamshid Darvish

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Vegetation Type ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ecological Data ◽

Central Plateau ◽

Species distribution modeling is an important tool that uses ecological data to aid in biological conservation. In the present study we used prediction methods, including maximum entropy (Maxent), to project the distribution of the Persian Spider gecko and the impact of climate change on its distribution in Iran. The results were consistent between models and indicated that two of the most important variables in determining distribution of Agamura persica are mean temperature of the wettest quarter and temperature seasonality. All of the models used in this study obtained high area-under-the-curve (AUC) values. Because of the nocturnal behavior of the species, these variables can directly affect species’ activity by determining the vegetation type in habitat. Suitable habitats of Agamura persica were in two locations in eastern Iran and a third location in the central plateau. Habitat suitability for this species was increased in the last glacial maximum (LGM), at which time most parts of the Iranian Plateau were suitable (even southwest Iran). However, the suitable habitat area is restricted to the central part of the plateau in the current period. Predictions from four scenarios indicate that future habitat suitability will be patchy and that the central part of the plateau will remain the most important part of the species distribution.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the quality of ground water – case study of a coal enriched environment in Enugu Urban

WABER 2019 Conference Proceedings ◽

10.33796/waberconference2019.37 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ground Water ◽

Enriched Environment ◽

Technical and technological aspects of development and testing of new machinery and technologies for agriculture of Ukraine ◽

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

10.31473/2305-5987-2020-2-27(41)-15 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

N. Maidanovych ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Soil Surface ◽

Winter Period ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Resource Saving ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Average Annual Temperature ◽

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.