scholarly journals Application of the method of forecasting in political history

10.33287/1191 ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 6-16
Author(s):  
В. М. Калашников ◽  
І. С. Накашидзе

The article is devoted to the research of the use of the forecasting method. Examples of the application of this method in historical science of the Middle Ages, the Renaissance and modern times are given. The significance of the forecasting method for the formation of a national idea and consciousness in the United States is given. The historical development of the United States provides ample opportunities for scientifically based prediction of the future fate of the leading world. Historical studies use such pairs of methods as reversing and presenting forecast and eschatology and futurology. It is determined that methods of reversible and predictive forecasting can yield data that fill the gaps in historical sources. The forecasting method is often associated with an analogy, which in the broadest sense is the basis of science. Areas of sharing the methods of forecasting and analogy from inventive activity to political technologies and to stimulating the creative process. The method of forecasting can be applied not only in scientific, but also in pedagogical work during the teaching of historical disciplines. The method of analogy in connection with forecasting in the educational process should be used in considering the issues of the formation and decline of Ukrainian statehood.

2021 ◽  
pp. 155708512199321
Author(s):  
Ting Wang

In this paper, I propose a new theory that ascribes the increasing female crime share to unequal emancipatory advancement between women’s ideological aspirations and institutional means in modern times. Accordingly, it is proposed that an incommensurate pace in progression inflicts gender-specific deprivation on women, which increases their share of crime. The theory is tested with Uniform Crime Reporting data from 1980 to 2017 across offense types. The findings indicate that mismatched liberation increases the female share of violent and property crimes, especially for adult cohorts and among samples after 1988 when women’s ends-means gap was found to be enlarged.


2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
J. Barrie Ross

Objective: On the premise that historical background makes the present more understandable, this review covers the origins of Western dermatology from its Greek and Roman origins through the Middle Ages to the defining moments in the late eighteenth century. Background and Conclusion: The development of major European centers at this time became the background for future centers in the eastern United States in the midnineteenth century and, finally, to the West Coast of the United States and Canada by the midtwentieth century.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 184
Author(s):  
Svitlana S. Hodzhal

The purpose of the article is to characterize Mark Antonovichʼs activities at the Ukrainian Free Academy of Sciences (USA) as President of the UAN and to determine his contribution to the development of the Academy. Methods of research: historical-typological, historical-genetic, historical-system. Main results: An important contribution to the development and preservation of Ukrainian historical science can be considered the work of researchers in the scientific institutions of the diaspora in the twentieth century. The article analyzes the scientific and organizational work of Marko Dmytrovych Antonovych as an active member of the Ukrainian Free Academy of Sciences (UVAN). Marko Dmytrovych joined the scientific institution at the beginning of its foundation. The researcher took an active part in scientific conferences and fruitfully co-operated in the first group of History and Early History with auxiliary sciences, where Marko Antonovych served as secretary. After being elected President by the UVAN in the United States, he devoted himself entirely to the work of the organization. The scientist was in this position during 1992–1997. As the President of UVAN, M. Antonovych participated in the organization of scientific conferences speaking up with the reports. In addition, he was engaged in editing and preparing for the publication of scientific publications. During this period, under the auspices of UIA under the editorship or with the introductory word of M. Antonovych nine editions were published. On his initiative, the reorganization and modernization of the archive and library began. It was planned to inventory library and archival funds, the recruitment of a professional librarian and the purchase of a computer for the introduction of an electronic catalog (including the creation of e-mail). In addition, it was suggested to contact US and Canadian universities to collaborate on microfilming and preservation of some of the most valuable book and archive funds. It was during the presidency of Marko Dmytrovych that an agreement was signed on cooperation between the Ukrainian Free Academy of Sciences in the USA and the T. H. Shevchenko Institute of Literature of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for ten years (1997-2007), the active cooperation of the Institute with UVAN in Canada, the Historical and Philological Section of NTSh and NTSh in Lviv, the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, the Ukrainian Research Institute of Harvard University, the Harriman Institute and other academic institutions in America, Europe and Canada. UVAN occupied an important place in the organization of scientific life in the diaspora. Marko Antonovych, being a full member, and later also the President of the Academy, greatly contributed to the development of historical science. Thanks to his hard work, collections of archival materials and works by renowned scholars were published. His efforts to reorganize the archives and libraries also had a positive impact on the organization of the scientific activity of the UVAN, and, consequently, on the whole historical science. Practical significance: recommended for use in studying the activities of the Ukrainian diaspora, the work of scientific institutions abroad. Originality: A generalization of UAV activities in the United States was used during the period 1992–1997. Scientific novelty: documents from the UIT archive (Ukraine) and the UVAN archive (USA) were used for the first time. Article type: analitycal.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Ewa Gmurzyńska

<p class="Normalny1">This article presents a history and development of the institution of justices of the peace in the United States from the beginning of formation of American democracy until modern times. It presents jurisdiction, the scope of the activities and the role of justices of the peace in several states through different periods of times. It includes a thorough discussion concerning pros and cons of justices of the peace in the U.S. legal system and general tendency of declining the institution of justices of the peace in modern times. The article includes also a discussion of the major court decisions concerning justices of the peace.</p>


1972 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-327
Author(s):  
José Duarte de Araújo

The concepts of "rights" and of "right to health care" including its evolution in modern times are discussed. The consequences of implementing this right are discussed in economic terms, regarding the situation in the United States of America. A discussion is also included on the limitations of the role of Health Insurance as a measure to solve the problem of providing health care for all individuals.


2002 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genniver C. Bell ◽  
Enid B. Jones ◽  
Joseph F. Johnson

Educational reform efforts in the United States have produced little sustainable results. Reformers are quick to impose standards and to label schools and the students they serve. Yet, they rarely acknowledge the serious inequities and inequalities found throughout the educational process. This article seeks to present a more comprehensive view of the collective disparities found in the American educational system, with the idea that “leaving no child behind” requires a serious attempt at leveling the playing field. Inherent in this presentation is the notion that reform efforts that produce real change must begin with public policy that acknowledges and removes the faults and errors of the system.


1956 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-507
Author(s):  
Francis Dvornik

Interest in Slavic and mid-European studies,* so long neglected, is growing considerably in the United States. Unfortunately it concentrates mostly on modern history. In Slavic studies, too much time is often devoted to the history of Russia since the Revolution, and to the analysis of the new social and political order established in that country under the influence of non-Slavic social ideas which had originated in the West, and especially in Germany (K. Marx and Lasalle) in the nineteenth century. The earlier evolution of Russia, other Slav nations, and their mid-European neighbors, is still undeservedly neglected. It is a mistake. In the Middle Ages, the Slavic nations, the Hungarians, and the Rumanians played a prominent role in the civilizing of Europe. The memories of their glorious past helped the Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Serbs, Bulgars, Magyars, Rumanians and also the small Albanian nation to survive the difficult period of oppression by foreign rulers and inspired their national leaders in their fight for independence and freedom.


1994 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent H. Smith ◽  
Hayley H. Chouinard ◽  
Alan E. Baquet

Using yield data for a sample of 123 dryland wheat producers in Montana, the effects of three area yield contracts, including the contract currently offered by the United States Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and two individual yield contracts on individual farm yield variability, are examined. The results indicate that while the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation area yield contract provides all farmers in the sample with some protection against yield variability, a simpler, actuarially equivalent “almost ideal” area yield contract provides substantially larger reductions in yield variability. However, actuarially equivalent individual yield contracts provide levels of protection against yield variability similar to those obtained under the “almost ideal” area yield contract at much lower premiums.


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