scholarly journals Local Weather Explains Annual Variation In Northern Goshawk Reproduction In the Northern Great Basin, USA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allyson B. Bangerter ◽  
Eliana R. Heiser ◽  
Jay D. Carlisle ◽  
Robert A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Basin ◽  
Prey Availability ◽  
Northern Goshawk ◽  
South Central ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Northern Utah ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Projected Changes

ABSTRACT Weather is thought to influence raptor reproduction through effects on prey availability, condition of adults, and survival of nests and young; however, there are few long-term studies of the effects of weather on raptor reproduction. We investigated the effects of weather on Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; henceforth goshawk) breeding rate, productivity, and fledging date in south-central Idaho and northern Utah, USA. Using data from 42 territories where we found evidence of breeding attempts in ≥1 yr from 2011–2019, we analyzed breeding rates using 315 territory–season combinations, analyzed productivity for 134 breeding attempts, and analyzed fledging date for 118 breeding attempts. We examined 35 predictor variables from four categories: precipitation, temperature, wind, and snowpack. Of the variables we evaluated, April precipitation, previous year's April–July precipitation, April–May mean temperature, and March–May mean temperature were related to measures of goshawk reproduction. Greater April–July precipitation in the previous year and lower April precipitation in the current year were associated with higher breeding rates. Years with warmer average April–May temperatures were associated with increased goshawk productivity. Years with greater April–July precipitation during the previous year and lower mean March–May temperatures were associated with later fledging dates. Based on these relationships, we considered projected changes in weather in the northern Great Basin over the next 50 yr as a result of climate change (without directly accounting for habitat changes caused by climate change), and predicted that climate change will: (a) have no significant effect on goshawk breeding rate, (b) have a positive effect on goshawk productivity, and (c) cause a shift toward earlier goshawk breeding. Our results indicate that weather is significantly related to goshawk reproduction in the northern Great Basin, and we suggest that the relationship between raptor breeding and weather be further investigated to enable higher resolution predictions of how changes in the climate may influence their populations, particularly changes that may not have been captured by our study.

scholarly journals Aeroallergens and Climate Change in Tulsa, Oklahoma: Long-Term Trends in the South Central United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Estelle Levetin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Pollen Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
The South ◽  
South Central ◽  
Pollen Types ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Total Pollen

Climate change is having a significant effect on many allergenic plants resulting in increased pollen production and shifts in plant phenology. Although these effects have been well-studied in some areas of the world, few studies have focused on long-term changes in allergenic pollen in the South Central United States. This study examined airborne pollen, temperature, and precipitation in Tulsa, Oklahoma over 25 to 34 years. Pollen was monitored with a Hirst-type spore trap on the roof of a building at the University of Tulsa and meteorology data were obtained from the National Weather Service. Changes in total pollen intensity were examined along with detailed analyses of the eight most abundant pollen types in the Tulsa atmosphere. In addition to pollen intensity, changes in pollen season start date, end date, peak date and season duration were also analyzed. Results show a trend to increasing temperatures with a significant increase in annual maximum temperature. There was a non-significant trend toward increasing total pollen and a significant increase in tree pollen over time. Several individual taxa showed significant increases in pollen intensity over the study period including spring Cupressaceae and Quercus pollen, while Ambrosia pollen showed a significant decrease. Data from the current study also indicated that the pollen season started earlier for spring pollinating trees and Poaceae. Significant correlations with preseason temperature may explain the earlier pollen season start dates along with a trend toward increasing March temperatures. More research is needed to understand the global impact of climate change on allergenic species, especially from other regions that have not been studied.

scholarly journals Aircraft Takeoff Performance in a Changing Climate for Canadian Airports

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 418
Author(s):  
Yijie Zhao ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Minimum ◽  
Weight Restriction ◽  
South Central ◽  
Aircraft Performance ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Projected Changes

Temperature and wind are major meteorological factors that affect the takeoff and landing performance of aircraft. Warmer temperatures and the associated decrease in air density in future climate, and changes to crosswind and tailwind, can potentially impact aircraft performance. This study evaluates projected changes to aircraft takeoff performance, in terms of weight restriction days and strong tailwind and crosswind occurrences, for 13 major airports across Canada, for three categories of aircraft used for long-, medium- and short-haul flights. To this end, two five-member ensembles of transient climate change simulations performed with a regional climate model, for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, are analyzed. Results suggest that the projected increases in weight restriction days associated with the increases in daily maximum temperatures vary with aircraft category and airfield location, with larger increases noted for airfields in the south central regions of Canada. Although avoiding takeoff during the warmest period of the day could be a potential solution, analysis focused on the warmest and coolest periods of the day suggests more weight restriction hours even during the coolest period of the day, for these airfields. Though RCP8.5 in general suggests larger changes to weight restriction hours compared to RCP4.5, the differences between the two scenarios are more prominent for the coolest part of the day, as projected changes to daily minimum temperatures occur at a much faster rate for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5, and also due to the higher increases in daily minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. Both increases and decreases to crosswind and tailwind are projected, which suggest the need for detailed case studies, especially for those airfields that suggest increases. This study provides useful preliminary insights related to aircraft performance in a warmer climate, which will be beneficial to the aviation sector in developing additional analysis and to support climate change adaptation-related decision-making.

Reconciling global projections of precipitation with CMIP6 and CMIP5 multi-model trends

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Trancoso ◽  
Jozef Syktus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Seasonal Time Series ◽  
The World ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Trends

<p>Changing precipitation patterns due to climate change is a critical concern affecting society and the environment. Projected changes in global seasonal precipitation are largely heterogeneous in space, time, magnitude and direction. Therefore, reconciling projected future precipitation is pivotal for climate change science and adaptation and mitigation schemes.</p><p>This research contributes to disentangle future precipitation uncertainty globally by exploring long-term trends in projected seasonal precipitation of 33 CMIP5 and 16 CMIP6 models for the period 1980-2100. We first estimate trend slopes and significance in long-term future seasonal precipitation using the Sen-Slope and Mann-Kendall tests and constrain trends with at least 10% of cumulative changes over the 120-year period. Then, we assess convergence in the direction of trends across seasons. We highlight the world’s jurisdictions with consistent drying and wetting patterns as well as the seasonal dominance of precipitation trends.</p><p>A consistent drying pattern – where at least 78% of GCMs have decreasing precipitation trends – was observed in Central America, South and North Africa, South Europe, Southern USA and Southern South America. Unlike, a strong convergence in projected long-term wetness – where at least 78% of GCMs have increasing precipitation trends – was observed across most of Asia, Central Africa, Northern Europe, Canada, Northern US and South Brazil and surrounds.</p><p>Results show convergence in direction of seasonal precipitation trends revealing the world’s jurisdictions more likely to experience changes in future precipitation patterns. The approach is promisor to summarize trends in seasonal time-series from multiple GCMs and better constrain wetting and drying precipitation patterns. This study provides meaningful insights to inform water resource management and climate change adaptation globally.</p>

scholarly journals Solar-Climatic Relationship and Implications for Hydrology

2001 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Cintia Uvo ◽  
Minoru Matsumoto ◽  
Kenji Jinno ◽  
Akira Kawamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
Observation Point ◽  
Single Observation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
To Come ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Low Dimensional

Research during the latest years has indicated a significant connection between climate and solar activity. Specifically, a relationship between Northern Hemisphere air temperature and sunspot cycle length (SCL) has been shown. By using monthly SCL and land air temperature from 1753-1990 (238 years) we show that this relationship also holds for a single observation point in south of Sweden. Using data after 1850 yields a statistically significant linear correlation of 0.54 between SCL and mean temperature. Furthermore, we show that there are indications of a low-dimensional chaotic component in both SCL and the interconnected mean land air temperature. This has important implications for hydrology and water resources applications. By pure definition of chaos this means that it is virtually impossible to make long-term predictions of mean temperature. Similarly, because of the strong connection between temperature and many hydrological components, it is probable that also long-term water balance constituents may follow chaotic trajectories. Long-term projections of water resources availability may therefore be impossible. Repeated short-term predictions may however, still be viable. We exemplify this by showing a technique to predict interpolated mean temperature 6 and 12 months ahead in real time with encouraging results. Improving the technique further may be possible by including information on the SCL attractor. To summarize, research into the possible existence of chaotic components in hydrological processes should be an important task for the next years to come.

Paleoecology of an Early Holocene Wetland on the Canadian Prairies

2005 ◽  
Vol 57 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Boyd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Succession ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Wetland Plant ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
South Central ◽  
Plant Assemblage ◽  
Scirpus Validus ◽  
Menyanthes Trifoliata

AbstractA plant macrofossil record from the glacial Lake Hind basin is used to reconstruct early postglacial wetland plant succession and paleohydrology. Between >10.6 and 9.1 ka BP, there are four plant assemblage zones: (1) an early (>10.6 ka BP) zone dominated by Cyperaceae and aquatics; (2) a subsequent zone (~10.6-10.1 ka BP) with emergents (Menyanthes trifoliata,Potentilla palustris,Scirpus validus) and fewer aquatic plants; (3) an interval between ~10.1 and 9.8 ka BP dominated byDrepanocladus aduncus; and (4) a zone between ~9.8 and 9.1 ka BP withMenyanthes trifoliataandEquisetum.These data indicate a gradual decline in water depth between 10.6 and 10.1 ka BP due to deepening of one or more outlets of glacial Lake Hind. From ~10.6 to 9.1 ka BP, the importance ofMenyanthesrecords pronounced, seasonal, flooding. Furthermore, lack of evidence for complete drawdown and terrestrialization in the basin – despite local and regional evidence for postglacial warming – indicates that this wetland was minimally impacted by climate change up to at least 9.1 ka BP. Persistence of very wet conditions locally is consistent with recent results from south-central Saskatchewan, and may be due to release of meltwater from stagnant ice. However, frequent low-energy flooding of the basin by the Souris River is more plausible. In general, the apparent insensitivity of aquatic habitats to abrupt climate change in some locales on the Canadian Prairies demonstrates the potential long-term mitigating effects of local hydrological factors.

Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

2018 ◽  
Vol 156 (9) ◽  
pp. 1061-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Sujetovienė ◽  
R. Velička ◽  
A. Kanapickas ◽  
Z. Kriaučiūnienė ◽  
D. Romanovskaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Barley ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetative Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Phenological Phases

AbstractThough the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Adaptation to climate change in Kazakhstan using data from space monitoring of snowmelt

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Aknur Zholdasbek ◽  
Azamat Kauazov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Seasonal Snow Cover

The present article is concerned with the applied aspects of applying the results of space monitoring of snow cover, in particular, it is proposed to present the results of the analysis in the form of specialized bulletins. The purpose of this publication is to present the available results of space monitoring of snow cover in Kazakhstan as an element of adaptation to climate change. A three-level system of space monitoring of snow cover is proposed, which includes three technological complexes: operational mapping of snow cover boundaries; monitoring of seasonal snow cover dynamics; analysis of long-term snow cover dynamics. A map of snow melting in Kazakhstan in 2020, the dynamics of long-term changes of snow covered area, as well as methods for analyzing the spatial- temporal distribution of snow cover and formats of special bulletins are presented. It is most appropriate to present the results of space monitoring of snow cover in a complex, maximally generalized form (product). The results of the work can be applied in the scientific, industrial and educational spheres to adapt and increase resistance.

Human Behavioral Ecology and Historical Contingency: A Comment on the Diablo Canyon Archaeological Record

2010 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 679-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Hildebrandt ◽  
Kelly R. McGuire ◽  
Jeffrey S. Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Behavioral Ecology ◽  
Human Behavioral Ecology ◽  
Single Site ◽  
Costly Signaling ◽  
Historical Contingency ◽  
South Central ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Resource Patches ◽  
Hunting And Fishing

Using data from a single site along the central California coast (CA-SLO-2), Jones et al. (2008) critique our use of human behavioral ecology to explain changing hunting and fishing adaptations in prehistoric California and the Great Basin. Instead, they argue that human adaptations tend to stay relatively stable over time until they are influenced by historical contingencies. We question the utility of using data from a single site, and expand the sample with information from several deposits along the south-central coast. This expanded sample documents a dynamic evolutionary sequence characterized by increasing residential stability accompanied by hunting and fishing in more distant resource patches. Access to these patches, both terrestrial and marine, was made possible by changes in social organization and technology. Many of these behaviors appear to have incurred high costs, and are potentially explained with reference to costly signaling theory.

Beyond the mean: long-term variabilities in precipitation and temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Guo ◽  
Yanhong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
High Altitudes ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

AbstractLong-term variabilities in daily precipitation and temperature are critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. We characterized intra- and interannual variabilities in daily precipitation and temperature obtained from 1960 to 2015 at 78 meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results show that 1) The intra-annual variability of daily precipitation increases for 55 meteorological stations with a rate of 0.08 mm per decade. In contrast, the intra-annual variability markedly decreases for daily mean, daytime mean, and nighttime mean temperatures with a rate of 0.09, 0.07, and 0.12 °C per decade, respectively at 90% or more of stations. 2) Variabilities of daily precipitation and temperatures are quite sensitive to high altitudes (> 3500 m). The intra- and interannual variabilities of daily precipitation significantly decrease at 1.0 and 0.07 mm per 1000 m, respectively. However, variations of high altitudes increase the intra- and interannual variabilities of daily mean temperature at 1.0 °C and 0.2 °C per 1000 m. Moreover, the interannual variability of nighttime mean temperature varies at 0.3 °C per 1000 m, the fastest rate among three temperature indices. 3) A larger mean annual precipitation is accompanied by a higher intra- and interannual variability of daily precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; however, a higher mean annual temperature leads to lower variabilities of daily temperatures. This study illustrates that long-term climatic variability is understudied in alpine ecosystems characterized by high climatic sensitivity. Precipitation and temperature variabilities should be characterized to improve predictions of vulnerable ecosystems responding to climate change.

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