Intelligence and Belief Acquisition

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-60
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Philosophical Study ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Theoretical Context ◽  
Essential Nature ◽  
Covert Activity

Chapter one examines whether belief acquisition in intelligence a unique epistemological act. It examines the nature of intelligence analysis as an act of belief acquisition, providing a theoretical context grounded in epistemology, the philosophical study of the nature of belief and knowledge, and examining the sources of information on which intelligence analysis is based, and the mechanisms by which knowledge is gained. The chapter argues that: 1) the essential nature of intelligence is epistemological: that it is necessarily defined by the attempt to acquire justified beliefs and knowledge; 2) intelligence is necessarily a covert activity; 3) intelligence does not require unique methods of gaining knowledge and does not derive from unique sources, and; 4) the covert characteristic of intelligence means that belief acquisition in intelligence is likely to differ in the degree of epistemic complexity it faces, and that this may produce a difference in the degree to which intelligence analysis is vulnerable to cognitive bias.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Underlying Causes

Belief, Bias and Intelligence outlines an approach for reducing the risk of cognitive biases impacting intelligence analysis that draws from experimental research in the social sciences. It critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990’s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The book shows that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed, and that there is no empirical basis for the use of ACH in mitigating cognitive biases. It puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, includes meta-analysis into which analytical factors increase and reduce the risk of cognitive bias and recommends an alternative approach to risk mitigation for intelligence communities. Finally, it proposes alternative models for explaining the underlying causes of cognitive biases, challenging current leading theories in the social sciences.

Cognitive Bias to Internal Sources of Information in Anxiety

1998 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel G. Calvo ◽  
Michael W. Eysenck
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Internal Sources

The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias

2020 ◽  
pp. 61-104
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Epistemic Justification ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Competing Hypotheses ◽  
Do So

The chapter examines the ability of current versions of the structured analytical technique, assessment of competing hypotheses (ACH) to provide theoretically valid methodologies for establishing justified beliefs in intelligence analysis, to cope with the higher risk of epistemic complexity in intelligence analysis, and to mitigate or reduce cognitive bias. It argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to establish justification for beliefs, or to cope with epistemic complexity, but that the method can be adapted to do so. It also argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to mitigate the risk of cognitive bias, but that the method could be adapted to make the occurrence of some cognitive biases visible to peer review.

Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 207-228
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Intelligence Analysis

Recommendations for future research and best practice for intelligence analysis.

“It's Not Humanly Possible to Do Everything”: Perspectives on Intervention Decision-Making Processes of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erinn Finke ◽  
Kathryn Drager ◽  
Elizabeth C. Serpentine
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individualized Education Program ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Interview Methodology ◽  
Communication Interventions

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to understand the decision-making processes used by parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) related to communication-based interventions. Method Qualitative interview methodology was used. Data were gathered through interviews. Each parent had a child with ASD who was at least four-years-old; lived with their child with ASD; had a child with ASD without functional speech for communication; and used at least two different communication interventions. Results Parents considered several sources of information for learning about interventions and provided various reasons to initiate and discontinue a communication intervention. Parents also discussed challenges introduced once opinions of the school individualized education program (IEP) team had to be considered. Conclusions Parents of children with ASD primarily use individual decision-making processes to select interventions. This discrepancy speaks to the need for parents and professionals to share a common “language” about interventions and the decision-making process.

Spatial Representations as an Emergent Feature of Perceptual Processing

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 161-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund Wascher ◽  
C. Beste
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Event Related Potentials ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Integrated Network ◽  
Perceptual Maps ◽  
Emergent Feature ◽  
Related Potentials ◽  
Selection Of

Spatial selection of relevant information has been proposed to reflect an emergent feature of stimulus processing within an integrated network of perceptual areas. Stimulus-based and intention-based sources of information might converge in a common stage when spatial maps are generated. This approach appears to be inconsistent with the assumption of distinct mechanisms for stimulus-driven and top-down controlled attention. In two experiments, the common ground of stimulus-driven and intention-based attention was tested by means of event-related potentials (ERPs) in the human EEG. In both experiments, the processing of a single transient was compared to the selection of a physically comparable stimulus among distractors. While single transients evoked a spatially sensitive N1, the extraction of relevant information out of a more complex display was reflected in an N2pc. The high similarity of the spatial portion of these two components (Experiment 1), and the replication of this finding for the vertical axis (Experiment 2) indicate that these two ERP components might both reflect the spatial representation of relevant information as derived from the organization of perceptual maps, just at different points in time.

Measuring the Big Five in Self-Report and Other Ratings

2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Barbaranelli ◽  
Gian Vittorio Caprara
Keyword(s):  
Big Five ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Structural Equation Models ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Third Person ◽  
Fit Indexes ◽  
Response Modes

Summary: The aim of the study is to assess the construct validity of two different measures of the Big Five, matching two “response modes” (phrase-questionnaire and list of adjectives) and two sources of information or raters (self-report and other ratings). Two-hundred subjects, equally divided in males and females, were administered the self-report versions of the Big Five Questionnaire (BFQ) and the Big Five Observer (BFO), a list of bipolar pairs of adjectives ( Caprara, Barbaranelli, & Borgogni, 1993 , 1994 ). Every subject was rated by six acquaintances, then aggregated by means of the same instruments used for the self-report, but worded in a third-person format. The multitrait-multimethod matrix derived from these measures was then analyzed via Structural Equation Models according to the criteria proposed by Widaman (1985) , Marsh (1989) , and Bagozzi (1994) . In particular, four different models were compared. While the global fit indexes of the models were only moderate, convergent and discriminant validities were clearly supported, and method and error variance were moderate or low.

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