Predicting High-Risk Individuals for Common Diseases Using Multi-Omics and Epidemiological Data

Luminous phenomena and anomalous physical forces have been hypothesized to be generated by focal tectonic strain fields that precede earthquakes. If these geophysical processes exist, then their spatial and temporal density should be greatest during periods of protracted, localized UFO reports; they might be used as dosimetric indicators. Contemporary epidemiological data concerning the health risks of power frequency electromagnetic fields and radon gas levels (expected correlates of certain tectonic strain fields), suggest that increased incidence (odds ratios greater 1:3) of brain tumors and leukemia should be evident within “flap” areas. In addition the frequency of variants of temporal lobe lability, psychological depression and posttraumatic stress should be significantly elevated. UFO field investigators, because they have repeated, intermittent close proximity to these fields, are considered to be a particularly high risk population for these disorders.

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Spanish national hereditary pancreatic cancer registry (PanFAM).

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2012.30.15_suppl.e12033 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽

pp. e12033-e12033

Author(s):

Carmen Guillen-Ponce ◽

Evelina Mocci ◽

Julie Earl ◽

Carmen T Guerrero ◽

Maria Celia Calcedo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pancreatic Cancer ◽

High Risk ◽

Screening Program ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Screening Methods ◽

Familial Pancreatic Cancer ◽

Inherited Predisposition ◽

Screening Study ◽

Age Of Diagnosis ◽

Breast And Prostate Cancer

e12033 Background: Inherited predisposition to Pancreatic Cancer (PC) corresponds 10% of all cases and includes members of families affected with hereditary cancer syndromes as Familial Pancreatic Cancer (FPC), Peutz-Jeghers, familial melanoma, hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, hereditary pancreatitis. An inherited predisposition in early onset PC (≤ 50 years) has also been suggested. We report preliminary data on PanFAM patients and screening of high risk individuals. Methods: PamFAM is a part of the European PANGEN PC case/control study of hereditary PC, co-ordinated by the Ramón y Cajal (RC) hospital and the Spanish National Cancer Research Center, with 16 participating hospitals. All families with clinical evidence of an inherited PC syndrome were recruited and multi-generational pedigrees were constructed. Cancer diagnoses were confirmed, when possible, by review of medical records. Blood samples and epidemiological data were collected for all participating family members. A screening program for early detection of PC, based on endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), CT and circulating tumour cells (CTCs) was offered to high risk individuals. Results: Of 505 Spanish PCs collected by PANGEN, 31 (~6%) were FPC cases; 18 (58%) revealed only PC and the remaining showed clustering with other tumor types, gastric cancer was the most common (13%). Among FPC families, 3 had 3 cases of PC and the remaining had 2 cases. The mean age of diagnosis was 67 years (range 47-85), 20 male and 11 female. Four FPCs were previously diagnosed with cancer (Hodgkin lymphoma, breast and prostate cancer) and 3 with acute pancreatitis. 37 PCs with no family history of cancer were diagnosed at the age of 50 years or earlier (mean 45, range 30-50), 18 male and 19 female. Other 27 eligible families were recruited by RyC hospital, 8 (30%) with FPC and 3 (11%) with PC ≤ 50 years. A cohort of 61 high risk individuals participes in the screening study: 3 had abnormal EUS, 1 a benign pancreatic node and 1 a renal angiolipoma; one young man had 2 CTCs. Conclusions: PanFAM is the first registry in Spain collecting hereditary PC cases and it represents an important resource to identify underlying gene defects and to the development of screening methods precursor lesions detection in high risk individuals.

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Rapid mapping of schistosomiasis and other neglected tropical diseases in the context of integrated control programmes in Africa

Parasitology ◽

10.1017/s0031182009005940 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 136 (13) ◽

pp. 1707-1718 ◽

Cited By ~ 95

Author(s):

S. BROOKER ◽

N. B. KABATEREINE ◽

J. O. GYAPONG ◽

J. R. STOTHARD ◽

J. UTZINGER

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

Integrated Control ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Tropical Diseases ◽

Survey Tool ◽

Rapid Mapping ◽

Effective Manner ◽

Risk Communities

SUMMARYThere is growing interest and commitment to the control of schistosomiasis and other so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Resources for control are inevitably limited, necessitating assessment methods that can rapidly and accurately identify and map high-risk communities so that interventions can be targeted in a spatially-explicit and cost-effective manner. Here, we review progress made with (1) mapping schistosomiasis across Africa using available epidemiological data and, more recently, climate-based risk prediction; (2) the development and use of morbidity questionnaires for rapid identification of high-risk communities of urinary schistosomiasis; and (3) innovative sampling-based approaches for intestinal schistosomiasis, using the lot quality assurance sampling technique. Experiences are also presented for the rapid mapping of other NTDs, including onchocerciasis, loiasis and lymphatic filariasis. Future directions for an integrated rapid mapping approach targeting multiple NTDs simultaneously are outlined, including potential challenges in developing an integrated survey tool. The lessons from the mapping of human helminth infections may also be relevant for the rapid mapping of malaria as its control efforts are intensified.

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Detection of human papillomavirus DNA in self-administered vaginal swabs as compared to cervical swabs

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1258/095646203767869183 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 14 (8) ◽

pp. 560-567 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Melanie E Palmisano ◽

Ann M Gaffga ◽

Jennifer Daigle ◽

Joeli Brinkman ◽

Kristina Mire ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Papillomavirus ◽

High Risk ◽

Phase I ◽

Phase Ii ◽

Pap Smear ◽

Blot Hybridization ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Hpv Dna ◽

Vaginal Swabs ◽

Hpv Genotypes

The primary risk factor for cervical cancer is infection with high-risk genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV). This study compared HPV DNA detection between cervical swabs (CX) and self-administered vaginal swabs (SV). Phase I participants were 199 women chosen from a study comparing the detection of Chlamydia trachomatis from various anogenital sites. Phase II participants were 135 women from either the Colposcopy or HIV Outpatient Clinic. HPV DNA testing was performed using polymerase chain reaction and Roche reverse line blot hybridization. In Phase I samples, more CX samples amplified and more HPV genotypes ( P < 0.05) were detected in CX. Genotype 52 were seen more in the cervix, whereas genotype 82 (MM4) was detected solely in the vagina. The presence of high-risk HPV genotypes in the cervix was a predictor of an abnormal Papanicolaou (Pap) smear. In Phase II samples, CX samples amplified more, but similar rates of HPV genotypes were seen in SV and CX samples. Higher concordance rates of high-risk genotypes were seen in Phase II compared to Phase I samples. Phase II demonstrated the feasibility of utilizing SV sampling to reflect cervical status. If validated, a self-vaginal swab method to detect cervical HPV DNA status could be utilized to triage women with indeterminate Pap smears and be a useful method to collect epidemiological data from large populations.

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Anal human papillomavirus infection and its relations with abnormal anal cytology among MSM with or without HIV infection in Japan

10.21203/rs.3.rs-232653/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Daisuke Shiojiri ◽

Daisuke Mizushima ◽

Misao Takano ◽

Koji Watanabe ◽

Naokatsu Ando ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Papillomavirus ◽

High Risk ◽

Hiv Infection ◽

Hpv Vaccination ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Hpv Infection ◽

Abnormal Cytology ◽

Hpv Genotypes ◽

Anal Cytology ◽

The Difference

Abstract Background Anorectal high-risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV) infection is associated with anal malignancies. However, the epidemiological data is quite limited in Japan. Methods Anorectal swab was obtained from HIV-infected and –uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM). Only high-risk HPV genotypes were examined by the Hybrid Capture-based methodology. Anal cytology was determined by the modification of the Bethesda System classification. Results In total, 644 participants were included. No participant had history of HPV vaccination at inclusion. The overall prevalence of hr-HPV was 58.5% (95% confidence interval: 54.7-62.3). The most frequently detected hr-HPV genotypes in order were HPV-52, -16, and -58. Among the HPV infected subjects, 82.8% (312/377) were infected with at least one of the 9 valent vaccine covered genotypes. Incidence of abnormal cytology was positively correlated with the number of HPV genotypes infected rather than the difference in genotypes. Multivariate analysis identified the number of detected hr-HPV genotypes as well as HIV-infection were the independent risk factors for pre-cancer. Conclusion Nine valent vaccine preventable HPVs are currently prevalent among MSM in Japan. Also, increased numbers of hr-HPV genotypes were strongly associated with anorectal pre-cancer. Universal HPV vaccination should be considered for Japanese MSM.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF NATURAL TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS FOCI IN THE TOMSK REGION

Medical Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases ◽

10.33092/0025-8326mp2021.3.3-11 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 3-11

Author(s):

N.V. Poltoratskaya ◽

◽

T.N. Poltoratskaya ◽

T.M. Pankina ◽

M.V. Kondratyev ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Low Risk ◽

Infection Rates ◽

Risk Zone ◽

Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽

Tomsk Region ◽

The City ◽

Epidemiological Situation

This paper characterizes the current epidemiological situation of tick-borne encephalitis in the Tomsk region. There has been a decrease in the incidence of TBE for 10 years. There was made an attempt to typify the epidemiological situation of tick-borne encephalitis nidus on the basis of analysis of epidemiological data of the recent years (2011-2020) in the context of administrative territories of Tomsk region. The typification of the foci of TBE was carried out in the context of the administrative territories of the region. Areas of high, medium, low risk of TBE infection are identified. The territories of the city of Tomsk and the Tomsk region, where the maximum infection rates are recorded (66-88 cases per year), are referred to the high-risk zone. Keywords: monitoring, morbidity, tick-borne encephalitis, natural focal infections, intensive indicator.

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Tactics of Non-Specific Prophylaxis of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2012–2017

Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections ◽

10.21055/0370-1069-2018-2-73-78 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 73-78

Author(s):

P. A. Mochalkin ◽

A. P. Mochalkin ◽

E. G. Stepanov ◽

L. A. Farvazova

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Statistical Processing ◽

Hemorrhagic Fever ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Morbidity Rate ◽

Risk Of Infection ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

Prophylactic Measures ◽

The Republic

Objective of the study was to collate the lessons learned from application of differential approach to the areas with varying risk of infection while performing prophylactic measures in the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Materials and methods. Archival epizootiological and epidemiological data of the Rospotrebnadzor Administration in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Republican Center of Disinfection, Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Republic of Bashkortostan over the period of 2012–2017, as well as official statistics of the Rospotrebnadzor, including from Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology and the data contained in the Form 1 of state statistics “Information on infection and parasitic diseases” were used for the analysis. Statistical processing of the data and results acquisition were carried out using standard software package of Microsoft Office and Statistica 8.0. Results and conclusions. It is established that in 2012–2017 due to selective concentration of preventive (anti-epidemic) activities in zones of high risk of HFRS contraction in Ufa city, significant decrement in HFRS morbidity rates was achieved. In order to deploy the stated tactics across the whole territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan, factors and areas of risk of infection have been identified. It is determined that the total land area with high risk of infection amounts to 14096 square kilometers; i.e. 9.8 % of the whole area of the Republic of Bashkortostan. At that, in 2012–2017 4946 cases of HFRS infection were registered here, which is 50.5 % of the total morbidity rate in the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan. It is substantiated that to stabilize the level of HFRS incidence it is necessary to provide three-fold (spring, summer, and autumn) running of disinfection activities (barrier, community deratization (disinfection)) in the territories of high risk of infection. Prophylactic measures must be aimed at protection of specific contingents falling under the high risk of HFRS contraction and be preventive in nature; i.e. be carried out prior to the periods of contact intensity and population density increase in the areas characterized by high risk of infection.

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Predicting individual risk for COVID19 complications using EMR data

10.1101/2020.06.03.20121574 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yaron Kinar ◽

Alon Lanyado ◽

Avi Shoshan ◽

Rachel Yesharim ◽

Tamar Domany ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Real World ◽

Large Scale ◽

Predictive Analytics ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Added Value ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Real World Data ◽

Mesh Terms ◽

Age And Sex

AbstractBackgroundThe global pandemic of COVID-19 has challenged healthcare organizations and caused numerous deaths and hospitalizations worldwide. The need for data-based decision support tools for many aspects of controlling and treating the disease is evident but has been hampered by the scarcity of real-world reliable data. Here we describe two approaches: a. the use of an existing EMR-based model for predicting complications due to influenza combined with available epidemiological data to create a model that identifies individuals at high risk to develop complications due to COVID-19 and b. a preliminary model that is trained using existing real world COVID-19 data.MethodsWe have utilized the computerized data of Maccabi Healthcare Services a 2.3 million member state-mandated health organization in Israel. The age and sex matched matrix used for training the XGBoost ILI-based model included, circa 690,000 rows and 900 features. The available dataset for COVID-based model included a total 2137 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals who were either not hospitalized (n = 1658), or hospitalized and marked as mild (n = 332), or as having moderate (n = 83) or severe (n = 64) complications.FindingsThe AUC of our models and the priors on the 2137 COVID-19 patients for predicting moderate and severe complications as cases and all other as controls, the AUC for the ILI-based model was 0.852[0.824–0.879] for the COVID19-based model – 0.872[0.847–0.879].InterpretationThese models can effectively identify patients at high-risk for complication, thus allowing optimization of resources and more focused follow up and early triage these patients if once symptoms worsen.FundingThere was no funding for this studyResearch in contextEvidence before this studyWe have search PubMed for coronavirus[MeSH Major Topic] AND the following MeSH terms: risk score, predictive analytics, algorithm, predictive analytics. Only few studies were found on predictive analytics for developing COVID19 complications using real-world data. Many of the relevant works were based on self-reported information and are therefore difficult to implement at large scale and without patient or physician participation.Added value of this studyWe have described two models for assessing risk of COVID-19 complications and mortality, based on EMR data. One model was derived by combining a machine-learning model for influenza-complications with epidemiological data for age and sex dependent mortality rates due to COVID-19. The other was directly derived from initial COVID-19 complications data.Implications of all the available evidenceThe developed models may effectively identify patients at high-risk for developing COVID19 complications. Implementing such models into operational data systems may support COVID-19 care workflows and assist in triaging patients.

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Balayage du génome et repérage des personnes à risque

médecine/sciences ◽

10.1051/medsci/2018290 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (12) ◽

pp. 1116-1122 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Bertrand Jordan

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Genetic Information ◽

Predictive Power ◽

Common Diseases ◽

Polygenic Scores

The accumulation of extensive repositories linking phenotypic and genetic information, together with new computation methods, makes it possible to derive polygenic scores for susceptibility to common diseases that turn out to have strong predictive power. These will be clinically useful to identify individuals at high risk who may be eligible for protective interventions.

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