scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Antibiotic Resistance—Eliciting and Modelling Probabilistic Dependencies Between Multivariate Uncertainties of Bug-Drug Combinations

Author(s):  
Christoph Werner ◽  
Abigail Colson ◽  
Alec Morton ◽  
Tim Bedford

The increasing impact of antibacterial resistance concerns various stakeholders, including clinicians, researchers and decision-makers in the pharmaceutical industry, and healthcare policy-makers. In particular, possible multidrug resistance of bacteria poses complex challenges for healthcare risk assessments and for pharmaceutical companies’ willingness to invest in research and development (R&D). Neglecting dependencies between uncertainties of future resistance rates can severely underestimate the systemic risk for certain bug-drug combinations. In this paper, we model the dependencies between several important bug-drug combinations’ resistance rates that are of interest for the United Kingdom probabilistically through copulas. As a commonly encountered challenge in probabilistic dependence modelling is the lack of relevant historical data to quantify a model, we present a method for eliciting dependence information from experts in a formal and structured manner. It aims at providing transparency and robustness of the elicitation results while also mitigating common cognitive fallacies of dependence assessments. Methodological robustness is of particular importance whenever elicitation results are used in complex decisions such as prioritising investments of antibiotics R&D.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Michael Garrett ◽  
Joshua Paul White ◽  
Simon Dennis ◽  
Stephan Lewandowsky ◽  
Cheng-Ta ◽  
...  

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are introducing digital passports that allow citizens to return to normal activities if they were previously infected with (immunity passport) or vaccinated against (vaccination passport) SARS-CoV-2. To be effective, policy decision makers must know whether immunity and vaccination passports will be widely accepted by the public, and under what conditions? We collected representative samples across six countries – Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom – during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic to assess attitudes towards the introduction of immunity passports. Immunity passport support was moderate-to-low, ranging from 51% in the UK and Germany, down to 22% in Japan. Bayesian generalized linear mixed effects modelling controlling for each country showed neoliberal world views, personal concern and perceived virus severity, the fairness of immunity passports, and willingness to become infected to gain an immunity passport, were all predictive factors of immunity passport support. By contrast, gender (woman), immunity passport concern, and risk of harm to society predicted a decrease in support for immunity passports. Minor differences in predictive factors were found between countries. These findings will help policy makers introduce effective immunity passport policies in these six countries and around the world.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dagenais

Abstract Background Despite the increased emphasis placed on the use of evidence for policy development, relatively few initiatives have been developed to support evidence-informed decision-making, especially in West Africa. Moreover, studies examining the conditions under which policy-makers use research-based evidence are still scarce, but they show that their attitudes and opinions about research are one of the main determinants of such use. In February 2017, Burkina Faso’s Minister of Health planned to create a unit to promote evidence-informed decision-making within the ministry. Before the unit was set up, documenting the attitudes towards research at the highest levels of his Ministry appeared profitable to the unit’s planning. Method Individual interviews were conducted by the author with 14 actors positioned to consider evidence during decision-making from the Burkina Faso’s Minister of health cabinet. An interview grid was used to explore several themes such as attitudes towards research, obstacles and facilitators to research use, example of research use in decision-making and finally, ways to increase decision-makers’ participation in knowledge transfer activities. Interviews were partially transcribed and analysed by the author. Results The results show a mixed attitude towards research and relatively little indication of research use reported by respondents. Important obstacles were identified: evidence inaccessibility, lack of implementation guidelines, absence of clear communication strategy and studies’ lack of relevance for decision-making. Many suggestions were proposed such as raising awareness, improving access and research communication and prioritizing interactions with researchers. Respondents agree with the low participation of decision-makers in knowledge transfer activities: more leadership from the senior officials was suggested and greater awareness of the importance of their presence. Conclusions The conclusion presents avenues for reflection and action to increase the potential impact of the knowledge transfer unit planned within the Ministry of Health of Burkina Faso. This innovative initiative will be impactful if the obstacles identified in this study and policy-makers’ preferences and needs are taken into account during its development and implementation.


Author(s):  
Gabrielle Samuel ◽  
Jenn Chubb ◽  
Gemma Derrick

The governance of ethically acceptable research in higher education institutions has been under scrutiny over the past half a century. Concomitantly, recently, decision makers have required researchers to acknowledge the societal impact of their research, as well as anticipate and respond to ethical dimensions of this societal impact through responsible research and innovation principles. Using artificial intelligence population health research in the United Kingdom and Canada as a case study, we combine a mapping study of journal publications with 18 interviews with researchers to explore how the ethical dimensions associated with this societal impact are incorporated into research agendas. Researchers separated the ethical responsibility of their research with its societal impact. We discuss the implications for both researchers and actors across the Ethics Ecosystem.


2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110290
Author(s):  
Bala Ramasamy ◽  
Howei Wu ◽  
Matthew Yeung

Hosting sports events to attract international tourists is a common policy practised by many host governments. Hosting mega-sports events like the Olympics is said to leave a legacy that could impact the attractiveness of a country/city in the long term. However, the opportunity to host these mega-events is limited and expensive. This study considers the economic impact of hosting annual international sporting events, specifically the extent to which Formula 1, ATP Tennis and PGA Golf can attract international tourists. Using monthly data from 1998 to 2018, we show that the effect differs from one sport to another within a country and the same sport across countries. Hosting the Formula 1 is most effective for Canada but has no significant impact in Australia and the United Kingdom. ATP Tennis and PGA Golf have a significant impact on at least two countries. Policy-makers must consider carefully the sport that gives the best bang-for-the-buck.


Author(s):  
Victoria A. Beard ◽  
Diana Mitlin

This paper highlights challenges of water access in towns and cities of the global South and explores potential policy responses. These challenges are not new, although, we argue that they have been underestimated by policy makers due to a focus on global data, thus, resulting in decision makers paying insufficient attention to these problems. Policies need to be based on a more accurate assessment of challenges, specifically the need for continuous and affordable water service, and the need to provide services to informal settlements. We share findings from research on 15 cities across Latin America, Asia, and Africa.


2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rania Mousa

Electronic government is one of the strategic innovations which have become a powerful agent of change for developing better government information and services and supporting the modernization of government’s operations. This paper investigates a remarkable e-government initiative represented by the adoption process of the Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) at Companies House (CH) in the United Kingdom. Based on the application of Rogers’ framework, the research identifies CH’s motivation, vision and process to use XBRL to achieve efficiency and produce better quality data to enhance and streamline the electronic filing process. The novelty of this research is based on the usage of a well-established innovation adoption framework to examine XBRL adoption as a process –rather than a product- innovation that remains to be an under-researched area. This research provides valuable implications and conclusions that can help decision makers and IT experts in government agencies to devise meaningful strategic plans to adopt future e-government initiatives and develop existing ones.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-141
Author(s):  
Aleya James

This paper explores the work of the educational theorist Gert Biesta in a setting outside of the context where it was originally developed. It aims to address how Biesta’s approach can help educators and policy makers question the philosophical underpinnings of education in the UAE and thereby start a conversation that is currently absent in this context. The paper comprises three elements: first, an overview of Biesta’s educational theory is given with a focus on ‘subjectification’ and his self-titled “pedagogy of interruption”. Secondly and in brief, I use Biesta’s framework of educational dimensions to analyse the philosophy underlying education in the United Arab Emirates using published government documents and media sources. Thirdly, I report a small-scale qualitative analysis of a specific educational space, three General Studies Courses in a UAE tertiary institution, to investigate the ‘risky’ possibilities involved in implementing a pedagogy of interruption. I find that despite a dominant policy discourse that discounts subjectification, there are significant opportunities for students to develop a strong sense of self. These opportunities are created by a small but strongly motivated group of teachers and taken up, on the whole enthusiastically, by students. However, my assertions are limited by a number of challenges which warrant further research. This paper hopes to provide a meaningful contribution to the limited discussion regarding the aims and expectations of education in the Middle East, and finds a pertinent philosophical grounding for liberal studies teaching in a tertiary context. As such the paper will be of value both to policy and decision makers in the Middle East and to teachers and trainers who teach in multi-cultural and international contexts.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 245-255
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdulla Al Jaberi ◽  
Syed Najmuddin Bin Syed Hassan ◽  
Abd Rahman Bin Ahmad

Purpose of the study: The purpose of this paper is to assess the knowledge sharing and job performance from psycho-social perspectives on Al Ain Municipality in UAE. Methodology: Since this is a conceptual study, so this paper only focuses on the literature survey and logical explanation based on the facts discussed. Results: The results of this study show that loss of knowledge can result in duplication of work, unreasonable searches for expertise and knowledge, and employees not learning from the experienced. Not all knowledge in the organisations is of critical value, and therefore need not be captured and retained, but the critical knowledge that is at risk of loss should be captured. Implications: The awareness of knowledge loss through staff attrition may motivate companies to institutionalise specific processes to capture the tacit knowledge of their employees as much as possible.  It is advisable for firms to have strategies in place on how to capture and retain their workforce’s knowledge. Novelty: This research contributes significantly on the knowledge management from psycho-social perspectives and from the vantage point of United Arab Emirates. Upon the analysis of the data collected, the research may provide recommendations for the policy makers, academicians, practitioners as well as decision-makers and other stakeholders.


2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bala Ramasamy ◽  
Matthew Yeung

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify location factors that Chinese managers look for when making internationalization decisions and how the factors stack up in perceived importance. Over the past ten years, Chinese enterprises have become more multi-national in nature. China’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) has been growing at a phenomenal rate. In 2012, China became the third largest investor, after the USA and Japan; and the largest investor among developing countries. How can host governments attract more of this Chinese capital? What are some short- to medium-term policies that host governments can initiate to make their respective nations attractive to Chinese companies? Design/methodology/approach The authors consider these questions by using a best-worst choice exercise among 114 senior corporate decision makers of Chinese companies who have or are planning to globalize. We rank 16 most common determinants that influence FDI location choice and evaluate their degree of importance. Findings The authors propose five “low hanging fruits” that policy makers should consider that could ensure their countries come within the radar of Chinese multi-nationals. These include promoting a clean and efficient business environment and strengthening/establishing political and economic relationships with China. Originality/value The originality of this study lies in the methodology of the study that forces respondents to make a trade-off in their decisions, which in a way is closer to reality. The respondents are also actual decision makers in their companies with regards to international investment decisions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Khalaf ◽  
Abdul Rahman Abdul Ridha ◽  
Hussein Habeeb

After 2008, a new term appeared on monetary policies after the direct monetary policies failed to reach a solution to the economic deficit that occurred in the economies of many countries, especially after the mortgage crisis that plagued the financial markets in most countries of the world, as these countries tried to reduce the interest rate to Zero or close to it in order to move the economy, but it did not respond despite the fact that the interest rate is the main tool and is considered the control stick in direct monetary policies.  Thus, it became imperative for those countries to use new tools in order to get out of that crisis. Japan is considered the first to use these new policies and solutions before that period, and he is the first to call them indirect monetary policies. These tools were called by many names, including quantitative easing, credit facilitation and others. Many names, but it was the best solution by monetary policy makers for many countries, including the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Britain and the European Union, which represent the most powerful economies in the world,


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