Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Facing the western Pacific Ocean and backed by the Eurasian continent, the coastal area of China (hereafter as CAC) is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change due to the compound effects of land-ocean-atmosphere, and thus is prone to suffer huge climate-related disaster losses because of its large population density and fast developed economy in the context of global warming. Here in this study the near- (2040), mid- (2070), and long-future (2100) mean, minimum, and maximum temperature (Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax) projections based on the statistic downscaling climate prediction model (SimCLIM) integrated with 44 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under three representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) scenarios are evaluated over CAC and its sub-regions. Multi-model ensemble of the selected GCMs demonstrated that there was a dominating and consistent warming trend of Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax in the Chinese coastal area in the future. Under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual temperature increase was respectively projected to be in the range of 0.8–1.2°C for 2040, 1.5–2.7°C for 2070, and 1.6–4.4°C for 2100 over the entire CAC. Moreover, a spatial differentiation of temperature changes both on the sub-regional and meteorological station scales was also revealed, generally showing an increment with “high south and low north” for annual average Tmean but “high north and low south” for Tmin and Tmax. An obvious lower increase of Tmean in the hotter months like July and August in the south and a significant sharper increment of Tmin and Tmax in the colder months such as January, February, and December in the north were expected in the future. Results derived from this study are anticipated to provide insights into future temperature changes and also assist in the development of target climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the coastal area of China.

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Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in historical (1961–1990) and projected (2061–2090) periods in a data scarce mountain basin, northern Pakistan

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ◽

10.1007/s00477-020-01829-6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 34 (10) ◽

pp. 1441-1455 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Naeem Saddique ◽

Abdul Khaliq ◽

Christian Bernhofer

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Significance Level ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

The Future ◽

Increasing Trends ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract This study investigates the trends of precipitation and temperature extremes for the historical observations (1961–1990) and future period (2061–2090) in the Jhelum River Basin. Future trends are estimated by using ensemble mean of three general circulation models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Therefore, statistical downscaling model has been used to downscale the future precipitation and temperature. A total of 15 precipitation and temperature indices were calculated using the RClimdex package. Man-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect the trends in climate extreme indices. Overall, the results of study indicate that there were significant changes in precipitation and temperature patterns as well as in the climate extremes in the basin for both observed as well as projected climate. Generally, more warming and increase in precipitation were observed, which increases from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. For all the stations, increasing trends were found for both precipitation and temperature for twenty-first century at a 95% significance level. The frequency of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and summer days (SU25) showed significant increasing trends, alternatively the number of cold nights (TN10p) and cold days (TX10p) exhibited opposite behaviors. In addition, an increasing trend of warmest day (TXx) and coldest day (TNn) was observed. Our analysis also reveals that the number of very wet days (R90p) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) will likely increase in the future. Meanwhile, the Max 1-day (RX1-day) and 5-day (RX5-day) precipitation indices showed increasing trends at most of the stations of basin. The results of the study is of potential benefit for decision-makers to develop basin wide appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to combat climate change and its consequences.

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The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-15-1375-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 1375-1394 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Masakazu Yoshimori ◽

Marina Suzuki

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

General Circulation ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Longwave Radiation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Cross Model ◽

Arctic Warming ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The Future ◽

Arctic Climate Change

Abstract. There remain substantial uncertainties in future projections of Arctic climate change. There is a potential to constrain these uncertainties using a combination of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data, but such a constraint must be accompanied by physical understanding on the connection between past and future simulations. Here, we examine the relevance of an Arctic warming mechanism in the mid-Holocene (MH) to the future with emphasis on process understanding. We conducted a surface energy balance analysis on 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models under the MH and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario forcings. It is found that many of the dominant processes that amplify Arctic warming over the ocean from late autumn to early winter are common between the two periods, despite the difference in the source of the forcing (insolation vs. greenhouse gases). The positive albedo feedback in summer results in an increase in oceanic heat release in the colder season when the atmospheric stratification is strong, and an increased greenhouse effect from clouds helps amplify the warming during the season with small insolation. The seasonal progress was elucidated by the decomposition of the factors associated with sea surface temperature, ice concentration, and ice surface temperature changes. We also quantified the contribution of individual components to the inter-model variance in the surface temperature changes. The downward clear-sky longwave radiation is one of major contributors to the model spread throughout the year. Other controlling terms for the model spread vary with the season, but they are similar between the MH and the future in each season. This result suggests that the MH Arctic change may not be analogous to the future in some seasons when the temperature response differs, but it is still useful to constrain the model spread in the future Arctic projection. The cross-model correlation suggests that the feedbacks in preceding seasons should not be overlooked when determining constraints, particularly summer sea ice cover for the constraint of autumn–winter surface temperature response.

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High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070761 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 761 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Theodoros Katopodis ◽

Iason Markantonis ◽

Nadia Politi ◽

Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽

Athanasios Sfetsos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Energy Demand ◽

General Circulation ◽

Wrf Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Weather Research And Forecasting ◽

Clear Sky ◽

The Future ◽

Weather Research

In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km2 spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction fclear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

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A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030061 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kleoniki Demertzi ◽

Dimitris Papadimos ◽

Vassilis Aschonitis ◽

Dimitris Papamichail

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Drainage Basin ◽

Management Strategies ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Modified Model ◽

Natural Lakes ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

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Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh Under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Water ◽

10.3390/w11112219 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 2219 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kamruzzaman ◽

Jang ◽

Cho ◽

Hwang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Northern Region ◽

Medium Term ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Drought Characteristics ◽

The Future ◽

Northwestern Region

: The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase in rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

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Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2007.2075 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 365 (1857) ◽

pp. 2029-2052 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

Peter A Stott ◽

Chris E Forest

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Climate Models ◽

State Of The Art ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Large Ensembles ◽

Past Climate Change

Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.

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Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

10.20944/preprints201909.0291.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽

Min-Won Jang ◽

Jaepil Cho ◽

Syewoon Hwang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Northern Region ◽

Medium Term ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Drought Characteristics ◽

The Future ◽

Northwestern Region

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase of rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

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Soil, Water, and Climate Change Integrated Impact Assessment on Yields

International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems ◽

10.4018/ijaeis.2018040102 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 20-31 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alejandro I. Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Jesús D. Gómez-Díaz ◽

Antonio R. Arce-Romero

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Degradation ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Planting Date ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Information ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Near Future ◽

Integrated Impact Assessment

This article describes the potential yields of maize, wheat and barley which were modeled with climate change, soil degradation and water balance scenarios in central Mexico. Two adaptation measures were also evaluated. To estimate yields the AquaCrop-FAO model was applied. Three study cases were chosen and their climate, soil, phenological and management information was compiled. Once calibrated, the authors tested the response in yields for 28 climate change scenarios: five General Circulation Models, two RCP and three-time horizons. Two adaptation actions were evaluated: changing planting date and increase of organic mulches. Results show that yield of maize in the near future (2015-2039) would fall 50% average, barley and wheat yields would decrease in 40% and 25% respectively. If soil degradation and loss is considered, the yield will reduce considerably. Adaptation measure based on changing planting date was as effective as increasing mulches. It is necessary to consider soil together with climate change scenarios in yield modeling. It is possible to suggest wrong adaptation measures if only the climate is considered and not all the variables involved.

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Soil, Water, and Climate Change Integrated Impact Assessment on Yields

10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch042 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 858-870

Author(s):

Alejandro I. Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Jesús D. Gómez-Díaz ◽

Antonio R. Arce-Romero

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Degradation ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Planting Date ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Yield Modeling ◽

Near Future ◽

Integrated Impact Assessment

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Uncertainties of climate and CO2 impacts on carbon stocks and biome distribution in Africa

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21790 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Carola Martens ◽

Thomas Hickler ◽

Claire Davis-Reddy ◽

Francois Engelbrecht ◽

Steven I. Higgins ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Woody Encroachment ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Rcp 8.5

Climate change is expected to cause vegetation change in Africa, with profound impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Projections of future ecosystem states are constrained by uncertainties regarding relative impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilisation effects. Rising atmospheric CO2 drives climate change, but also directly affects plant physiological functions via carbon uptake, carbon allocation, water use efficiency, and growth. We use the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM) to quantify uncertainties in projected African vegetation until 2099. High-resolution climate forcing for the aDGVM, was generated by regional climate modelling. An ensemble of 24 aDGVM simulations based on six downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) with plant-physiological CO2 effects enabled and disabled was implemented.Under strong climatic change with high CO2 increases (RCP 8.5), almost a third of terrestrial Africa is projected to experience biome changes with woody encroachment into grassy biomes dominating biome changes. Projections under medium-impact scenarios (RCP 4.5) still predict biome changes for around a quarter of Africa. With climate change only and elevated-CO2 effects disabled, woody encroachment is weak and reduction of forest cover in favour of savannas prevails. Change in aboveground vegetation carbon until 2099 varied from a strong increase under elevated CO2&#160;(61.5%, RCP 8.5; 33.9%, RCP 4.5) to a small increase of 5.4% (RCP 4.5) and a decrease of -13.6% (RCP 8.5) without CO2 effects.CO2 effects in combination with RCP scenarios caused the greatest uncertainty in projected ecosystem changes. Downscaled GCM projections caused weaker uncertainties in the simulations. Future biome changes due to climate and CO2 change are therefore likely in large parts of Africa. Their magnitude and location often remain uncertain. Climate mitigation and adaptation response measures that rely upon vegetation-derived ecosystem services will need to account for alternative climate futures.

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