scholarly journals Genetic Drift Versus Climate Region Spreading Dynamics of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Di Pietro ◽  
M. Basile ◽  
L. Antolini ◽  
S. Alberti
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Early Time ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The United Kingdom

Background: The current propagation models of COVID-19 are poorly consistent with existing epidemiological data and with evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is mutating, for potential aggressive evolution of the disease.Objectives: We looked for fundamental variables that were missing from current analyses. Among them were regional climate heterogeneity, viral evolution processes versus founder effects, and large-scale virus containment measures.Methods: We challenged regional versus genetic evolution models of COVID-19 at a whole-population level, over 168,089 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection cases in Italy, Spain, and Scandinavia at early time-points of the pandemic. Diffusion data in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom provided a validation dataset of 210,239 additional cases.Results: Mean doubling time of COVID-19 cases was 6.63 days in Northern versus 5.38 days in Southern Italy. Spain extended this trend of faster diffusion in Southern Europe, with a doubling time of 4.2 days. Slower doubling times were observed in Sweden (9.4 days), Finland (10.8 days), and Norway (12.95 days). COVID-19 doubling time in Germany (7.0 days), France (7.5 days), and the United Kingdom (7.2 days) supported the North/South gradient model. Clusters of SARS-CoV-2 mutations upon sequential diffusion were not found to clearly correlate with regional distribution dynamics.Conclusion: Acquisition of mutations upon SARS-CoV-2 spreading failed to explain regional diffusion heterogeneity at early pandemic times. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 transmission rates are rather associated with a sharp North/South climate gradient, with faster spreading in Southern regions. Thus, warmer climate conditions may not limit SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Very cold regions may be better spared by recurrent courses of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

scholarly journals Associations between dimensions of behaviour, personality traits, and mental-health during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Hampshire ◽  
Peter J. Hellyer ◽  
Eyal Soreq ◽  
Mitul A. Mehta ◽  
Konstantinos Ioannidis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Technology Use ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Health And Well Being

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic (including lockdown) is likely to have had profound but diverse implications for mental health and well-being, yet little is known about individual experiences of the pandemic (positive and negative) and how this relates to mental health and well-being, as well as other important contextual variables. Here, we analyse data sampled in a large-scale manner from 379,875 people in the United Kingdom (UK) during 2020 to identify population variables associated with mood and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to investigate self-perceived pandemic impact in relation to those variables. We report that while there are relatively small population-level differences in mood assessment scores pre- to peak-UK lockdown, the size of the differences is larger for people from specific groups, e.g. older adults and people with lower incomes. Multiple dimensions underlie peoples’ perceptions, both positive and negative, of the pandemic’s impact on daily life. These dimensions explain variance in mental health and can be statistically predicted from age, demographics, home and work circumstances, pre-existing conditions, maladaptive technology use and personality traits (e.g., compulsivity). We conclude that a holistic view, incorporating the broad range of relevant population factors, can better characterise people whose mental health is most at risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Plan for the development of specialized climate forecasting in NEACC

2021 ◽  
pp. 101-111
Author(s):  
S.V. Emelina ◽  
◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
North Eurasia

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre

Discourse and Democracy

2020 ◽  
pp. 233-261
Author(s):  
Chris Heffer
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Common Theme ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Voter Fraud

This chapter summarizes the main analytical moves in the TRUST heuristic for analyzing untruthfulness. It then applies the heuristic to three short texts that have been widely called out as lies: Trump’s tweet about large-scale voter fraud just before the 2016 presidential elections; the “Brexit Battle Bus” claim that the United Kingdom sent £350 million per week to the European Union; and Tony Blair’s 2002 statement to Parliament about Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction. The cases share a common theme: the capacity of untruthful public discourse to undermine democratic legitimacy by, respectively, questioning the integrity of electoral procedures, harming the capacity of voters to make a rational choice, and undermining faith in the rational and responsible deliberation of one’s leaders. The chapter troubles the simple attribution of lying in these cases and shows how a TRUST analysis can lead to a deeper understanding of the types and ethical value of untruthfulness.

How Do Children of Mixed Partnerships Fare in the United Kingdom? Understanding the Implications for Children of Parental Ethnic Homogamy and Heterogamy

2012 ◽  
Vol 643 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucinda Platt
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Sociological Analysis ◽  
Life Chances ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Majority Group ◽  
Extensive Analysis ◽  
Mixed Ethnicity

Many claims are made about the significance of interethnic partnerships for individuals and for society. Such partnerships continue to be seen as a “barometer” of the openness of society and have spawned extensive analysis investigating their patterns, trends, and determinants. But we know little about the experience of children growing up in families of mixed parentage. In the United Kingdom, the increase in the self-defined “mixed” population is often celebrated. But there has been little quantitative sociological analysis that has investigated the circumstances of the children of mixed ethnicity partnerships. Using two large-scale UK datasets that cover a similar period, this article evaluates the extent to which mixed parentage families are associated with circumstances (both economic and in terms of family structure) that tend to be positive or negative for children’s future life chances and how these compare to those of children with parents from the same ethnic group. It shows that there is substantial variation according to the outcome considered but also according to ethnic group. Overall, children in mixed parentage families do not unequivocally experience the equality of outcomes with majority group children that the assimilation hypothesis implies.

'Golden visas' will persist despite EU clampdown

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Background Checks ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Subject The 'golden visa' controversy in the EU. Significance The European Commission's announcement on October 10 that it would investigate so-called 'golden visa' schemes follows a report by Global Witness and Transparency International warning that insufficient applicant background checks exposed the EU to large-scale money laundering and corruption. Impacts Greater public knowledge of golden visas will increase domestic pressure on governments. Scandals could worsen relations between the EU and non-EU countries. Applications for visas in the United Kingdom will likely decline if there is a Brexit deal.

scholarly journals The 23–26 September 2012 U.K. Floods: Using PV Surgery to Quantify Sensitivity to Upper-Level Forcing

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (10) ◽  
pp. 4055-4079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Hardy ◽  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Geraint Vaughan
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Initial Position ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Major river flooding affected the United Kingdom in late September 2012 as a slow-moving extratropical cyclone brought over 150 mm of rain to parts of northern England and north Wales. The cyclone deepened over the United Kingdom on 24–26 September as a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly approached from the northwest, elongated into a PV streamer, and wrapped around the cyclone. The strength and position of the PV anomaly is modified in the initial conditions of Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations, using PV surgery, to examine whether different upper-level forcing, or different phasing between the PV anomaly and cyclone, could have produced an even more extreme event. These simulations reveal that quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent ahead of the anomaly contributed to the persistence of the rainfall over the United Kingdom. Moreover, weakening the anomaly resulted in lower rainfall accumulations across the United Kingdom, suggesting that the impact of the event might be proportional to the strength of the upper-level QG forcing. However, when the anomaly was strengthened, it rotated cyclonically around a large-scale trough over Iceland rather than moving eastward as in the verifying analysis, with strongly reduced accumulated rainfall across the United Kingdom. A similar evolution developed when the anomaly was moved farther away from the cyclone. Conversely, moving the anomaly nearer to the cyclone produced a similar solution to the verifying analysis, with slightly increased rainfall totals. These counterintuitive results suggest that the verifying analysis represented almost the highest-impact scenario possible for this flooding event when accounting for sensitivity to the initial position and strength of the PV anomaly.

Communicating Public Health Advice After a Chemical Spill: Results From National Surveys in the United Kingdom and Poland

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia M. Pearce ◽  
G. James Rubin ◽  
Richard Amlôt ◽  
Simon Wessely ◽  
M. Brooke Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hazardous Substance ◽  
Crisis Communications ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Coping ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjectiveThe aim of this study was to enhance public health preparedness for incidents that involve the large-scale release of a hazardous substance by examining factors likely to influence public responses to official guidance on how to limit their exposure.MethodsAn online demographically representative survey was conducted in the United Kingdom (n = 601) and Poland (n = 602) to test the strength of association of trust in authorities, anxiety, threat, and coping appraisals with the intention to comply with advice to shelter in place following a hypothetical chemical spill. The impact of ease of compliance and style of message presentation were also examined.ResultsParticipants were more likely to comply if at home when the incident happened, but message presentation had little impact. Coping appraisals and trust were key predictors of compliance, but threat appraisals were associated with noncompliance. Anxiety was seen to promote behavioral change. UK participants were more likely to comply than Polish participants.ConclusionsSuccessful crisis communications during an emergency should aim to influence perceptions regarding the efficacy of recommended behaviors, the difficulties people may have in following advice, and perceptions about the cost of following recommended behaviors. Generic principles of crisis communication may need adaptation for national contexts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:65-74)

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