scholarly journals Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianshu Gu ◽  
Lishi Wang ◽  
Ning Xie ◽  
Xia Meng ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Relationship

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.

Archaeologists and the Dead

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Context ◽  
Ethical Considerations ◽  
International Context ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Dead ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Experience Effect

This volume addresses the relationship between archaeologists and the dead, through the many dimensions of their relationships: in the field (through practical and legal issues), in the lab (through their analysis and interpretation), and in their written, visual and exhibitionary practice--disseminated to a variety of academic and public audiences. Written from a variety of perspectives, its authors address the experience, effect, ethical considerations, and cultural politics of working with mortuary archaeology. Whilst some papers reflect institutional or organizational approaches, others are more personal in their view: creating exciting and frank insights into contemporary issues that have hitherto often remained "unspoken" among the discipline. Reframing funerary archaeologists as "death-workers" of a kind, the contributors reflect on their own experience to provide both guidance and inspiration to future practitioners, arguing strongly that we have a central role to play in engaging the public with themes of mortality and commemoration, through the lens of the past. Spurred by the recent debates in the UK, papers from Scandinavia, Austria, Italy, the US, and the mid-Atlantic, frame these issues within a much wider international context that highlights the importance of cultural and historical context in which this work takes place.

scholarly journals Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nouvellet ◽  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Anne Cori ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Marc Baguelin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Strict Control ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Proxy Measure ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February–March 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2392
Author(s):  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Sung-Mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Ryosuke Omori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Actual Incidence

Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no symptoms during the initial months of the outbreak. We therefore aimed to predict the actual number of COVID-19 cases in (i) Hokkaido Prefecture and (ii) Sapporo city using data on cases diagnosed outside these areas. Two statistical frameworks involving a balance equation and an extrapolated linear regression model with a negative binomial link were used for deriving both estimates, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence in Hokkaido as of 27 February was 2,297 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 382–7091) based on data on travelers outbound from Hokkaido. The cumulative incidence in Sapporo city as of 28 February was estimated at 2233 cases (95% CI: 0–4893) based on the count of confirmed cases within Hokkaido. Both approaches resulted in similar estimates, indicating a higher incidence of infections in Hokkaido than were detected by the surveillance system. This quantification of the gap between detected and estimated cases helped to inform the public health response at the beginning of the pandemic and provided insight into the possible scope of undetected transmission for future assessments.

scholarly journals Viola Bernard and the case study of race in post-war America

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joy Damousi
Keyword(s):  
Race Relations ◽  
Public Domain ◽  
Us History ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Relationship

It is in the US that the case study genre is reinvented within a politicised psychiatric-psychoanalytical framework in the work of Viola Bernard. Bernard’s writings pose enduring questions about the relationship between activism and US psychiatry, politics and race relations. This chapter traces Bernard’s efforts to develop a new, authoritative and politically effective narrative through her case notes and advocacy about black subjects. This involved mobilising the case study genre in the public domain at large, for political as well as medical purposes, in the context of a turbulent period in US history.

scholarly journals O paradigma científico no discurso da mídia brasileira sobre Zika e microcefalia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Juliane Lopes Ferreira dos Santos ◽  
Denise Silva Matias ◽  
Nauana Nascimento Novais
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Scientific Paradigm ◽  
Scientific Debate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Biological Causation ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction: In 2015 Brazil was surprised by an increase in the incidence of microcephaly, related by the Ministry of Health to Zika virus infection during pregnancy. This theme, which was notorious for public health, reached wide popular repercussion through the media. Objectives: To describe the presence of the scientific paradigm in the discourse of health professionals, researchers or journalists who inform the lay public about biological causation. Methodology: All the news made available on the digital platform of the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, containing the key term "Zika and microcephalia" and published between November 11, 2015 and March 4, 2016, was performed. Scientific elucidation on the subject. The news items were classified as to the presence of certainty or uncertainty about the relationship between Zika and microcephaly in their content and the central idea in the subject titles. Results: Of the 387 reports analyzed, 51.4% related Zika as a causal factor of microcephaly, while 32.8% considered the presence of uncertainty in the relationship. It was verified that the newspaper privileged subjects related to the repercussions due to the diseases, being predominant the report of control measures. Considering the origin of the news, it was significant the use of official sources, presented in 82% of the news. Conclusion: The scientific paradigm was disregarded, ignoring the uncertainty principle and the scientific debate. The limitations of both journalists and health managers were also demonstrated in the elaboration of an effective communication with the public in emergency situations.

Normative justification for public arts funding: what can we learn from linking arts consumption and arts policy in Israel?

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tal Feder
Keyword(s):  
Public Funding ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Arts Organizations ◽  
Arts Funding ◽  
Arts Policy ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Normative Justification ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis article studies the socioeconomics of government public expenditure for the arts and the normative foundations of state intervention in the arts. I pose two interrelated research questions: (a) what is the relationship between the public funding of the arts and their consumption? and (b) what mode of justification and what perception of the place of art in society is reflected in this relationship? Based on the philosophical work of Alan Badiou, I develop a novel conceptual framework to delineate three types of normative justifications for the public funding of arts organizations: romantic, didactic and classical. Using data from the public funding of 92 orchestras, theaters and dance troupes in Israel between 1999 and 2011, I estimate a cross-lagged panel data model to study how arts funding both affects and is affected by the levels of consumption of the organizations’ productions. The results of the study show a complex pattern of different relationships between funding and consumption that accord with the three types of normative justifications for public arts funding.

The Key Organisational Issues Affecting E-Government Adoption in Saudi Arabia

2011 ◽  
pp. 257-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah AL Shehry ◽  
Simon Rogerson ◽  
N. Ben Fairweather ◽  
Mary Prior
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
National Project ◽  
The Public ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Government Body ◽  
The Relationship

The e-government paradigm refers to utilizing the potential of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in the whole government body to meet citizens’ expectations via multiple channels. It is, therefore, a radical change within the public sector and in the relationship between a government and its stakeholders. In the light of that, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a keen interest in this issue and thus it has developed a national project to implement e-government systems. However, many technological, managerial, and organisational issues must be considered and treated carefully before and after going online. Based on an empirical study, this article highlights the key organisational issues that affect e-government adoption in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at both national and agency levels.

scholarly journals The Determinants of CDS Spreads in Multiple Industry Sectors: A Comparison between the US and Europe

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jatin Malhotra ◽  
Angelo Corelli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Industry Sectors ◽  
The Relationship

The paper analyzes the relationship between the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for 5-year CDS in Europe and US, and fundamental macroeconomic variables such as regional stock indices, oil prices, gold prices, and interest rates. The dataset includes consideration of multiple industry sectors in both economies, and it is split in two sections, before and after the global financial crisis. The analysis is carried out using multivariate regression of each index vs. the macroeconomic variables, and a Granger causality test. Both approaches are performed on the change of value of the variables involved. Results show that equity markets lead in price discovery, bidirectional causality between interest rate, and CDS spreads for most sectors involved. There is also bidirectional causality between stock and oil returns to CDS spreads.

scholarly journals Is COVID-19 the end of US hegemony? Public bads, leadership failures and monetary hegemony

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (5) ◽  
pp. 1281-1303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Norrlöf
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Public Bads ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract COVID-19 is the most invasive global crisis in the postwar era, jeopardizing all dimensions of human activity. By theorizing COVID-19 as a public bad, I shed light on one of the great debates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries regarding the relationship between the United States and liberal international order (LIO). Conceptualizing the pandemic as a public bad, I analyze its consequences for US hegemony. Unlike other international public bads and many of the most important public goods that make up the LIO, the COVID-19 public bad not only has some degree of rivalry but can be made partially excludable, transforming it into more of a club good. Domestically, I demonstrate how the failure to effectively manage the COVID-19 public bad has compromised America's ability to secure the health of its citizens and the domestic economy, the very foundations for its international leadership. These failures jeopardize US provision of other global public goods. Internationally, I show how the US has already used the crisis strategically to reinforce its opposition to free international movement while abandoning the primary international institution tasked with fighting the public bad, the World Health Organization (WHO). While the only area where the United States has exercised leadership is in the monetary sphere, I argue this feat is more consequential for maintaining hegemony. However, even monetary hegemony could be at risk if the pandemic continues to be mismanaged.

Religion and the Public School Curriculum

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Feinberg
Keyword(s):  
Public Schools ◽  
School Curriculum ◽  
Background Information ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Teaching Religion ◽  
Humanistic Study ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter provides background information on the relationship between religion and public schools and then describes the different kinds of religion courses currently offered in some public schools. While the US Supreme Court has banned compulsory devotional religious exercises, it has not banned the nondevotional teaching of religion. The different types of religion courses command different kinds of justifications, and the legal and educational merits of these justifications are presented. The author concludes by proposing a case for teaching religion that is both constitutionally and educationally acceptable. This case rests upon the importance of the development of autonomy to the liberal tradition, and it shows how the teaching of religion as a humanistic study can serve this ideal.

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