scholarly journals COVID-19: A Comparison of Time Series Methods to Forecast Percentage of Active Cases per Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Papastefanopoulos ◽  
Pantelis Linardatos ◽  
Sotiris Kotsiantis
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health System ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Time Series Modeling ◽  
Learning Time ◽  
Raising Awareness ◽  
The Impact

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused worldwide socioeconomic unrest, forcing governments to introduce extreme measures to reduce its spread. Being able to accurately forecast when the outbreak will hit its peak would significantly diminish the impact of the disease, as it would allow governments to alter their policy accordingly and plan ahead for the preventive steps needed such as public health messaging, raising awareness of citizens and increasing the capacity of the health system. This study investigated the accuracy of a variety of time series modeling approaches for coronavirus outbreak detection in ten different countries with the highest number of confirmed cases as of 4 May 2020. For each of these countries, six different time series approaches were developed and compared using two publicly available datasets regarding the progression of the virus in each country and the population of each country, respectively. The results demonstrate that, given data produced using actual testing for a small portion of the population, machine learning time series methods can learn and scale to accurately estimate the percentage of the total population that will become affected in the future.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of the Diabetes Mellitus Strategy for the National Health System: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 873
Author(s):  
Marta González-Touya ◽  
Rocío Carmona ◽  
Antonio Sarría-Santamera
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health System ◽  
National Health ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Macrovascular Complications ◽  
Secondary Diagnosis ◽  
The Impact

(1) Background: Diabetes mellitus is a significant public health problem. Macrovascular complications (stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and lower limb amputations (LLAs) represent the leading cause of morbi-mortality in DM. This work aims to evaluate the impact of the approval of the Diabetes Mellitus Strategy of the National Health System (SDM-NHS) on hospitalizations for those macrovascular complications related to DM; (2) Methods: Interrupted time series applying segmented regression models (Negative Binomial) adjusted for seasonality to data from hospital discharge records with a primary or secondary diagnosis of DM (code 250 ICD9MC); (3) Results: Between 2001 and 2015, there have been 7,302,750 hospital discharges with a primary or secondary diagnosis of DM. After the approval of the SDM-NHS, all the indicators showed a downward trend, modifying the previous trend in the indicators of AMI and LLA. The indicators of stroke and AMI also showed an immediate reduction in their rates; (4) Conclusions: After the approval of the SDM-NHS, an improvement has been observed in all the indicators of macrovascular complications of DM evaluated, although it is difficult to establish a causal relationship between the strategy and the effects observed. Interrupted time series is applicable for evaluating the impact of interventions in public health when experimental designs are not possible.

scholarly journals Preoperative multidisciplinary program for bariatric surgery: a proposal for the Brazilian Public Health System

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elinton Adami CHAIM ◽  
José Carlos PAREJA ◽  
Martinho Antonio GESTIC ◽  
Murillo Pimentel UTRINI ◽  
Everton CAZZO
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Bariatric Surgery ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Wound Dehiscence ◽  
Pulmonary Complications ◽  
Multidisciplinary Program ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Access To Surgery

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND Bariatric surgery has become the gold standard treatment for morbid obesity, but access to surgery remains difficult and low compliance to postoperative follow-up is common. To improve outcomes, enable access and optimize follow-up, we developed a multidisciplinary preoperative approach for bariatric surgery. OBJECTIVE To determine the impact of this program in the outcomes of bariatric surgery in the Brazilian public health system. METHODS A prospective evaluation of the individuals who underwent a preoperative multidisciplinary program for bariatric surgery and comparison of their surgical outcomes with those observed in the prospectively collected historical database of the individuals who underwent surgery before the beginning of the program. RESULTS There were 176 individuals who underwent the multidisciplinary program and 226 who did not. Individuals who underwent the program had significantly lower occurrence of the following variables: hospital stay; wound dehiscence; wound infection; pulmonary complications; anastomotic leaks; pulmonary thromboembolism; sepsis; incisional hernias; eventrations; reoperations; and mortality. Both loss of follow-up and weight loss failure were also significantly lower in the program group. CONCLUSION The adoption of a comprehensive preoperative multidisciplinary approach led to significant improvements in the postoperative outcomes and also in the compliance to the postoperative follow-up. It represents a reproducible and potentially beneficial approach within the context of the Brazilian public health system.

scholarly journals Impact of the Umoyo mother-infant pair model on HIV-positive mothers’ social support, perceived stigma and 12-month retention of their HIV-exposed infants in PMTCT Care: Evidence from a cluster randomised control trial in Zambia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sydney Chauwa Phiri ◽  
Sandra Mudhune ◽  
Margaret L Prust ◽  
Prudence Haimbe ◽  
Hilda Shakwelele ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Health System ◽  
T Test ◽  
Perceived Stigma ◽  
Hiv Exposed Infants ◽  
Pair Model ◽  
Hiv Exposed ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Infant Pair

Abstract Background Public health systems in resource-constrained settings have a critical role to play in the elimination of HIV transmission but are often financially constrained. This study is an evaluation of a mother-infant-pair model called “Umoyo”, which was designed to be low cost and scalable in a public health system. Facilities with the Umoyo model dedicate a clinic day to provide services to only HIV-exposed-infants (HEIs) and their mothers. Such models are in operation with reported success in Zambia but have not been rigorously tested. This work establishes whether the Umoyo model would improve 12-month retention of HEIs. Methods A cluster randomized trial including 28 facilities was conducted across two provinces of Zambia to investigate the impact on 12-month retention of HEIs in care. These facilities were offering prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) services and supported by the same implementing partner. Randomization was achieved by use of the covariate constrained optimization technique. Secondary outcomes included the impact of Umoyo clinics on social support and perceived HIV stigma among mothers. For each of the outcomes, a difference-in-difference analysis was conducted at the facility level using the unweighted t-test. Results From 13 control (12-month retention at endline: 45%) and 11 intervention facilities (12-month retention at endline: 33%), it was found that Umoyo clinics had no impact on 12-month retention of HEIs in the t-test (-11%; 99% CI: -40.1%, 17.2%). Regarding social support and stigma, the un-weighted t-test showed no impact though sensitivity tests showed that Umoyo had an impact on increasing social support (0.31; 99% CI: 0.08, 0.54) and reducing perceived stigma from health care workers (-0.27: 99% CI: -0.46, -0.08). Conclusion The Umoyo approach of having a dedicated clinic day for HEIs and their mothers did not improve retention of HEIs though there are indications that it can increase social support among mothers and reduce stigma. Without further support to the underlying health system, based on the evidence generated through this evaluation, the Umoyo clinic day approach on its own is not considered an effective intervention to increase retention of HIV-exposed infants.

scholarly journals Modeling Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae episodes’ evolution in France over 2010-2020

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Roux ◽  
N Nekkab ◽  
P Astagneau ◽  
P Crépey
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Patient Safety ◽  
Healthcare Associated Infections ◽  
Time Series Modeling ◽  
National Healthcare ◽  
Response System ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Healthcare Associated

Abstract Background Incidence of Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) episodes within hospitals is rising at an alarming rate and threaten health systems and patient safety worldwide. Their number is growing in France since 2009 associated with inter-regional dissemination and importation of international cases. This study aimed at describing the dynamics of CPE episodes in France over 2010-2016 and forecasting their evolution for 2017-2020. Methods Surveillance data of CPE episodes (imported and non-imported) from August 2010 to November 2016 were issued from the French national Healthcare-Associated Infections Early Warning and Response System. Impact of seasonality on the number of CPE episodes was analyzed using seasonal-to-irregular ratios. Seven models issued from time series analysis and three ensemble stacking models (average, convex and linear stacking) were used to describe and forecast CPE episodes. The model with the best forecasting’s quality was then trained on all available data (2010-2016) and used to predict CPE episodes over 2017-2020. Results Over 2010-2016, 3,559 CPE episodes were observed in France. Compared to the average yearly trend, we observed a 30% increase in the number of CPE episodes in September and October. On the opposite, a decrease of 20% was noticed in February compared to other months. We also noticed a 1-month lagged seasonality of non-imported episodes compared to imported ones. The number of non-imported episodes appeared to grow faster than imported ones starting from 2014. Average stacking gave the best forecasts and predicted an increase over 2017-2020 with a peak up to 345 CPE episodes (95% PI [124-1,158], 80% PI [171-742]) in September 2020. Conclusions The number of CPE episodes is predicted to rise in the next years in France because of non-imported episodes. These results could help public health authorities in the definition and evaluation of new containment strategies. Key messages Time series modeling predicts an increase in the number of CPE episodes in France in the next few years with a quicker rise of non-imported episodes. An increase of 30% in the number of CPE episodes was observed in September and October with a 1-month lagged seasonality impact of non-imported episodes compared to imported one.

DATimeS: A machine learning time series GUI toolbox for gap-filling and vegetation phenology trends detection

2020 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 104666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Belda ◽  
Luca Pipia ◽  
Pablo Morcillo-Pallarés ◽  
Juan Pablo Rivera-Caicedo ◽  
Eatidal Amin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
Gap Filling ◽  
Learning Time

Public health impacts of culture independent diagnostic testing in Australia

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 162
Author(s):  
Fiona J May
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Testing Protocol ◽  
Culture Independent ◽  
The Impact

Culture independent diagnostic tests (CIDT) for detection of pathogens in clinical specimens have become widely adopted in Australian pathology laboratories. Pathology laboratories are the primary source of notification of pathogens to state and territory surveillance systems. Monitoring and analysis of surveillance data is integral to guiding public health actions to reduce the incidence of disease and respond to outbreaks. As with any change in testing protocol, the advantages and disadvantages of the change from culture based testing to culture independent testing need to be weighed up and the impact on surveillance and outbreak detection assessed. This article discusses the effect of this change in testing on surveillance and public health management of pathogens in Australia, with specific focus on gastrointestinal pathogens.

scholarly journals When complexity matters: a step-by-step guide to incorporating a complexity perspective in guideline development for public health and health system interventions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Movsisyan ◽  
E. Rehfuess ◽  
S. L. Norris
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Guideline Development ◽  
Decision Criteria ◽  
Evidence Mapping ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
Procedural Guidance ◽  
Main Message ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Guidelines on public health and health system interventions often involve considerations beyond effectiveness and safety to account for the impact that these interventions have on the wider systems in which they are implemented. This paper describes how a complexity perspective may be adopted in guideline development to facilitate a more nuanced consideration of a range of factors pertinent to decisions regarding public health and health system interventions. These factors include acceptability and feasibility, and societal, economic, and equity and equality implications of interventions. Main message A 5-step process describes how to incorporate a complexity perspective in guideline development with examples to illustrate each step. The steps include: (i) guideline scoping, (ii) formulating questions, (iii) retrieving and synthesising evidence, (iv) assessing the evidence, and (v) developing recommendations. Guideline scoping using stakeholder consultations, complexity features, evidence mapping, logic modelling, and explicit decision criteria is emphasised as a key step that informs all subsequent steps. Conclusions Through explicit consideration of a range of factors and enhanced understanding of the specific circumstances in which interventions work, a complexity perspective can yield guidelines with better informed recommendations and facilitate local adaptation and implementation. Further work will need to look into the methods of collecting and assessing different types of evidence beyond effectiveness and develop procedural guidance for prioritising across a range of decision criteria.

PP155 The Impact Of Lawsuits In The Brazilian Public Health System

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 141-141
Author(s):  
Carla Biella ◽  
Viviane Pereira ◽  
Fabiana Raynal ◽  
Jorge Barreto ◽  
Vania Canuto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Health Technologies ◽  
Access To Health ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUCTION:The increase of litigation in Brazil on the right to health, and the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) targets of litigation, are phenomena that generate discussions both in the judiciary, and among researchers and managers of health. The lawsuits are based on the integrality that includes the right to any health technology. Our aim was to gather information on the use of scientific evidence by judges and other law professionals to support their decisions in lawsuits involving health care in Brazil.METHODS:A narrative review by literature search using key terms of legalization in specific databases was conducted.RESULTS:Twenty-five studies showed litigation matters relating to health care which were focused on legal claims about drugs. In general, law operators used the scientific evidences in a limited way when making decisions, by considering the medical report and medication label indications and disregarding therapeutic alternatives contemplated in the SUS list. The access to health technologies, by litigation, reveals that the gap between scientific knowledge and legal practice are similar to those found between science and decision-making in the formulation and implementation of health policies. The Health Technology Assessment studies have high potential for use by the judiciary as a reference source to support technical and scientific decisions in lawsuits on health care.CONCLUSIONS:For the judiciary to ensure not only access to health technologies, but also the efficacy and safety of technologies to system users, their decisions must be substantiated by scientific evidence. The National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC) in SUS has established actions in conjunction with law operators and society, such as a communication using e-mail, aiding the decision for the injunction and elaboration of technical reports and a policy brief, with the intention that the decisions are taken with the greatest possible knowledge about technologies provided by SUS, and based on scientific evidence.

scholarly journals Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Sparks ◽  
T. Keighley ◽  
D. Muscatello
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Exponential Weights ◽  
Health Records ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Weighted Moving Average

Automated public health records provide the necessary data for rapid outbreak detection. An adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plan is developed for signalling unusually high incidence when monitoring a time series of nonhomogeneous daily disease counts. A Poisson transitional regression model is used to fit background/expected trend in counts and provides “one-day-ahead” forecasts of the next day's count. Departures of counts from their forecasts are monitored. The paper outlines an approach for improving early outbreak data signals by dynamically adjusting the exponential weights to be efficient at signalling local persistent high side changes. We emphasise outbreak signals in steady-state situations; that is, changes that occur after the EWMA statistic had run through several in-control counts.

scholarly journals Breast Feeding in Pandemic Situation. How Does Sri Lanka Face the Challenge?

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 214-214
Author(s):  
Neerodha Dharmasoma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Health System ◽  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Feeding Practices ◽  
Health Staff ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Public Health Staff ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives Sri Lanka has been awarded the first-ever ‘Green’ breastfeeding (BF) nation status by the World Breastfeeding Trends Initiative (WBTi) in January 2020 (1) with the support of public health system. But, deviating attention of health services towards emergency pandemic situation has resulted in strained health systems and interruptions in humanitarian response leading to eroding access to essential and often life-saving nutrition services. Therefore, optimal breast feeding practices are at risk due to infected mothers’ isolation practices, exhausted public health system and misbeliefs among the community (2). This finds out how Sri Lanka plans to maintain high standards of breast feeding in pandemic situation. Methods We searched for the publications on breast feeding, Sri Lanka in pandemic situation from January 2020 to date. Results As a low and middle income country with an unbeatable public health system, Sri Lanka has already issued an interim guideline for public health staff in continuation maternal and child care services (3). It ensures domiciliary visits by public health midwives (PHMs), although the clinic based teaching sessions on breast feeding have been cancelled. Community awareness has been created that no evidence of transmission of SARS COV-2 via breast milk is available and how the benefits of breast feeding outweigh the risk of infection (4). It is recommended that breast feeding shouldn't be interrupted at all and hand hygienic practices before touching the baby are ideal. Infected mothers can wear a protective mask and rooming in, and kangaroo mother care should be practiced. Sri Lanka already had guidelines on ensuring adequate and appropriate infant feeding guidelines in emergency situations (5). Conclusions Despite the challenges faced by community and public health staff, Sri Lanka make efforts to maintain the achieved breast feeding standards. Further studies are needed to assess the impact of the pandemic on breast feeding practices in near future. Funding Sources None

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