scholarly journals How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Bootan Rahman ◽  
Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw ◽  
Grace O. Agaba ◽  
Fahad Al Basir
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Numerical Investigations ◽  
Significant Parameter ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Sensitivity Indices ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Parsimonious Model

In this paper, the aim is to capture the global pandemic of COVID-19 with parameters that consider the interactions among individuals by proposing a mathematical model. The introduction of a parsimonious model captures both the isolation of symptomatic infected individuals and population lockdown practices in response to containment policies. Local stability and basic reproduction numbers are analyzed. Local sensitivity indices of the parameters of the proposed model are calculated, using the non-normalization, half-normalization, and full-normalization techniques. Numerical investigations show that the dynamics of the system depend on the model parameters. The infection transmission rate (as a function of the lockdown parameter) for both reported and unreported symptomatic infected peoples is a significant parameter in spreading the infection. A nationwide public lockdown decreases the number of infected cases and stops the pandemic’s peak from occurring. The results obtained from this study are beneficial worldwide for developing different COVID-19 management programs.

scholarly journals Worldwide Effectiveness of Various Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Control Strategies on the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: A Linearised Control Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Naude ◽  
Bruce Mellado ◽  
Joshua Choma ◽  
Fabio Correa ◽  
Salah Dahbi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Adjustment Time ◽  
The Us ◽  
Clinical Advances

Background COVID-19 is a virus which has lead to a global pandemic. Worldwide, more than 130 countries have imposed severe restrictions, which form part of a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)s. We aimed to quantify the country-specific effects of these NPIs and compare them using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) stringency index, p, as a measure of NPI stringency. Methods We developed a dual latent/observable Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths (SIRD) model and applied it on each of 22 countries and 25 states in the US using publicly available data. The observable model parameters were extracted using kernel functions. The regression of the transmission rate, β, as a function of p in each locale was modeled through the intervention leverage, αs, an initial transmission rate, β0 and a typical adjustment time, br-1. Results The world average for the intervention leverage, αs=0.01 (95% CI 0.0102 - 0.0112) had an ensemble standard deviation of 0.0017 (95% C.I. 0.0014 - 0.0021), strongly indicating a universal behavior. Discussion Our study indicates that removing NPIs too swiftly will result in the resurgence of the spread within one to two months, in alignment with the current WHO recommendations. Moreover, we have quantified and are able to predict the effect of various combinations of NPIs. There is a minimum NPI level, below which leads to resurgence of the outbreak (in the absence of pharmaceutical and clinical advances). For the epidemic to remain sub-critical, the rate with which the intervention leverage αs increases should outpace that of the relaxation of NPIs.

scholarly journals Bifurcation analysis of a SEIR epidemic system with governmental action and individual reaction

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelhamid Ajbar ◽  
Rubayyi T. Alqahtani
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Periodic Behavior ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Individual Reaction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Governmental Action

Abstract In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a SEIR epidemic system that takes into account governmental action and individual reaction is investigated. The transmission rate takes into account the impact of governmental action modeled as a step function while the decreasing contacts among individuals responding to the severity of the pandemic is modeled as a decreasing exponential function. We show that the proposed model is capable of predicting Hopf bifurcation points for a wide range of physically realistic parameters for the COVID-19 disease. In this regard, the model predicts periodic behavior that emanates from one Hopf point. The model also predicts stable oscillations connecting two Hopf points. The effect of the different model parameters on the existence of such periodic behavior is numerically investigated. Useful diagrams are constructed that delineate the range of periodic behavior predicted by the model.

In-Plane Flexible Ring Tire Model—Part 1: Modeling and Parameter Identification

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 174-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Li ◽  
Xiaobo Yang ◽  
James Yang ◽  
Yunqing Zhang ◽  
Zeyu Ma
Keyword(s):  
Static Load ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Tire Model ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Lumped Mass ◽  
Virtual Test ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Particle Swarm Method ◽  
Vehicle Dynamic Simulation ◽  
Flexible Ring

ABSTRACT The tire model is essential for accurate and efficient vehicle dynamic simulation. In this article, an in-plane flexible ring tire model is proposed, in which the tire is composed of a rigid rim, a number of discretized lumped mass belt points, and numerous massless tread blocks attached on the belt. One set of tire model parameters is identified by approaching the predicted results with ADAMS® FTire virtual test results for one particular cleat test through the particle swarm method using MATLAB®. Based on the identified parameters, the tire model is further validated by comparing the predicted results with FTire for the static load-deflection tests and other cleat tests. Finally, several important aspects regarding the proposed model are discussed.

EXPONENTIATED HALF-LOGISTIC LOMAX DISTRIBUTION WITH PROPERTIES AND APPLICATION

2019 ◽  
Vol XVI (2) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Farrukh Jamal ◽  
Hesham Mohammed Reyad ◽  
Soha Othman Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Akbar Ali Shah ◽  
Emrah Altun
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Lomax Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Properties ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probability Weighted Moment ◽  
Record Statistics ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Criterion

A new three-parameter continuous model called the exponentiated half-logistic Lomax distribution is introduced in this paper. Basic mathematical properties for the proposed model were investigated which include raw and incomplete moments, skewness, kurtosis, generating functions, Rényi entropy, Lorenz, Bonferroni and Zenga curves, probability weighted moment, stress strength model, order statistics, and record statistics. The model parameters were estimated by using the maximum likelihood criterion and the behaviours of these estimates were examined by conducting a simulation study. The applicability of the new model is illustrated by applying it on a real data set.

scholarly journals A General Temperature-Dependent Stress–Strain Constitutive Model for Polymer-Bonded Composite Materials

Polymers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1393
Author(s):  
Xiaochang Duan ◽  
Hongwei Yuan ◽  
Wei Tang ◽  
Jingjing He ◽  
Xuefei Guan
Keyword(s):  
Composite Materials ◽  
Constitutive Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Stress Strain ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Single Temperature ◽  
Testing Data ◽  
Bonded Composite ◽  
Tension And Compression

This study develops a general temperature-dependent stress–strain constitutive model for polymer-bonded composite materials, allowing for the prediction of deformation behaviors under tension and compression in the testing temperature range. Laboratory testing of the material specimens in uniaxial tension and compression at multiple temperatures ranging from −40 ∘C to 75 ∘C is performed. The testing data reveal that the stress–strain response can be divided into two general regimes, namely, a short elastic part followed by the plastic part; therefore, the Ramberg–Osgood relationship is proposed to build the stress–strain constitutive model at a single temperature. By correlating the model parameters with the corresponding temperature using a response surface, a general temperature-dependent stress–strain constitutive model is established. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model are validated using several independent sets of testing data and third-party data. The performance of the proposed model is compared with an existing reference model. The validation and comparison results show that the proposed model has a lower number of parameters and yields smaller relative errors. The proposed constitutive model is further implemented as a user material routine in a finite element package. A simple structural example using the developed user material is presented and its accuracy is verified.

scholarly journals A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfredo Angulo ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Dany De Cecchis ◽  
Juan Primera ◽  
Henry Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probable Site ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than $$4\%$$ 4 % . The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Abdul Kuddus ◽  
M. Mohiuddin ◽  
Azizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Double Dose ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractAlthough the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) , and if greater than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 > 1 ) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 and measles prevalence $$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$ I ∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate $$(\upbeta )$$ ( β ) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Groendyke ◽  
Adam Combs
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Infectious State

Abstract Objectives: Diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 have novel features that require modifications to the standard network-based stochastic SEIR model. In particular, we introduce modifications to this model to account for the potential changes in behavior patterns of individuals upon becoming symptomatic, as well as the tendency of a substantial proportion of those infected to remain asymptomatic. Methods: Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the exposed and infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We then consider the effects of a more complex network model. Results: We find that the mean length of time spent in the infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important. We also find that the network structure has a significant impact on the dynamics of the disease spread. Conclusions: In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease.

scholarly journals Flexural behavior of composite structural insulated panels with magnesium oxide board facings

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Łukasz Smakosz ◽  
Ireneusz Kreja ◽  
Zbigniew Pozorski
Keyword(s):  
Magnesium Oxide ◽  
Material Model ◽  
Expanded Polystyrene ◽  
Flexural Behavior ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fe Model ◽  
Computational Results ◽  
Four Point Bending ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract The current report is devoted to the flexural analysis of a composite structural insulated panel (CSIP) with magnesium oxide board facings and expanded polystyrene (EPS) core, that was recently introduced to the building industry. An advanced nonlinear FE model was created in the ABAQUS environment, able to simulate the CSIP’s flexural behavior in great detail. An original custom code procedure was developed, which allowed to include material bimodularity to significantly improve the accuracy of computational results and failure mode predictions. Material model parameters describing the nonlinear range were identified in a joint analysis of laboratory tests and their numerical simulations performed on CSIP beams of three different lengths subjected to three- and four-point bending. The model was validated by confronting computational results with experimental results for natural scale panels; a good correlation between the two results proved that the proposed model could effectively support the CSIP design process.

scholarly journals Mixture of Inverse Weibull and Lognormal Distributions: Properties, Estimation, and Illustration

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Sultan ◽  
A. S. Al-Moisheer
Keyword(s):  
Information Matrix ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Component Mixture ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hazard Functions ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Estimation Of Model Parameters

We discuss the two-component mixture of the inverse Weibull and lognormal distributions (MIWLND) as a lifetime model. First, we discuss the properties of the proposed model including the reliability and hazard functions. Next, we discuss the estimation of model parameters by using the maximum likelihood method (MLEs). We also derive expressions for the elements of the Fisher information matrix. Next, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model by fitting it to a real data set. Finally, we draw some concluding remarks.

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