Dynamics of HIV-TB Co-Infection Model

According to World Health Organization (WHO), the population suffering from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection over a period of time may suffer from TB infection which increases the death rate. There is no cure for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) to date but antiretrovirals (ARVs) can slow down the progression of disease as well as prevent secondary infections or complications. This is considered as a medication in this paper. This scenario of HIV-TB co-infection is modeled using a system of non-linear differential equations. This model considers HIV-infected individual as the initial stage. Four equilibrium points are found. Reproduction number R0 is calculated. If R0 >1 disease persists uniformly, with reference to the reproduction number, backward bifurcation is computed for pre-AIDS (latent) stage. Global stability is established for the equilibrium points where there is no Pre-AIDS TB class, point without co-infection and for the endemic point. Numerical simulation is carried out to validate the data. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics.

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Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17093054 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (9) ◽

pp. 3054 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Oyelola A. Adegboye ◽

Adeshina I. Adekunle ◽

Ezra Gayawan

Keyword(s):

Doubling Time ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Infected Individual ◽

Credible Interval ◽

World Health ◽

Time Interval ◽

Serial Interval ◽

Imported Cases ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28–15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65–8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83–7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

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Novel Coronavirus in Nigeria: Epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of the pandemic

10.1101/2020.04.14.20064949 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Oyelola A. Adegboye ◽

Adeshina I. Adekunle ◽

Ezra Gayawan

Keyword(s):

Doubling Time ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Infected Individual ◽

World Health ◽

Time Interval ◽

Epidemiological Analysis ◽

Serial Interval ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization ◽

Local Transmission

AbstractBackgroundOn December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus in China that was later named COVID-19. On March 11, 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on February 27, 2020.MethodsThis study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria quantifying. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector) and adjusted for disease importation.FindingsBy April 11, 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.05 – 0.10) with doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28 – 15.18). Separately for travel related and local cases the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using three-weekly window while adjusting for travel related cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65 – 8.41) at day 22 (March 19, 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% CrI: 3.83 –7.88) at day 25 (March 22, 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value at April 11, 2020 was 1.42 (95% CI: 1.26 – 1.58).InterpretationThese 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.FundingNone

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New Efavirenz Derivatives and 1,2,3-Triazolyl-phosphonates as Inhibitors of Reverse Transcriptase of HIV-1

Current Topics in Medicinal Chemistry ◽

10.2174/1568026618666181029150118 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (17) ◽

pp. 1494-1505 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Carolina C.P. Costa ◽

Nubia Boechat ◽

Monica M. Bastos ◽

Fernando de C. da Silva ◽

Andressa Marttorelli ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reverse Transcriptase ◽

Triazole Ring ◽

Biological Evaluation ◽

World Health ◽

Hiv Reverse Transcriptase ◽

Ic50 Values ◽

Health Organization ◽

Hiv Drugs ◽

Immunodeficiency Syndrome ◽

New Compounds

Background: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the fight against Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is still one of the most significant challenges facing humanity. Worldwide, it is estimated that 36.7 million people are infected by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Despite the variety of available drugs, the search for new enzymatic inhibitors of HIV is still important due to the presence of adverse effects and the development of resistant strains. Therefore, the present study aimed to design, synthesize, and biologically evaluate novel inhibitors of HIV Reverse Transcriptase (RT). Materials and Methods: These compounds were obtained in two series, and compounds in both series contain a 1,2,3-triazole ring in their structures. The compounds in the first series are Efavirenz (EFV) analogues with the N-1 position substituted by another important fragment as described in the medicinal chemistry literature on anti-HIV drugs. The second series has a phosphonate chain similar to that in the structure of Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF). Results and Conclusion: The results of the biological evaluation showed that all compounds presented high RT inhibition values and lower or comparable inhibitory concentrations (the concentration needed to reduce the enzymatic activity by 50%, IC50 values, 0.8-1.9 µM). Among the compounds in the first series, the three with the lowest IC50 values had values between 0.8-0.9 µM, and of those in the second series, the most potent had an IC50 value of 1.1 µM; compounds in both series were equipotent to TDF (1.2 µM). Thus, the new compounds could be considered lead compounds for the development of new antiretroviral compounds.

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Effectiveness of Face Masks in Reducing the Spread of COVID-19: A Model-Based Analysis

Medical Decision Making ◽

10.1177/0272989x211019029 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0272989X2110190

Author(s):

Isabelle J. Rao ◽

Jacqueline J. Vallon ◽

Margaret L. Brandeau

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Infected Individual ◽

Disease Model ◽

World Health ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Health Organization ◽

Almost All ◽

Mask Effectiveness

Background The World Health Organization and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that both infected and susceptible people wear face masks to protect against COVID-19. Methods We develop a dynamic disease model to assess the effectiveness of face masks in reducing the spread of COVID-19, during an initial outbreak and a later resurgence, as a function of mask effectiveness, coverage, intervention timing, and time horizon. We instantiate the model for the COVID-19 outbreak in New York, with sensitivity analyses on key natural history parameters. Results During the initial epidemic outbreak, with no social distancing, only 100% coverage of masks with high effectiveness can reduce the effective reproductive number [Formula: see text] below 1. During a resurgence, with lowered transmission rates due to social distancing measures, masks with medium effectiveness at 80% coverage can reduce [Formula: see text] below 1 but cannot do so if individuals relax social distancing efforts. Full mask coverage could significantly improve outcomes during a resurgence: with social distancing, masks with at least medium effectiveness could reduce [Formula: see text] below 1 and avert almost all infections, even with intervention fatigue. For coverage levels below 100%, prioritizing masks that reduce the risk of an infected individual from spreading the infection rather than the risk of a susceptible individual from getting infected yields the greatest benefit. Limitations Data regarding COVID-19 transmission are uncertain, and empirical evidence on mask effectiveness is limited. Our analyses assume homogeneous mixing, providing an upper bound on mask effectiveness. Conclusions Even moderately effective face masks can play a role in reducing the spread of COVID-19, particularly with full coverage, but should be combined with social distancing measures to reduce [Formula: see text] below 1. [Box: see text]

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Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-95913-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Md Abdul Kuddus ◽

M. Mohiuddin ◽

Azizur Rahman

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Equilibrium Points ◽

Rank Correlation ◽

Dynamical Analysis ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Progression Rate ◽

Double Dose ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractAlthough the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) , and if greater than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 > 1 ) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 and measles prevalence $$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$ I ∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate $$(\upbeta )$$ ( β ) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.

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Obesity And Covid-19: A Descriptive Review

10.34256/mdnt21113 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 73-79

Author(s):

Cibele Alexandra Ferro ◽

◽

Manuela Guedes Pereira ◽

Maria Júlia Busnardo Aguena ◽

Vítor Afonso Favaretto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

World Health Organization ◽

Systematic Reviews ◽

Risk Group ◽

Infected Individual ◽

World Health ◽

Data Platform ◽

The World ◽

Descriptive Approach ◽

Review Study ◽

Health Organization

Introduction: According to data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), 5,941,223 confirmed cases and 366,601 deaths had already been reported by May 31, 2020. Higher rates of infection, hospitalization, submission to the Intensive Care Units, and fatalities were attributed to obese patients. Objective: To gather the available data on obesity and SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study specifically covers combined pathophysiology and prognosis and will be updated until September 2020. Methods: This is a literature review study with a narrative-descriptive approach. The search was carried out in September 2020, with the totality of articles from that same year, when the pandemic of the new coronavirus was declared by the World Health Organization. Results: The search on the data platform resulted in 121 articles, of which 86 were classified as reviews and 35, systematic reviews, totaling 18 reviews and 7 systematic reviews at the end, with a total value of 16 articles with sufficient quality. Obesity is associated with increased severity of COVID-19 in the infected individual with this disease, due to the chronic inflammatory process, with high levels of pro-inflammatory leptin and a lower concentration of anti-inflammatory adiponectin, which causes a response delayed and inferior immune system. Conclusion: Individuals with this association have an easier time in the formation of possible clots, due to chronic inflammation and impaired fibrinolysis, which qualifies them as individuals of significant thrombogenic risk. Thus, individuals with obesity are an important risk group when considering its association with the disease of the new coronavirus.

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Multiplier method estimates of the population of men who have sex with men: the effect of privacy protection

Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/pubmed/fdz019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 42 (2) ◽

pp. 429-434

Author(s):

Liwei Jing ◽

Yuehua Cui ◽

Qing Lu ◽

Hongmei Yu

Keyword(s):

Hiv Testing ◽

Population Size ◽

Privacy Protection ◽

World Health ◽

Multiplier Method ◽

Nations Programme ◽

United Nations Programme ◽

Sex With Men ◽

Health Organization ◽

Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Abstract Objectives The stigmatization of men who have sex with men (MSM) has led to an underestimation of their population size. To address this, the United Nations Programme on HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome and World Health Organization developed a multiplier method. However, nearly all multiplier method estimates of MSM population size in China are far below national estimates. This study explores how privacy protection to address and avoid MSM stigmatization can affect reliable estimates. Methods Data from an MSM website, a bar, and a peer-based HIV testing were used to produce three multiplier method estimates of the MSM population size in Taiyuan, China, in 2014. The effect of privacy protection on stigmatization was explored by comparing the peer-based HIV testing with other estimates. We used a national estimate as a reference to verify potential underestimation. Results The website and bar estimates were 5- to 10-times and 8- to 16-times lower than the Chinese national estimate range, respectively. Conversely, the peer-based HIV testing estimate was within the national estimate range. Conclusions Though the multiplier method was developed to estimate the size of stigmatized populations, it might be affected by privacy protection addressing stigmatization; this should be considered when gathering data.

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2-Methyl-pentanoyl-carnitine (2-MPC): a urine biomarker for patent Ascaris lumbricoides infection

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-72804-y ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ole Lagatie ◽

Ann Verheyen ◽

Stijn Van Asten ◽

Maurice R. Odiere ◽

Yenny Djuardi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ascaris Lumbricoides ◽

Large Scale ◽

Infection Intensity ◽

World Health ◽

Infection Model ◽

Metabolome Analysis ◽

Control Programs ◽

Urine Biomarker ◽

Intestinal Worms ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Infections with intestinal worms, such as Ascaris lumbricoides, affect hundreds of millions of people in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Through large-scale deworming programs, World Health Organization aims to reduce moderate-to-heavy intensity infections below 1%. Current diagnosis and monitoring of these control programs are solely based on the detection of worm eggs in stool. Here we describe how metabolome analysis was used to identify the A. lumbricoides-specific urine biomarker 2-methyl pentanoyl carnitine (2-MPC). This biomarker was found to be 85.7% accurate in determining infection and 90.5% accurate in determining a moderate-to-heavy infection. Our results also demonstrate that there is a correlation between 2-MPC levels in urine and A. lumbricoides DNA detected in stool. Furthermore, the levels of 2-MPC in urine were shown to rapidly and strongly decrease upon administration of a standard treatment (single oral dose of 400 mg albendazole). In an Ascaris suum infection model in pigs, it was found that, although 2-MPC levels were much lower compared to humans, there was a significant association between urinary 2-MPC levels and both worm counts (p = 0.023) and the number of eggs per gram (epg) counts (p < 0.001). This report demonstrates that urinary 2-MPC can be considered an A. lumbricoides-specific biomarker that can be used to monitor infection intensity.

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Investigating the Role of Environmental Transmission in COVID-19 Dynamics: A Mathematical Model Based Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-32476/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ibrahim M. ELmojtaba ◽

Fatma Al-Musalhi ◽

Asma Al-Ghassani ◽

Nasser Al-Salti

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Equilibrium Points ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Environmental Transmission ◽

Estimated Parameters ◽

Existence And Stability

Abstract A mathematical model with environmental transmission has been proposed and analyzed to investigate its role in the transmission dynamics of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Two expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 have been analytically derived using the next generation matrix method. The two expressions composed of a combination of two terms related to human to human and environment to human transmissions. The value of R0 has been calculated using estimated parameters corresponding to two datasets. Sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number to the corresponding model parameters has been carried out. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been presented in relation with the obtained expressions of R0. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to environmental transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out and the results have been demonstrated graphically.

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Literasi Penyakit HIV-AIDS pada Siswa Madrasah Tsanawiah Negeri 1 Garut

Media Karya Kesehatan ◽

10.24198/mkk.v1i1.16796 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Dadang Purnama ◽

Witdiawati W

Keyword(s):

United Nations ◽

Hiv And Aids ◽

World Health ◽

Nations Programme ◽

United Nations Programme ◽

Post Test ◽

Acquired Immunodeficiency ◽

Health Organization ◽

Immunodeficiency Syndrome ◽

Hiv Aids

Abstrak Penyakit AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) merupakan salah satu penyakit yang mengakibatkan kematian di dunia. Menurut UNAIDS (United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS) dan WHO (World Health Organization), AIDS telah mengakibatkan kematian lebih dari 25 juta jiwa sejak pertama kali diakui tahun 1981, (Kent.et.al, 2010). Saat ini penularan HIV/AIDS di Kabupaten Garut telah mengalami pergeseran yang sebelumnya penyakit ini ditularkan melalui pengguna narkoba suntik sekarang berubah penularan melalui pasangan suami istri khususnya pada istri. Mengingat untuk HIV dan AIDS merupakan fenomena “gunung es” bahwa kasus yang terdata hanya cerminan sedikit kasus yang sebenarnya ada di masyarakat. Secara teori adanya 1 kasus HIV dan AIDS yang ada terdeteksi, kasus yang sebenarnya ada di masyarakat adalah 100 kasus. Metode yang digunakan dalam Kegiatan ini tujuannya adalah, memberikan informasi mengapa HIV-AIDS perlu mendapat perhatian khusus, serta bagaimana gejala-gejalanya karena HIV-AIDS adalah penyakit yang sampai saat ini belum ada obat untuk menanggulanginya dan hanya dapat dilakukan pencegahan.Tahapan selanjutnya Pelaksanaan Pre Test, Kegiatan ini dilakukan untuk menggali sejauh mana pengetahuan dan pemahaman para siswa mengenai penyakit HIV/AIDS dengan memberikan pertanyaan secara tertulis yang berhubungan dengan penyakit HIV/AIDS (soal pertanyaan pre test terlampir). Hasil yang didapat pada pre test menunjukan secara keseluruhan pertanyaan yang diajukan, para siswa hanya bisa menjawab dan memahami tentang materi penyakit HIV/AIDS sebesar 24%. Post test dilakukan setelah penyuluhan berakhir untuk mengetahui tingkat pengetahuan dan pemahaman siswa terhadap materi yang sudah diberikan. Adapun hasil post test menunjukan adanya peningkatan pemahaman tentang penyakit HIV/AIDS yang dibandingkan dengan hasil pre test yaitu sebesar 80% dari soal yang ditanyakan kepada para siswa.Penguatan keterampilan individu (Personnal Skill), dalam mewujudkan kesehatan secara keseluruhan, ketrampilan individu mutlak diperlukan, dalam hal ini siswa Madrasah Tsanawiah Negeri 1 Kabupaten Garut, untuk belajar melalui kehidupan dalam menyiapkan diri mereka untuk semua tingkatannya dan untuk menangani penyakit dan kecelakaan sangatlah penting.

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