scholarly journals Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

Diversity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 346
Author(s):  
Yann Fragnière ◽  
Loïc Pittet ◽  
Benoît Clément ◽  
Sébastien Bétrisey ◽  
Emanuel Gerber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Glacial Relict ◽  
Suitable Area

Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale, and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Fragnière ◽  
Loïc Pittet ◽  
Benoît Clément ◽  
Sébastien Bétrisey ◽  
Emanuel Gerber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacial Relict ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
Number Of Individuals

Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming and thus good models for studying the future biodiversity patterns of the Alps. We have used as a model taxon Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.). All known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale. The total number of individuals was estimated at 30756 (with 72% of all individuals in canton of Bern). The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing preferentially between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that suitable area will significantly decrease, for both the entire studied area (0-30% remaining) and sites nearby current P. occidentale populations (0-17% remaining). Under the most severe scenario, the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of such patchy environments as screes.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals A trait-based approach to assess climate change sensitivity of freshwater invertebrates across Swedish ecoregions

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard Sandin ◽  
Astrid Schmidt-Kloiber ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning ◽  
Erik Jeppesen ◽  
Nikolai Friberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Biological Data ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Measured Temperature ◽  
Buffer Strips

Abstract Freshwater habitats and organisms are among the most threatened on Earth, and freshwater ecosystems have been subject to large biodiversity losses. We developed a Climate Change Sensitivity (CCS) indicator based on trait information for a selection of stream- and lake-dwelling Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera taxa. We calculated the CCS scores based on ten species traits identified as sensitive to global climate change. We then assessed climate change sensitivity between the six main ecoregions of Sweden as well as the three Swedish regions based on Illies. This was done using biological data from 1, 382 stream and lake sites where we compared large-scale (ecoregional) patterns in climate change sensitivity with potential future exposure of these ecosystems to increased temperatures using ensemble-modelled future changes in air temperature. Current (1961~1990) measured temperature and ensemble-modelled future (2100) temperature showed an increase from the northernmost towards the southern ecoregions, whereas the predicted temperature change increased from south to north. The CCS indicator scores were highest in the two northernmost boreal ecoregions where we also can expect the largest global climate change-induced increase in temperature, indicating an unfortunate congruence of exposure and sensitivity to climate change. These results are of vital importance when planning and implementing management and conservation strategies in freshwater ecosystems, e.g., to mitigate increased temperatures using riparian buffer strips. We conclude that traits information on taxa specialization, e.g., in terms of feeding specialism or taxa having a preference for high altitudes as well as sensitivity to changes in temperature are important when assessing the risk from future global climate change to freshwater ecosystems.

scholarly journals Co-occurrence of extreme ozone and heat waves in two cities from Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenza KHOMSI 1,2 ◽  
Houda NAJMI 2 ◽  
Zineb SOUHAILI 1
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Factor ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Change Context

Temperature is the first meteorological factor to be directly involved in leading ozone (O3) extreme events. Generally, upward temperatures increase the probability of having exceedance in ozone adopted thresholds. In the global climate change context more frequent and/or persistent heat waves and extreme ozone (O3) episodes are likely to occur during in coming decades and a key question is about the coincidence and co-occurrence of these extremes. In this paper, using 7 years of surface temperature and air quality observations over two cities from Morocco (Casablanca and Marrakech) and implementing a percentile thresholding approach, we show that the extremes in temperature and ozone (O3) cluster together in many cases and that the outbreak of ozone events generally match the first or second days of heat waves. This co-occurrence of extreme episodes is highly impacted by humidity and may be overlapping large-scale episodes.

scholarly journals Predicting growth and habitat responses of Ginkgo biloba L. to climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Yue Lu ◽  
Yousry A. El-Kassaby ◽  
Lei Feng ◽  
Guibing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Key message We developed a climatic response function using 20-year tree height observed from 45Ginkgo bilobaplantations in China and used it to predict the growth and habitat responses to anticipated climate change. We projected northward and upward shifts in the species habitat and productive areas, but a dramatic contraction of the species distribution is unlikely to occur at least during the present century. Context Ginkgo biloba is the only living species in the division Ginkgophyta. The species exists in small natural populations in southeastern China but is cultivated across China and the world. The species’ future under climate change is of concern. Aims This study was initiated to model the species’ growth response to climate change and to predict its range of suitable habitat under future climates. Methods Using height data from 45 20 years old plantations growing under a wide range of climatic conditions across China, we developed univariate and bivariate climatic response functions to identify the climate requirements of the species. Results According to the amount of variance explained (> 70%) and the high level of agreement (> 99%) with independent species occurrence coordinates, the developed climate response function was highly accurate and credible. Projections for future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario indicated that the areas of potential suitable habitat would increase (25–67 million hectares). It would also be associated with northward (0.21–0.62° in latitude) and elevational (24–75 m) shifts. Conclusion Global climate change is projected to increase the area of potential suitable habitats for Ginkgo and shift its spatial distributions northward and upward.

Tracking Global Climate Change: Microfossil Record of the Planetary Heat Pump

1996 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 263-281
Author(s):  
Paul Loubere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Heat Distribution ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Scientific Disciplines ◽  
Distribution Process ◽  
Real Importance ◽  
Societal Interest

The objective of this exercise set is to integrate knowledge from several scientific disciplines and learn something interesting about the way the world works. I want to use some basic principles from physics, biology, and geology to see how a large scale planetary process, the transport of heat over the earths surface, operates and has operated over time. This topic is of basic scientific interest, and it has real importance to the growing societal interest in global climate change. This applies whether natural variation in climate or human induced change are under discussion. The set of exercises that follows will examine how energy is absorbed by the earth from the sun; how and why this energy is distributed over the earth's surface; what controls energy distribution; how we can track the energy distributing process using the oceanic microfossil record; and what that record shows us about variation of heat distribution with time. This is an exercise in global climate change because the climate system is driven by the heat distribution process.

scholarly journals Preliminary recognition of state of incorporating climate change impacts and adaptation considerations in SEA and EIA procedures for renewable energy projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 07004
Author(s):  
Magdalena Tyszer ◽  
Slávka Gałaś
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Implementation Climate ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Energy Projects

In the last years, the European Union has developed and set a several environmental policies whose imposes an obligation on Member States to implement specific actions, including incorporating climate change considerations into SEA and EIA processes. One of major environmental challenges facing most developing countries is that of global climate change. The aim of the research was to obtain a comprehensive review of existing SEA and EIA practical approaches for renewable energy installations in the aspect of adaptation to climate change with specific reference to Polish projects. Both SEA and EIA procedures implemented in Poland and other countries was introduced with the intent of factoring in potential risk to the environment by future large-scale project developments such as the construction of power plants, roads, or dams. The paper consist the initial recognition of available data of the current experience and level of implementation climate change impact and adaptions into local procedures. Preliminary results suggest that the additional funding should be given for climate change adaptation in the energy sector, especially in renewable energy projects, as well as specific interventions for climate-adapted energy systems should be targeted in order to fill the gap in RES sector and spur sustainable energy development.

The Frontier Research System for Global Change—The International Arctic Research Center (Frontier-IARC): its Origin and Tentative Science Plan

1999 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-84
Author(s):  
Jinro Ukila ◽  
Moloyoshi Ikeda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Research Center ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Research System

The Frontier Research System for Global Change—the International Arctic Research Center (Frontier-IARC) is a research program funded by the Frontier Research System for Global Change. The program is jointly run under a cooperative agreement between the Frontier Research System for Global Change and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The aim of the program is to understand the role of the Arctic region in global climate change. The program concentrates its research effort initially on the areas of air-sea-ice interactions, bio-geochemical processes and the ecosystem. To understand the arctic climate system in the context of global climate change, we focus on mechanisms controlling arctic-subarctic interactions, and identify three key components: the freshwater balance, the energy balance, and the large-scale atmospheric processes. Knowledge of details of these components and their interactions will be gained through long-term monitoring, process studies, and modeling; our focus will be on the latter two categories.

scholarly journals Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1778) ◽  
pp. 20190032 ◽  
Author(s):  
John I. Spicer ◽  
Simon A. Morley ◽  
Francisco Bozinovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Biodiversity Patterns ◽  
Biodiversity Crisis ◽  
Physiological Diversity ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Primary Output

Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen’.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1617-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Olaf Burghoff ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document