scholarly journals Density Dependence and Adult Survival Drive Dynamics in Two High Elevation Amphibian Populations

Diversity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 478
Author(s):  
Amanda M. Kissel ◽  
Simone Tenan ◽  
Erin Muths
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Amphibian Conservation ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Open Population

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

Lessons from a century of conservation translocations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane D Morris ◽  
Katherine E. Moseby ◽  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Christopher N. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Global Database ◽  
Terrestrial Vertebrates ◽  
Failure Classification ◽  
High Population Growth ◽  
Number Of Individuals

Translocation—moving individuals for release in different locations—is among the most important conservation interventions for increasing or re-establishing populations of threatened species. However, translocations often fail. To improve their effectiveness, we need to understand the features that distinguish successful from failed translocations. Here, we assembled and analysed a global database of translocations of terrestrial vertebrates (n=514) to assess the effects of various design features and extrinsic factors on success. We analysed outcomes using standardized metrics i.e. a categorical success/failure classification, and population growth rate. Probability of categorical success and population growth rate increased with the total number of individuals released but with diminishing returns above about 20-50 individuals. There has been no increase in numbers released per translocation over time. Positive outcomes—reported success and high population growth—were less likely for translocation in Oceania, possibly because invasive species are a major threat in this region and are difficult to control at translocation sites. Increased rates of categorical reported success and population growth were found for Europe and North America, suggesting the key role of historical context in positive translocation outcomes. Categorical success has increased throughout the 20th century, but that increase may have plateaued at about 75% since about 1990. Our results suggest there is potential for further increase in the success of conservation translocations. This could be best achieved by greater investment in individual projects, as indicated by total number of animals released.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Diagnosing declining grassland wader populations using simple matrix models

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lia Hemerik ◽  
Chris Klok ◽  
Maja Roodbergen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Matrix Models ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Adult Stage ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Survival And Reproduction

AbstractMany populations of wader species have shown a strong decline in number in Western-Europe in recent years. The use of simple population models such as matrix models can contribute to conserve these populations by identifying the most profitable management measures. Parameterization of such models is often hampered by the availability of demographic data (survival and reproduction). In particular, data on survival in the pre-adult (immature) stage of wader species that remain in wintering areas outside Europe are notoriously difficult to obtain, and are therefore virtually absent in the literature. To diagnose population decline in the wader species; Black-tailed Godwit, Curlew, Lapwing, Oystercatcher, and Redshank, we extended an existing modelling framework in which incomplete demographic data can be analysed, developed for species with a pre-adult stage of one year. The framework is based on a Leslie matrix model with three parameters: yearly reproduction (number of fledglings per pair), yearly pre-adult (immature) and yearly adult (mature) survival. The yearly population growth rate of these populations and the relative sensitivity of this rate to changes in survival and reproduction parameters (the elasticity) were calculated numerically and, if possible, analytically. The results showed a decrease in dependence on reproduction and an increase in pre-adult survival of the population growth rate with an increase in the duration of the pre-adult stage. In general, adult survival had the highest elasticity, but elasticity of pre-adult survival increased with time to first reproduction, a result not reported earlier. Model results showed that adult survival and reproduction estimates reported for populations of Redshank and Curlew were too low to maintain viable populations. Based on the elasticity patterns and the scope for increase in actual demographic parameters we inferred that conservation of the Redshank and both Curlew populations should focus on reproduction. For one Oystercatcher and the Black-tailed Godwit populations we suggested a focus on both reproduction and pre-adult survival. For the second Oystercatcher population pre-adult survival seemed the most promising target for conservation. And for the Lapwing populations all demographic parameters should be considered.

Population dynamics of an Egyptian desert shrub, Thymelaea hirsuta

1997 ◽  
Vol 75 (12) ◽  
pp. 2027-2037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
K. H. Shaltout ◽  
J. Lovett-Doust ◽  
A. Ramadan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Seedling Recruitment ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Plant Size ◽  
Population Variation ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Thymelaea Hirsuta ◽  
Egyptian Desert

Natural populations of the evergreen shrub, Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., were studied over 6 years at five desert habitats, in terms of seedling recruitment and adult survival and as a function of plant size and gender class. Habitat and time significantly influenced mortality of both reproductive and non-reproductive plants. Plant size also significantly affected adult mortality. Seedling recruitment varied significantly with habitat and year and approached zero some years. Significant among-year and among-population variation in population growth rates were observed over the 6 years of study, and all populations declined in size (ranging from −1.7% per year at the coastal dune site to −10.9% per year at the inland plateau site). Spearman rank correlation analysis between habitats ranked according to a north–south gradient and demographic variables indicates that this gradient is associated with a pattern of lower seedling emergence and survival and a lower population growth rate and greater mortality for all size-classes of Thymelaea plants. In experimental botanic garden plots, germination of seed collected from five natural populations, and seedling survival in the following year were assessed under conditions of high, medium, and low seedling density. Seedling emergency differed significantly according to maternal habitat. With regular watering, seeding survival to one year was 72% (averaged across habitats and densities). This compares with 64% for seedlings grown at the highest density, suggesting that the intense mortality observed under field conditions is more likely to be a result of water shortage than intraspecific competition. Key words: Egyptian desert, Thymelaea hirsuta, germination and establishment, seedlings, recruitment, competition, population growth rate.

scholarly journals Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10708
Author(s):  
Douglas C. Heard ◽  
Kathryn L. Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Supplemental Feeding ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Impact

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.

Effects of territorial status and life history on Sandhill Crane (Antigone canadensis) population dynamics in south-central Wisconsin, USA

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Wheeler ◽  
Jeb A. Barzen ◽  
Shawn M. Crimmins ◽  
Timothy R. Van Deelen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
South Central ◽  
Sandhill Cranes

Population growth rate in long-lived bird species is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis (Linnaeus, 1758)) have long life spans, small broods, and delayed first reproduction. Only territorial adult Sandhill Cranes participate in breeding, and territory acquisition reflects the interplay between the availability of suitable territories and the variation in mortality of adult birds occupying those territories. We estimated vital rates of a population at equilibrium using long-term resightings data (2000–2014; n = 451 marked individuals) in a multistate mark–resight model and used a stage-structured projection matrix to assess how strongly territorial adult survival affects population growth rate. Elasticity analysis indicated territorial birds surviving and retaining territories had a 2.58 times greater impact on population growth compared with the next most important transition rate (survival of nonterritorial adults remaining nonterritorial). Knowing how changes in vital rates of various stage classes will differentially impact population growth rate allows for targeted management actions including encouraging growth in recovering populations, assessing opportunity for recreational harvest, or maintaining populations at a desired level. This study also highlights the value of collecting demographic data for all population segments, from which one can derive reproductive output or growth rate.

scholarly journals Density dependence in the camelid Vicugna vicugna: the recovery of a protected population in Chile

Oryx ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bonacic ◽  
D. W. Macdonald ◽  
J. Galaz ◽  
R. M. Sibly
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Census Data ◽  
South American ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Vicugna Vicugna

The vicuña Vicugna vicugna is a wild South American camelid. Following over-exploitation, which brought the species to the brink of extinction in Chile in the 1960s, the population was protected. Since 1975 the population has been censused annually, generating one of the most extensive long-term census databases for any South American mammal. In this paper we use these data, and measures of environmental parameters, to describe the population growth trend of the species and to estimate carrying capacity. Our results indicate that the vicuña has been protected successfully in northern Chile. The census data reveal that, following protection, the population displayed logistic growth between 1975 and 1992. Population growth rate declined linearly with population size, which indicates a degree of density dependence. Density independent factors, such as rainfall, may also have been important. The principal density dependent effect observed was that birth rate declined in those family groups with the most breeding females. The carrying capacity of the study area was estimated from the census data and from models based on precipitation and local primary productivity. Using the census data, an estimation of carrying capacity as the asymptote of the fitted logistic curve suggested that the vicuña population should reach approximately 26,000 vicuñas, whereas estimation when the population growth rate was equated to zero gave a carrying capacity of c. 22,000. Coe's method based on local precipitation predicted 31,000 vicuña, whereas Lavenroth's method based on local primary productivity predicted 26,000 vicuña. In reality, the census data showed that the population peaked at 22,463 vicuñas in 1990. The results are discussed in relation to the need for better census techniques and the implications of density dependent effects for the management of the vicuña in Chile.

scholarly journals An evolutionary maximum principle for density-dependent population dynamics in a fluctuating environment

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1523) ◽  
pp. 1511-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Lande ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
Bernt-Erik Sæther
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Term Evolution

The evolution of population dynamics in a stochastic environment is analysed under a general form of density-dependence with genetic variation in r and K , the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, and in σ e 2 , the environmental variance of population growth rate. The continuous-time model assumes a large population size and a stationary distribution of environments with no autocorrelation. For a given population density, N , and genotype frequency, p , the expected selection gradient is always towards an increased population growth rate, and the expected fitness of a genotype is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the covariance of its growth rate with that of the population. Long-term evolution maximizes the expected value of the density-dependence function, averaged over the stationary distribution of N . In the θ -logistic model, where density dependence of population growth is a function of N θ , long-term evolution maximizes E[ N θ ]=[1− σ e 2 /(2 r )] K θ . While σ e 2 is always selected to decrease, r and K are always selected to increase, implying a genetic trade-off among them. By contrast, given the other parameters, θ has an intermediate optimum between 1.781 and 2 corresponding to the limits of high or low stochasticity.

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