scholarly journals Prediction of Sites with a High Probability of Wild Mammal Roadkill Using a Favourability Function

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 585
Author(s):  
Hugo Ignacio Coitiño ◽  
Marcel Achkar ◽  
José Carlos Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spots ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Large Mammals ◽  
Wild Mammals ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Grassland Species ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Favourability Function

Roads are one of the main causes of loss of biodiversity, with roadkill one of the main causes of mortality. The aim of this research was to identify sites with a high probability of roadkill of medium and large mammals, and the environmental variables that would explain it. We used the favourability function (F) to build the predictive models. There were 57 explanatory variables, and we collected 685 records of 10 species of medium and large native wild mammals from the ECOBIO Uruguay databases. They were grouped into native forest and grassland species, according to the main habitat. Two models were developed, one with all the variables and one with the anthropogenic variables. For both groups, the model obtained with all the variables was the most significant according to the evaluation indices used. This made it possible to identify the hot spots of roadkill (F > 0.6) for each of the groups. The anthropic variables were the ones that best explained these hot spots. This allowed the identification of sites where the probability of roadkill is high and requires a monitoring plan to implement mitigation measures in the future.

Costs and Benefits of the Transition to Low-carbon Economyin Russia: Perspectives up to 2050

2014 ◽  
pp. 70-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov ◽  
A. Myshak
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Research Groups ◽  
Emissions Mitigation ◽  
Very High

This paper investigates costs and benefits associated with low-carbon economic development pathways realization to the mid XXI century. 30 scenarios covering practically all “visions of the future” were developed by several research groups based on scenario assumptions agreed upon in advance. It is shown that with a very high probability Russian energy-related GHG emissions will reach the peak before 2050, which will be at least 11% below the 1990 emission level. The height of the peak depends on portfolio of GHG emissions mitigation measures. Efforts to keep 2050 GHG emissions 25-30% below the 1990 level bring no GDP losses. GDP impact of deep GHG emission reduction - by 50% of the 1990 level - varies from plus 4% to minus 9%. Finally, very deep GHG emission reduction - by 80% - may bring GDP losses of over 10%.

scholarly journals Biodiversity of Early Holocene large mammals from the territory of Bulgaria according to remains from archaeological sites

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadezhda Karastoyanova
Keyword(s):  
Early Holocene ◽  
General Idea ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Large Mammals ◽  
General Picture ◽  
Wild Mammals ◽  
Animal Remains ◽  
Good Sample ◽  
Major Factors

Animal remains from archeological sites give a rather good sample of data, showing habitats and biodiversity during the early Holocene . In multiple settlements in the Eastern Balkans, there are numerous remains of wild mammals that were hunted by humans through the prehistory (7200-5800 BP). This gives a general idea of the habitats around and near the settlements. Such deposits of animal remains are the main source of data on fauna during this period and give us information on the processes leading to the extinction of some species. This paper analyzes more than 26000 animal remains (bones, horns, antlers and teeth) from large mammals from orders: Аrtiodactyla, Perissodactyla and Carnivora from 4 still unpublished deposits from Bulgaria. I summarize data from already published remains from 33 sites in East Balkans. These analyses provide a general picture of both habitats and biodiversity and some of the major factors that caused extinction of some large mammals in Bulgaria during the early Holocene.

Assessing Risk Factors for Short Birth Interval Hot Spots using Geographically Weighted Regression: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Zahidul Islam ◽  
Md. Mostafizur Rahman ◽  
Md. Nuruzzaman Khan ◽  
M Mofizul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Birth Interval ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Protective Factor ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Geographic Variations ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Short Birth Interval

Abstract Background Short Birth Interval (SBI) is a public health problem in most low- and lower-middle-income countries. Understanding geographic variations in SBI, particularly SBI hot spots and associated factors, may help intervene with tailored programs. This study identified the geographical hot spots of SBI in Bangladesh and the factors associated with them. `Methods We analyzed women’s data extracted from the 2017/18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey and the healthcare facility data extracted from the 2017 Service Provision Assessment. Moran’s I was used to examine the spatial variation of SBI in Bangladesh whereas the Getis-Ord G*i (d) was used to determine the hot spots of SBI. The Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to explore the spatial variation of SBI on explanatory variables. The explanatory variables included in the GWR were selected using the exploratory regression and ordinary least square regression model. Results Data of 5941 women were included in the analyses. Around 26% of the total births in Bangladesh had occurred in short intervals. A majority of the SBI hot spots were found in the Sylhet division, and almost all SBI cold spots were in the Rajshahi and Khulna divisions. No engagement with formal income-generating activities, high maternal parity, and history of experiencing the death of a child were significantly associated with SBI in the Sylhet region. Women’s age of 34 years or less at the first birth was a protective factor of SBI in the Rajshahi and Khulna divisions. Conclusion The prevalence of SBI in Bangladesh is highly clustered in the Sylhet division. We recommend introducing tailored reproductive health care services in the hot spots instead of the existing uniform approach across the country.

scholarly journals Estimation of the susceptibility of a road network to shallow landslides with the integration of the sediment connectivity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Bordoni ◽  
M. Giuseppina Persichillo ◽  
Claudia Meisina ◽  
Stefano Crema ◽  
Marco Cavalli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Road ◽  
Genetic Algorithm Method ◽  
Sediment Connectivity

Abstract. Landslides causes severe damages to the road network of a hit zone, in terms of both direct (partial or complete destruction of a road trait, blockages) and indirect (traffic restriction, cut-off of a certain area) costs. Thus, the identification of the parts of the road network which are more susceptible to landslides is fundamental to reduce the risk to the population potentially exposed and the money expense caused by road damaging. For these reasons, this paper aimed to develop and test a data-driven model based on the Genetic Algorithm Method for the identification of road sectors that are susceptible to be hit by shallow landslides triggered in slopes upstream to the infrastructure. This work also analyzed the importance of considering or not the sediment connectivity on the estimation of the susceptibility. The study was carried out in a catchment of north-eastern Oltrepò Pavese (northern Italy), where several shallow landslides affected roads in the last 8 years. The random partition of the dataset used for building the model in two parts (training and test subsets), within a 100-fold bootstrap procedure, allowed to select the most significant explanatory variables, providing a better description of the occurrence and distribution of the road sectors potentially susceptible to damages induced by shallow landslides. The presented methodology allows the identification, in a robust and reliable way, of the most susceptible road sectors that could be hit by sediments delivered by landslides. The best predictive capability was obtained using a model which took into account also the index of connectivity, calculated according to a linear relationship. Most susceptible road traits resulted to be located below steep slopes with a limited height (lower than 50 m), where sediment connectivity is high. Different scenarios of land use were implemented in order to estimate possible changes in road susceptibility. Land use classes of the study area were characterized by similar connectivity features with a consequent loss of variations also on the susceptibility of the road networks according to different scenarios of distribution of land cover. Larger effects on sediment connectivity and, as a consequence on road susceptibility, could be due to modifications in the morphology of the slopes (e.g. drainage system, modification of the slope angle) caused by the abandonment or by the recovery of cultivations. The results of this research demonstrate the ability of the developed methodology in the assessment of susceptible roads. This could give to the managers of an infrastructure information on the criticality of the different road traits, thereby allowing attention and economic budgets to be shifted towards the most critical assets, where structural and non-structural mitigation measures could be implemented.

scholarly journals Understanding State-Level Variations in the US Infant Mortality: 2000 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (12) ◽  
pp. 1271-1277
Author(s):  
Alireza Ebrahimvandi ◽  
Niyousha Hosseinichimeh ◽  
Jay Iams
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
State Level ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Infant Deaths ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Effect Regression ◽  
Causes Of Mortality

Objective To exploit state variations in infant mortality, identify diagnoses that contributed to reduction of the infant mortality rate (IMR), and examine factors associated with preterm-related mortality rate (PMR). Study Design Using linked birth-infant deaths files, we examined patterns in the leading causes of IMR. We compared these rates at both national and state levels to find reduction trends. Creating a cross-sectional time series of states' PMR and some explanatory variables, we implemented a fixed-effect regression model to examine factors associated with PMR at the state level. Results We found substantial state-level variations in changes of the IMR (range =  − 2.87–2.08) and PMR (−1.77–0.67). Twenty-one states in which the IMR declined more than the national average of 0.99 (6.89–5.90) were labeled as successful. In the successful states, we found reduction in the PMR accounted for the largest decline in the IMR—0.90 fewer deaths. Changes in the other subgroups of leading causes did not differ significantly in successful and unsuccessful states. Conclusion Trends in the causes of mortality are heterogeneous across states. Although its impact is not large, reducing the percentage of pregnant women with inadequate care is one of the mechanisms through which the PMR decrease.

scholarly journals Assessing bird collisions in the United Kingdom: Modelling frequency of bird-strike from road and rail mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Freire ◽  
Lee Read ◽  
Todd R. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Bird Species ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Road Mortality ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Barn Owls ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Sexual Bias ◽  
Negative Impacts

AbstractRoads are an important way to transport people and goods, but they sometimes have negative impacts on wildlife. One of the leading causes of mortality for several species is identified as road strikes, and the most significant remains bird-vehicle collisions. This study aimed to investigate what species of birds are most affected, and what other factors impact in their susceptibility in road collisions, such as age, sex, season, and type of transports. A total of N=5413 records, and 140 bird species were documented by BTO ringers. For analysis four Bayesian Hierarchical Models were used, with random effects results showing that Barn owls were most affected by collisions. Road mortality presents the highest cause of mortality among species when contrasted with rail mortality. Age and sexual bias was detected across all species, however juveniles and males did appear to be prominent in relation to other age classes. Winter and early spring were the months with most reported casualties and 2016 had lower abundance of mortality across the 10-year period. 75% of birds were found within a week, which may indicate some bias interference from scavenging animals, as true figures could be up to 16 times more. This study discusses some mitigation measures found in current research, that could dramatically reduce numbers of birds affected each year by road mortality.

scholarly journals Management Models Applied to the Human-Wolf Conflict in Agro-Forestry-Pastoral Territories of Two Italian Protected Areas and One Spanish Game Area

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1141
Author(s):  
Nadia Piscopo ◽  
Leonardo Gentile ◽  
Erminia Scioli ◽  
Vicente González Eguren ◽  
Ana Maria Carvajal Urueña ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Wild Mammals ◽  
Negative Factor ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Conservation Activity ◽  
Agro Forestry ◽  
Source Of Information ◽  
Iberian Wolf

Our work shows that, despite the persistence of persecutory actions, conservation activity has proved successful for the return of numerous wild mammals to different habitats, including the wolf. The human-wolf conflict is still described in all countries where the wolf is present. This is evidenced by the high number of damages on livestock, and the corpses of wolves found both in protected areas and in those where hunting is permitted. The diagnosis of road accidents, together with poisoning and poaching, are major causes of mortality. Although hunting records the highest percentage of kills in Spain, the demographic stability reported by the censuses suggests that this activity does not have a consistent influence on the Iberian wolf population's survival. In Italy, where wolf hunting is prohibited, wolf populations are to be increasing. In some Italian situations, wolf attacks on horses seem to cause unwanted damage to foals, but they represent a very precious source of information about the habits of carnivores. A simple management plan would be sufficient to help the coexistence between the productive parts and the ecosystem services ensured by the presence of the wolf. The presence of hybrids is a negative factor.

Factors Maintaining and Regulating Grassland Structure and Function

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Wilsey
Keyword(s):  
Vegetative Reproduction ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Large Mammals ◽  
Grassland Community ◽  
Grassland Species ◽  
Crop Fields ◽  
Plant Adaptations ◽  
Native Grasslands ◽  
Grassland Plants ◽  
And Function

Intrinsic disturbances are processes that have occurred on an evolutionary time scale, and include fire, wind-damage, digging or burrowing by fossorial mammals, defoliation, and trampling by native large mammals. Grassland species evolved with intrinsic disturbances, and they can be important in maintaining grassland community structure and functioning. Adaptations to fire include short herbaceous stature, high allocation belowground, ability to resprout, and smoke-induced seed germination. Fire interacts with grazing because grazing reduces litter (fuel) load, and fires affect forage quality. Plants can tolerate some level of herbivory in most grasslands. Adaptations that enable grassland plants to resist grazing are similar to plant adaptations to fire. Drought can affect grasslands at a variety of time scales. Vegetative reproduction can allow rapid recolonization after droughts have ended. Plowing is the most common disturbance affecting grasslands, and it has been used to transform native grasslands into crop fields and simplified pasture.

Pipeline Risk Mitigation Study

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Pillay
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
Level Of Risk

This paper presents a case study, which is currently being carried out on a high-pressure sub-sea gas export pipeline. The main objective of the case study is to determine if the risk mitigation measures that are already in place are sufficient considering the level of risk for different sections of the pipeline. The methodology utilizes a Geographical Information System and the COmputer Assisted Shipping Traffic (COAST) database to determine the level of risk caused by vessels traveling over the pipeline. The factors considered are damaged due to anchor drop and drag, vessel foundering and grounding over the pipeline. Live vessel tracks obtained from nearby radar stations are used to determine the annual traffic volume, size, type and speed of vessels as well as vessel headings. This information is then fed into the COAST database and presented graphically. The pipeline is then divided into equal area cells and the probability of anchor dropping and dragging and vessel foundering and grounding are calculated based on the type, size and speed of the vessels identified to have passed over the pipeline. The results of the frequency of occurrences and fatalities are presented and then evaluated against the set As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) level. The “hot spots” of the pipeline are identified and a base case study is carried out for the risk reduction measures that are in place (if any) for each of the “hot spots” identified. Alternative risk reduction measures are considered and a cost benefit analysis is carried out to determine the most feasible option. The risk levels are then recalculated with the risk reduction measures in place to see if this has reduced the risk to ALARP. The COAST database is thought to be very useful as it can be updated to reflect the current navigational practices of vessels and hence, it would be easy to update analyses as and when required.

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