scholarly journals Development of Military Spending Determinants in Baltic Countries—Empirical Analysis

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Jakub Odehnal ◽  
Jiří Neubauer ◽  
Lukáš Dyčka ◽  
Tereza Ambler
Keyword(s):  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Military

The article presents the use of the ARDL model to identify military expenditure determinants of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). Factors influencing military expenditure include the variables characterizing the economic environment of the analyzed countries (GDP per Capita, Government Deficit/Surplus, General Government Gross Debt, Inflation), and the security environment measured by Risk of Foreign Pressures, Risk of Cross-border Conflict, and Democratic Accountability. General conclusions about the analysis of relationships between the military expenditure level and selected economics and security determinants were confirmed in the cases of Government Deficit/Surplus, GDP per Capita and Inflation. The results, therefore, indicate that the military expenditure of Estonia and Lithuania depended on the state budget deficit where military expenditure tended to go down in relation to an increasing deficit within the assessed period. As far as Estonia is concerned, the findings about relationship between the economic position and military expenditure was validated as an increasing economic performance tended to increase military expenditure.

scholarly journals Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 101-109
Author(s):  
Jakub Rybacki
Keyword(s):  
Political Bias ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure ◽  
Better Than

AbstractThe academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.

The Relationship Among Military Expenditure, High Technological Product Exports, and Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 624-645
Author(s):  
Sevgi Sezer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

In this chapter, the effects of military expenditure (MEXP) on high-tech exports (HTX) and GDP per capita (GDPPC) of G7 and new industrialized countries (NIC) are analyzed for period 1988-2015 by panel data analysis. The causality relationships between the series are examined by Dumitrescu and Hurlin test. In G7 countries, one-way causality relationship from HTX to MEXP and two-way causality relationship between MEXP and GDPPC have been identified. Also, in NIC countries, two-way causality relationship between HTX and MEXP and one-way causality relationship from GDPPC to MEXP have been determined. Cointegration relations are tested by Pedroni test and the series are found to be cointegrated. It is seen that in the G7 countries, 1% increase in MEXP during the period of 1988-2015 increased HTX by 0.71% and GDPPC by 0.98%. In NIC countries, the 1% increase in MEXP increased HTX by 1.7% and GDPPC by 0.96%. The effect of MEXP on HTX is found much higher in NIC countries.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Relationship between Defence Expenditure and Sustainable Development in the Baltic Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6916
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Svajone Bekesiene ◽  
Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene ◽  
Galina Ševčenko-Kozlovska
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Small States ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Sustainable Development Indicators ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Defence Expenditure

As geopolitical instability increases and new threats emerge, a number of countries are increasing their respective allocations for defence expenditure in order to take greater responsibility for their citizens in terms of defending and protecting their values and way of life. Small states such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia must evaluate certain economic, political, and strategic factors when increasing their respective defence expenditure. While they do tend to increase expenditure on national defence matters, budgetary constraints often force them to cut funding in some civilian domains or to increase their borrowing on international markets. Therefore, the security and defence of small states must be addressed in an integrated way, taking into account economic, social, and environmental factors. The aim of this article is to assess the relationships between defence expenditure and sustainable development indicators during the period between 2000 and 2018 in the Baltic states. The authors of this article aimed to determine which sustainable development indicators have a significant impact upon a country’s expenditure when it comes to defence matters. The study was conducted using econometric methods, including Spearman’s correlation analysis and Automatic Linear Modelling (ALM). The research results revealed some differences amongst the Baltic countries. In Lithuania, the employment rate and R&D personnel as a share of the active population demonstrated a significant impact upon defence expenditure. In Latvia, defence expenditure was found to be affected by disposable household income per capita and environmental taxes as a share of total tax revenue. In Estonia, defence expenditure was mainly influenced by disposable household income per capita and energy import dependency. The study’s findings may be used to ensure both the security of the country and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.

scholarly journals The relationship between military expenditure and certain growth and development related variables in transition economies: A panel data analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sotirios K. Bellos
Keyword(s):  
Transition Economies ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita and Industry Value Added) in 31 transition economies during the 1989-2014 period. The empirical results reflect a positive association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables. The causality analysis shows though that the causality direction runs from the examined growth and development related variables towards military expenditure in all cases. This in turn reveals a common tendency in the studied economies, which is related to the tensions and developments in the wider studied area.

Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Development in Transition Economies: A Panel VAR GMM Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-187
Author(s):  
Sotirios K. Bellos
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract The paper examines the relation between military expenditure and three growth and development related variables (GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and Industry Value Added growth) in 31 transition economies during the 1985–2018 period and in a series of different samples by applying the Panel VAR GMM methodology. The empirical results reveal different patterns of the significant association between military expenditure and the examined growth and development variables, which is positive for certain samples and negative for others. The causality analysis shows that in the vast majority of the cases, the causality direction runs from military expenditure towards the examined growth and development related variables. In addition, the analysis provides uniform evidence on certain positive impacts of defense expenditure on population growth and schooling and negative impacts on savings. The results from the Ex-Soviet Economies are of particular interest as the association between military expenditure and the examined growth-related variables, becomes positive. We interpret the results in the context of the wider characteristics of the particular geographical area. JEL Classifications: H50, H56 Transition Economies, Transition, Military Expenditure, Economic growth, GDP per capita, Industry Value Added

The Relationship Among Military Expenditure, High Technological Product Exports, and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
Sevgi Sezer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

In this chapter, the effects of military expenditure (MEXP) on high-tech exports (HTX) and GDP per capita (GDPPC) of G7 and new industrialized countries (NIC) are analyzed for period 1988-2015 by panel data analysis. The causality relationships between the series are examined by Dumitrescu and Hurlin test. In G7 countries, one-way causality relationship from HTX to MEXP and two-way causality relationship between MEXP and GDPPC have been identified. Also, in NIC countries, two-way causality relationship between HTX and MEXP and one-way causality relationship from GDPPC to MEXP have been determined. Cointegration relations are tested by Pedroni test and the series are found to be cointegrated. It is seen that in the G7 countries, 1% increase in MEXP during the period of 1988-2015 increased HTX by 0.71% and GDPPC by 0.98%. In NIC countries, the 1% increase in MEXP increased HTX by 1.7% and GDPPC by 0.96%. The effect of MEXP on HTX is found much higher in NIC countries.

Growth-promoting reforms in Estonia will take time

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Growth Promoting ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

Subject Recent sluggish growth rates in Estonia. Significance Estonia has traditionally been the wealthiest of the three Baltic countries, but now Lithuania has caught up with it in terms of per capita GDP. The Estonian economy has grown more slowly than those of the other two Baltic states, in particular because of lacklustre productivity growth. Impacts Despite continuing emigration, the Latvian and Lithuanian economies are forecast to grow more vigorously than Estonia's in the coming years. Unit labour costs will continue to rise in Estonia, as wage growth exceeds productivity growth. Slower growth in the Baltic states will still exceed the EU average, allowing catch-up with more affluent countries. Firms and households may have learned their lesson regarding very rapid debt growth, judging by the Baltics' very small external imbalances.

scholarly journals Scenarios of Nutrient-Related Solute Loading and Transport Fate from Different Land Catchments and Coasts into the Baltic Sea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanying Chen ◽  
Vladimir Cvetkovic ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Vistula River ◽  
Numerical Experimentation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Coastal Flow

This study uses controlled numerical experimentation to comparatively simulate and investigate solute transport and concentration responses and patterns in the Baltic Sea for various solute releases from the land through two different coastal cases. These cases are the Swedish Kalmar County coast and the Polish coast of the Vistula River outlet. For equivalent solute releases, the coastal flow conditions and their interactions with main marine currents determine the local coastal solute spreading, while the overall spreading over the Baltic Sea is similar for the two coastal cases, despite their large local differences. For nutrient-proportional solute release scenarios, the highly-populated Vistula catchment yields much greater total, but smaller per-capita nutrient impacts, in the Baltic Sea than the Kalmar County catchment. To be as low as from the Vistula catchment, the per-capita nutrient contribution from Kalmar County would have to be reduced much more than required on average per Swedish inhabitant by the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This highlights an unfairness issue in the per-capita distribution of nutrient load allowance among the Baltic countries, which needs to be considered and handled in further research and international efforts aimed to combat the Baltic Sea eutrophication.

scholarly journals Debt and Deficit Growth Rate Reporting for Post-Communist European Union Member States

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Paczoski ◽  
Solomon T. Abebe ◽  
Giuseppe T. Cirella
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Union Member ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Member States ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
General Government ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
European Union Member States

A focalized analysis and reporting on the problems of general government debt (GGD) and government deficit (GD) and their influencing factors on economic growth rate tell the story of positive, neutral, and negative economies. Research was conducted over a nineteen-year period between 2000 and 2018 on all eleven post-communist European Union Member States (MS). MSs are divided in to three regional blocks: (1) the Baltic countries, (2) Central and Eastern European countries, and (3) the Balkan countries. Reviewed literature examined different types of GGD and GD with denoted influence on each MS’s economy and government. GGD and GD increase as a result of State intervention by reacting to economic fluctuations needed in creating redistributive-related fiscal policy. A breakdown of the problems of fiscal policy is explained. Datasets were compiled and systematically analyzed using Eurostat indicators. European regulatory benchmarking was used for GGD and GD as a percentage of gross domestic product. Results were divided at the regional group level. Comparative tax systems based on total general government revenue as well as total tax and contribution rate were evaluated. Histo-geographical research was considered and a comparative examination of GGD, GD and growth rate illustrated. In terms of GGD, GD, and growth rate, the Baltic countries were best situated, while all other countries were generally stable—with the exception of Hungary, Croatia, and Slovenia. In all, negative or stagnant periods revealed a general positive trend throughout the study with the exception of the world financial crisis of 2008, in which a deteriorative impact on growth rate was evident in all MS—especially from 2009. In the latter years, MSs’ economic promise signals a high potential for renewed public finance and stability initiatives.

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