scholarly journals Improving Prediction Intervals Using Measured Solar Power with a Multi-Objective Approach

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 4713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Aler ◽  
Javier Huertas-Tato ◽  
José M. Valls ◽  
Inés M. Galván
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Prediction Intervals ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Prediction Time

Prediction Intervals are pairs of lower and upper bounds on point forecasts and are useful to take into account the uncertainty on predictions. This article studies the influence of using measured solar power, available at prediction time, on the quality of prediction intervals. While previous studies have suggested that using measured variables can improve point forecasts, not much research has been done on the usefulness of that additional information, so that prediction intervals with less uncertainty can be obtained. With this aim, a multi-objective particle swarm optimization method was used to train neural networks whose outputs are the interval bounds. The inputs to the network used measured solar power in addition to hourly meteorological forecasts. This study was carried out on data from three different locations and for five forecast horizons, from 1 to 5 h. The results were compared with two benchmark methods (quantile regression and quantile regression forests). The Wilcoxon test was used to assess statistical significance. The results show that using measured power reduces the uncertainty associated to the prediction intervals, but mainly for the short forecasting horizons.

Convergent Beam Electron Diffraction

1978 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-315
Author(s):  
G. Lehmpfuhl
Keyword(s):  
Electron Diffraction ◽  
Diffraction Pattern ◽  
Crystal Surface ◽  
Diffraction Spot ◽  
Crystal Thickness ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Electron Microscopic ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Microscopic Investigations

Introduction In electron microscopic investigations of crystalline specimens the direct observation of the electron diffraction pattern gives additional information about the specimen. The quality of this information depends on the quality of the crystals or the crystal area contributing to the diffraction pattern. By selected area diffraction in a conventional electron microscope, specimen areas as small as 1 µ in diameter can be investigated. It is well known that crystal areas of that size which must be thin enough (in the order of 1000 Å) for electron microscopic investigations are normally somewhat distorted by bending, or they are not homogeneous. Furthermore, the crystal surface is not well defined over such a large area. These are facts which cause reduction of information in the diffraction pattern. The intensity of a diffraction spot, for example, depends on the crystal thickness. If the thickness is not uniform over the investigated area, one observes an averaged intensity, so that the intensity distribution in the diffraction pattern cannot be used for an analysis unless additional information is available.

The Anxiety of Pregnant Women in Post Abortion by Reading Ayatus Syifa and Lavender Aromatherapy

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 404-409
Author(s):  
Inna Sholicha Fitriani ◽  
Nurhidayati Nurhidayati
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Pregnant Woman ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Anxiety Level ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
Post Test ◽  
Post Abortion

Pregnancy and abortion can be a stressor that can increase anxiety. The Qur'an is just as a doubt antidote and diseases that are in the chest and it is commonly known as the heart. The Lavender one of essential oil which popular and it is widely used in the field of clinical health which especially addressing psychosomatic in gynecology. The purpose of this research was to determine the potential decrease of anxiety on pregnant women in post-abortion by reading verses syifa and lavender aromatherapy. The research used experimental design of Pre and Post Test-Group with a sample of all pregnant women who had abortion. The total sample was 24 people. The research was conducted in Aisyiyah Hospital and Muhammadiyah Hospital of Ponorogo in Juny - August 2018. The data analysis used T and Wilcoxon test. The result of data analysis were 0,003 <0,05 and there was comparison between potential decrease of anxiety in pregnant women post abortion by reading verses syifa and giving aromatherapy  of lavender.  The comparison showed that the potency of decreasing of anxiety in pregnant woman post abortion by reading ayatus syifa and giving aromatherapy of lavender, 38% decreased anxiety level in pregnant woman post abortion because of lavender therapy and 62% was due to other factor. Then 89%decreased in anxiety level in pregnant woman post abortion because of reading ayatus syifa and 11% due to other factor. Research products can be used as media in the treatment of non pharmacological psikomatic in order to support quality of public health.

Student Admission Assesment using Multi-Objective Optimization on the Basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rivalri Kristianto Hondro ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Andysah Putera Utama Siahaan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Initial Step ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Prospective Students ◽  
Multi Objective

Procurement selection process in the acceptance of prospective students is an initial step undertaken by private universities to attract superior students. However, sometimes this selection process is just a procedural process that is commonly done by universities without grouping prospective students from superior students into a class that is superior compared to other classes. To process the selection results can be done using the help of computer systems, known as decision support systems. To produce a better, accurate and objective decision result is used a method that can be applied in decision support systems. Multi-Objective Optimization Method by Ratio Analysis (MOORA) is one of the MADM methods that can perform calculations on the value of criteria of attributes (prospective students) that helps decision makers to produce the right decision in the form of students who enter into the category of prospective students superior.

ASSECSSING MOCA TEST IN SUBACUTE STROKE PATIENTS AND COMPARE MOCA VERSUS MMSE

2016 ◽  
pp. 120-127
Author(s):  
Dinh Toan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Female Age ◽  
Subacute Stroke ◽  
Duration Of Illness ◽  
Dsm Iv

Background: Dementia after stroke, particularly subacute period is often overlooked. Today the quality of human life is increasingly high, finding scales that have high value for detection of dementia in patients with stroke is increasingly interested. MoCA test is high sensitivity with mild dementia and identify more abnormalities of awareness caused by vascular, but MoCA have not been studied much in Vietnam. Objective: Assessing MoCA test in subacute stroke patients and compare MoCA versus MMSE in these patients. Subjects: 90 patients with subacute stroke period, these people are being treated at Department of cardiovascular internal medicine at Hue Central Hospital, from 7/2014 - 7/2015. Methods: cross-sectional description and analysis. Results: The mean age is 65.57 ± 13.38, accounting for 54.4% male and 45.6% female. Age, duration of illness has weak correlation with MoCA. The risk factors: hypertension, stroke ischemic transient, alcoholism, smoking, heart disease, diabetes, dyslipidemia related no statistical significance with MoCA. The proportion of dementia in subacute stroke according MoCA is 82.2%. The concordance between MoCA and MMSE was good (kappa = 0.684). Using DSM-IV criteria as the gold standard we found MoCA more valuable in the dementia diagnosis than MMSE (AUC 0.864 versus 0.774, p <0.05). Conclusion: The rate of dementia in stroke subacute period according MoCA is quite high. MoCA is valuable than MMSE in detecting dementia in patients with stroke subacute period, this scale is short, easy to implement so should put into using widely in clinical practice. Key words: MoCA test, subacute stroke, dementia

Use of SAMe-TT₂R₂ Score to Predict the Quality of Anticoagulation Control in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Receiving Warfarin in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (6) ◽  
pp. 548-552
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Therapeutic Range ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Time In Therapeutic Range ◽  
Anticoagulation Control

Objective: To predict the quality of anticoagulation control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving warfarin in Thailand. Materials and Methods: The present study retrospectively recruited Thai AF patients receiving warfarin for three months or longer between June 2012 and December 2017 in Central Chest Institute of Thailand. The patients were classified into those with SAMe-TT₂R₂ of 2 or less, and 3 or more. The Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test was used to compare the proportion of the patients with poor time in therapeutic range (TTR) between the two groups of SAMe-TT₂R₂ score. The discrimination performance of SAMe-TT₂R₂ score was demonstrated with c-statistics. Results: Ninety AF patients were enrolled. An average age was 69.89±10.04 years. Most patients were persistent AF. An average CHA₂DS₂-VASc, SAMe-TT₂R₂, and HAS-BLED score were 3.68±1.51, 3.26±0.88, and 1.98±0.85, respectively. The present study showed the increased proportion of AF patients with poor TTR with higher SAMe-TT₂R₂ score. The AF patients with SAMe-TT₂R₂ score of 3 or more had a larger proportion of patients with poor TTR than those with SAMe-TT₂R₂ score of 2 or less with statistical significance when TTR was below 70% (p=0.03) and 65% (p=0.04), respectively. The discrimination performance of SAMe-TT₂R₂ score was demonstrated with c-statistics of 0.60, 0.59, and 0.55 when TTR was below 70%, 65% and 60%, respectively. Conclusion: Thai AF patients receiving warfarin had a larger proportion of patients with poor TTR when the SAMe-TT₂R₂ score was higher. The score of 3 or more could predict poor quality of anticoagulation control in those patients. Keywords: Time in therapeutic range, Poor quality of anticoagulation control, Warfarin, SAMe-TT₂R₂, Labile INR

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