scholarly journals Overview of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Microbial Safety of the Dairy Industry

Foods ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1794
Author(s):  
Rodney J. Feliciano ◽  
Géraldine Boué ◽  
Jeanne-Marie Membré
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Dairy Products ◽  
Dairy Industry ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Safety ◽  
Microbial Infection ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to affect many different sectors across the food supply chain. The current review paper presents an overview of the effects of climate change on the microbial safety of the dairy supply chain and suggest potential mitigation strategies to limit the impact. Raw milk, the common raw material of dairy products, is vulnerable to climate change, influenced by changes in average temperature and amount of precipitation. This would induce changes in the microbial profile and heat stress in lactating cows, increasing susceptibility to microbial infection and higher levels of microbial contamination. Moreover, climate change affects the entire dairy supply chain and necessitates adaptation of all the current food safety management programs. In particular, the review of current prerequisite programs might be needed as well as revisiting the current microbial specifications of the receiving dairy products and the introduction of new pretreatments with stringent processing regimes. The effects on microbial changes during distribution and consumer handling also would need to be quantified through the use of predictive models. The development of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) models, considering the whole farm-to-fork chain to evaluate risk mitigation strategies, will be a key step to prioritize actions towards a climate change-resilient dairy industry.

The Impact of Paying for Milk Solids on the Performance of the Dairy Supply Chain and Consumers

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Campio Pinha ◽  
Marcelo José Braga ◽  
Glauco Rodrigues Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Dairy Products ◽  
Dairy Industry ◽  
Consumer Welfare ◽  
Main Interest ◽  
Generalized Model ◽  
Milk Components ◽  
Solids Content ◽  
Milk Solids ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAn important particularity of the dairy chain is that many times the main interest of the dairy industry relies on milk components, the so-called milk solids. Paying for milk solids content is a way of trying to create incentives for farms to invest in improving the solids content. However, little is known about the effects of this type of payment on the dairy supply chain. The paper proposes a microeconomic model to analyze the effects of paying for milk solids content on the performance of farms, dairy processors and consumer welfare. Based on the model, we find that this mechanism improves the yield of milk in producing dairy products and benefits farms, processor and consumers simultaneously. Extensions demonstrate the robustness of results and provide a generalized model and conditions for which these results are valid.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Tea Quality ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Localization of enterprises for primary processing of milk in Almaty region

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
G.U. Akimbekova ◽  
◽  
A.B. Baymuhanov ◽  
U.R. Kaskabaev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Products ◽  
Dairy Industry ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Agricultural Cooperatives ◽  
Milk Processing ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Technological Chain ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Production Capacities ◽  
Potential Reserve

The purpose-on the basis of the analysis of the current state and location of enterprises in the dairy industry of the republic and Almaty region, in particular, to identify the main factors that hinder its development, to develop recommendations for solving the existing problems. Methods - monographic, computational-constructive, analytical, economic-statistical, logical generalization. Results - research confirms the underdevelopment of the infrastructure for effective promotion of dairy products from producer to consumer along the production-processing-sale technological chain, especially primary milk processing; often there is a discrepancy between the required proportions between the existing production capacities of milk processing enterprises and the level of development of their raw material zones. Based on production potential of each district of a specific region and calculation of the population's demand for dairy products, a forecast for creation of agricultural cooperatives (APC) of dairy direction for purification of milk from mechanical impurities, cooling, storage and transportation in the context of districtsis presented. It is necessary to create 77 APC for the period 2021-2022, incl. 64 cooperatives for primary milk processing. Conclusions - it is recommended to merge small farms into agricultural cooperatives. The economic efficiency of organizing a cooperative milk collection point at the district level has been justified. Based on the study of the existing schemes for location of milk processing enterprises, proposals have been developed for the localization of new cooperative milk collection points in the territorial units of the region. Dairy industry enterprises need investments to renew their fixed assets. The authors note that the possibilities and advantages of cooperative principles and the potential reserve of agricultural cooperation are not yet fully realized.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hung Ho ◽  
Sawaid Abbas ◽  
Jinxin Yang ◽  
Rui Zhu ◽  
Man Wong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Sustainable Planning ◽  
Perceived Temperature ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change Mitigation

Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the “no-one left behind” guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

scholarly journals Climate risk perception and media framing

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Renata Peregrino de Brito ◽  
Priscila Laczynski de Souza Miguel ◽  
Susana Carla Farias Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to analyze the media coverage of the impact of extreme weather events (EWE) and related risk management activities in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach Using a documentary analysis, the authors examined the media coverage of droughts and floods from 2003 to 2013 with concomitant official reports. Findings The results indicate that although media coverage conveys the direct impact of floods and droughts on society, it underemphasizes the importance of risk management activities. Moreover, the private sector rarely engages in risk management and mitigation activities, despite the documented supply chain disruptions. Research limitations/implications This study focuses solely on media coverage as provided by wide-circulation newspaper in Brazil and would benefit by being extended to all media platforms. Practical implications The results highlight the need for private sector involvement in risk management activities to facilitate the adaptation to climate change. Social implications The study reveals the deficiency of existing reports and lack of awareness regarding EWE. Originality/value The study contributes by focusing on climate awareness and how society can adapt to climate change, as well as how businesses can improve supply chain operations to facilitate smoother risk management.

Emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alzahrani ◽  
Halim Boussabaine ◽  
Ali Nasser Alzaed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a survey on emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK. The property sector is facing major challenges as a result of projected climate change scenarios. Predictions concerning future climate change and the subsequent impact on building operations are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, it is important that building stockholders consider a range of possible future risks that may influence the operation of their assets. Design/methodology/approach – The literature review and questionnaire are used to elicit and assess the likelihood of occurrence of climate change risks impacting building operations. The survey was carried out among building stockowners and professionals in the UK. Statistical methods were used to rank and compare the findings. Findings – The majority of the respondents strongly agreed that the list of risks that were elicited from the literature will have an impact on their building assets within a 0-5 years’ time horizon. It was found that the professionals were most concerned about higher energy prices and an increase in operation costs in general; they were least concerned about an electricity blackout. Research limitations/implications – This paper is limited to the UK, and regional variations are not explored. Nevertheless, the buildings’ operation risk study provides a starting point for further investigations into the emerging risks from climate change, and their impact on the operation of building stock. Future work could investigate direct mapping between climate risks and the financial value of properties. Originality/value – Findings of this paper can help professionals and building stockowners improve their understanding of climate change risks and the impact on their assets. This paper could also help these individuals to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

On the Applicability of Analytical Supply Chain Disruption Models for Selecting the Optimum Contingency Strategies for Electronic Supply Chain Disruption Management: A Comparison With Simulation

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Allison ◽  
Peter Sandborn ◽  
Bo Eriksson
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Supply Chain Disruption ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Disruption Mitigation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Due to the nature of the manufacturing and support activities associated with long life cycle products, the parts that products required need to be dependably and consistently available. However, the parts that comprise long lifetime products are susceptible to a variety of supply chain disruptions. In order to minimize the impact of these unavoidable disruptions to production, manufacturers can implement proactive mitigation strategies. Two mitigation strategies in particular have been proven to decrease the penalty costs associated with disruptions: second sourcing and buffering. Second sourcing involves selecting two distinct suppliers from which to purchase parts over the life of the part’s use within a product or organization. Second sourcing reduces the probability of part unavailability (and its associated penalties), but at the expense of qualification and support costs for multiple suppliers. An alternative disruption mitigation strategy is buffering (also referred to as hoarding). Buffering involves stocking enough parts in inventory to satisfy the forecasted part demand (for both manufacturing and maintenance requirements) for a fixed future time period so as to offset the impact of disruptions. Careful selection of the mitigation strategy (second sourcing, buffering, or a combination of the two) is key, as it can dramatically impact a part’s total cost of ownership. This paper studies the effectiveness of traditional analytical models compared to a simulation-based approach for the selection of an optimal disruption mitigation strategy. A verification case study was performed to check the accuracy and applicability of the simulation-based model. The case study results show that the simulation model is capable of replicating results from operations research models, and overcomes significant scenario restrictions that limit the usefulness of analytical models as decision-making tools. Four assumptions, in particular, severely limit the realism of most analytical models but do not constrain the simulation-based model. These limiting assumptions are: 1) no fixed costs associated with part orders, 2) infinite-horizon, 3) perfectly reliable backup supplier, and 4) disruptions lasting full ordering periods (as opposed to fractional periods).

Climate change impact evaluation in various regions in Europe on the base of ensemble modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromir Krzyszczak ◽  
Piotr Baranowski ◽  
Monika Zubik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Arable Fields ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

<p>Climate change uncertainty largely complicates adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level, therefore new approaches for managing this uncertainty are still being developed. In this study three crop models (DNDC, WOFOST and DSSAT) were used to explore the utility of impact response surfaces (IRS) and adaptation response surfaces (ARS) methodologies (Pirttioja et al., 2015; Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018).</p><p>To build IRS, the sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-1 to +6°C) and precipitation (-30 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather. Four levels of CO2 (360, 447, 522 and 601 ppm) representing future conditions until 2070 were considered. In turn, to build ARS, adaptation options were: shortening or extending the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing earlier or later than the standard date and additional irrigation. Preliminary data indicate that yields are declining with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation. Yield is more sensitive to changes in baseline temperature values and much less sensitive to changes in baseline precipitation values for arable fields in Finland, while for arable fields in Germany, ARS indicates yield sensitivity at a similar level for both variables. Also, our data suggests that some adaptation options provides increase of the yield up to 1500 kg/ha, which suggest that ARSs may be valuable tool for planning an effective adaptation treatments. This research shows how to analyze and assess the impact of adaptation strategies in the context of the high level of regional uncertainty in relation to future climate conditions. Developed methodology can be applied to other climatic zones to help in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p><p>This study has been partly financed from the funds of the Polish National Centre for Research and Development in frame of the project: MSINiN, contract number: BIOSTRATEG3/343547/8/NCBR/2017</p>

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