scholarly journals Different Models, Different Outcomes? A Comparison of Approaches to Land Use Modeling in the Dutch Limes

Heritage ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 2081-2104
Author(s):  
Philip Verhagen ◽  
Maurice de Kleijn ◽  
Jamie Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Roman Empire ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
Land Use Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Agricultural Demand

Current advances in spatial simulation bring unprecedented possibilities for spatio-temporal modeling. In this paper, we focus on modeling the impact of settlement on land use in the Roman period in the Dutch river area, on the northern frontier of the Roman Empire. During this period, the area witnessed a strong population increase that put more demands on the available land to produce food, not only for the local population, but also for the soldiers stationed on the frontier and the citizens of the newly founded towns. We compare an agent-based model (ABM) of agricultural production in the region (ROMFARMS), and a model using the Past Land Use Scanner (PLUS. Both were used to estimate the effects of increased agricultural demand through simulations of food production, taking into account the available workforce and the productivity and availability of suitable land. However, how should we evaluate the model outcomes? What are the advantages and limitations of each? We discuss issues of scale, temporal resolution and model inputs, together with questions of technical implementation and validation. In this way, we aim to point the way to future researchers to implement these approaches effectively in other contexts.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal variation of water supply in Guizhou Province, China

Water Policy ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiqing Han ◽  
Yuxiang Dong
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystem ◽  
Yield Model ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

Water supply is an important freshwater ecosystem service provided by ecosystems. Water shortages resulting from spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climate condition or human activities present serious problems in the Guizhou Province of southwest China. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of water supply service using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, explore how climate and land-use changes impact water supply provision, and discuss the impact of parameters associated with climate and land-use in the InVEST model on water supply in the region. We used data and the model to forecast trends for the year 2030 and found that water supply has been declining in the region at the watershed scale since 1990. Climate and land-use change played important roles in affecting the water supply. Water supply was overwhelmingly driven by the reference evapotranspiration and annual average precipitation, while the plant evapotranspiration coefficients for each land-use type had a relatively small effect. The method for sensitivity analysis developed in this study allowed exploration of the relative importance of parameters in the InVEST water yield model. The Grain-for-Green project, afforestation, and urban expansion control should be accelerated in this region to protect the water supply.

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Castro ◽  
Alan Poulos ◽  
Juan Carlos Herrera ◽  
Juan Carlos de la Llera
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
The Impact

Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

scholarly journals Hydrological Response of the Imphal River on the Impact of Landuse/ Landcover and Rainfall Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-135
Author(s):  
Kh. Pradipkumar Singh ◽  
◽  
Priyalina Sapam ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Land Use Pattern ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Landsat 7 ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
The Impact

The river regime is one of the important parameters in studying the physical attributes in a region. The influence of a river passing in a region is immense. The nature of the stream reflects the natural and cultural set up of the surrounding areas. For instance soil factors, Land use/Land cover and vegetation, habitat, settlements, etc. Everywhere land use/ land cover is often altered during the process of economic and social development and eventually, the morphology and structure of river systems are unconsciously or consciously influenced along with the land-use change. The changes in land use/ land cover have a large amount of impact on the nature of runoff and associated hydrological characteristics. Availability of remotely sensed data has made convenient and accurate to map and monitor the Spatio-temporal variation of land use/ land cover at regional or local scales. The present paper highlights the changing of land use pattern in the Imphal River catchment. To identify the changes, Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+ obtained in 2005 and 2016 have been used and categorize the images into 16 major land use/ land cover. It has been found that over the periods both rural and urban built-up area has increased more than 24 Km2 and decreased in forests cover area by more than 113 Km2 . Further, the study also focused on the rainfallrunoff response through regression analysis. The integration of the analyses demonstrates the effect of land use/ land cover change on discharge characteristics of the study area.

Corruption risks in the sphere of land relations and directions of their minimization

Ekonomika APK ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 321 (7) ◽  
pp. 75-87
Author(s):  
Oksana Rykovska
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Local Population ◽  
National Level ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Land Relations ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Land Transactions ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the article is to identify corruption risks in the field of land relations, identify specific factors confirming the existence of a corruption component in agricultural land use to create a system of preventive measures and establish regulatory fuses, limit corruption influence on land transactions and protect human rights. Research methods. To achieve this goal, the following methods were used: analysis and synthesis (to determine the sources of corruption schemes in the field of land relations); correlation analysis (to establish the relationship between corruption and land use concentration); empirical (on the study of the consequences of corruption offenses in the field of land relations) and abstract-logical (to summarize the conclusions and formulate proposals). Research results. Identification of the main sources of corruption schemes in the field of agricultural land use contributes to the development of effective methods to combat these offenses. According to research by foreign scholars, the system of preventing abuse of office and obtaining illegal benefits by officials at all levels of government is built through: overcoming the monopoly, as the exclusive right of government agencies to carry out and control land transactions; clear legislative regulation of mechanisms of purchase and sale and other transactions with agricultural land; introduction of mechanisms of publicity, transparency and information openness in the land market. Disclosure of intentions to conduct land transactions, opening of operations, dissemination of information on approved agreements will reduce the interest of corrupt officials and protect legal actions. In addition to the types of corruption in the field of agricultural land use identified by the NACP, specific factors are outlined that confirm the existence of a corruption component, including: 1) conclusion of large land agreements (concentration of land use); 2) investment flows into land assets from offshore zones; 3) discretionary powers of a single body of executive power in the field of disposal of agricultural land. The establishment of regulatory safeguards on additional to generally accepted factors of corruption will limit the corrupt impact on land transactions and protect the rights of low-income people, small landholdings and other types of socio-economic exclusion. Scientific novelty сonsists in substantiating the need to single out large land agreements (concentration of land use) as transactions with significant corruption risk, when developing mechanisms to combat corruption at the national level. Practical significance. Addendum to the draft Anti-Corruption Strategy for 2021-2025 in terms of identifying key issues in the field of land relations by developing a special mechanism for concluding large agreements (land use concentration) with mandatory verification of sources of funds, verification of information on ultimate beneficial owners and verification of corporate structure permanent monitoring of the impact of concentrated land use on the observance of the rights of the local population and preservation of the environment will become an effective preventive anti-corruption measure in the field of land relations. Figs.: 3. Refs.: 27.

scholarly journals DYNAMICS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL URBAN EXPANSION IN SOUTH WEST DELHI REGION: A GEO-SPATIAL APPROACH FOR URBAN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W8 ◽  
pp. 373-379
Author(s):  
N. Sharma ◽  
A. Kaur ◽  
P. Bose
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Disaster ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Constantly increasing population and up-scaling economic growth has certainly contributed to fast-paced urban expansion, but simultaneously, as a result, has developed immense pressure on our natural resources. Among other unfavorable consequences, this has led to significant changes in the land use and land cover patterns in megacities all across the globe. As the impact of uncontrolled and unplanned development continues to alter life patterns, it has become imperative to study severe problems resulting from rapid development and leading to environmental pollution, disruptions in ecological structures, ever increasing pressure on natural resources and recurring urban disasters This paper presents an approach to address these challenges using geospatial data to study the land use and land cover change and the patterns and processes of urban growth. Spatio-temporal changes in land-use/land-cover were assessed over the years using multi-date high resolution satellite data. The land use classification was conducted using visual image interpretation technique wherein, study area was categorized into five different classes based on NRSC classification system namely agricultural, built-up, urban green (forest), and fallow land and water bodies. Post-classification change detection technique was used for the assessment of land-cover change and transition matrices of urban expansion were developed to quantify the changes. The results show that the city has been expanding majorly in its borders, where land masses have been converted from agriculture based rural areas to urban structures. An increase in the built-up category was observed with the transformation of agricultural and marginal land with an approximate change of 8.62% in the peri-urban areas. Urban areas are becoming more densely populated and open barren lands are converted into urban areas due to over population and migration from the rural areas of Delhi and thus increasing threat towards urban disaster. Conservation and sustainable management of various natural resources is recommended in order to minimize the impact of potential urban disasters.</p>

scholarly journals Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – A spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang A. Obermeier ◽  
Julia E. M. S. Nabel ◽  
Tammas Loughran ◽  
Kerstin Hartung ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Legacy Effects ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle, and hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable, but has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models, and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called Loss of Additional Sink Capacity (LASC). The LASC accounts for the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation which is not represented in bookkeeping models. In addition, fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations differs depending on the arbitrary chosen simulation time period and the historical timing of land use and land cover changes (including different accumulation periods for legacy effects). An approximation of fLULCC by DGVMs that is independent of the timing of land use and land cover changes and their legacy effects requires simulations assuming constant pre-industrial or present-day environmental forcings. Here, we analyze three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations for twelve models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components. The three estimations stem from the commonly performed simulation with transiently changing environmental conditions and two simulations that keep environmental conditions fixed, at pre-industrial and present-day conditions. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0 ± 0.6 PgC yr-1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8 ± 0.3 PgC yr-1). From 1850 onward, fLULCC accumulated to 189 ± 56 PgC with 40 ± 15 PgC from the LASC. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, Equatorial Africa and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates, in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM- compared to bookkeeping-approaches. By unraveling spatio-temporal variability in three alternative DGVM-derived fLULCC estimates, our results call for a harmonized attribution of model-derived fLULCC. We propose an approach that bridges bookkeeping and DGVM approaches for fLULCC estimation by adopting a mean DGVM-ensemble LASC for a defined reference period.

scholarly journals Global assessment of land cover changes and rural-urban interface in Portugal

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marj Tonini ◽  
Joana Parente ◽  
Mario Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The wildland-/rural-urban interface (WUI/RUI) is a particularly important aspect of the fire regime. In Mediterranean basin most of the fires in this pyro region are caused by humans and the risk and consequences are particularly high due to the close proximity to population, human infrastructures and urban areas. Population increase, urban growth and the rapid changes in land use incurred in Europe over the last 30 years has been unprecedented, especially nearby the metropolitan areas, and some of these trends are expected to continue. Associated to high socioeconomic development, Portugal experienced in the last decades significant land cover/land use changes (LCLUC), population dynamics and demographic trends in response to migration, rural abandonment, and ageing of rural population. This study aims to assess the evolution of RUI in Portugal, from 1990 to 2012, based on LCLUC providing also a quantitative characterization of forest fires dynamics in relation to the burnt area. Obtained results disclose important LCLUC which spatial distribution is far from uniform within the territory. A significant increase in artificial surfaces is registered nearby the main metropolitan communities of the northwest and littoral-central and southern regions, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land nearby the inland urban areas leads to an increase of uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas. Within agricultural areas, heterogeneous patches suffered the greatest changes and are the main contributors to the increase of urban areas. Moreover these are among the LCLU classes with higher burnt area, reasons why heterogeneous agricultural areas have been included in the definition of RUI. Finally, the mapped RUI’s area, burnt area and burnt area within RUI allow to conclude that, form 1990 to 2012 in Portugal, RUI increased more than two thirds and total burnt area decreased one third. Nevertheless, burnt area within RUI doubled, which emphasize the significance of RUI for land and fire managers. This research provides a first quantitative global assessment of RUI in Portugal and presents an innovative analysis on the impact of land use changes on burnt areas.

scholarly journals Impact of the Former Vineyard Land Use on the Productivity of Secondary Forest Herb Layer in the Little Carpathians (SW Slovakia)

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-262
Author(s):  
Lukáš Zima ◽  
Jozef Kollár ◽  
Ivana Vykouková
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Roman Empire ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Production Quality ◽  
Total Biomass ◽  
Herb Layer ◽  
Synanthropic Species ◽  
Shallow Soils ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forest Herb

AbstractThe Little Carpathians Mountains include a vineyard region with long tradition that dates back up to the Roman Empire period (and according to some opinions, even earlier). In the late 19th century, it was strongly impacted by the phylloxera epidemic, and the vineyard area has significantly reduced here. Large areas of the former vineyards are covered by forests, which mostly have formed spontaneously, but some of them were also planted. This contribution is focused on the impact of the former vineyard land use on the productivity (aboveground, belowground, and total biomass) of such forest herb layer. Research included also the forests, which occupy rocky mounds formed by rock gathering and their placement on the vineyard borders. There were sampled by following four stands, mostly differed by tree composition, origin, age, and succession stage: (i) up to 100 years old spontaneously formed thermophilous acidophilous oak forest on the former vineyard on the granite substrate, (ii) up to 100 years old spontaneously formed oak-dominated forest on the rocky (granite) mounds (borders between the former vineyards formed by rock gathering), (iii) 40–60 years old planted ash stands on the gneiss bedrock, and (iv) 40–60 years old planted ash-dominated stands on the rocky (gneiss) mounds. According to our results, the former land use modified original relief, where the former vineyards have modified soil profile and new relief forms rocky mounds were created. These mounds with no or just shallow soils are usually much less covered by vegetation, thus production of herb layer biomass is lower here than in the adjacent former vineyards. Moreover, rocky mounds show a higher ratio of synanthropic species and apophytes than the adjacent former vineyards, and same as for ratio of therophytes. The younger the stands on the former vineyards, the higher is the ratio of synanthropic species, apophytes, and therophytes. On the other hand, when estimating the production quantity, the values of herb layer production on the former vineyards are similar to those in natural oak-hornbeam forests found in the Little Carpathians Mts. and the adjacent regions, except for the rocky mounds covered by old oak forests, which are less productive. In other words, the former vineyard land use affects the herb layer production quality rather than quantity.

scholarly journals Changing Consumption Patterns—Drivers and the Environmental Impact

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasadhika Sharma ◽  
Trung Nguyen ◽  
Ulrike Grote
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Secondary Literature ◽  
Beef Demand ◽  
The Impact

Economic growth coupled with population increase and globalization have engendered structural changes in consumption patterns around the world. Contingent on their composition, these changes can be demanding on natural resources and pose unsustainable challenges for the environment. The paper aims to provide a general framework to assess the link between changing consumption patterns and their environmental impact by focusing on the rising beef demand in Vietnam. It draws from secondary literature and data to find that the increased beef demand in Vietnam is mostly met domestically, but there is a major dependency on imports. Within Vietnam, the rising demand has contributed substantially to the carbon footprint and land use and raised waste disposal concerns. To understand the impact of Vietnamese beef demand at the global level, the paper looks at Australia. Carbon footprint and land use are estimated to provide a perspective on the plausible scale of environmental damage that can be ensued in the future. Changes in consumption patterns are an integral part of our world and will play a significant role in determining the sustainable future of our planet. Therefore, it is important to attain a better understanding of the theme and its possible impact on the environment.

scholarly journals Robustness to bad frames in angular differential imaging: a local weighting approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 634 ◽  
pp. A2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Flasseur ◽  
Loïc Denis ◽  
Éric Thiébaut ◽  
Maud Langlois
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Optics ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
Local Fluctuations ◽  
Image Patches ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Differential Imaging ◽  
The Impact

Context. The detection of exoplanets by direct imaging is very challenging. It requires an extreme adaptive-optics (AO) system and a coronagraph as well as suitable observing strategies. In angular differential imaging, the signal-to-noise ratio is improved by combining several observations. Aims. Due to the evolution of the observation conditions and of the AO correction, the quality of the observations may vary significantly during the observing sequence. It is common practice to reject images of comparatively poor quality. We aim to decipher when this selection should be performed and what its impact on detection performance is. Methods. Rather than discarding a full image, we study the local fluctuations of the signal at each frame and derive weighting maps for each frame. These fluctuations are modeled locally directly from the data through the spatio-temporal covariance of small image patches. The weights derived from the temporal variances can be used to improve the robustness of the detection step and reduce estimation errors of both the astrometry and photometry. The impact of bad frames can be analyzed by statistically characterizing the detection and estimation performance. Results. When used together with a modeling of the spatial covariances (PACO algorithm), these weights improve the robustness of the detection method. Conclusions. The spatio-temporal modeling of the background fluctuations provides a way to exploit all acquired frames. In the case of bad frames, areas with larger fluctuations are discarded by a weighting strategy and do not corrupt the detection map or the astrometric and photometric estimations. Other areas of better quality are preserved and are included to detect and characterize sources.

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