scholarly journals Associations between Weather, Air Quality and Moderate Extreme Cancer-Related Mortality Events in Augsburg, Southern Germany

Author(s):  
Patrick Olschewski ◽  
Irena Kaspar-Ott ◽  
Stephanie Koller ◽  
Gerhard Schenkirsch ◽  
Martin Trepel ◽  
...  

While many authors have described the adverse health effects of poor air quality and meteorological extremes, there remain inconsistencies on a regional scale as well as uncertainty about the single and joint effects of atmospheric predictors. In this context, we investigated the short-term impacts of weather and air quality on moderate extreme cancer-related mortality events for the urban area of Augsburg, Southern Germany, during the period 2000–2017. First, single effects were uncovered by applying a case-crossover routine. The overall impact was assessed by performing a Mann–Whitney U testing scheme. We then compared the results of this procedure to extreme noncancer-related mortality events. In a second step, we found periods with contemporaneous significant predictors and carried out an in-depth analysis of these joint-effect periods. We were interested in the atmospheric processes leading to the emergence of significant conditions. Hence, we applied the Principal Component Analysis to large-scale synoptic conditions during these periods. The results demonstrate a strong linkage between high-mortality events in cancer patients and significantly above-average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5) during the late winter through spring period. These were mainly linked to northerly to easterly weak airflow under stable, high-pressure conditions. Especially in winter and spring, this can result in low temperatures and a ground-level increase and the accumulation of air pollution from heating and traffic as well as eastern lateral advection of polluted air. Additionally, above-average temperatures were shown to occur on the days before mortality events from mid-summer through fall, which was also caused by high-pressure conditions with weak wind flow and intense solar radiation. Our approach can be used to analyse medical data with epidemiological as well as climatological methods while providing a more vivid representation of the underlying atmospheric processes.

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3839-3864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
George Pouliot ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Shawn Roselle ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry – Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 24857-24881 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Ashworth ◽  
G. Folberth ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
O. Wild

Abstract. Large-scale production of feedstock crops for biofuels will lead to land-use changes. We quantify the effects of realistic land use change scenarios for biofuel feedstock production on isoprene emissions and hence atmospheric composition and chemistry using the HadGEM2 model. Two feedstocks are considered: oil palm for biodiesel in the tropics and short rotation coppice (SRC) in the mid-latitudes. In total, 69 Mha of oil palm and 92 Mha of SRC are planted, each sufficient to replace just over 1 % of projected global fossil fuel demand in 2020. Both planting scenarios result in increases in total global annual isoprene emissions of about 1 %. In each case, changes in surface concentrations of ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (bSOA) are significant at the regional scale and are detectable even at a global scale with implications for air quality standards. However, the changes in tropospheric burden of ozone and the OH radical, and hence effects on global climate, are negligible. The oil palm plantations and processing plants result in global average annual mean increases in ozone and bSOA of 38 pptv and 2 ng m−3 respectively. Over SE Asia, one region of planting, increases reach over 2 ppbv and 300 ng m−3 for large parts of Borneo. Planting of SRC causes global annual mean changes of 46 pptv and 3 ng m−3. Europe experiences peak monthly mean changes of almost 0.6 ppbv and 90 ng m−3 in June and July. Large areas of Central and Eastern Europe see changes of over 1.5 ppbv and 200 ng m−3 in the summer. That such significant atmospheric impacts from low level planting scenarios are discernible globally clearly demonstrates the need to include changes in emissions of reactive trace gases such as isoprene in life cycle assessments performed on potential biofuel feedstocks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 5899-5909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yucong Miao ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
Shuhua Liu

Abstract. Rapid urbanization and industrialization have led to deterioration of air quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region due to high loadings of PM2.5. Heavy aerosol pollution frequently occurs in winter, in close relation to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) meteorology. To unravel the physical processes that influence PBL structure and aerosol pollution in BTH, this study combined long-term observational data analyses, synoptic pattern classification, and meteorology–chemistry coupled simulations. During the winter of 2017 and 2018, Beijing and Tangshan often experienced heavy PM2.5 pollution simultaneously, accompanied by strong thermal inversion aloft. These concurrences of pollution in different cities were primarily regulated by the large-scale synoptic conditions. Using principal component analysis with geopotential height fields at the 850 hPa level during winter, two typical synoptic patterns associated with heavy pollution in BTH were identified. One pattern is characterized by a southeast-to-north pressure gradient across BTH, and the other is associated with high pressure in eastern China. Both synoptic types feature warmer air temperature at 1000 m a.g.l., which could suppress the development of the PBL. Under these unfavorable synoptic conditions, aerosols can modulate PBL structure through the radiative effect, which was examined using numerical simulations. The aerosol radiative effect can significantly lower the daytime boundary layer height through cooling the surface layer and heating the upper part of the PBL, leading to the deterioration of air quality. This PBL–aerosol feedback is sensitive to the aerosol vertical structure, which is more effective when the synoptic pattern can distribute more aerosols to the upper PBL.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
George Pouliot ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Shawn Roselle ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental U.S. for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ Process Analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couple fluctuations in free tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry – Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), GEOS-Chem, and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the mid- and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8-hr average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS, GEOS-Chem, and H-CMAQ driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 3097-3110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yucong Miao ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Shuhua Liu ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Zhanqing Li ◽  
...  

Abstract. Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 919-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Ashworth ◽  
G. Folberth ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
O. Wild

Abstract. Large-scale production of feedstock crops for biofuels will lead to land use changes. We quantify the effects of realistic land use change scenarios for biofuel feedstock production on isoprene emissions and hence atmospheric composition and chemistry using the HadGEM2 model. Two feedstocks are considered: oil palm for biodiesel in the tropics and short rotation coppice (SRC) in the mid-latitudes. In total, 69 Mha of oil palm and 9 Mha of SRC are planted, each sufficient to replace just over 1% of projected global fossil fuel demand in 2020. Both planting scenarios result in increases in total global annual isoprene emissions of about 1%. In each case, changes in surface concentrations of ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (bSOA) are substantial at the regional scale, with implications for air quality standards. However, the changes in tropospheric burden of ozone and the OH radical, and hence effects on global climate, are negligible. Over SE Asia, one region of oil palm planting, increases in annual mean surface ozone and bSOA concentrations reach over 3 ppbv (+11%) and 0.4 μg m−3 (+10%) respectively for parts of Borneo, with monthly mean increases of up to 6.5 ppbv (+25%) and 0.5 μg m−3 (+12%). Under the SRC scenario, Europe experiences monthly mean changes of over 0.6 ppbv (+1%) and 0.1 μg m−3 (+5%) in June and July, with peak increases of over 2 ppbv (+3%) and 0.5 μg m−3 (+8 %). That appreciable regional atmospheric impacts result from low level planting scenarios demonstrates the need to include changes in emissions of reactive trace gases such as isoprene in life cycle assessments performed on potential biofuel feedstocks.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 7373-7387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naifang Bei ◽  
Guohui Li ◽  
Ru-Jin Huang ◽  
Junji Cao ◽  
Ning Meng ◽  
...  

Abstract. Rapid industrialization and urbanization have caused severe air pollution in the Guanzhong basin, northwestern China, with heavy haze events occurring frequently in recent winters. Using the NCEP reanalysis data, the large-scale synoptic situations influencing the Guanzhong basin during wintertime of 2013 are categorized into six types to evaluate the contribution of synoptic situations to the air pollution, including “north-low”, “southwest-trough”, “southeast-high”, “transition”, “southeast-trough”, and “inland-high”. The FLEXPART model has been utilized to demonstrate the corresponding pollutant transport patterns for the typical synoptic situations in the basin. Except for “southwest-trough” and “southeast-high” (defined as favorable synoptic situations), the other four synoptic conditions (defined as unfavorable synoptic situations) generally facilitate the accumulation of air pollutants, causing heavy air pollution in the basin. In association with the measurement of PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in the basin, the unfavorable synoptic situations correspond to high PM2.5 mass concentrations or poor air quality and vice versa. The same analysis has also been applied to winters of 2008–2012, which shows that the basin was mainly influenced by the unfavorable synoptic situations during wintertime leading to poor air quality. The WRF-CHEM model has further been applied to simulate the selected 6 days representing the typical synoptic situations during the wintertime of 2013, and the results generally show a good agreement between the modeled distributions and variations of PM2.5 and the corresponding synoptic situations, demonstrating reasonable classification for the synoptic situations in the basin. Detailed meteorological conditions, such as temperature inversion, low-level horizontal wind speed, and planetary boundary layer, all contribute to heavy air pollution events in the basin under unfavorable synoptic conditions. Considering the proportion of occurrence of unfavorable synoptic situations during wintertime, reduction of emissions is the optimum approach to mitigate the air pollution in the Guanzhong basin.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bei ◽  
G. Li ◽  
R. Huang ◽  
J. Cao ◽  
N. Meng ◽  
...  

Abstract. Rapid industrialization and urbanization have caused severe air pollution in the Guanzhong basin, northwestern China with heavy haze events occurring frequently in recent winters. Using the NCEP reanalysis data, the large scale synoptic situations influencing the Guanzhong basin during wintertime of 2013 are categorized into six types to evaluate the contribution of synoptic situations to the air pollution, including "north-low", "southwest-trough", "southeast-high", "transition", "southeast-trough", and "inland-high". The FLEXPART model has been utilized to demonstrate the corresponding pollutant transport patterns for the typical synoptic situations in the basin. Except "southwest-trough" and "southeast-high" (defined as favorable synoptic situations), the rest four synoptic conditions (defined as unfavorable synoptic situations) generally facilitate the accumulation of air pollutants, causing heavy air pollution in the basin. In association with the measurement of PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) in the basin, the unfavorable synoptic situations correspond to high PM2.5 mass concentrations or poor air quality and vice versa. The same analysis has also been applied to winters of 2008–2012, which shows that the basin was mainly influenced by the unfavorable synoptic situations during wintertime leading to poor air quality. The WRF-CHEM model has further been applied to simulate the selected six days representing the typical synoptic situations during the wintertime of 2013, and the results generally show a good consistence between the modeled distributions and variations of PM2.5 and the corresponding synoptic situations, demonstrating reasonable classification for the synoptic situations in the basin. Detailed meteorological conditions, such as temperature inversion, low-level horizontal wind speed, vertical wind velocity, and convergence all contribute to heavy air pollution events in the basin under unfavorable synoptic conditions. Considering the proportion of occurrence of unfavorable synoptic situations during wintertime, reduction of emissions is the optimum approach to mitigate the air pollution in the Guanzhong basin.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 8647-8663 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Pierce ◽  
D. M. Westervelt ◽  
S. A. Atwood ◽  
E. A. Barnes ◽  
W. R. Leaitch

Abstract. Aerosol particle nucleation, or new-particle formation, is the dominant contributor to particle number in the atmosphere. However, these particles must grow through condensation of low-volatility vapors without coagulating with the larger, preexisting particles in order to reach climate-relevant sizes (diameters larger than 50–100 nm), where the particles may affect clouds and radiation. In this paper, we use 1 year of size-distribution measurements from Egbert, Ontario, Canada to calculate the frequency of regional-scale new-particle-formation events, new-particle-formation rates, growth rates and the fraction of new particles that survive to reach climate-relevant sizes. Regional-scale new-particle-formation events occur on 14–31% of the days (depending on the stringency of the classification criteria), with event frequency peaking in the spring and fall. New-particle-formation rates and growth rates are similar to those measured at other midlatitude continental sites. We calculate that roughly half of the climate-relevant particles (with diameters larger than 50–100 nm) at Egbert are formed through new-particle-formation events. With the addition of meteorological and SO2 measurements, we find that new-particle formation at Egbert often occurs under synoptic conditions associated with high surface pressure and large-scale subsidence that cause sunny conditions and clean-air flow from the north and west. However, new-particle formation also occurs when air flows from the polluted regions to the south and southwest of Egbert. The new-particle-formation rates tend to be faster during events under the polluted south/southwest flow conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7782
Author(s):  
Wenjing Zeng ◽  
Yongde Zhong ◽  
Dali Li ◽  
Jinyang Deng

The recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS) has been widely recognized as an effective tool for the inventory and planning of outdoor recreational resources. However, its applications have been primarily focused on forest-dominated settings with few studies being conducted on all land types at a regional scale. The creation of a ROS is based on physical, social, and managerial settings, with the physical setting being measured by three criteria: remoteness, size, and evidence of humans. One challenge to extending the ROS to all land types on a large scale is the difficulty of quantifying the evidence of humans and social settings. Thus, this study, for the first time, developed an innovative approach that used night lights as a proxy for evidence of humans and points of interest (POI) for social settings to generate an automatic ROS for Hunan Province using Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis. The whole province was classified as primitive (2.51%), semi-primitive non-motorized (21.33%), semi-primitive motorized (38.60%), semi-developed natural (30.99%), developed natural (5.61%), and highly developed (0.96%), which was further divided into three subclasses: large-natural (0.63%), small natural (0.27%), and facilities (0.06%). In order to implement the management and utilization of natural recreational resources in Hunan Province at the county (city, district) level, the province’s 122 counties (cities, districts) were categorized into five levels based on the ROS factor dominance calculated at the county and provincial levels. These five levels include key natural recreational counties (cities, districts), general natural recreational counties (cities, districts), rural counties (cities, districts), general metropolitan counties (cities, districts), and key metropolitan counties (cities, districts), with the corresponding numbers being 8, 21, 50, 24, and 19, respectively.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document