scholarly journals Global Economy: New Risks and Leadership Problems

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Viacheslav M. Shavshukov ◽  
Natalia A. Zhuravleva
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Continuous Change ◽  
Global Finance ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Special Drawing Rights

After the global crisis of 2008–2009, the world economy entered the era of restructuring. This article focuses on the risks that a new leader will face in the process of shaping the world economy. The methods employed in the research include big data processing of continuous change and the results of the symmetric macroeconomic analysis based on the statistics collected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Word Bank (WB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Central banks and Treasuries. The study results proved that the recessionary processes, their depth and global nature, are caused by a combination of world financial system crises and general civilization problems. These new systemic risks for the world economy might result in new global crises that will limit the resources of international financial institutions for sustainable development. Besides, for most banks these crises will mean shifting a big share of derivatives to the off-balance liabilities, using Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in deals, followed by an increase in state and corporate debts, trade wars, a slowdown of economic development in China, and widening contradictions between global and national finances. Regular research and systematization have developed certain guidelines for the global economic restructuring process. First of all, it is recommended on the base of interstate compromises to focus on international agreements to ensure a solid foundation for global finance. On the basis of the comparative analysis carried out for the USA, China and other counties, it was made clear that no one leader in world economy in 21st century views the world reserve as based on the currency of one country only. Instead, there will be a slow transition to using Special Drawing Rights (SDR) with a basket from 15–20 currencies G20.

On the Question of Socio-Economic “Sunset” of Big Countries: Praeteritum et Praesens

2014 ◽  
pp. 115-124
Author(s):  
A. Mal'tsev
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa

The author deals with the problem of the great nations’ fall. Special attention is paid to critical interpretation of institutional and cultural explanations of socio-economic systems’ degradation. It has been proved that these approaches are unable to completely explain complex processes of big countries decline. The main weakness of institutional hypothesis lies in its focusing mainly on political rights of population and democracy. In particular, institutional approach fails to interpret the relative socio-economic decline of such countries with “excellent” institutions, as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. In their turn, “cultural determinists” are incapable of giving satisfactory explanation of China’s decline in XIX century as well as China’s economic steep rise in the end of the end of XX and the beginning of XXI centuries. The exogenous interpretation of nations’ fail which is gaining popularity most recently also faces a number of serious objections. The most important is simplified representation of the evolution of the world economy as a result of force-majeure circumstances. The author presents its own concept of leading countries’ economic decline. The main idea is that the key factor determining the decline of great powers is connected with technology progress. Author believes that the change in the balance of forces in the world economy is caused by the difficulties with the transition of dominating power to the new technological paradigm. General algorithm of losing the leadership is as follows: instead of destruction of institutional barriers which prevent launching the next wave of technological and economic development, the country fails to resist the illusion of possibility to maintain the dominant role in the global hierarchy by outsourcing its industrial sector to global periphery and accelerating the growth of service sector. However, service sector is a weak generator of economic growth. Tertiary sector’s overgrowth undermines the stability of the economic system just to external shocks and in the long run is capable to weaken the competitiveness of the state in the global economy. As a result, torn apart by internal contradictions, de-industrialized economy cedes leadership to rapidly copying technological innovations and speedily industrializing catching-up countries. This hypothesis is verified by the cases of Great Britain at the beginning of the XX century and the USA in the beginning of the XXI century. Acknowledgement. The article has been prepared in the framework of youth grant of Astana Club of Nobel prizewinners of 2014.

The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
National Economies

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

Cyclic Economic Dynamics and Deflationary Phenomena: Analysis and Forecasts

2018 ◽  
pp. 48-62
Author(s):  
Руслан Гринберг ◽  
Ruslan Grinberg ◽  
Леонид Гринин ◽  
Leonid Grinin ◽  
Андрей Коротаев ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Western Economy ◽  
The World

The modern deflationary phenomena in the western and global economy are attributed to the fact that currently it is at the downward phase of the fifth long K-wave. Deflation has always been typical for the depressive periods in economy; presently it also manifests itself as the world economy has turned global, yet it lacks any control mechanisms. The authors suppose that a new economic crisis will break out in the western economy in the second half of 2018–2019 and that the depressive and deflationary trends will continue for another number of years.

The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Social Conditions ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The United Nations

This volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its seventieth anniversary. Prepared at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and first published in 1948 as the World Economic Report (subsequently renamed the WESS), it is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication of this kind, recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends, and offering relevant policy recommendations. This volume highlights how well WESS has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses have influenced and have been influenced by the prevailing discourse over the past seven decades. The volume critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policymaking and the shaping of the world economy. Although world economic and social conditions have changed significantly over the past seven decades and so have the policy recommendations of the Survey, some of its earlier recommendations remain relevant today; recommendations in WESS provided seven decades ago seem remarkably pertinent as the world currently struggles to regain high levels of employment and economic activity. Thus, in many ways, WESS was ahead of the curve on many substantive issues. Publication of this volume will enhance the interest of the wider community of policymakers, academics, development practitioners, and members of civil society in the analytical work of the UN in general and UN-DESA in particular.

The world economy

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Capital Market

Developments in the Asian economies have clearly begun to be felt in the wider global economy in recent months. It has always been expected that the OECD economies would be affected by the aftermath of the capital market turmoil last year, although the timing and magnitude of the impact was difficult to predict. Domestic demand in the affected Asian economies has proved much weaker than expected, with the effects magnified by a continued downturn in Japan. GDP fell by 5¾ per cent in Korea in the first quarter of this year and by 1¼ per cent in Japan. The aggregate volume of merchandise imports in Asia is expected to decline by around 5½ per cent this year, with falls of up to 25 per cent in countries such as Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. This largely accounts for our projected decline in world trade growth to under 6 per cent this year from an estimated 9¾ per cent in 1997.

POSSIBILITIES OF REALIZATION OF SERVICE SECTOR POTENTIAL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Melnichuk
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade In Services ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The World

The relevance of the study is due to the growing role of services in the world economy. Trade in services has become the dominant driver of economic growth and development in both developed and developing economies. Since the 1980s, data suggest that there is a stronger relationship between trade in services and gross domestic product (GDP) than in the case of commodity growth and GDP. It is noted that the quality of policies, regulations and institutional frameworks is a key factor in determining the effectiveness of services. As services are increasingly subject to liberalization through multilateral and regional trade agreements, it is important that countries develop harmonized approaches to internal regulation and trade liberalization in the services sector. The article identifies the features and characteristics of the service sector as a factor of multifaceted development and growth. The dynamics of international trade in services by geographical structure and types of development of countries is studied on the basis of statistical data of international organizations, taking into account the impact of the pandemic. It is noted that international trade in services is becoming an increasingly important part of global commerce. The problematic aspects of the activity of small business entities to enter foreign markets of services are considered. The issue of urgency of digital economy development for the sphere of services and contribution to world markets is outlined. Opening up the services sector has the potential to bring great benefits and deserves more attention. Further prospects for the realization of entrepreneurial potential in a comprehensive global economy are outlined. It is noted that services are an important part of the world economy, generating more than two-thirds of world gross domestic product (GDP), attracting more than three-quarters of foreign direct investment in developed economies, and creating most of new jobs worldwide. Establishing effective coordination mechanisms between trade negotiators, policymakers and regulators will be an important tool for the development of the global economy.

POSTINDUSTRIALIZATION AND DEINDUSTRIALIZATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC SECURITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (199) ◽  
pp. 9-17
Author(s):  
V.A. Noskov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
National Security ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Regional Features ◽  
The World ◽  
Post Industrial

The purpose of the publication is to assess the world experience of post-industrial development and deindustrialization in the economies of both developed and developing countries. The importance of the crisis of the post-industrial paradigm for the development of the world economy, the application of this experience in the process of import substitution and the unfolding reindustrialization in Russia is noted. The analysis of the world experience of post-industrial development and deindustrialization of the economy, its macro-regional features is carried out in the context of maintaining and developing Russia's economic security. The author's understanding of the problems and prospects of the development of import substitution and reindustrialization processes in the world is proposed. Import substitution is considered as part of the strategy of economic development and ensuring the national security of the country. It is proposed to build recommendations for improving the policy of import substitution and reindustrialization carried out by Russia, taking into account the author's developments.

United States and Its Challenge to Multilateralism in the Global Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-419
Author(s):  
Krishnakumar S.
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Merchandise Trade

With Donald Trump as President of United States, multilateralism in the world economy is facing an unprecedented challenge. The international economic institutions that have evolved since the fifties are increasingly under the risk of being undermined. With the growing assertion of the emerging and developing economies in the international fora, United States is increasingly sceptical of its ability to maneuvre such institutions to suit its own purpose. This is particularly true with respect to WTO, based on “one country one vote” system. The tariff rate hikes initiated by the leader country in the recent past pose a serious challenge to the multilateral trading system. The paper tries to undertake a critical overview of the US pre-occupation of targeting economies on the basis of the bilateral merchandise trade surpluses of countries, through the trade legislations like Omnibus Act and Trade Facilitation Act. These legislations not only ignore the growing share of the United States in the growing invisibles trade in the world economy, but also read too much into the bilateral trade surpluses of economies with United States and the intervention done by them in the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals Chronic macro-economic and financial imbalances in the world economy: a meta-economic view

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-226
Author(s):  
ROBERT GUTTMANN
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Finance ◽  
Offshore Banking ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Economic View ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
The World ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Financial Concentration

Global finance, combining offshore banking and universal banks to drive a broader globalization process, has transformed the modus operandi of the world economy. This requires a new "meta-economic" framework in which short-term portfolio-investment flows are treated as the dominant phenomenon they have become. Organized by global finance, these layered bi-directional flows between center and periphery manage a tension between financial concentration and monetary fragmentation. The resulting imbalances express the asymmetries built into that tension and render the exchange rate a more strategic policy variable than ever.

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