scholarly journals Assessing and Comparing COVID-19 Intervention Strategies Using a Varying Partial Consensus Fuzzy Collaborative Intelligence Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 1725
Author(s):  
Hsin-Chieh Wu ◽  
Yu-Cheng Wang ◽  
Tin-Chih Toly Chen

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted our daily lives. For tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, various intervention strategies have been adopted by country (or city) governments around the world. However, whether an intervention strategy will be successful, acceptable, and cost-effective or not is still questionable. To address this issue, a varying partial consensus fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach is proposed in this study to assess an intervention strategy. In the varying partial consensus fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach, multiple decision makers express their judgments on the relative priorities of factors critical to an intervention strategy. If decision makers lack an overall consensus, the layered partial consensus approach is applied to aggregate their judgments for each critical factor. The number of decision makers that reach a partial consensus varies from a critical factor to another. Subsequently, the generalized fuzzy weighted assessment approach is proposed to evaluate the overall performance of an intervention strategy for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed methodology has been applied to compare 15 existing intervention strategies for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Cheng Lin ◽  
Yu-Cheng Wang ◽  
Tin-Chih Toly Chen ◽  
Hai-Fen Lin

Fall detection is a critical task in an aging society. To fulfill this task, smart technology applications have great potential. However, it is not easy to choose a suitable smart technology application for fall detection. To address this issue, a fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach is proposed in this study. In the fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach, alpha-cut operations are applied to derive the fuzzy weights of criteria for each decision maker. Then, fuzzy intersection is applied to aggregate the fuzzy weights derived by all decision makers. Subsequently, the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution is applied to assess the suitability of a smart technology application for fall detection. The fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach is a posterior-aggregation method that guarantees a consensus exists among decision makers. After applying the fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach to assess the suitabilities of four existing smart technology applications for fall detection, the most and least suitable smart technology applications were smart carpet and smart cane, respectively. In addition, the ranking result using the proposed methodology was somewhat different from those using three existing methods.


Author(s):  
Steven Wilcox ◽  
Richard Wilkins ◽  
Martin Lyons

Many organisations are currently dealing with long standing legacy issues in clean up, decommissioning and demolition projects. Industry is required to ensure that all bulk articles, substances and waste arisings are adequately characterised and assigned to the correct disposal routes in compliance with UK legislation and best practice. It is essential that data used to support waste sentencing is of the correct type, quality and quantity, and that it is appropriately assessed in order to support defensible, confident decisions that account for inherent uncertainties. AMEC has adopted the Data Quality Objectives (DQO) based methodology and the software package Visual Sample Plan (VSP) to provide a better, faster, and more cost effective approach to meeting regulatory and client requirements, whilst minimising the time spent gathering data and assessing the information. The DQO methodology is based on a scientific approach that requires clear objectives to be established from the outset of a project and that there is a demonstration of acceptability of the results. Through systematic planning, the team develops acceptance or performance criteria for the quality of the data collected and for the confidence in the final decision. The systematic planning process promotes communication between all departments and individuals involved in the decision-making process thus the planning phase gives an open and unambiguous method to support the decisions and enables the decision-makers (technical authorities on the materials of concern) to document all assumptions. The DQO process allows better planning, control and understanding of all the issues. All types of waste can be sentenced under one controllable system providing a more defensible position. This paper will explain that the DQO process consists of seven main steps that lead to a detailed Sampling and Analysis Plan (SAP). The process gives transparency to any assumptions made about the site or material being characterised and identifies individuals involved. The associated calculation effort is reduced using the statistically based sampling models produced with VSP. The first part of this paper explains the DQO based methodology and Visual Sample Plan and the second part shows how the DQO process has been applied in practice.


2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Talent Raymond Makhanya

Malaria, the most prevalent parasitic disease, is considered a neglected disease owing to insufficient research and development in synthesis and therapy worldwide. Therapy failures are frequent and are due to a variety of factors such as the intrinsic characteristics of the disease, conditions of transmission, and the difficult control of spreading through tropical areas. Primary factors are the complexity of the parasite life cycle and the development of drug resistance. Another critical factor is the increasing number of immune-compromised patients that suffer from malaria and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infections. Most of the drugs currently available to treat malaria are quinoline derivatives modelled on the quinine molecule, found in the bark of Cinchona trees. Over the last 50 years the use of quinine has declined owing to the development of synthetic 4-aminoquinolines such as chloroquine. However, the malaria parasite is rapidly becoming resistant to the drugs currently available. Recently bisquinoline compounds were found more potent than chloroquine against both chloroquine-sensitive and resistant strains of malaria; this improved efficacy and prompted an increased interest in the design of these anti-malarial drugs. Although several synthetic methods are available to synthesise bisquinolines, we report the synthesis of bisquinolines from simple, readily available and cost- effective starting compounds. The synthesis was accomplished in four reaction steps using the Claisen condensation, Vilsmeir-Haack reaction, formation of a Schiff base and thermal cyclization, sequentially. We used a conventional energy source and microwave irradiation for the synthesis, wherever possible, of 2, 4-dichloro-3, 4'-biquinoline and 2, 4-dichloro-7'-methoxy-3, 4'-biquinoline. In the first step, 3-acyl-2, 4-dihydroxyquinoline is synthesised from an equimolar mixture of methyl-2-aminobenzoate and ethyl acetoacetate by microwave irradiation for 3 minutes; the yield is 90 % whereas by 6 hours refluxing the yield is 75 %. This is followed by the synthesis of 3-chloro-3-(2,4-dichloroquinolin-3yl) acrylaldehyde, by combining DMF and POCl3 at 00C to form the electrophile which reacts with 3-acyl-2,4-dihydroxyquinoline under microwave irradiation for 5 minutes; the yield is 65 % whereas by 6 hours refluxing the yield is 50 %. In the next step, several protocols to prepare a Schiff base 3-chloro-3-(2, 4-dichloroquinolin-3-yl) allylidene aniline are investigated with the best yield of 75% obtained by microwave irradiation for 5 minutes. Subsequently three aniline derivatives viz, 4-methoxyaniline, 4-chloroaniline and 4-methylaniline, are used as substrate to prepare 3-chloro-3-(2,4-dichloroquinolin-3-yl) allylidene-4-methoxyaniline, 3-chloro-3-(2 ,4-dichloroquinolin-3-yl) allylidene-4-methylaniline and 3-chloro-3-(2, 4-dichloroquinolin-3-yl) allylidene-4-chloro aniline at 68, 78 and 64 % yield, respectively. In the final step, 2, 4-dichloro-3, 4'-biquinoline is prepared; several methods were investigated, however, the best yield is 24 % which is obtained under alkaline conditions in the presence of K2CO3 and DMF by microwave irradiation for 10 minutes. The 2, 4-dichloro-7'-methoxy-3, 4'-biquinoline derivative is also prepared in 18 % yield under the same alkaline conditions. The outline of the total synthesis of bisquinoline is presented graphically below.


Author(s):  
Luisa Dall'Acqua

Intelligence analysts are a task force of experts in the field of politics, economics, technology, military, and terrorism analysis. They possess the knowledge, sufficient capacity for imagination, and creativity to relate data predict events. The intelligence approach (basically) tries to reduce the uncertainty of this analysis to forecast the future without being privy to alternatives in the minds of policy decision makers. This chapter intends to describe a new interpretative socio-cognitive paradigm, Orientism, to understand and manage the fluid nature of knowledge, but at the same time to seize and manage the unpredictability and risks of dynamics of risk decision management in relationships complex environment. The new elements are five key factors and criteria to direct and motivate people in the choosing process and following 10 different and key relationships between them.


Chemosensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Dai Lu ◽  
Dong Zhang ◽  
Qian Zhao ◽  
Xiangyang Lu ◽  
Xingbo Shi

Unmodified gold nanoparticles (AuNPs)-based aptasensing (uGA) assay has been widely implemented in the determination of many different targets, but there are few reports on protein detection using uGA. Here, we designed a uGA assay for protein detection including the elimination of interfering proteins. Positively charged protein can be absorbed directly on the surface of AuNPs to form “protein corona”, which results in the aggregation of AuNPs even without salt addition, thereby preventing target protein detection. To overcome this problem, we systematically investigated the effect of modifying the pH of the solution during the uGA assay. A probe solution with a pH slightly higher than the isoelectric points (pI) of the target protein was optimal for protein detection in the uGA assay, allowing the aptamer to selectively detect the target protein. Three proteins (beta-lactoglobulin, lactoferrin, and lysozyme) with different pI were chosen as model proteins to validate our method. Positively charged interfering proteins (with pIs higher than the optimal pH) were removed by centrifugation of protein corona/AuNPs aggregates before the implementation of actual sample detection. Most importantly, the limit of detection (LOD) for all three model proteins was comparable to that of other methods, indicating the significance of modulating the pH. Moreover, choosing a suitable pH for a particular target protein was validated as a universal method, which is significant for developing a novel, simple, cost-effective uGA assay for protein detection.


Animals ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jen-Yun Chou ◽  
Keelin O’Driscoll ◽  
Rick B. D’Eath ◽  
Dale A. Sandercock ◽  
Irene Camerlink

Solutions are needed to keep pigs under commercial conditions without tail biting outbreaks (TBOs). However, as TBOs are inevitable, even in well managed farms, it is crucial to know how to manage TBOs when they occur. We evaluated the effectiveness of multi-step intervention protocols to control TBOs. Across 96 pens (1248 undocked pigs) managed on fully-slatted floors, 40 TBOs were recorded (≥3 out of 12–14 pigs with fresh tail wounds). When an outbreak was identified, either the biters or the victims were removed, or enrichment (three ropes) was added. If the intervention failed, another intervention was randomly used until all three interventions had been deployed once. Fifty percent of TBOs were controlled after one intervention, 30% after 2–3 interventions, and 20% remained uncontrolled. A high proportion of biters/victims per pen reduced intervention success more so than the type of intervention. When only one intervention was used, adding ropes was the fastest method to overcome TBOs. Removed biters and victims were successfully reintroduced within 14 days back to their home pens. In conclusion, 80% of TBOs were successfully controlled within 18.4 ± 1.7 days on average using one or multiple cost-effective intervention strategies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma E. Shields ◽  
Jamie Elvidge

AbstractEconomic evaluations help decision-makers faced with tough decisions on how to allocate resources. Systematic reviews of economic evaluations are useful as they allow readers to assess whether interventions have been demonstrated to be cost effective, the uncertainty in the evidence base, and key limitations or gaps in the evidence base. The synthesis of systematic reviews of economic evaluations commonly takes a narrative approach whereas a meta-analysis is common step for reviews of clinical evidence (e.g. effectiveness or adverse event outcomes). As they are common objectives in other reviews, readers may query why a synthesis has not been attempted for economic outcomes. However, a meta-analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, costs, or health benefits (including quality-adjusted life years) is fraught with issues largely due to heterogeneity across study designs and methods and further practical challenges. Therefore, meta-analysis is rarely feasible or robust. This commentary outlines these issues, supported by examples from the literature, to support researchers and reviewers considering systematic review of economic evidence.


1994 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 149-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Davis

Sludge treatment and disposal operations on a local or regional basis need careful planning to ensure that the strategy undertaken is environmentally acceptable, reliable and cost-effective. A database of information is needed for the area concerned which may include up to 100 wastewater treatment plants of varying size. Sludge quantities and quality have to be assessed now and into the future. Disposal options for sludge have to be analysed by an environmental assessment approach which studies the accessibility of all outlets, environmental legislation and attitudes of collaborating agencies and the public at large. Other wastes which may compete with sludge for disposal outlets must be considered. Outlets which involve recycling and beneficial use of sludge are advantageous but may not be practical. Sludge treatment must be evaluated in relation to the disposal options available. Sludge treatment centres, treating sludge from several surrounding wastewater plants, may be required especially if thermal drying or incineration are likely options. Economic evaluation has to consider capital and operating costs of sludge treatment and transport and other costs associated with disposal. The paper discusses how to evaluate all the information and options and find a suitable sludge treatment and disposal strategy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 39-49
Author(s):  
Sarah Goswami ◽  
Vicki Lane

Increasingly, government departments are being held accountable for investment in public services. In Queensland the Financial Accountability Act 2009 (Queensland Treasury, 2016) requires that accountable officers and statutory bodies ‘achieve reasonable value for money by ensuring the operations of the department or statutory body are carried out efficiently, effectively and economically’ (Section 61). Whilst there is a directive for agencies to evaluate and demonstrate value for money, it has in practice been difficult to embed long term, as many systems and decision makers have neglected the role of organisation-wide evaluation capital. This paper will outline the work being undertaken in the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (DAF) to implement an Impact and Investment Framework, which will support and embed evaluation in a multidisciplinary setting. A central tenant of this framework is ‘business empowerment and learning'—building the evaluation culture in the organisation by first establishing evaluation building blocks, through business empowerment, support and utility. The framework is comprised of five key elements and is built on the principles of evaluation and evaluation capacity building disciplines. It has been designed to be low-cost, effective and efficient, whilst enabling business improvement, meeting accountability needs and allowing the department to demonstrate the value of its work.


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