Predicting the Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Endangered Endemic Vascular Plant Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby in Egypt

Knowledge about population attributes, current geographic distribution, and changes over predicted climate change for many threatened endemic vascular plants is particularly limited in arid mountain environments. Primula boveana is one of the rarest and threatened plants worldwide, surviving exclusively in Saint Catherine Protectorate in the Sinaic biogeographic subsector of Egypt. This study aimed to define the current state of P. boveana populations, predict its current potential distribution, and use the best-model outputs to guide in field sampling and to forecast its future distribution under two climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt algorithm was used by relating 10 occurrence-points with different environmental predictors (27 bioclimatic, 3 topographic, and 8 edaphic factors). At the current knowledge level, the population size of P. boveana consists of 796 individuals, including 137 matures, distributed in only 250 m2. The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCorA) displayed that population attributes (density, cover, size index, and plant vigor) were positively correlated with elevation, precipitation, and pH. Based on the best-fitting model, most predicted suitable central sites (69 km2) of P. boveana were located in the cool shaded high-elevated middle northern part of St. Catherine. Elevation, precipitation, temperature, and soil pH were the key contributors to P. boveana distribution in Egypt. After field trips in suitable predicted sites, we confirmed five extinct localities where P. boveana has been previously recorded and no new population was found. The projected map showed an upward range shift through the contraction of sites between 1800 and 2000 m and expansion towards high elevation (above 2000 m) at the southern parts of the St. Catherine area. To conserve P. boveana, it is recommended to initiate in situ conservation through reinforcement and reintroduction actions.

Download Full-text

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region

10.20944/preprints202112.0213.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rohitashw Kumar ◽

Saika Manzoor ◽

Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma ◽

N. L. Kushwaha ◽

Ahmed Elbeltagi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Model Performance ◽

High Elevation ◽

Himalayan Region ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Mountain Environments ◽

Elevation Data

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

Download Full-text

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽

10.3897/neobiota.58.33118 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 58 ◽

pp. 129-160

Author(s):

Anna Schertler ◽

Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽

Dietmar Moser ◽

Johannes Wessely ◽

Franz Essl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Current Distribution ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

The Black Sea ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Grid Cells ◽

Myocastor Coypus ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

Download Full-text

Earlier Snowmelt Advances Breeding Phenology of the Common Frog (Rana temporaria) but Increases the Risk of Frost Exposure and Wetland Drying

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.3389/fevo.2021.645585 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Marjorie Bison ◽

Nigel G. Yoccoz ◽

Bradley Z. Carlson ◽

Geoffrey Klein ◽

Idaline Laigle ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rana Temporaria ◽

Larval Mortality ◽

High Elevation ◽

Common Frog ◽

Breeding Phenology ◽

Mountain Environments ◽

The Future ◽

Drying Up ◽

The Common

The alarming decline of amphibians around the world calls for complementary studies to better understand their responses to climate change. In mountain environments, water resources linked to snowmelt play a major role in allowing amphibians to complete tadpole metamorphosis. As snow cover duration has significantly decreased since the 1970s, amphibian populations could be strongly impacted by climate warming, and even more in high elevation sites where air temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than at low elevation. In this context, we investigated common frog (Rana temporaria) breeding phenology at two different elevations and explored the threats that this species faces in a climate change context. Our objectives were to understand how environmental variables influence the timing of breeding phenology of the common frog, and explore the threats that amphibians face in the context of climate change in mountain areas. To address these questions, we collected 11 years (2009–2019) of data on egg-spawning date, tadpole development stages, snowmelt date, air temperature, rainfall and drying up of wetland pools at ∼1,300 and ∼1,900 m a.s.l. in the French Alps. We found an advancement of the egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at low elevation but a delay at high elevations for both variables. Our results demonstrated a strong positive relationship between egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at both elevations. We also observed that the risk of frost exposure increased faster at high elevation as egg-spawning date advanced than at low elevation, and that drying up of wetland pools led to tadpole mortality at the high elevation site. Within the context of climate change, egg-spawning date is expected to happen earlier in the future and eggs and tadpoles of common frogs may face higher risk of frost exposure, while wetland drying may lead to higher larval mortality. However, population dynamics studies are needed to test these hypotheses and to assess impacts at the population level. Our results highlight climate-related threats to common frog populations in mountain environments, but additional research should be conducted to forecast how climate change may benefit or harm amphibian populations, and inform conservation and land management plans in the future.

Download Full-text

Trends in the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in the Republic of Korea

Journal of Ecology and Environment ◽

10.1186/s41610-021-00188-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 45 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sei-Woong Choi ◽

Woo-Seok Kong ◽

Ga-Young Hwang ◽

Kyung Ah Koo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Community Ecology ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽

High Elevation ◽

Plant Phenology ◽

Republic Of Korea ◽

Cold Adapted ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

The Republic

AbstractIn this review, we aimed to synthesize the current knowledge on the observed and projected effects of climate change on the ecosystems of Korea (i.e., the Republic of Korea (ROK) or South Korea), as well as the main causes of vulnerability and options for adaptation in these ecosystems based on a range of ecological and biogeographical data. To this end, we compiled a set of peer-reviewed papers published since 2014. We found that publication of climate-related studies on plants has decreased in the field of plant phenology and physiology, whereas such publication has rapidly increased in plant and animal community ecology, reflecting the range shifts and abundance change that are occurring under climate change. Plant phenology studies showed that climate change has increased growing seasons by advancing the timing of flowering and budburst while delaying the timing of leafing out. Community ecology studies indicated that the future ranges of cold-adapted plants and animals could shrink or shift toward northern and high-elevation areas, whereas the ranges of warm-adapted organisms could expand and/or shift toward the areas that the aforementioned cold-adapted biota previously occupied. This review provides useful information and new insights that will improve understanding of climate change effects on the ecosystems of Korea. Moreover, it will serve as a reference for policy-makers seeking to establish future sectoral adaptation options for protection against climate change.

Download Full-text

Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran

Journal of Ecology and Environment ◽

10.1186/s41610-021-00189-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 45 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ehsan Rahimi ◽

Shahindokht Barghjelveh ◽

Pinliang Dong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Quality ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Range Shift ◽

Potential Range ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Natural Ecosystem ◽

Quality Changes ◽

Wild Bees ◽

The Future

Abstract Background Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

Download Full-text

Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

10.1101/2020.08.25.265991 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Julius Maina Waititu ◽

Charles Ndegwa Mundia ◽

Arthur W Sichangi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

The Other ◽

Range Shift ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Invasive Plant Species ◽

Species Management ◽

Study Species

AbstractChanges in climatic conditions increases the risks of native and alien taxa expanding in geographical range and causing habitat transformations. The role of climate change in enhancing bio-invasions in local natural environments need to be assessed to guide on effective species management policy formulations. In this present study, we used species presence records, predictor variables and an ensemble of General Circulation Models data to predict suitable ecological niches for five of the selected invasive plant species within Nyeri County, Kenya. We predicted species distributions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. We analysed species distribution changes to identify invasive species requiring immediate management action. Our analysis indicated that three of the five study species were suitable in ~50% of the study area while the other two were suitable in ~30% under the current climate. Lantana camara L. and Solanum campylacanthum Hochst. ex A. Rich species would experience the largest range shift distance of ~6 – 10km and the largest habitat gain of ~12 – 33% in the future. Caesalpinia decapetala (Roth) Alston, Opuntia stricta (Haw.) Haw. and Senna didymobotrya (Fresen.) H.S. Irwin & Barneby species on the other hand would have a decline in habitat range under future climate change scenarios. Although, S. didymobotrya is considered a native species, it would lose half of its current suitable habitat in the future. Range shift analysis showed all study species would generally shift to the north west direction or towards the Aberdare ranges. From this study we conclude that invasive species management programs for smaller geographical areas ought to consider projecting species distributions under climate change scenarios to identify areas with high possible biodiversity changes. This would be important to conservationists when prioritizing management actions of invasive species in the region where data on invasive species is still limited.

Download Full-text

Induction of Conjugation and Zygospore Cell Wall Characteristics in the Alpine Spirogyra mirabilis (Zygnematophyceae, Charophyta): Advantage under Climate Change Scenarios?

Plants ◽

10.3390/plants10081740 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 1740

Author(s):

Charlotte Permann ◽

Klaus Herburger ◽

Martin Felhofer ◽

Notburga Gierlinger ◽

Louise A. Lewis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sexual Reproduction ◽

Cell Walls ◽

Extreme Environments ◽

Pond Water ◽

High Elevation ◽

Early Spring ◽

Spectral Signature ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Transmission Electron

Extreme environments, such as alpine habitats at high elevation, are increasingly exposed to man-made climate change. Zygnematophyceae thriving in these regions possess a special means of sexual reproduction, termed conjugation, leading to the formation of resistant zygospores. A field sample of Spirogyra with numerous conjugating stages was isolated and characterized by molecular phylogeny. We successfully induced sexual reproduction under laboratory conditions by a transfer to artificial pond water and increasing the light intensity to 184 µmol photons m−2 s−1. This, however was only possible in early spring, suggesting that the isolated cultures had an internal rhythm. The reproductive morphology was characterized by light- and transmission electron microscopy, and the latter allowed the detection of distinctly oriented microfibrils in the exo- and endospore, and an electron-dense mesospore. Glycan microarray profiling showed that Spirogyra cell walls are rich in major pectic and hemicellulosic polysaccharides, and immuno-fluorescence allowed the detection of arabinogalactan proteins (AGPs) and xyloglucan in the zygospore cell walls. Confocal RAMAN spectroscopy detected complex aromatic compounds, similar in their spectral signature to that of Lycopodium spores. These data support the idea that sexual reproduction in Zygnematophyceae, the sister lineage to land plants, might have played an important role in the process of terrestrialization.

Download Full-text

Afforestation with Pinus nigra Arn ssp salzmannii along an elevation gradient: controlling factors and implications for climate change adaptation

Trees ◽

10.1007/s00468-021-02184-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Manuel Esteban Lucas-Borja ◽

Xin Jing ◽

David Candel-Perez ◽

Misagh Parhizkar ◽

Francisco Rocha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Seedling Survival ◽

Elevation Gradient ◽

Pinus Nigra ◽

High Elevation ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Black Pine ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Seed Origin

Abstract Key Message The first bottleneck in Spanish black pine survival through afforestation is the lack of resistance to drought in their initial life stages. Abstract Spanish black pine (Pinus nigra Arn ssp. salzmannii) is the most widely distributed pine species in mountain areas of the Mediterranean Basin and is commonly used for afforestation in endangered and degraded areas. Despite its importance, little is known regarding the factors driving seedling survival for this species, which may hamper afforestation success in Mediterranean areas. In this study, we assessed the effects of seed origin and plantation site along a natural gradient with contrasting elevation and climatic conditions in a Mediterranean forest in Central-Eastern Spain. Our results showed: (1) higher seedling survival rates when seed origin differed from plantation site (25.3 ± 5.4%) compared to same origin and plantation site (5.3 ± 2.7%); (2) higher survival probability (~ 20%) for high and medium elevation seeds (colder and wetter locations) compared to the warmer and drier low elevation sites (15%); (3) higher seedling survival (~ 40%) at higher elevation sites compared to low-elevation sites (< 20%); and (4) increased hazard of seedling death with decreasing elevation of the plantation site. We also reported a complete mortality at the drier sites after the first summer following the plantation. Overall, the combination of seeds from medium elevation and high elevation plantation sites increased the survival of Spanish black pine. These results have direct implications for forest management of Spanish black pine in Mediterranean regions, particularly in current and future climate change scenarios.

Download Full-text

Genetic Diversity and Range Dynamics of Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060620 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 620 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Georgia Fassou ◽

Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis ◽

Gregoris Iatrou ◽

Panayiotis Trigas ◽

Vasileios Papasotiropoulos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Genetic Diversity ◽

Range Shift ◽

Mountain Forest ◽

Mountain Range ◽

Peripheral Populations ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Genetic Composition ◽

The Balkans ◽

Genetic Diversity And Structure

Research Highlights: The effects of climate change on habitat loss, range shift and/or genetic impoverishment of mid-elevation plants has received less attention compared to alpine species. Moreover, genetic diversity patterns of mountain forest herbaceous species have scarcely been explored in the Balkans. In this context, our study is the first that aims to examine Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus, a medicinal plant endemic to the southern part of the Balkan Peninsula. Background and Objectives: We compare its genetic diversity and structure along the continuous mountain range of western Greece with the topographically less structured mountains of eastern Greece, and predict its present and future habitat suitability, using several environmental variables. Materials and Methods: Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) markers were used to genotype 80 individuals from 8 populations, covering almost the species’ entire distribution range in Greece. We investigated the factors shaping its genetic composition and driving its current and future distribution. Results: High gene diversity (0.2239–0.3319), moderate population differentiation (0.0317–0.3316) and increased gene flow (Nm = 1.3098) was detected. According to any GCM/RCP/climate database combination, Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus is projected to lose a significant portion of its current distribution by 2070 and follow a trend towards genetic homogenization. Conclusions: Populations exhibit in terms of genetic structure a west–east genetic split, which becomes more evident southwards. This is mainly due to geographic/topographic factors and their interplay with Quaternary climatic oscillations, and to environmental constraints, which may have a negative impact on the species’ future distribution and genetic composition. Pindos mountain range seems to buffer climate change effects and will probably continue to host several populations. On the other hand, peripheral populations have lower genetic diversity compared to central populations, but still hold significant evolutionary potential due to the private alleles they maintain.

Download Full-text

River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 (6) ◽

pp. 3071-3086

Author(s):

Regula Muelchi ◽

Ole Rössler ◽

Jan Schwanbeck ◽

Rolf Weingartner ◽

Olivia Martius

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

High Elevation ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Signal ◽

Local Climate ◽

Runoff Changes ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Assessments of climate change impacts on runoff regimes are essential to climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. Changing runoff regimes and thus changing seasonal patterns of water availability strongly influence various economic sectors such as agriculture, energy production, and fishery and also affect river ecology. In this study, we use new transient hydrological scenarios driven by the most up-to-date local climate projections for Switzerland, the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios. These provide detailed information on changes in runoff regimes and their time of emergence for 93 rivers in Switzerland under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. These transient scenarios also allow changes to be framed as a function of global mean temperature. The new projections for seasonal runoff changes largely confirm the sign of changes in runoff from previous hydrological scenarios with increasing winter runoff and decreasing summer and autumn runoff. Spring runoff is projected to increase in high-elevation catchments and to decrease in lower-lying catchments. Despite the increases in winter and some increases in spring, the annual mean runoff is projected to decrease in most catchments. Compared to lower-lying catchments, runoff changes in high-elevation catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.) are larger in winter, spring, and summer due to the large influence of reduced snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt and glacier melt. The changes in runoff and the agreement between climate models on the sign of change both increase with increasing global mean temperatures and higher-emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation. The time of emergence is the time when the climate signal emerges significantly from natural variability. Under RCP8.5, times of emergence were found early, before the period 2036–2065, in winter and summer for catchments with mean altitudes above 1500 m a.s.l. Significant changes in catchments below 1500 m a.s.l. emerge later in the century. Not all catchments show significant changes in the distribution of seasonal means; thus, no time of emergence could be determined in these catchments. Furthermore, the significant changes of seasonal mean runoff are not persistent over time in some catchments due to nonlinear changes in runoff.

Download Full-text