scholarly journals Heat and Drought Stress Advanced Global Wheat Harvest Timing from 1981–2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilong Ren ◽  
Qiming Qin ◽  
Huazhong Ren ◽  
Juan Sui ◽  
Yao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Harvest Timing

Studying wheat phenology can greatly enhance our understanding of how wheat growth responds to climate change, and guide us to reasonably confront its influence. However, comprehensive global-scale wheat phenology–climate analysis is still lacking. In this study, we extracted the wheat harvest date (WHD) from 1981–2014 from satellite data using threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. Then, we analyzed the effects of heat and drought stress on WHD based on gridded daily temperature and monthly drought data (the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) over global wheat-growing areas. The results show that WHD was generally delayed from the low to mid latitudes. With respect to variation trends, we detected a significant advancement of WHD in 32.1% of the world’s wheat-growing areas since 1981, with an average changing rate of −0.25 days/yr. A significant negative correlation was identified between WHD and the prior three months’ normal-growing-degree-days across 50.4% of the study region, which implies that greater preseason effective temperature accumulation may cause WHD to occur earlier. Meanwhile, WHD was also found to be significantly and negatively correlated with the prior three months’ extreme-growing-degree-days across only 9.6% of the study region (mainly located in northern South Asia and north Central-West Asia). The effects of extreme heat stress were weaker than those of normal thermal conditions. When extreme drought (measured by PDSI/SPEI) occurred in the current month, in the month prior to WHD, and in the second month prior to WHD, it forced WHD to advance by about 9.0/8.1 days, 13.8/12.2 days, and 10.8/5.3 days compared to normal conditions, respectively. In conclusion, we highlight the effects that heat and drought stress have on advancing wheat harvest timing, which should be a research focus under future climate change.

scholarly journals Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Costa ◽  
Helder Fraga ◽  
André Fonseca ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Maria C. Val ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Wine Region

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

Weather effects on maize yields in northern China

2013 ◽  
Vol 152 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. SUN ◽  
G. C. VAN KOOTEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Maize Yields

SUMMARYIn the present study, the effect of weather on maize yields in northern China was examined using data from 10 districts in Inner Mongolia and two in Shaanxi province. A regression model with a flexible functional form was specified on the basis of agronomic considerations. Explanatory variables included in the model were seasonal growing degree days, precipitation, technological change (e.g. adoption of new crop varieties, improved equipment, better management, etc.) and dummy variables to account for regional fixed effects. Results indicated that a fractional polynomial model in growing degree days could explain variability in maize yields better than a linear or quadratic model. Growing degree days, precipitation in July, August and September, and technological changes were important determinants of maize yields. The results could be used to predict potential maize yields under future climate change scenarios, to construct financial weather products and for policy makers to incentivize technological changes and construction of infrastructure (e.g. irrigation works) that facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

scholarly journals Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Időjárás ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Janković ◽  
Zorica Podraščanin ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjevic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Residential Heating ◽  
Cooling Degree Days

Studies on Determination of Critical Growing Degree Days, Base Temperature (Tb) and Response of Temperature Variations on Flowering and Yield per se in Cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.]

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venkatesh Bondade ◽  
Sanjeev K Deshpande
Keyword(s):  
Dry Matter ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Base Temperature ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Days To Flowering ◽  
Matter Production ◽  
Flowering Initiation

Growing degree days (GDD) or heat units accumulation is the major factor that affects the dry matter production in the plants. In the present investigation eleven genotypes were used to screen for temperature insensitivity through staggered plantings across the seasons in a year. Days to flowering initiation was recorded and base temperature (Tb) was determined using mean daily air temperature (MAT). GDD of individual genotypes was estimated using base temperatures of particular genotypes. It was observed that the GDD, days to flowering initiation and yield were exhibited high variation across the seasons, the flowering time from days to planting (FTDAP) registered significant negative correlation with GDD and MAT and positively correlated with yield. Whereas GDD is positively correlated with MAT and negatively correlated with yield. Here three genotypes namely, IC202926, IC198326 and IC257428 were identified as temperature insensitive genotypes as their performances were comparable across the seasons without much fluctuations.

Potential impacts of climate change on corn, soybeans and barley yields in Atlantic Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bootsma ◽  
S. Gameda ◽  
D. W. McKenney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Heat Units ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, relationships between agroclimatic indices and average yields of grain corn (Zea mays L.), soybeans (Glycine max L. Merr.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in field trials conducted in eastern Canada are explored and then used to estimate potential impacts of climate change scenarios on anticipated average yields and total production of these commodities for the Atlantic region for the 2040 to 2069 period. Average yields of grain corn and soybeans were highly correlated (R2 = 0.86 and 0.74, respectively) with average available crop heat units (CHU), with yields increasing by about 0.006 t ha-1 CHU-1 for corn and 0.0013 t ha-1 CHU-1 for soybeans. The explained variance was not improved significantly when water deficit (DEFICIT) was included as an independent variable in regression. Correlations between average yields of barley and effective growing degree-days (EGDD) were low (R2 ≤ 0.26) and negative, i.e., there was a tendency for slightly lower yields at higher EGDD values. Including a second-order polynomial for DEFICIT in the regression increased the R2 to ≥ 0.58, indicating a tendency for lower barley yields in areas with high water deficits and with water surpluses. Based on a range of available heat units projected by multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, average yields achievable in field trials could increase by about 2.6 to 7.5 t ha-1 (40 to 115%) for corn, and by 0.6 to 1.5 t ha-1 (21 to 50%) for soybeans by 2040 to 2069, not including the direct effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, advances in plant breeding and crop production practices or changes in impacts of weeds, insects and diseases on yield. Anticipated reductions in barley yields are likely to be more than offset by the direct effect of increased CO2 concentrations. As a result of changes in potential yields, there will likely be significant shifts away from production of barley to high-energy and high-protein crops (corn and soybeans) that are better adapted to the warmer climate. However, barley and other small grain cereals will likely remain as important crops as they are very suited for rotation with potatoes. There is a need to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of these possible shifts in crop production, particularly with respect to soil erosion in the region. Key words: Crop heat units, growing degree-days, water deficits, crop yields, climate change, Atlantic region

scholarly journals GIS-Based Land Suitability and Crop Vulnerability Assessment under Climate Change in Chtouka Ait Baha, Morocco

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1167
Author(s):  
Marieme Seif-Ennasr ◽  
Lhoussaine Bouchaou ◽  
Zine El Abidine El Morjani ◽  
Abdelaziz Hirich ◽  
El Hassane Beraaouz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Vegetable Crops ◽  
Degree Days

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the economic development in Morocco, contributing to 14% of the national gross domestic product. However, this sector is facing various challenges, including climate change. This study aims to assess relevant indicators that may affect land suitability, water demand, and crop growing season duration under climate change. Further, it may be used as a decision support tool in the Chtouka area known for its irrigated agriculture. The approach proposed, the spatial distribution of land based on suitability, is founded on the multiple-criteria decision-making method of four parameters; soil texture, temperature, land use, and slope. The duration of the length of crop season was simulated using the concept of growing degree days. The projection of land suitability for 2031–2050 indicated an important decrease of 12.11% of “highly suitable” agricultural land under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and a significant increase of 4.68% of “highly unsuitable” land, according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to the baseline (1985–2005). The projected growing degree days in 2031–2050 showed a strong shortening in the growing period length compared to the baseline 1985–2006, mainly under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, with a reduction from 8% to 21% depending on crops. Moreover, crop water productivity indicated that berries were over 50% less water productive than other vegetable crops for almost the same amount of applied irrigation water. These findings highlight the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change, which requires important political and management efforts to sustain agricultural activity.

scholarly journals Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byung Sik Kim ◽  
In Gi Chang ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Hae Jin Han
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
The Right

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

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