scholarly journals Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Ludolf Merkens ◽  
Athanasios Vafeidis
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
Administrative Unit ◽  
Urban Extent ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Uniform Population

Broad-scale impact and vulnerability assessments are essential for informing decisions on long-term adaptation planning at the national, regional, or global level. These assessments rely on population data for quantifying exposure to different types of hazards. Existing population datasets covering the entire globe at resolutions of 2.5 degrees to 30 arc-seconds are based on information available at administrative-unit level and implicitly assume uniform population densities within these units. This assumption can lead to errors in impact assessments and particularly in coastal areas that are densely populated. This study proposes and compares simple approaches to regionalize population within administrative units in the German Baltic Sea region using solely information on urban extent from the Global Urban Footprint (GUF). Our results show that approaches using GUF can reduce the error in predicting population totals of municipalities by factor 2 to 3. When assessing exposed population, we find that the assumption of uniform population densities leads to an overestimation of 120% to 140%. Using GUF to regionalise population within administrative units reduce these errors by up to 50%. Our results suggest that the proposed simple modeling approaches can result in significantly improved distribution of population within administrative units and substantially improve the results of exposure analyses.

scholarly journals Estimated Number of Short-Stay Service Recipients in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, from 2020 to 2045: Estimation by Machine Learning and Review of Changing Trend by Cartogram

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junko Ouchi ◽  
Kanetoshi Hattori
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Short Stay ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Administrative Unit ◽  
Future Care ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Administrative Units

Abstract Background: The present study aimed to estimate the numbers of short-stay service recipients in all administrative units in Hokkaido from 2020 to 2045 with the machine learning approaches and reviewed the changing trends of spatial distributions of the service recipients with cartograms.Methods: A machine learning approach was used for the estimation. To develop the model to estimate, population data in Japan from 2015 to 2017 were used as input signals, whereas data on the numbers of short-stay service recipients at each level of needs for long-term care (levels 1–5) from 2015 to 2017 were used as a supervisory signal. Three models were developed to avoid problems of repeatability. Then, data of the projected population in Hokkaido every 5 years from 2020 to 2045 were fed into each model to estimate the numbers of the service recipients for the 188 administrative units of Hokkaido. The medians of the estimations from the models were considered as the final results; the estimates for 188 administrative units were presented with continuous area cartograms on the map of Hokkaido.Results: The developed models predicted that the number of the service recipients in Hokkaido would peak at 18,016 in 2035 and the number of people at level 3 in particular would increase. The cartograms for levels 2 and 3 from 2020 to 2030 and level 3 for 2035 were heavily distorted in the several populated areas in Hokkaido, indicating that the majority of the service recipients would be concentrated in those populated areas. Conclusions: Machine learning approaches could provide estimates of future care demands for each administrative unit in a prefecture in Japan based on past population and care demand data. Results from the present study can be useful when effective allocations of human resources for nursing care in the region are discussed.

scholarly journals Population patterns in World’s administrative units

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 170281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Fontanelli ◽  
Pedro Miramontes ◽  
Germinal Cocho ◽  
Wentian Li
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Data ◽  
One Dimension ◽  
City Population ◽  
Administrative Unit ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Extended Discussion ◽  
Generalized Beta Distribution

Whereas there has been an extended discussion concerning city population distribution, little has been said about that of administrative divisions. In this work, we investigate the population distribution of second-level administrative units of 150 countries and territories and propose the discrete generalized beta distribution (DGBD) rank-size function to describe the data. After testing the balance between the goodness of fit and number of parameters of this function compared with a power law, which is the most common model for city population, the DGBD is a good statistical model for 96% of our datasets and preferred over a power law in almost every case. Moreover, the DGBD is preferred over a power law for fitting country population data, which can be seen as the zeroth-level administrative unit. We present a computational toy model to simulate the formation of administrative divisions in one dimension and give numerical evidence that the DGBD arises from a particular case of this model. This model, along with the fitting of the DGBD, proves adequate in reproducing and describing local unit evolution and its effect on the population distribution.

scholarly journals Successful Implementation of Newborn Screening for Hemoglobin Disorders in the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Carmencita D. Padilla ◽  
Bradford L. Therrell ◽  
Maria Melanie Liberty B. Alcausin ◽  
Reynaldo C. de Castro ◽  
Maria Beatriz P. Gepte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Newborn Screening ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Population Data ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Clinical Experiences ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Confirmatory Testing ◽  
Newborn Bloodspot Screening

The Philippine newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) program began in 1996 with 24 hospitals and was formalized by legislation in 2004. The NBS panel was recently expanded to include a number of additional hereditary congenital conditions. Expertise and experiences from other NBS programs already screening for hemoglobinopathies were essential to its successful integration into the ongoing dried bloodspot NBS program in the Philippines. Building on clinical experiences and population data from Filipinos born in California, USA, hemoglobinopathies (including thalassemias) were selected for inclusion in the expanded screening panel. Hemoglobinopathy NBS, using high performance liquid chromatography, was implemented in a stepwise manner into the seven regional NBS screening laboratories. A central university laboratory provides confirmatory testing using both capillary electrophoresis and molecular methodologies. NBS results indicating carriers are followed up with educational fact sheets, while results of presumptive disease are referred for confirmatory testing and follow-up with a hematologist. Long-term care is provided through newborn screening continuity clinics across the country. Hemoglobinopathy NBS is now included in the national insurance package and screening uptake continues to increase nationally, exceeding 90% of all newborns in 7400+ hospitals and birthing centers nationwide prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Long-term effects of fine particulate matter exposure on the progression of arterial stiffness

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dianqin Sun ◽  
Yue Liu ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Zhiyuan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arterial Stiffness ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Ankle Brachial Index ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Average Concentration ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Stiffness Index ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Annual Average

Abstract Background Prior studies have investigated the association of PM2.5 exposure with arterial stiffness measured by ankle-brachial index (ABI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), of which conclusions are inconsistent. Moreover, limited evidence is available on the contributory role of PM2.5 exposure on the arterial stiffness index. Methods We used the population data from the Beijing Health Management Cohort and conducted a longitudinal analysis. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 for 35 air pollutant monitoring sites in Beijing from 2014 to 2018 was used to estimate individual exposure by different interpolation methods. Multivariate logistic regression and linear regression were conducted to assess the association of annual average PM2.5 concentration with the incidence of higher baPWV, the progression of ABI, and baPWV, respectively. Results The association between PM2.5 exposure and incidence of higher baPWV was not significant (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.82–1.50, P = 0.497). There was − 0.16% (95% CI: − 0.43-0.11%) decrease in ABI annually and 1.04% (95% CI: 0.72–1.37%) increase in baPWV annually with each increment of 10 μg/m3 average PM2.5 concentration. Conclusions Long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with the progression of arterial stiffness in Beijing. This study suggests that improvement of air quality may help to prevent arterial stiffness.

Future Costs of Long-term Care in Japan and Sweden

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mårten Lagergren ◽  
Noriko Kurube ◽  
Yasuhiko Saito
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Term Care ◽  
And Gender

Population aging is expected to increase long-term care (LTC) costs in both Japan and Sweden. This study projected LTC costs for 2010 through 2040 for different assumptions of population change, LTC need by age group and gender, and LTC provided per level of need and cost in Japan and Sweden. Population data were taken from the official national forecasts. Needs projections were based on epidemiological data from the Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions. Data on LTC provision by need and cost were taken from nine Japanese municipalities collected by assessments in the LTC insurance system and from surveys in eight Swedish municipalities. Total initial costs were calibrated to official national figures. Two projections based on two different scenarios were made for each country from 2010 to 2040. The first scenario assumed a constant level of need for LTC by age group and gender, and the other assumed a continuation of the present LTC need trends until 2025. For Japan, this resulted in a projected cost increase of 93% for the one and 80% for the other; for Sweden it was 52% and 24%, respectively. The results reflected differences in population aging and health development.

LONG TERM STUDY OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF AERIAL APPLICATION OF BACILLUS THURINGIENSIS – ACEPHATE COMBINATIONS AGAINST THE SPRUCE BUDWORM, CHORISTONEURA FUMIFERANA (LEPIDOPTERA: TORTRICIDAE)

1977 ◽  
Vol 109 (9) ◽  
pp. 1239-1248 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. N. Morris
Keyword(s):  
Bacillus Thuringiensis ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Larval Mortality ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Long Term Study

AbstractBacillus thuringiensis (Dipel® 36B) mixed with a sublethal concentration of acephate (Orthene®) (O, S-dimethyl acetylphosphoramidothioate), an organophosphorous insecticide, was applied at 2.35–14 l./ha to white spruce (Picea glauca) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea) trees infested with spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.). The treatment rate was 20 Billion International Units of B. thuringiensis (B.t.) activity with or without 42 g of active ingredient of acephate/ha.The ground deposit of the standard Dipel wettable powder formulation was 12% of emitted volume compared with 21–32% for the Dipel 36B flowable. The viability of B.t. spores was drastically reduced after 1 day of weathering but a high level of biological activity by the spore–crystal complex persisted for up to 20 days post-spray due probably to crystal activity.The addition of about 10% of the recommended operational rate of acephate to the B.t. suspension increased larval mortality by 34% when applied at 4.7 l./ha. Reductions in budworm populations were 97–99% in B.t. + acephate plots and 86–90% in B.t. alone plots.Plots with moderate budworm densities of up to 27 larvae/100 buds on white spruce and 36/100 on balsam fir were satisfactorily protected from excessive defoliation in the year of spray by B.t. with or without acephate. Plots with higher population densities were not satisfactorily protected based on the branch sample examination but aerial color photographs indicated good protection to the top third of the trees. Population declines were greater and defoliation and oviposition were lower in the treated plots than in the untreated checks 1 year later without further treatment. Two years later the larval population densities in all plots were low but the density was twice as high in the untreated check as in the treated plots, indicating long term suppression by the treatments. Defoliation was negligible in all plots.The treatments had no deleterious effect on spruce budworm parasitism. The data indicate that the integrated approach using Bacillus thuringiensis – chemical pesticide combinations is a viable alternative to the use of chemical pesticides alone in spruce budworm control. Large scale testing is now warranted.

Population Densities Allowed Around Dutch SEVESO Establishments

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. H. Laheij ◽  
B. J. M. Ale ◽  
J. G. Post
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Planning Policy ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
Dangerous Substances ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Uniform Population

Abstract In the Netherlands, the individual risk and societal risk are used in efforts to reduce the number of people exposed to the effect of an accident at an establishment with dangerous substances. To facilitate the societal risk planning policy an investigation was carried out for the Dutch SEVESO establishments to investigate the possibility of determining a generic uniform population density for the zone between the individual risk contours of 10−5 and 10−6 per year. The indicative limit for the societal risk at this density was not to be exceeded. Also there was to be enough space left for a significantly higher population density outside the individual risk contour of 10−6 per year. The RORISC methodology and the actual data for the 124 Dutch SEVESO establishments were used to determine the generic uniform population density. Based on the data available it can be concluded that the maximum allowed uniform population density in the zone between the individual risk contours of 10−5 and 10−6 per year is lower than one person per hectare. At this density there is no space left for a higher population density outside the individual risk contour of 10−6 per year. For uniform population densities the relative contribution to the societal risk has been found significant up to the individual risk contour of 10−7 per year.

Sampling estuarine copepods at different scales and resolutions: a study in Rio de la Plata

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 1059-1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sourav Paul ◽  
Danilo Calliari
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Rio De La Plata ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Río De La Plata ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Resource Limitations ◽  
Paracalanus Parvus

AbstractIn the Rio de la Plata salinity, temperature, chlorophyll a (chl a), and densities (ind. m−3) of the copepods Acartia tonsa and Paracalanus parvus were measured from January to November in 2003 by following a nested weekly and monthly design. Such sampling yielded two separate datasets: (i) Yearly Dataset (YD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per month for 11 consecutive months, and (ii) Seasonal Weekly Datasets (SWD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per week of any four consecutive weeks within each season. YD was assumed as a medium-term low-resolution (MTLR) dataset, and SWD as a short-term high-resolution (STHR) dataset. The hypothesis was, the SWD would always capture (shorter scales generally captures more noise in data) more detail variability of copepod populations (quantified through the regression relationships between temporal changes of salinity, temperature, chl a and copepod densities) than the YD. Analysis of both YD and SWD found that A. tonsa density was neither affected by seasonal cycles, nor temporal variability of salinity, temperature and chl a. Thus, compared to STHR sampling, MTLR sampling did not yield any further information of the variability of population densities of the perennial copepod A. tonsa. Analysis of SWD found that during summer and autumn the population densities of P. parvus had a significant positive relationship to salinity but their density was limited by higher chl a concentration; analysis of YD could not yield such detailed ecological information. That hints the effectiveness of STHR sampling over MTLR sampling in capturing details of the variability of population densities of a seasonal copepod species. Considering the institutional resource limitations (e.g. lack of long-term funding, manpower and infrastructure) and the present hypothesis under consideration, the authors suggest that a STHR sampling may provide useful complementary information to interpret results of longer-term natural changes occurring in estuaries.

scholarly journals Summer Heat Risk Index: how to integrate recent climatic changes and soil consumption component

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso Crisci ◽  
Luca Congedo ◽  
Marco Morabito ◽  
Michele Munafò
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Risk Class ◽  
Environmental Threats ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Administrative Unit ◽  
Italian National Institute ◽  
Soil Consumption

Face to the urban resiliency two major environmental threats are widely recognized: the increasing summer air temperatures and the soil consumption that affects a large number of city in Italy. The work have the goal to present preliminary the actual Heat Summer Risk defined by using Crichton's Risk Triangle (Crichton, 1999) on the second Italian level of administration (ADM2 - Province). For each administrative unit we have considered as hazard layer the most recent trend of summer air temperature assessed (1980-2014); the exposure layer is individuated by the amount of population living in each province and finally as vulnerable layer the mean degree of soil consumption expressed in percentage was considered. Thanks to these information Crichton's methodology are able to give a quantitative risk value index further classified in five risk class. Data sources was provided by several authoritative institutions : (i) ISPRA ( Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) that provide data about density of soil consumption for 2015 as reported in the Soil Consumption Report 2016; (ii) ECAD (European Climate Assessment \& Dataset) that gives detailed historical daily climatic layers (E-OBS 1950-2015 v 13.0); (iii) ISTAT ( Italian National Institute of Statistics) that provides the last updates on Italian population data (2016). The results was mapped and presented. All computations was carried out in R-STAT environment by using different library available for Spatial and Trend Analysis. Data and code are released in public repository.

scholarly journals The relationship between Le Van Duyet and Minh Mang in the first 30 years of the power concentration process in the Nguyen Dynasty

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Thuan Tran ◽  
Toan Phuc Vo
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Great Power ◽  
National Defense ◽  
The North ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Administrative Unit ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
North And South

Upon founding the dynasty, Gia Long upheld a politico-military on a vast territory with two administrative units of power ruling over the two areas now named the North and South of Vietnam respectively. Gia Dinh Citadel – the administrative unit ruling the South of Vietnam with a very important role in economy, national defense, and diplomacy – was headed by Le Van Duyet. In the first 30 years of the Nguyen Dynasty, along with the transfer of power from the Gia Long to the Minh Mang was the position assertion of Le Van Duyet in Gia Dinh Citadel, making him one of the most powerful figures. However, the transfer of the throne also marked the concentration of power into the hands of the central government ruled by the emperor; thus, leading to the elimination of administrative units upholding great power such as Gia Dinh Citadel. This process took place in a quite complex manner due to intrinsic problems revolving around the relationship between Minh Mang and Le Van Duyet – the relationship between a king and a high-ranking mandarin with great power. The paper describes the maneuver of political relations between the two characters in the 30 years of power concentration from a fresher point of view.

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