Population patterns in World’s administrative units

Whereas there has been an extended discussion concerning city population distribution, little has been said about that of administrative divisions. In this work, we investigate the population distribution of second-level administrative units of 150 countries and territories and propose the discrete generalized beta distribution (DGBD) rank-size function to describe the data. After testing the balance between the goodness of fit and number of parameters of this function compared with a power law, which is the most common model for city population, the DGBD is a good statistical model for 96% of our datasets and preferred over a power law in almost every case. Moreover, the DGBD is preferred over a power law for fitting country population data, which can be seen as the zeroth-level administrative unit. We present a computational toy model to simulate the formation of administrative divisions in one dimension and give numerical evidence that the DGBD arises from a particular case of this model. This model, along with the fitting of the DGBD, proves adequate in reproducing and describing local unit evolution and its effect on the population distribution.

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Estimated Number of Short-Stay Service Recipients in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, from 2020 to 2045: Estimation by Machine Learning and Review of Changing Trend by Cartogram

10.21203/rs.3.rs-111572/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Junko Ouchi ◽

Kanetoshi Hattori

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Population Data ◽

Learning Approaches ◽

Short Stay ◽

Term Care ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Future Care ◽

Level 3 ◽

Changing Trend ◽

Administrative Units

Abstract Background: The present study aimed to estimate the numbers of short-stay service recipients in all administrative units in Hokkaido from 2020 to 2045 with the machine learning approaches and reviewed the changing trends of spatial distributions of the service recipients with cartograms.Methods: A machine learning approach was used for the estimation. To develop the model to estimate, population data in Japan from 2015 to 2017 were used as input signals, whereas data on the numbers of short-stay service recipients at each level of needs for long-term care (levels 1–5) from 2015 to 2017 were used as a supervisory signal. Three models were developed to avoid problems of repeatability. Then, data of the projected population in Hokkaido every 5 years from 2020 to 2045 were fed into each model to estimate the numbers of the service recipients for the 188 administrative units of Hokkaido. The medians of the estimations from the models were considered as the final results; the estimates for 188 administrative units were presented with continuous area cartograms on the map of Hokkaido.Results: The developed models predicted that the number of the service recipients in Hokkaido would peak at 18,016 in 2035 and the number of people at level 3 in particular would increase. The cartograms for levels 2 and 3 from 2020 to 2030 and level 3 for 2035 were heavily distorted in the several populated areas in Hokkaido, indicating that the majority of the service recipients would be concentrated in those populated areas. Conclusions: Machine learning approaches could provide estimates of future care demands for each administrative unit in a prefecture in Japan based on past population and care demand data. Results from the present study can be useful when effective allocations of human resources for nursing care in the region are discussed.

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Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10093170 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 3170 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jan-Ludolf Merkens ◽

Athanasios Vafeidis

Keyword(s):

Population Data ◽

Population Densities ◽

Exposed Population ◽

Vulnerability Assessments ◽

Baltic Sea Region ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Urban Extent ◽

Administrative Units ◽

Uniform Population

Broad-scale impact and vulnerability assessments are essential for informing decisions on long-term adaptation planning at the national, regional, or global level. These assessments rely on population data for quantifying exposure to different types of hazards. Existing population datasets covering the entire globe at resolutions of 2.5 degrees to 30 arc-seconds are based on information available at administrative-unit level and implicitly assume uniform population densities within these units. This assumption can lead to errors in impact assessments and particularly in coastal areas that are densely populated. This study proposes and compares simple approaches to regionalize population within administrative units in the German Baltic Sea region using solely information on urban extent from the Global Urban Footprint (GUF). Our results show that approaches using GUF can reduce the error in predicting population totals of municipalities by factor 2 to 3. When assessing exposed population, we find that the assumption of uniform population densities leads to an overestimation of 120% to 140%. Using GUF to regionalise population within administrative units reduce these errors by up to 50%. Our results suggest that the proposed simple modeling approaches can result in significantly improved distribution of population within administrative units and substantially improve the results of exposure analyses.

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Theoretical basis for reasonable population distribution in Tho Chu archipelago

Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Biển ◽

10.15625/1859-3097/19/3/14056 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 349-361

Author(s):

Le Van Huong ◽

Nguyen Ngoc Khanh ◽

Nguyen Thu Nhung ◽

Phi Thi Thu Hoang ◽

Pham Hoang Hai

Keyword(s):

Population Distribution ◽

Life Quality ◽

Base Point ◽

District Level ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

United Nations Convention ◽

Administrative Units ◽

Sea Area

Tho Chu archipelago is one of administrative units of Kien Giang province, Hon Nhan- one of its islands - is selected to become A1 base point of baseline for Vietnam territorial waters. If Tho Chau district is established, it will contribute to identifying sovereignty of Vietnam Southwest sea area following the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, creating favourable conditions for islands’ socio-economic development, developing culture, enhancing effects of administration work and life quality of population in this island, firmly protecting sea border, securing island and sea sovereignty… However, the establishment of Tho Chu district appears in the context of streamlining administrative apparatus and limitation of capital for infrastructure construction in district level. This article focuses on the analysis of some factors affecting a reasonable population distribution in order to meet the requirement of building the Tho Chu into a district-level administrative unit in Kien Giang province.

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Power law model. Goodness-of-fit tests and estimation methods

10.3403/30249080 ◽

2013 ◽

Keyword(s):

Power Law ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Power Law Model ◽

Goodness Of Fit Tests

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Population cluster data to assess the urban-rural split and electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-021-00897-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Babak Khavari ◽

Alexandros Korkovelos ◽

Andreas Sahlberg ◽

Mark Howells ◽

Francesco Fuso Nerini

Keyword(s):

World Bank ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Population Data ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Demographic And Health Surveys ◽

Middle Income ◽

Disease Response ◽

The World Bank ◽

The World ◽

Urban Rural

AbstractHuman settlements are usually nucleated around manmade central points or distinctive natural features, forming clusters that vary in shape and size. However, population distribution in geo-sciences is often represented in the form of pixelated rasters. Rasters indicate population density at predefined spatial resolutions, but are unable to capture the actual shape or size of settlements. Here we suggest a methodology that translates high-resolution raster population data into vector-based population clusters. We use open-source data and develop an open-access algorithm tailored for low and middle-income countries with data scarcity issues. Each cluster includes unique characteristics indicating population, electrification rate and urban-rural categorization. Results are validated against national electrification rates provided by the World Bank and data from selected Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We find that our modeled national electrification rates are consistent with the rates reported by the World Bank, while the modeled urban/rural classification has 88% accuracy. By delineating settlements, this dataset can complement existing raster population data in studies such as energy planning, urban planning and disease response.

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Summer Heat Risk Index: how to integrate recent climatic changes and soil consumption component

10.7287/peerj.preprints.2234 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Alfonso Crisci ◽

Luca Congedo ◽

Marco Morabito ◽

Michele Munafò

Keyword(s):

Risk Index ◽

Population Data ◽

Analysis Data ◽

Italian Population ◽

Risk Class ◽

Environmental Threats ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Italian National Institute ◽

Soil Consumption

Face to the urban resiliency two major environmental threats are widely recognized: the increasing summer air temperatures and the soil consumption that affects a large number of city in Italy. The work have the goal to present preliminary the actual Heat Summer Risk defined by using Crichton's Risk Triangle (Crichton, 1999) on the second Italian level of administration (ADM2 - Province). For each administrative unit we have considered as hazard layer the most recent trend of summer air temperature assessed (1980-2014); the exposure layer is individuated by the amount of population living in each province and finally as vulnerable layer the mean degree of soil consumption expressed in percentage was considered. Thanks to these information Crichton's methodology are able to give a quantitative risk value index further classified in five risk class. Data sources was provided by several authoritative institutions : (i) ISPRA ( Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) that provide data about density of soil consumption for 2015 as reported in the Soil Consumption Report 2016; (ii) ECAD (European Climate Assessment \& Dataset) that gives detailed historical daily climatic layers (E-OBS 1950-2015 v 13.0); (iii) ISTAT ( Italian National Institute of Statistics) that provides the last updates on Italian population data (2016). The results was mapped and presented. All computations was carried out in R-STAT environment by using different library available for Spatial and Trend Analysis. Data and code are released in public repository.

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The relationship between Le Van Duyet and Minh Mang in the first 30 years of the power concentration process in the Nguyen Dynasty

Science and Technology Development Journal ◽

10.32508/stdj.v19i2.745 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 5-18

Author(s):

Thuan Tran ◽

Toan Phuc Vo

Keyword(s):

Central Government ◽

Point Of View ◽

Great Power ◽

National Defense ◽

The North ◽

Political Relations ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Administrative Units ◽

The Relationship ◽

North And South

Upon founding the dynasty, Gia Long upheld a politico-military on a vast territory with two administrative units of power ruling over the two areas now named the North and South of Vietnam respectively. Gia Dinh Citadel – the administrative unit ruling the South of Vietnam with a very important role in economy, national defense, and diplomacy – was headed by Le Van Duyet. In the first 30 years of the Nguyen Dynasty, along with the transfer of power from the Gia Long to the Minh Mang was the position assertion of Le Van Duyet in Gia Dinh Citadel, making him one of the most powerful figures. However, the transfer of the throne also marked the concentration of power into the hands of the central government ruled by the emperor; thus, leading to the elimination of administrative units upholding great power such as Gia Dinh Citadel. This process took place in a quite complex manner due to intrinsic problems revolving around the relationship between Minh Mang and Le Van Duyet – the relationship between a king and a high-ranking mandarin with great power. The paper describes the maneuver of political relations between the two characters in the 30 years of power concentration from a fresher point of view.

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Executive–Legislative Relations, Party Defections, and Lower Level Administrative Unit Proliferation: Evidence From Kenya

Comparative Political Studies ◽

10.1177/0010414016679179 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 50 (12) ◽

pp. 1595-1631 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Mai Hassan ◽

Ryan Sheely

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Administrative Reform ◽

The State ◽

Executive Power ◽

The Past ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Legislative Support ◽

The Creation ◽

Administrative Units

Over the past 25 years, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of subnational administrative units within developing countries. Existing literature argues that presidents create new units to deliver patronage to citizens. But proliferation at lower tiers of the state, that are too administratively distant from the president to credibly serve as patronage, does not follow this logic. We build from the premise that the creation of a new lower level unit comes with the appointment of a local administrator who develops a neopatrimonial relationship with the legislator whose constituency subsumes their jurisdiction. Presidents leverage this neopatrimonial relationship and create lower level units for copartisan legislators to ensure legislative support and prevent party defections. We find evidence supporting this argument using new data from Kenya. These findings illuminate how leaders can use administrative reform to undermine legislative checks against executive power.

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ETHNIC AND REGIONAL PARTIES IN THE CEE COUNTRIES: SPECIAL FEATURES AND TRAJECTORIES OF DEVELOPMENT

Вестник Пермского университета Политология ◽

10.17072/2218-1067-2020-3-20-34 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (3) ◽

pp. 20-34

Author(s):

Petr Panov ◽

Keyword(s):

Ethnic Minority ◽

Regional Parties ◽

Ethnic Parties ◽

Administrative Unit ◽

Important Player ◽

Multi Level ◽

Administrative Units ◽

The Stability ◽

Main Factor ◽

Level Government

In recent decades, in the context of the transformation of national states and the development of multi-level government, there has been an increase in ethnic/regional political parties in Europe. Ethno-regionalism in the CEE countries has a specific basis related to their imperial past, but despite the similarities, each country has special features concerning the strength of parties, their demands and development. The analysis of the most significant ethnic/regional parties in the CEE countries shows that the main factor affecting their strength is the ethnic structure of the population, especially if it is combined with intense ethnic identity, and the ethnic minority has a historical experience of autonomy/statehood. A favorable combination of these factors results in the stability of the electoral strength of ethnic parties, which makes them an important player in the political arena. Concerning the demands of ethnic parties, it has been confirmed that the localization of the respective ethnic minority has a significant effect. If it is in one administrative unit, it stimulates regionalist aspirations; if it dwells in some compactly located administrative units, an ethnic party usually promotes cross-regionalist demands to create a new region. Under conditions of dispersed localization of a minority, an ethnic party does not put forward regionalist claims.

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