scholarly journals Latent Errors and Visible Earned Value: How the Evolutionary Model Integrates Earned Value Metrics with Project System Dynamics

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
John M. Nevison ◽  
Karim J. Chichakly
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Systems Dynamics ◽  
Typical Pattern ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Signature Pattern ◽  
Project Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Better Than

A project model is presented that weaves together ideas from earned value project management and systems dynamics. It is able to adjust to increasingly unhealthy actual project behaviors in ways that preserve the signature pattern of the staffing histograms observed in the real world and provide a tool for managers to correct projects that are not meeting the plan. Starting from the planned staffing histogram and the project performance baseline, the model captures the delay and cost of experience dilution, includes the unplanned-for effort that is revealed in the typical pattern of the Cost Performance Index, assesses progress using the actual cost to date and the earned value to date, and adjusts staffing, scope, or both, to complete the project on schedule. A new method of approximating work remaining, called project-to-date, is shown to track the planned staffing histogram better than the commonly used fraction-complete method.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KETERLAMBATAN PROYEK SERTA DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP BIAYA DAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN PROYEK

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Fitri Nur Kharina ◽  
Kusno Adi Sambowo
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Review Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Construction projects in all regions continues to be developed for the creation of facilities that can be utilized by the community. One of them is the construction of apartments which are now being intensively carried out to meet residential needs for the community. Making a construction project plan always refers to estimates that exist at the time development plan is made, therefore problems can arise if there is a discrepancy between the plans that have been made and the actual reality. So the impact that often occurs is the delay in the time of project implementation which can also be accompanied by an increase in the cost of implementing the project. In the construction project of Cinere Terrace Suites Apartemen & Citywalk, Jakarta there was a delay resulting in a late payment of monthly bill progress by the owner. Based on the above reasons, this research was conducted to find out how the project performance was seen from the cost and time period of the review period. how is the estimated cost and time to complete the overall project work. The method used in the analysis of this study is the Earned Value Method. Based on the results of the analysis carried out for 29 weeks the project performance on schedule has been delayed and cost shows a positive value. For the estimated completion time of the project there is an increase in time whose duration increases from the planned 98 weeks or 685 days to 109,624 weeks or 768 days. While the estimated cost of completing the project from the results of the analysis obtained a value of Rp. 270,147,448,569.16 smaller than the planned cost of Rp. 315,272,727,272.73. With the difference VAC of Rp. 45,125,278,703.57 this shows that there are benefits obtained by the contractor.

scholarly journals EVALUASI PENGENDALIAN BIAYA DAN WAKTU PADA PROYEK PEMBANGUNAN JALAN STRATEGIS MATANG SIJUEK-TRIENG PANTANG DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE EARNED VALUE

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfian Alfian
Keyword(s):  
Project Schedule ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Control Cost ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Earned Value Analysis ◽  
Cost Variance ◽  
Road Paving ◽  
The Cost

Time and cost are important aspects in a construcrtion project to achieve a desired success of the project. One way to control cost and time is to use earned value analysis (return value) that informs the data against the cost and time accurately and clearly. The purpose is to evaluate the amount of cost and usage time has been used in the on road paving projects in the Idi city sub district idi rayeuk district east aceh. The method used in this study is the concept of the value of the result (earned value analysis) examines the tendency of schedule variance and cost variance at a period during the project. By conducting this study of earned value project completion with BCWP =Rp.253,429,607.35 BCWS = Rp. 897,091, 753.ll and ACWP = Rp. 306,453,335. 79. Judging from the cost variance (CV) < 0, with cost performance index (CPI) <l in order to get project completion cost of Rp6,564,l 33,232. While aspects of the project Schedule is extra time -29.2% or 31 weeks ahead ofplan indicated SPI value < 1.Keywords : Cost, Performance, earned value, varians, index.

scholarly journals Analisis Biaya Dan Jadwal Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Metode Earned Value

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 362
Author(s):  
Bagus Zakariyya ◽  
Ahmad Ridwan ◽  
Suwarno Suwarno
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Actual Cost ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
District Health ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Schedule Performance ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
Index Estimate

The construction of the Trenggalek District Health Office Building is a large-scale construction project. Large-scale projects often have performance issues. It is necessary to control costs and schedules for the project to go according to plan. Research using the Earned Value Method aims to find out the performance index, estimate the cost and time of completion of the work. They thus obtained corrections that must be made to the progress of the project. The results of the study in the 12th week were Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) amounting to Rp1,946,626,471.64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) amounted to Rp1,319,204,394.05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) of Rp1,181,554,085.52. Performance costs benefit; Cost Varian (CV) of Rp137,660,308.53 or Cost Performance Index (CPI) is worth 1,117>1. Schedule performance is delayed, Schedule Varian (SV) of -Rp627,422,077.59 or Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is worth 0.678<1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) of Rp3,483,730,479.63 benefited Rp405,885,332.51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) for 29,707 weeks, slow 5,707 weeks.Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek merupakan proyek konstruksi berskala besar.Pada proyek berskala besar sering terjadi permasalahan kinerja. Oleh karena itu perlu pengendalian biaya dan jadwal agar proyek berjalan sesuai rencana. Penelitian ini menggunakan Metode Earned Value dengan tujuan agar   dikeetahui indek kinerja, dan dapat memperkirakan biaya dan waktu penyelesaian pekerjaan, sehingga  diperoleh koreksi yang harus dilakukan untuk kemajuan proyek. Hasil penelitian pada minggu ke-12 adalah Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS) sebesar Rp1.946.626.471,64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) sebesar Rp1.319.204.394,05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) sebesar Rp1.181.554.085,52. Kinerja biaya mendapat keuntungan, Cost Varian (CV) sebesar Rp137.660.308,53 atau Cost Performance Index (CPI) bernilai 1,117>1. Kinerja jadwal mengalami keterlambatan, Schedule Varian (SV) sebesar -Rp627.422.077,59 atau Schedule Performance Index (SPI) bernilai 0,678 < 1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) sebesar Rp3.483.730.479,63 mendapat keuntungan sebesar Rp405.885.332,51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) selama 29,707 minggu, lambat 5,707 minggu.

scholarly journals Telecom Churn Prediction System Based on Ensemble Learning Using Feature Grouping

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4742
Author(s):  
Tianpei Xu ◽  
Ying Ma ◽  
Kangchul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Churn Prediction ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Feature Grouping ◽  
Recognition Systems ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Better Than

In recent years, the telecom market has been very competitive. The cost of retaining existing telecom customers is lower than attracting new customers. It is necessary for a telecom company to understand customer churn through customer relationship management (CRM). Therefore, CRM analyzers are required to predict which customers will churn. This study proposes a customer-churn prediction system that uses an ensemble-learning technique consisting of stacking models and soft voting. Xgboost, Logistic regression, Decision tree, and Naïve Bayes machine-learning algorithms are selected to build a stacking model with two levels, and the three outputs of the second level are used for soft voting. Feature construction of the churn dataset includes equidistant grouping of customer behavior features to expand the space of features and discover latent information from the churn dataset. The original and new churn datasets are analyzed in the stacking ensemble model with four evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that the proposed customer churn predictions have accuracies of 96.12% and 98.09% for the original and new churn datasets, respectively. These results are better than state-of-the-art churn recognition systems.

scholarly journals Roughing Milling with Ceramic Tools in Comparison with Sintered Carbide on Nickel-Based Alloys

Coatings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 734
Author(s):  
Pablo Fernández-Lucio ◽  
Octavio Pereira Neto ◽  
Gaizka Gómez-Escudero ◽  
Francisco Javier Amigo Fuertes ◽  
Asier Fernández Valdivielso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cutting Speed ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Cemented Carbide ◽  
Performance Ratio ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Ceramic Tools ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Engine Components ◽  
Coated Carbide ◽  
Milling Tools

Productivity in the manufacture of aircrafts components, especially engine components, must increase along with more sustainable conditions. Regarding machining, a solution is proposed to increase the cutting speed, but engines are made with very difficult-to-cut alloys. In this work, a comparison between two cutting tool materials, namely (a) cemented carbide and (b) SiAlON ceramics, for milling rough operations in Inconel® 718 in aged condition was carried out. Furthermore, both the influence of coatings in cemented carbide milling tools and the cutting speed in the ceramic tools were analysed. All tools were tested until the end of their useful life. The cost performance ratio was used to compare the productivity of the tested tools. Despite the results showing higher durability of the coated carbide tool, the ceramic tools presented a better behavior in terms of productivity at higher speed. Therefore, ceramic tools should be used for higher productivity demands, while coated carbide tools for low speed-high volume material removal.

scholarly journals Competing Conventions with Costly Information Acquisition

Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Roberto Rozzi
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
The Other ◽  
Group Interactions ◽  
Social Coordination ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost

We consider an evolutionary model of social coordination in a 2 × 2 game where two groups of players prefer to coordinate on different actions. Players can pay a cost to learn their opponent’s group: if they pay it, they can condition their actions concerning the groups. We assess the stability of outcomes in the long run using stochastic stability analysis. We find that three elements matter for the equilibrium selection: the group size, the strength of preferences, and the information’s cost. If the cost is too high, players never learn the group of their opponents in the long run. If one group is stronger in preferences for its favorite action than the other, or its size is sufficiently large compared to the other group, every player plays that group’s favorite action. If both groups are strong enough in preferences, or if none of the groups’ sizes is large enough, players play their favorite actions and miscoordinate in inter-group interactions. Lower levels of the cost favor coordination. Indeed, when the cost is low, in inside-group interactions, players always coordinate on their favorite action, while in inter-group interactions, they coordinate on the favorite action of the group that is stronger in preferences or large enough.

Risk Assessment of Competitive Procurement on Alabama Highway Projects with Texas Comparisions

1998 ◽  
Vol 1649 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Larry G. Crowley ◽  
Jared L. Madewell
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Performance Data ◽  
Specific Task ◽  
Public Agencies ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Construction Contracts ◽  
Cost Growth ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Risk Categories

Public agencies generally let construction contracts to the lowest responsible, responsive bidder. In following this practice, agencies recognize there are higher risks of cost growth in awarding to either unusually low bids or to certain “claim-conscious” bidders. Despite this awareness, there are few documented studies supporting or quantifying the presence of these perceived competitive procurement risks. This research undertakes that specific task. First, bids and bidders on a sample of Alabama highway projects are grouped into risk categories by information available at the project bid opening—well in advance of any potential contract award— and without considering actual project performance data. Second, the cost growth experiences of these projects are statistically analyzed based upon these risk groupings. The results indicate that cost growth on Alabama highway projects is significantly more likely when projects are awarded to unusually low bids or to certain bidder types. A similar study performed earlier on Texas highway projects provides nearly identical results. This type of analysis and the derived information can be used by public agencies to amend the procurement process and objectively disqualify unusually low bids or questionable bidders without abandoning competitive procurement principles.

A weak derivative approach to optimization of threshold parameters in a multicomponent maintenance system

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 386-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Heidergott
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
Replacement Policy ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Weak Derivative ◽  
Preventive Replacement ◽  
Maintenance System ◽  
Threshold Optimization ◽  
Age Replacement ◽  
The Cost

We consider a multicomponent maintenance system controlled by an age replacement policy: when one of the components fails, it is immediately replaced; all components older than a threshold age θ are preventively replaced. Costs are associated with each maintenance action, such as replacement after failure or preventive replacement. We derive a weak derivative estimator for the derivative of the cost performance with respect to θ. The technique is quite general and can be applied to many other threshold optimization problems in maintenance. The estimator is easy to implement and considerably increases the efficiency of a Robbins-Monro type of stochastic approximation algorithm. The paper is self-contained in the sense that it includes a proof of the correctness of the weak derivative estimation algorithm.

The Race for Online Reputation: Implications for Platforms, Firms, and Consumers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingwen Yang ◽  
Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng ◽  
Vijay Mookerjee
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Event ◽  
Marketing Mix ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Online Reputation ◽  
Better Than

Online reputation has become a key marketing-mix variable in the digital economy. Our study helps managers decide on the effort they should use to manage online reputation. We consider an online reputation race in which it is important not just to manage the absolute reputation, but also the relative rating. That is, to stay ahead, a firm should try to have ratings that are better than those of its competitors. Our findings are particularly significant for platform owners (such as Expedia or Yelp) to strategically grow their base of participating firms: growing the middle of the market (firms with average ratings) is the best option considering the goals of the platform and the other stakeholders, namely incumbents and consumers. For firms, we find that they should increase their effort when the mean market rating increases. Another key insight for firms is that, sometimes, adversity can come disguised as an opportunity. When an adverse event strikes the industry (such as a reduction in sales margin or an increase in the cost of effort), a firm’s profit can increase if it can manage this event better than its competitors.

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