scholarly journals Encounter Probability and Risk of Flood and Drought under Future Climate Change in the Two Tributaries of the Rao River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Mengyang Liu ◽  
Yixing Yin ◽  
Xieyao Ma ◽  
Zengxin Zhang ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Encounter Probability ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Major Floods ◽  
Xin’Anjiang Model

Extreme hydrometeorological events have far-reaching impacts on our daily life and may occur more frequently with rising global temperatures. The probability of the concurrence of these extreme events in the upper reaches of the river network is of particular importance for the lower reaches, which is referred to as the encounter probability of extreme events, and may have even stronger socio-economic impacts. In this study, the Rao River basin in China is selected as an example to explore the encounter probability and risk of future flood and drought based on the encounter probability model. The reference period was 1971–2000, and the future prediction periods were 2020–2049 and 2070–2099. The calibrated and validated statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future daily precipitation and daily mean temperature. The calibrated and validated Xin’anjiang model was used to predict future daily mean streamflow in the basin. In addition, the encounter probability model was established using the joint distribution of occurrence dates and magnitudes of daily mean streamflow to investigate the encounter probabilities of flood and drought under future climate change. Results show that, for flood occurrence dates, the encounter probability during the flood season would decrease in the two future periods while the dates would generally be earlier. For flood magnitudes, the encounter probability of the two tributaries’ floods and the probability of flood at each tributary would decrease (e.g., the encounter probability with the same-frequency of 100-years would reduce by 53% to 95%), which indicates reduced risk of future major floods in the study area. For drought occurrence dates, the encounter probability during the non-flood season would decrease. For drought magnitudes, the encounter probability would decrease (e.g., the encounter probability with the same-frequency of 100-years would reduce by 18% to 33%), even though the probability of future drought at each tributary would increase. Such analyses provide important probabilistic information to help us prepare for the upcoming extreme events.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
Jahangir Ali ◽  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Kabul River

scholarly journals Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 69-74
Author(s):  
F. Yuan ◽  
Y. Y. San ◽  
Y. Li ◽  
M. Ma ◽  
L. Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Weihe River ◽  
Weihe River Basin

Abstract. In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univariate drought analysis that future climate change would lead to increased frequencies of extreme hydrological drought events with higher severity. The bivariate drought assessment using copula shows that future droughts in the same return periods as historical droughts would be potentially longer and more severe, in terms of drought duration and severity. This trend would deteriorate the hydrological drought situation in the Weihe River basin. In addition, the uncertainties associated with climate models, hydrological models, and univariate and bivariate drought analysis should be quantified in the future research to improve the reliability of this study.

scholarly journals Projected Effects of Climate Change on Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Linqi Zhang ◽  
Xiaohan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Upper Yangtze River ◽  
The Upper Yangtze River ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China’s water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q5), low flow (Q95), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q5, Q95, and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q5, Q95, and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q95 were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q5. Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q95 and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE TONE RIVER BASIN OF JAPAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. I_25-I_30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maheswor SHRESTHA ◽  
Toshio KOIKE ◽  
Patricia Ann JARANILLA-SANCHEZ ◽  
Lei WANG ◽  
Yasutaka WAKAZUKI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrologic Response

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

scholarly journals Projecting Changes in Temperature Extremes in the Han River Basin of China Using Downscaled CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensembles

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 424
Author(s):  
Weiwei Xiao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
De Li Liu ◽  
Puyu Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Han River ◽  
Han River Basin ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Extreme Indices

Estimating the changes in the spatial–temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events under future climate scenarios is critical to provide reference information to help mitigate climate change. In this study, we analyzed 16 extreme temperature indices calculated based on downscaled data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that were obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the Han River Basin (HRB). The results indicate that the downscaled data from 28 GCMs reproduced a consistent sign of recent trends for all extreme temperature indices except the DTR for the historical period (1961–2013). We found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices (i.e., TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU, TR, and WSDI) and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices (i.e., TX10p, TN10p, CSDI, FD, ID) under both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. Spatially, great changes in warm extremes will occur in the west and southeast of the HRB in the future. The projected changes in extreme temperatures will impact the eco-environment and agricultural production. Our findings will help regional managers adopt countermeasures and strategies to adapt to future climate change, especially extreme weather events.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Future Climate Change Projections on Streamflow Hydrology and Water Availability over Upper Xijiang River Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Touseef ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Tabinda Masud ◽  
Aziz Khan ◽  
Kaipeng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Xijiang River ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
The Future

Hydrological models are widely applied for simulating complex watershed processes and directly linking meteorological, topographical, land-use, and geological conditions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at two monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions in the Upper Xijiang River Basin. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow and water yield of the Upper Xijiang River Basin using Arc-SWAT. The model was calibrated (1991–1997) and validated (1998–2001) using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2). Model calibration and validation suggest a good match between the measured and simulated monthly streamflow, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow predictions. Large negative changes of low flows are projected under future climate scenarios, exhibiting a 10% and 30% decrease in water yield over the watershed on a monthly scale. Overall, findings generally indicated that winter flows are expected to be affected the most, with a maximum impact during the January–April period, followed by the wet monsoon season in the May–September period. Water balance components of the Upper Xijiang River Basin are expected to change significantly due to the projected climate change that, in turn, will seriously affect the water resources and streamflow patterns in the future. Thus, critical problems, such as ground water shortages, drops in agricultural crop yield, and increases in domestic water demand are expected at the Xijiang River Basin.

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