scholarly journals Deterministic Analysis and Uncertainty Analysis of Ensemble Forecasting Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition for Estimation of Monthly Groundwater Level

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Min Wu ◽  
Qi Feng ◽  
Xiaohu Wen ◽  
Zhenliang Yin ◽  
Linshan Yang ◽  
...  

Precise multi-time scales prediction of groundwater level is essential for water resources planning and management. However, credible and reliable predicting results are hard to achieve even to extensively applied artificial intelligence (AI) models considering the uncontrollable error, indefinite inputs and unneglectable uncertainty during the modelling process. The AI model ensembled with the data pretreatment technique, the input selection method, or uncertainty analysis has been successfully used to tackle this issue, whereas studies about the comprehensive deterministic and uncertainty analysis of hybrid models in groundwater level forecast are rarely reported. In this study, a novel hybrid predictive model combining the variational mode decomposition (VMD) data pretreatment technique, Boruta input selection method, bootstrap based uncertainty analysis, and the extreme learning machine (ELM) model named VBELM was developed for 1-, 2- and 3-month ahead groundwater level prediction in a typical arid oasis area of northwestern China. The historical observed monthly groundwater level, precipitation and temperature data were used as inputs to train and test the model. Specifically, the VMD was used to decompose all the input-outputs into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), the Boruta method was applied to determine input variables, and the ELM was employed to forecast the value of each IMF. In order to ascertain the efficiency of the proposed VBELM model, the performance of the coupled model (VELM) hybridizing VMD with ELM algorithm and the single ELM model were estimated in comparison. The results indicate that the VBELM performed best, while the single ELM model performed the worst among the three models. Furthermore, the VBELM model presented lower uncertainty than the VELM model with more observed groundwater level values falling inside the confidence interval. In summary, the VBELM model demonstrated an excellent performance for both certainty and uncertainty analyses, and can serve as an effective tool for multi-scale groundwater level forecasting.

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 3510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhijian Wang ◽  
Junyuan Wang ◽  
Wenhua Du

Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) can decompose signals into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In recent years, VMD has been widely used in fault diagnosis. However, it requires a preset number of decomposition layers K and is sensitive to background noise. Therefore, in order to determine K adaptively, Permutation Entroy Optimization (PEO) is proposed in this paper. This algorithm can adaptively determine the optimal number of decomposition layers K according to the characteristics of the signal to be decomposed. At the same time, in order to solve the sensitivity of VMD to noise, this paper proposes a Modified VMD (MVMD) based on the idea of Noise Aided Data Analysis (NADA). The algorithm first adds the positive and negative white noise to the original signal, and then uses the VMD to decompose it. After repeated cycles, the noise in the original signal will be offset to each other. Then each layer of IMF is integrated with each layer, and the signal is reconstructed according to the results of the integrated mean. MVMD is used for the final decomposition of the reconstructed signal. The algorithm is used to deal with the simulation signals and measured signals of gearbox with multiple fault characteristics. Compared with the decomposition results of EEMD and VMD, it shows that the algorithm can not only improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the signal effectively, but can also extract the multiple fault features of the gear box in the strong noise environment. The effectiveness of this method is verified.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxing Li ◽  
Xiao Chen ◽  
Jing Yu ◽  
Xiaohui Yang ◽  
Huijun Yang

The data-driven method is an important tool in the field of underwater acoustic signal processing. In order to realize the feature extraction of ship-radiated noise (S-RN), we proposed a data-driven optimization method called improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD). IVMD, as an improved method of variational mode decomposition (VMD), solved the problem of choosing decomposition layers for VMD by using a frequency-aided method. Furthermore, a novel method of feature extraction for S-RN, which combines IVMD and sample entropy (SE), is put forward in this paper. In this study, four types of S-RN signals are decomposed into a group of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by IVMD. Then, SEs of all IMFs are calculated. SEs are different in the maximum energy IMFs (EIMFs), thus, SE of the EIMF is seen as a novel feature for S-RN. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparison has been conducted by comparing features of center frequency and SE of the EIMF by IVMD, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and ensemble EMD (EEMD). The analysis results show that the feature of S-RN can be obtain efficiently and accurately by using the proposed method.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 888-898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Siyuan Cao ◽  
Zhiming Wang

Abstract We have proposed a new denoising method for the simultaneous noise reduction and preservation of seismic signals based on variational mode decomposition (VMD). VMD is a recently developed adaptive signal decomposition method and an advance in non-stationary signal analysis. It solves the mode-mixing and non-optimal reconstruction performance problems of empirical mode decomposition that have existed for a long time. By using VMD, a multi-component signal can be non-recursively decomposed into a series of quasi-orthogonal intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), each of which has a relatively local frequency range. Meanwhile, the signal will focus on a smaller number of obtained IMFs after decomposition, and thus the denoised result is able to be obtained by reconstructing these signal-dominant IMFs. Synthetic examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and comparison is made with the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition, which demonstrates that the VMD algorithm has lower computational cost and better random noise elimination performance. The application of on field seismic data further illustrates the superior performance of our method in both random noise attenuation and the recovery of seismic events.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weifang Zhang ◽  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Yan Zhao ◽  
Bo Jin ◽  
Wei Dai

Damage detection using an FBG sensor is a critical process for an assessment of any inspection technology classified as structural health monitoring (SHM). FBG signals containing noise in experiments are developed to detect flaws. In this paper, we propose a novel signal denoising method that combines variational mode decomposition (VMD) and changed thresholding wavelets to denoise experimental and mixed signals. VMD is a recently introduced adaptive signal decomposition algorithm. Compared with traditional empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and it is well founded theoretically and more robust to noise samples. First, input signals were broken down into a given number of K band-limited intrinsic mode functions (BLIMFs) by VMD. For the purpose of avoiding the impact of overbinning or underbinning on VMD denoising, the mixed signals, which were obtained by adding different signal/noise ratio (SNR) noises to the experimental signals, were designed to select the best decomposition number K and data-fidelity constraint parameter α. After that, the realistic experimental signals were processed using four denoising algorithms to evaluate denoising performance. The results show that, upon adding additional noisy signals and realistic signals, the proposed algorithm delivers excellent performance over the EMD-based denoising method and discrete wavelet transform filtering.


Geophysics ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 81 (5) ◽  
pp. V365-V378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Siyuan Cao ◽  
Yangkang Chen

We have introduced a novel time-frequency decomposition approach for analyzing seismic data. This method is inspired by the newly developed variational mode decomposition (VMD). The principle of VMD is to look for an ensemble of modes with their respective center frequencies, such that the modes collectively reproduce the input signal and each mode is smooth after demodulation into baseband. The advantage of VMD is that there is no residual noise in the modes and it can further decrease redundant modes compared with the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and improved CEEMD (ICEEMD). Moreover, VMD is an adaptive signal decomposition technique, which can nonrecursively decompose a multicomponent signal into several quasi-orthogonal intrinsic mode functions. This new tool, in contrast to empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and its variations, such as EEMD, CEEMD, and ICEEMD, is based on a solid mathematical foundation and can obtain a time-frequency representation that is less sensitive to noise. Two tests on synthetic data showed the effectiveness of our VMD-based time-frequency analysis method. Application on field data showed the potential of the proposed approach in highlighting geologic characteristics and stratigraphic information effectively. All the performances of the VMD-based approach were compared with those from the CEEMD- and ICEEMD-based approaches.


2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxia Zheng ◽  
Guowang Zhou ◽  
Dongdong Li ◽  
Haohan Ren

Rolling bearings are the key components of rotating machinery. However, the incipient fault characteristics of a rolling bearing vibration signal are weak and difficult to extract. To solve this problem, this paper presents a novel rolling bearing vibration signal fault feature extraction and fault pattern recognition method based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), permutation entropy (PE) and support vector machines (SVM). In the proposed method, the bearing vibration signal is decomposed by VMD, and the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are obtained in different scales. Then, the PE values of each IMF are calculated to uncover the multi-scale intrinsic characteristics of the vibration signal. Finally, PE values of IMFs are fed into SVM to automatically accomplish the bearing condition identifications. The proposed method is evaluated by rolling bearing vibration signals. The results indicate that the proposed method is superior and can diagnose rolling bearing faults accurately.


Geophysics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. B221-B228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaohui Xu ◽  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Fangyu Li ◽  
Gang Cao ◽  
Yuming Liu

Sequence stratigraphy analysis is one of the most important tasks in evaluating and characterizing the reservoir system within a basin. However, it is very hard to identify the system tracts and lithofacies using well logs for the conglomerate reservoirs because of the strong lithology heterogeneity. Based on the fact that the system tracts and lithofacies usually illustrate cycle features within the basin, we decompose the well logs into different intrinsic modes to characterize the sequence units and lithofacies at different scale. First, we analyze the log response to lithologies to determine the well logs used for sequence analysis. Then, we use variational mode decomposition to decompose the selected well logs into an ensemble of different band-limited intrinsic mode functions, each with its center wavenumber. Finally, we interpret the sequence stratigraphy and lithofacies using corresponding decomposed modes. We validate the effectiveness of our method in the lithofacies and sequence identification for a conglomerate reservoir in the Shengli oil field, Bohai Bay Basin, east China. The decomposed intrinsic modes with a larger center wavenumber perfectly characterize the sequence units at a larger scale, whereas the decomposed intrinsic modes with a smaller center wavenumber reveal the lithofacies changes at a smaller scale. The application illustrates that it is much more convenient and easier for sequence stratigraphy analysis to integrate the original and decomposed logs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-25

Side channel attacks (SCAs) are now a real threat to cryptographic devices and correlation power analysis (CPA) is the most powerful attack. So far, a CPA attack usually exploits the leakage information from raw power consumption traces that collected from the attack device. In real attack scenarios, these traces collected from measurement equipment are usually contaminated by noise resulting in a decrease in attack efficiency. In this paper, we propose a variant CPA attack that exploits the leakage information from intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of the power traces. These IMFs are the results of the variational mode decomposition (VMD) process on the raw power traces. This attack technique decreases the number of power traces for correctly recovering the secret key by approximately 13% in normal conditions and 60% in noisy conditions compared to a traditional CPA attack. Experiments were performed on power traces of AES-128 implemented in both microcontroller and FPGA by Sakura-G/W side channel evaluation board to verify the effectiveness of our method.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Zhongbin Wang ◽  
Bin Liang ◽  
Lei Si ◽  
Kuangwei Tong ◽  
Chao Tan

The recognition of shearer cutting state is the key technology to realize the intelligent control of the shearer, which has become a highly difficult subject concerned by the world. This paper takes the sound signal as analytic objects and proposes a novel recognition method based on the combination of variational mode decomposition (VMD), principal component analysis method (PCA), and least square support vector machine (LSSVM). VMD can decompose a signal into various modes by using calculus of variation and effectively avoid the false component and mode mixing problems. On this basis, an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) is designed by using the position update mechanism of Levy flight strategy to find the optimal parameter combination of VMD. Then, the feature extraction is achieved by calculating the envelope entropy and kurtosis of the decomposed intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). To avoid dimensional disasters and reinforce the classification performance, PCA is introduced to choose useful features, and the LSSVM-based classifier is reasonably constructed. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method is more feasible and superior in the recognition of shearer cutting states.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juncai Xu ◽  
Bangjun Lei

Data interpretation is the crucial scientific component that influences the inspection accuracy of ground penetrating radar (GPR). Developing algorithms for interpreting GPR data is a research focus of increasing interest. The problem of algorithms for interpreting GPR data is unresolved. To this end, this study proposes a sophisticated algorithm for interpreting GPR data with the aim of improving the inspection resolution. The algorithm is formulated by integrating variational mode decomposition (VMD) and Hilbert–Huang transform techniques. With this method, the intrinsic mode function of the GPR data is first produced using the VMD of the data, followed by obtaining the instantaneous frequency by using the Hilbert–Huang transform to analyze the intrinsic mode functions. The instantaneous frequency data can be decomposed into three frequency attributes, including frequency division section, time-frequency section, and space frequency section, which constitute a platform to gain insight into the nature of the GPR data, such that the inspected media components can be examined. The effectiveness of the proposed method on a synthetic signal from a GPR forward model was studied, with the multi-resolution performance being tested. Inspecting the media of a highroad by analyzing the GPR data, with the abnormal characteristics being designated, validated the applicability of the proposed method.


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