scholarly journals The Export Supply Response of Mangoes: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Ghafoor ◽  
Khalid Mushtaq ◽  
Abedullah Abedullah
Keyword(s):  
Relative Price ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Export Supply ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.

scholarly journals How do Globalization, Technological Change and Employment Impact Economic Growth in Developing Countries? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-49
Author(s):  
Fatima Saleem ◽  
Fatima Farooq ◽  
Imran Sharif Chaudhry ◽  
Noreen Safdar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at exploring the impact of globalization, technology and employment on economic growth of developing economies. This study also observed the long-run, short-run and causality relationships between globalization, technological innovations, employment, and economic growth for 20 selected developing countries covering the data for period of 1991 to 2017.  Since stationary of variables is examined through ADF tests, Levin-Lin-Chu test, and IM-Pesaran-Shin test and resulted with mixed order of integration, Panel ARDL estimation techniques are employed to measure the long run effects of these variables on growth of selected economies. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger Causality test was applied for causality analysis. All variables have strong positive and significant relationship with growth. This study concluded that knowledge and research-based education have a key role in promoting long-run growth as evident from the ‘New growth theory’ of Romer. On the basis of these results, it is suggested that knowledge and research-based education should be promoted and export-oriented policies should also be encouraged to attain benefits of trade openness and globalization for accelerating economic growth on sustainable basis.

scholarly journals Impact of Financial Risk Indicators on Banks’ Financial Performance in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Zhongming Tan ◽  
Frimpong Samuel ◽  
Guoping Ding
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This research is to study the impact of some financial risk indicators on fifteen selected commercial banks’ in Ghana. The indication from the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test results show that the data series after first difference at the first order achieved stationarity. The analysis of the data revealed the existence of significant long run relationship between bank financial performance and the variables of financial risk in the banking sector. The granger causality test results reveal that there is unidirectional causality flowing from the variables of financial risk This suggest that the indicators of financial risk strongly and actively stimulate and improve the financial performance of banks in Ghana. The study recommends that bank managers should improve on the management of all the indicators of financial risk variables in order to improve on the achievement of the objective of the firm.

scholarly journals The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Ali Abdulkadir Ali ◽  
Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali ◽  
Mohamed Saney Dalmar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Somalia over the period 1970-1991 was investigated. The study applied econometric methods such as Ordinary Least Squares technique. The Granger Causality and Johansen Co-integration tests were also used for analysing the long term association. By using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationarity test, the variables proved to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Johansen test of co-integration was used to determine if there is a long run association in the variables. To determine the direction of causality among the variables, both in the long and short run, the Pair-wise Granger Causality test was carried out. It was found that economic growth does not Granger Cause Export but was found hat export Granger Cause GDP. So this implies that there is unidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. Also there is bidirectional Granger Causality between import and export. The results show that economic growth in Somalia requires export-led growth strategy as well as export led import. Imports and exports are thus seen as the source of economic growth in Somalia.

scholarly journals Impact of Tax Reduction Policy on Banking Sector in Pakistan

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 373-382
Author(s):  
Khalid Mahmood Lodhi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This study analyzes the impact of tax policy reforms on the profits of banking sector. The empirical results of unit root and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test reveal that the data series of tax is positively skewed whereas data series of profitability is negatively skewed. The kurtosis value indicates that all the series are platykurtic. From the value of ADF statistics, it is evident that all the variables are non-stationery at log level and are stationary at their first difference. Granger Causality Test shows that profitability of banking does not granger because tax but tax granger cause profitability of banking which depicts that the change in tax rate affects the profitability of banking industries. The study finds that reduction in corporate income tax rates for banking sector has produced positive impact in shape of increased banking sector profits and assets during the period under review.

scholarly journals Testing Causality and Cointegration of Savings and Investment In Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-137
Author(s):  
Henry Otoo ◽  
Sampson Takyi Appiah ◽  
Albert Buabeng ◽  
M. Apodei
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time

This paper sought to identify the causal relationship between saving and investment in Ghana as these econometric indicators serve as a measure for the economic development and wellbeing of developing countries. Annual time series of Saving and Investment in Ghana spanning from 1980 to 2017 were considered. First, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock (ERS) tests are carried out to determine the integration order of saving and investment data series. The Johansen's trace and maximum eigenvalue tests for cointegration were performed to ascertain the level of cointegration which suggested a long-run relationship between the saving and investment in Ghana despite potential deviations in the short-run. Finally, the Granger Causality test suggested saving as having a causal relationship with investment, while the reverse indicated no relationship. The study, therefore, recommended intensifying saving, both at the national and household level as a crucial direction for consideration if Ghana intends to finance her investments rather than relying mostly on foreign aid.  

scholarly journals The Dynamic of Macroeconomics Elements in Malaysia: Further Insight into Causality Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dayang Hummida Abang Abdul Rahman ◽  
Nuzaihan Majidi ◽  
Jati Kasuma ◽  
Yusman Yacob ◽  
Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This paper intends to explore the causality effect between Growth Domestic Product (GDP), population and unemployment in Malaysia. Based on the observation of Malaysia’s historical data, there is a distinct movement in each of these individual macroeconomics components over the years. Past literature within the same area has illustrated various patterns on the possibility of a causal relationship that each variable has on one another. Several stages of analysis are conducted to verify the presence of causality effect from Malaysian economic perspective, which includes unit root test that employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedures, followed by Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration and Granger-causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views software. Each procedure is conducted using Malaysia’s time series data for each of the three elements from 1980 to 2013 obtained from Malaysia’s Department of Statistics. Our findings revealed that there is one cointegration detected for the tested variables; whereas the results indicate that population can Granger cause unemployment in the short run. Furthermore, it is found that unemployment solely bears the effect from short run adjustment to bring about the long run equilibrium within the tested framework. This study is important for the policy maker to understand the reason behind the causality effect that could jeopardize the rate of unemployment in Malaysia. As the attention is given specifically to three variables particularly GDP, population and unemployment, this study is aimed at broadening the prospect for further investigation within the same area of macroeconomics.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

scholarly journals General Patterns and Drivers of Changes in Employment Structure: Evidence from Five European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-362
Author(s):  
Larysa Yakymova
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
National Level ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

This paper seeks to answer whether the general patterns and drivers of the sectoral employment shifts depend on a country’s level of development. To accomplish this, we examined employment in Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Ukraine at the national level (1998-2018) using econometric analysis, and at the regional NUTS2 level (2009-2018) using shift-share analysis. We obtained evidence that the general trend is the service sector expansion. Using the ARDL approach and the Granger causality test, we identified long-run unidirectional causality running from income proxies to employment in services in all countries except Romania, where the opposite causality was found. We revealed that household income moderates the impact of urbanization on service sector growth in all countries except Poland. At the regional level, the change in the employment rate in services is explained by the national growth effect and slightly by the industry-mix effect if the active phase of structural changes is completed.

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