scholarly journals Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports in 2001-2018 Using The Vector Autoregression (VAR) Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diandra Locita Sari ◽  
Sugeng Hadi Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Vertical Integration ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Export Expansion ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive

Coffee exports are influenced by the exchange rate, the price of coffee and the amount of production. The purpose of the study was to determine the short-term and long-term relationship between coffee exports in 2001-2018. The research method is quantitative descriptive using classical assumption test and Error Correlation Model (ECM). The results of the VAR study are that coffee exports are not affected by coffee prices, coffee production and the rupiah exchange rate. Coffee exports were not significantly affected by coffee production, coffee prices and the exchange rate (exchange rate) using VAR. result Grangger's is that coffee production affects coffee exports and the exchange rate affects coffee exports. Test IRF and VD is the coffee production is influenced by coffee prices and the exchange rate, the price of coffee affects the production of coffee, coffee exports and the exchange rate and the exchange rate is influenced by the price of coffee and coffee exports. As for advice because coffee production affects coffee exports from Indonesia then, the government should do a vertical integration from upstream (people's plantations) to downstream (industries) to increase export expansion.

العلاقة التبادلية بين سعر الصرف وأسعار الأسهم دراسة تطبيقية في سوق اسطنبول للأوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
سعدالله ألنعيمي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study aims to analyzing the reciprocal relationship between the nominal exchange rate of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and the stock prices of the companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) expressed in the general market index for the period from 2005 to 2020 with 192 monthly observations, based on the traditional theory and the theory of portfolio balance model in theoretical interpretation for that relationship, aiming to identify the effect of the exchange rate on stock prices, as well as to analyze the causal relationship between those variables and to identify which of them is the cause or which is the result, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices in the long term, despite the emergence of the negative impact in the short term, but the long-term relationship has corrected the course of the short-term relationship with a time period not exceeding one month, in addition to proving that this relationship takes one direction. From the exchange rate towards stock prices, that is, the exchange rate is the reason and stock prices are the result, therefore the results of this research helps investors to predict future trends of stock prices depending on the exchange rate changes, and it also enables the companies, especially those with foreign transactions, to manage price risks the exchange rate in order to avoid its negative impact on its share price, as it represents an obstacle to achieving its main goal of maximizing the share price

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model Of Exchange Rate Determination And Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-55
Author(s):  
Aima Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Nonlinear Feedback ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Objective: The objective of this paper is to develop a model of exchange rate determination and forecasting to provide reasonable forecasts for the exchange rate to facilitate long-term investments. Design: The study develops the model using the system dynamics method. Grounded on the fundamental theories, the model incorporates nonlinear feedback relationships of interest rate, inflation, per capita income, terms of trade, and oil prices with the exchange rate. Findings: The simulation results indicate the robustness of the model to mimic not only the long term past behavior of the exchange rate but also its ability to provide a reliable long-term forecast for the exchange rate. The model is portable and applies to any oil-exporting country after calibration. Policy Implications: The study has practical implications for individuals, businesses, and the Government because they are all influenced by the exchange rate movements. Specifically, this model provides a useful tool for long term strategic financial planning of oil firms. Originality: The study develops a model for exchange rate accounting for nonlinear feedback relationships among the variables.

scholarly journals Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 361-374
Author(s):  
Muammar Rinaldi ◽  
Shinta Arida Hutagalung ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the short and long term gross domestic product, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesia's balance of payments. The data used in this study are secondary data which is obtained indirectly with the period of 1995 to 2015. Data sources were obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data collection method used in this study with the indirect method is documentation through recording or copying data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis model used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the regression model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) regarding the effect of independent variables such as Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Inflation Against the Dependent dependent variable in Indonesia, then it can some conclusions are presented, namely from several independent variables that are tried and included in the savings equation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short term, namely the gross domestic product variable, the inflation rate, and exchange rate. In the long run there are 2 (two) significant variables, namely gross domestic product and the exchange rate. While inflation is not significant. For the short term, there is 1 (one) significant variable, namely the exchange rate. Thus, only exchange rate variables are significant in both the short and long term. With only 1 (one) significant independent variable both in the long term and short term, it can be concluded that the exchange rate in the long term and short term is the main determining factor that affects the Balance of Payments in Indonesia. In the long run, Independent variables such as Gross Domestic Product and the exchange rate on the dependent variable Balance of Payments in Indonesia have a significant effect on the dependent variable Balance of Payments. Whereas in the short run, the exchange rate variable has a significant effect, and for other independent variables such as the GDP variable and the inflation rate does not have a significant effect.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, JUB, SBI, SERTA CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TAHUN 2017-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Duwik Tri Utami ◽  
Fitrah Sari Islami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Indonesia's economy refers to an open economy. In conducting international trade, countries must compare their currencies with currencies belonging to other countries. Where, the United States currency, namely the dollar, is still the standard of world exchange rates and is used in international transactions. The effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupiah with the dollar is the occurrence of depreciation or appreciation which will affect Indonesia's economic activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The variables that are thought to be able to influence changes in the rupiah exchange rate are the inflation rate, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. This research was conducted during January 2017 to December 2020, using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The result is a long-term and short-term relationship. In the short term, foreign exchange reserves and the money supply (M2) significantly affect the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the SBI interest rate, money supply (M2), and foreign exchange reserves significantly affect the exchange rate.

Evaluating Factors Affect Green IT Readiness (Part 1)

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yas A. Alsultanny ◽  
Fatma M. Alnassar
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Governance ◽  
Green It ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Technology Practice ◽  
The Government ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
It Departments ◽  
Data Centres

The IT departments must have green IT readiness to control emissions from data centres and selecting equipments of low power consumption. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting green IT readiness. A questionnaire of developed to evaluate green IT readiness from the perspective of the IT staff. The questionnaire divided into two parts. The first part is for demographic information and general questions. The second part for green IT dimensions; technology, practice, policy, governance, and attitude. The data collected from 401 respondents. The results showed that the factors; technology, practice, attitude, and maintenance have an agree degree of agreement, while the factors; policy, governance, and green IT readiness have neutral degree of agreement. The governance has the highest correlation and influence on green IT readiness. The study recommends organizations, to setup strategies for implementing green IT as short-term solutions, and the government needs new laws and policies to implement green IT as a long-term solution.

scholarly journals Perilaku Investasi di Indonesia: Kajian Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daru Wahyuni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
National Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Elasticity Coefficient ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this research was to know how domestic investment in Indonesia behaves both in the short term and in the long term. Data used were secondary data obtained from various sources. Those data would be analyzed by using a dynamic analysis tool consisted of a cointegration approach and an error correction model.Several findings obtained from this research were (1) ECT coefficient (4.16) significantly and  statistically influenced domestic investment in Indonesia. It indicated that the error correction model used in this research was valid. (2) In the short term, national income variables and domestic interest rates did not significantly affect domestic investment while government investment variables and rate of exchange positively and significantly influenced domestic investment. Elasticity coefficient of the government investment and the exchange rate were –1.44 and 2.34 respectively. (3) By concerning time lag factor, the estimation results showed that the national incomes, the domestic interest rates, the government investment , and  exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar in the previous 1 year significantly affected domestic investment. Their elasticity  were 2.18, -1.18, -2.18 and 1.26 respectively. (4) In the long term, the national income variables and the exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar positively and significantly influenced domestic investment  meanwhile the domestic interest rate variables and the government investment did not significantly influence domestic investment. The elasticity coefficient of the national income and  exchange rate were 3.08 and –2.19 respectively.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Suku Bunga Acuan Terhadap Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Periode 2005:1 – 2015: 1 (Pendekatan Error Correction Model)

MODUS ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Toni Saputra ◽  
R Maryatmo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Current Account

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar dan suku bunga acuan terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia periode 2005:1- 2015:1. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder. Data sekunder bersumber dari website Bank Indonesia. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah Errror Correction Model (ECM). Selanjutnya analisis deskriptif digunakan untuk menjelaskan hasil penelitian.Penelitian ini menghasilkan dua hal. Pertama, dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan. Kedua, dalam jangka pendek suku bunga acuan tidak berpengaruh terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang suku bunga acuan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan. Kata Kunci: neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia, nilai tukar, suku bunga acuan, Errror Correction Model AbstractThis study aims to determine and analyze the effect of exchange rates and interest rates on current account in Indonesia from 2005: 1 to 2015: 1. The data used is secondary data. Secondary data is sourced from the website of Bank Indonesia. The analysis tool used is Errror Correction Model (ECM). Further descriptive analysis is used to explain the study results.This research resulted in two things. First, in the short term exchange rate has no effect on the current account in Indonesia. In the long term the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on the current account. Second, in the short-term benchmark interest rate has no effect on the current account in Indonesia. In the long-term benchmark interest rate has a negative effect on the current account. Keywords: current account in Indonesia, the exchange rate, the benchmark interest rate, errror Correction Model

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Likuiditas, Faktor Fundamental Ekonomi Makro Dan Faktor Eksternal Terhadap Imbal Hasil Surat Utang Negara (Seri FR0031)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Deandra Aulia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government

The government reopened the series FR0031 sovereign debt at the beginning of January 2010 through the Bank Indonesia auction system. The offered interest rate same as the beginning when the government issued FR0031 series debt securities, fixed rate of 11% but over time yield or yield in the form of coupons received by investors are fluctuating.               The aims of this research is to analyze the short term and long term influence of liquidity, interest rate, inflation, GDP, and exchange rate to imbal hasil National Bond (SUN) in the year of 2010 – 2017. This research using quarterly data of 2010 – 2017 for each variable. Data in this study is secondary data time series which provide by Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, BPS and publication of Directorate General of Debt Management. The methode which used in this research is Error Correction Model. The result shows that variable inflation, GDP and exchange rate significantly positive effect in otherhand liquidity and interset rate significantly negative effect on Imbal hasil Curve SUN in long term. Judging by the value of the R square was 0.906314 it means 90.63% of imbal hasil explainable by independent variables used in this research the rest 9.37% explained by other factors. Based on the regression results there is no variable that significant in the short term with R square of 0.341939 which means the independent variable is able to explain 34.19% and 65.81% variation of the dependent variable

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