scholarly journals Rethinking the Role of the Representativeness Heuristic in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Roman Frydman ◽  
Morten Nyboe Tabor
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Behavioral Models ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Representativeness Heuristic ◽  
Finance Theory ◽  
Empirical Foundation

We propose a novel interpretation and formalization of Kahneman and Tversky's findings in the Linda experiment which implies that subjects are rational in the sense of Muth's hypothesis and provides an approach to specifying rational assessment of uncertainty in macroeconomic models. Behavioral-finance theorists have appealed to Kahneman and Tversky's findings as an empirical foundation for a general approach replacing rational expectations. We show that behavioral models' specifications of participants' irrational forecasts and predictable errors are incompatible with Kahneman and Tversky's findings. Our interpretation of Kahneman and Tversky's findings is supportive of Lucas's compelling critique of inconsistent macroeconomic models.

The Role of Behavioral Models in the Ontological Structure of Modern Macroeconomics

2013 ◽  
pp. 98-110
Author(s):  
M. Likhachev
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Institutional Structure ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Behavioral Models ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
Practical Implications

Behavioral models are considered in the paper as the link between the description of the institutional structure of the economic system and the formation of macro-aggregates, reflecting the results of its operations. The degree of homogeneity of the private sector’s economic environment and complementary goals of private entities and government regulation are noted as basic characteristics of behavioral models. The author examines the differences in the estimates of these characteristics as one of the most important factors underpinning the architecture of modern macroeconomic models and their practical implications.

Behavioral Finance in Theory and Practice

2014 ◽  
pp. 254-271
Author(s):  
Mustafa Okur ◽  
A. Osman Gurbuz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Finance Theory

Behavioral finance is a new approach in finance literature. The main idea is that investors are not as rational as they are assumed to be. Therefore, financial markets could be better understood by using models that capture the effects of both rational and irrational investors. The critics of behavioral finance could be grouped into two main categories: limits of arbitrage and psychological factors. This chapter concentrates on both challenges and possible contributions of behavioral finance theory to the modern finance theory, which is mainly based on rational expectations theory and efficient market hypothesis.

The Role of Psychological Factors in Behavioral Finance

2015 ◽  
pp. 94-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kijpokin Kasemsap
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Psychological Theory ◽  
Global Finance ◽  
Strategic Objectives ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Belief Perseverance ◽  
Finance Theory

This chapter introduces the role of psychological factors in behavioral finance, thus explaining the theory of behavioral finance, the application of behavioral finance theory, the empirical achievement in behavioral finance, the utilization of psychological factors in behavioral finance regarding beliefs (i.e., overconfidence, too much trading, optimism and wishful thinking, representativeness bias, conservatism bias, belief perseverance, anchoring, and availability bias) and preferences (i.e., prospect theory and ambiguity aversion). Behavioral finance is a comparatively new management field that seeks to combine behavioral and cognitive psychological theory with conventional economics and finance to provide descriptions for why people make unreasonable financial decisions. Psychological factors in behavioral finance hold out the expectation of a better understanding of financial market behavior and scope for investors to make better investment decisions. Applying psychological factors in behavioral finance will tremendously enhance financial performance and achieve strategic objectives in global finance.

The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics and Finance Theory

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Frydman ◽  
Michael D. Goldberg
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Real World ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Individual Behavior ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
World Markets ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge ◽  
Finance Theory ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge Economics

This chapter examines the imperfect knowledge imperative in modern macroeconomics and finance theory. It argues that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) has nothing to do with how even minimally reasonable profit-seeking individuals forecast the future in real-world markets. It attributes REH's insurmountable epistemological difficulties and widespread empirical problems to a single, overarching premise that underpins contemporary macroeconomics and finance theory: nonroutine change is unimportant for understanding outcomes. It also suggests that contemporary behavioral finance models rest on the same core premise as their REH-based counterparts. Finally, it introduces an alternative approach to modeling individual behavior and aggregate outcomes: Imperfect Knowledge Economics, which opens macroeconomics and finance models to nonroutine change and the imperfect knowledge that it engenders.

SUNSPOTS, ANIMAL SPIRITS, AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelle Chauvet ◽  
Jang-Ting Guo
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
State Of The Economy

Multiple-equilibria macroeconomic models suggest that consumers' and investors' perceptions about the state of the economy may be important independent factors for business cycles. In this paper, we verify empirically the interrelations between waves of optimism and pessimism and subsequent economic fluctuations. We focus on the behavior of nonfundamental movements in the consumer sentiment index, as a proxy for consumers' sunspots, and in the business formation index, representing investors' animal spirits, around economic turning points. We find that bearish consumers and entrepreneurs were present before the onset of some U.S. economic downturns, sometimes even when the fundamentals were all very strong. In particular, our analysis shows that self-fulfilling pessimism may have played a nontrivial role in the 1969–1970, the 1973–1975, and the 1981–1982 recessions. The results are robust to a range of alternative linear and nonlinear specifications. Our evidence provides some empirical support for the role of nonfundamental rational expectations in economic fluctuations.

Behavioral Finance in Theory and Practice

2014 ◽  
pp. 311-328
Author(s):  
Mustafa Okur ◽  
A. Osman Gurbuz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Finance Theory

Behavioral finance is a new approach in finance literature. The main idea is that investors are not as rational as they are assumed to be. Therefore, financial markets could be better understood by using models that capture the effects of both rational and irrational investors. The critics of behavioral finance could be grouped into two main categories: limits of arbitrage and psychological factors. This chapter concentrates on both challenges and possible contributions of behavioral finance theory to the modern finance theory, which is mainly based on rational expectations theory and efficient market hypothesis.

Real Estate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Homburg
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Borrowing Constraints ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Quantitative Importance

Chapter 6 examines real estate as a neglected feature of actual economies. It begins with an empirical overview demonstrating the preeminent role of land as a part of nonfinancial wealth. Whereas many macroeconomic models represent nonfinancial wealth by a symbol K that is interpreted as machines and equipment (if not robots), the text makes clear that such items are of minor quantitative importance. In contemporary economies, nonfinancial wealth consists chiefly of real estate. This is the proper reason so many analysts conjecture a link between house prices and the Great Recession. Changes in house prices (primarily changes in land prices) operate on the economy through their influence on nonfinancial wealth. Nonfinancial wealth affects consumption directly and investment indirectly since it relaxes or tightens borrowing constraints. Building on the results obtained in previous chapters, the text studies housing manias and leverage cycles and relates its main findings to US data.

VAR INTERPRETATIONS OF HAAVELMO’S MARKET MODEL OF CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-212
Author(s):  
Erik Biørn
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Investment Theory ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Geometric Decay

In the paper attempts are made to integrate two parts of Trygve Haavelmo’s work: investment theory and dynamic econometric models of interrelated markets. Specifically, the duality in the representation of the capital service price and the capital quantity in relation to the investment price and quantity are brought to the forefront and confronted with elements from simultaneous equation modeling of vector autoregressive systems containing exogenous variables (VARX), using linear four-equation models. The role of the interest rate and the modeling of the expectation element in the capital service price and the capital’s retirement pattern, and their joint effect on the model’s investment quantity and price dynamics are discussed. Stability conditions are illustrated by examples. Extensions relaxing geometric decay and ways of accounting for forward-looking behavior, including rational expectations, are outlined. Some remarks on the theory-data confrontation of this kind of model are given.

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