scholarly journals Modeling the Determinants of Import in Kyrgyzstan

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Zamira Oskonbaeva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Foreign Countries

Foreign trade plays an important role in development of each country. Kyrgyzstan, like other transition economies started to open up to foreign countries after achieving it's independence and began to practice it’s own foreign trade policies. But during a 21-year period, a surplus in the trade balance was recorded in 2000 and 2001. In other words, the country's economy has faced a chronic deficit of foreign trade. The main objective of this paper is to study the impacts of domestic income and exchange rate on imports by considering the period after 2000 through econometric method by using of monthly data and according to the results obtained to suggest policy recommendations.

scholarly journals The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility, Reserve Volatility and Real Interest Rates on Trade: Applications on Transition Economies

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cevat Gerni ◽  
Selahattin Sarı ◽  
Dilek Özdemir ◽  
Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
The Real

On the basis of volatility or sharp fluctuations in macroeconomic variables, especially in the 1970s, it can be said to play a role in deepening the financial capital deepening. Deepening on volatility forms the basis of not only domestic and but also international economic deviations. With the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, a lot of countries have attempted to liberalize. This situation has caused volatility on mainly rate of exchange then many macroeconomics variables. In this aspect, the multi-relationship between volatility in foreign trade balance and the real interest rate, exchange rate and reserves’ volatility are investigated empirically with the appropriate set of data on 11 transition economies for the period 1996-2011. In this study, the effects of the volatility of foreign trade (netxvol) on the exchange rate volatility (kurvol), reserve volatility (rezvol), and real interest rates subjected with using panel data analysis. Moreover to regression analysis, centred on Granger Causality Test the volatility of the foreign trade balance, import and export volatility, exchange rate volatility, volatility of reserves and try to determine the causal relationship between the real interest rate. The findings have light on that the volatility of trade balance was mostly affected to the volatility of the reserve. It may well be said that the volatility of the interest rate and the exchange rate at the independence of the trade predispose to speculative movements.

Financial Marketing-Based Role of Exchange Rate to Increase Foreign Trade in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Özgür Kiyak ◽  
Bilge Afşar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Decrease Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship

This chapter tries to determine whether there is a causal relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The study includes monthly data between February 2003 and December 2018 including dollar foreign exchange selling rate and inflation related real exchange rate for exchange rate, and export amount, import amount, export increase/decrease rate, and import increase. Increase/decrease rate is used for foreign trade among other variables, for a total of 6 variables. According to the obtained results of Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, there is a cointegration between variables in the long run. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, it was understood that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade.

scholarly journals Trends in the Development of Ukraine’s Foreign Trade in Goods in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (519) ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
A. I. Kondratenko ◽  
◽  
D. I. Babmindra ◽  
I. M. Slobodianyk ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Export Structure ◽  
Geographical Structure ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Commodity Export

The article discusses and analyzes the volumes of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2019-2020. A positive trend regarding the foreign trade balance on trade in Ukrainian goods is allocated. It is found that there was a decrease in exports and imports of goods during the researched period. The commodity structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade is analyzed. Changes in the commodity export structure in 2020 compared to 2019 have been identified. The main groups of goods that Ukraine exports and imports the most when trading with foreign countries are allocated. The groups of goods whose export and import volumes have undergone the greatest changes in 2020 and as compared to 2019 are allocated. The geographical structure of foreign trade in Ukrainian goods is analyzed. Changes in the geographical structure of exports in 2020 compared to 2019 are determined. It is specified, which countries are the largest importers of Ukrainian goods and from which countries Ukraine imports the most goods. The countries in terms of the largest changes as to the foreign trade with them in 2020 compared to 2019 are allocated. It is determined that the most important reason for changes in the volume of foreign trade in Ukrainian goods in 2020 compared to 2019 was the COVID-19 pandemic. The global impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy and human life in general is noted. The main changes in the economy and society, which caused changes in the volume of foreign trade in Ukrainian goods, as well as the main reasons for the change in supply and demand, which are typical for all countries of the world, are allocated. The main directions of the State’s assistance to increase the volume of exports of goods from Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are defined. The negative and positive changes in Ukraine’s foreign trade caused by the coronavirus pandemic are characterized.

The Effect of Exchange Rates on Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-10
Author(s):  
Hicham Sadok
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Relationship

Objective - This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in Morocco, to investigate whether the Marshall-Lerner condition and J-curve exist. Methodology/Technique - This paper attempts to identify the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in Morocco between 2000 an 2015. Findings - Historically, exchange rates have had a strong impact on foreign trade in Morocco. Novelty - This study concludes that the fluctuation of exchange rates has no notable impact on the rate of foreign trade. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: Exchange Rates; Trade Balance; Exports; Imports; Morocco. JEL Classification: D51, D59.

scholarly journals The Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine’s Export

2018 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 6-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. V. Golubova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Polymer Materials ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

In the article the author determined the main directions of foreign economic activity of the country and was established that the main course for Ukraine is foreign trade and international investment activity. The author done analysis of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for 2017 shows the passive balance of trade balance. The analyzed indicators of foreign trade balance show that in 2017 Ukraine economy was opened (0.93), i. e. it is risk-prone, import-dependent (46.8%), the share of exports in the total amount of the gross domestic product was 45.8%, the coefficient of coverage the export over import was 98%. The calculated coefficient of the international intraspecific specialization of the country shows that Ukraine is import-dependent from the following groups of goods and services: works of art (–75,5%), polymer materials, plastics and articles (–75,0%), means of land transport, aircraft, floating means (–68.4%), optical and photographic equipment (-59.9%), state and government services (–99.5%), royalties (–83.3 %), financial services (–74.2%). The author was determined and substantiated the factors influencing the tendencies of export development of Ukraine, which were the basis of correlation-regression analysis. The export links with all selected factors based on the pair correlation coefficients are analyzed. A high correlation was found between exports with imports (0.987), a rather close but inverse relationship with the US dollar (–0.887), a significant and direct correlation between export of FDI to Ukraine (0.693) and a noticeable but inverse relationship exports with GDP (–0.693) and consumer price index (–0.690). During the analysis, the author built two regressive models of export dependence from import transactions and under the influence of the exchange rate. The author substantiated the effect of the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate on exports of goods and services, and predicted Ukraine’s exports in the short period.

scholarly journals The influence of the exchange rate on the trade balance of Serbia

Ekonomika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-105
Author(s):  
Vladimir Knežević ◽  
Aleksandra Penjišević
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Independent State ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject of this research is contained in its title. We examined the connection and the influence of the foreign exchange rate on the foreign trade balance of Serbia as an independent state in this century, that is, in the period 2007-2017. The aim was to determine whether the theoretical paradigm applies in concrete terms, and that the decline in the value of the domestic currency leads to an improvement in the balance of payments, given the role of price elasticities of import and export demand as well as the level of domestic consumption. The SPSS software package was used for statistical data processing. The observed variables: foreign exchange foreign trade deficit, the exchange rate, the effective nominal exchange rate and the effective real exchange rate are from the point of view of the Scale type. The data were taken from official sources, primarily from the National Bank of Serbia and the Ministry of Finance of Serbia. The obtained results unequivocally confirm that in specific conditions depreciation of the dinar is favorable to the reduction of the deficit of the foreign trade balance. The basic value of this result is that such a policy should continue if the goal is to improve the liquidity of Serbia in international payments. We conclude that the policy of the exchange rate of the dinar in the observed period was properly conducted, and that within the framework of other measures of economic policy, primarily monetary and fiscal, in that sense, gave satisfactory results. In the paper itself, we first defined the basic concepts related to the types and exchange rate regimes. We have added additional conditions for the effectiveness of this policy in order to improve the balance of external trade. By testing the hypotesess we verified the validity of the initial hypotheses of the research. We concluded that the economic policy in this domain in the mentioned period was conducted with due diligence.

Book Reviews

2004 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-255
Author(s):  
Merdan Halilov ◽  
Zdenek Kudrna ◽  
Judit Kapás
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Central European ◽  
European University

[Book reviews] Winiecki, J.: Transition Economies and Foreign Trade. London and New York: Routledge, 2002, 150 pp.; Olson, M.: Power and Prosperity: Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorship. New York: Basic Books, 2000, 233 pp.; Krizsán, A. - Zentai, V. (eds): Reshaping Globalization - Multilateral Dialogues and New Initiatives. Budapest: Central European University Press, 2003, 327 pp.

EFEK INSTABILITAS NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP PENAWARAN EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA DAN HARGA KOPI DOMESTIK

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-60
Author(s):  
Sandi Aprilla ◽  
Ketut Sukiyono ◽  
M. Mustopa Romdhon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Export Supply ◽  
Coffee Price

This research is to examine the volatility of rupiah exhange rate and  investigate influenced factors to export supply and domestic price of Indonesian Coffee.  Double log model of export supply as proposed by Cerra dan Saxena (2003) and  of domestic price are used in this study. Using three monthly  data of 1990:1 to 2005:4, the result shows that export supply of Indonesian coffee is significantly and positively inflenced by International coffee price and previous export, and negatively influenced by exchange rate instability while domestic price is not.  Domestic price is influenced positively by international coffee price, is not by exchange rate instability.Keywords: Exchange Rate Instability, export supply, domestic price, Coffee.

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