scholarly journals A Discussion on Whether Turkish Economy is in Middle Income Trap or Not: A Perspective on Framework of the Exchange Rates Appreciation

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Nişancı ◽  
Mine Gerni ◽  
Adem Türkmen ◽  
Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Trap

Since 2007 long staying in the middle income group or especially unable to state a higher category, has begun to be considered as middle-income trap (MIT). According to World Bank (WB) classification, in 1955, Turkey reached to lower-middle income countries category from low-income category and staying there about 50 years. In 2004 Turkey has been reached constantly to upper-middle income countries category. However, last three years’ low growth figures and reaching 20% of the US income per capita have created many discussions whether Turkey entered in MIT. Besides, in parallel the integration of Turkish Economy to the world economy and to be exposed financial flows because of the world expansionary policies may result to have excessive appreciation of the national currency and to seem overvalued than real level of GDP in dollars. In emerging artificial bloating in income per capita is a result of undervaluation on the exchange rate. Therefore, in this study; the correct exchange rate is calculated with using base year determined depending on current account deficit’s minimum valued year or years which is assumed correct value of the exchange rate. By using calculated exchange rate, examined new GDP per capita series shows that Turkish economy could not reach the threshold 10000-12000 dollars despite being included in upper-middle income group in the WB classification. Furthermore, according to other classifications which are investigating MIT, it is also reached that Turkey has been placed in MIT long time period due to exchange rate pressures in terms of Turkey reached upper middle income position.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP IN TURKEY

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-348
Author(s):  
Ali Cem ÖZTÜRK ◽  
Burcu YAVUZ TİFTİKÇİGİL
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Middle Income Trap ◽  
Atlas Method

Turkey has been under the middle-income country category according to the income category classification of the World Bank. Turkey promoted to high-middle-income group in 2005 after spending more than 50 years in lower-middle-income group. The purpose of this study is to identify the presence of middle-income trap in Turkey. The study brings together the most recent theoretical studies from different perspectives with respect to the presence of MIT in Turkey along with Robertson and Ye approach in the empirical phase. Within the context of this study, structural break unit root test using current data obtained through the Atlas method is applied in order to evaluate Turkey’s middle-income trap status. The GNI per capita Atlas Method (current US $) data of the World Bank for the years 1967-2016 are used in the study. The empirical analysis briefly showed that Turkey is not in the MIT.

scholarly journals The potential role of aid in escaping the middle-income trap

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 420-441
Author(s):  
Timothy Yaw Acheampong ◽  
Beáta Udvari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Income Status ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Middle Income Trap ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecently, the middle-income trap (MIT) has gained considerable attention – besides European countries, several African, Asian, and Latin-American developing countries are also affected. Many countries have remained in the middle-income bracket for decades, whilst only a few have advanced to high-income status. Felipe et al. in 2012 showed that an annual growth rate of at least 3.5 and 4.7% sustained for a period of 14 and 28 years is required respectively for upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries to escape the MIT. Economic growth is influenced by several factors including foreign aid received. Thus, in this study, we aim to answer the question of how aid affects economic growth in middle-income countries and whether aid may contribute to escaping the MIT. Focusing on the countries that have remained in the middle-income group between 1990 and 2017, our analysis confirms that aid contributes to economic growth; however, the impact is positive in the upper-middle-income countries and negative in the lower-middle-income countries. Aid is therefore, likely to be more effective in helping the upper-middle income countries to escape the MIT but not the lower-middle income countries.

Reform deficit risks middle-income trap for Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Industrial Innovation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Administrative Reforms ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Trap

Subject Economic prospects. Significance With per capita income of some 3,600 dollars, Indonesia is at the lower end of the World Bank's 1,000-12,700 dollar range for middle-income countries. There is growing concern that rising protectionism and uncertainty regarding economic and administrative reforms could impede gains in productivity, innovation and competitiveness. A sustained decline in competitiveness would risk a 'middle-income trap' as investment and growth slow, and incomes stagnate. Impacts Indonesia's inward-looking economic policy risks impeding progress on infrastructure, skills and industrial innovation. Competitors such as Malaysia and Thailand would gain if Indonesia fails to boost its competitiveness. Stagnant education and skills levels carry instability risks given Indonesia's youth bulge.

scholarly journals Global competitiveness divide and the middle-income-trap

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Yaw Acheampong
Keyword(s):  
High Income ◽  
World Economic Forum ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Income Status ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Middle Income Trap

In recent times, the middle-income trap (MIT) has become a pertinent issue as economists, researchers and development practitioners continue seek answers to why the majority of middle-income countries find it difficult to advance to high-income status. There is still no consensus in literature as to the exact cause(s) and the solution to the MIT. The World Economic Forum posits that, the score of countries on the Global Competitive Index (GCI) 4.0 accounts for over 80% of the variation in income levels of countries. This suggests that the extent of global competitiveness of countries could potentially help them to escape the MIT. However, some competitiveness literature have identified an apparent competitiveness divide among countries. This paper therefore seeks to answer the following questions: how does middle-income countries differ from the high-income countries in terms of global competitiveness. The study utilises an independent samples t-test and effect size measures to examine the GCI 4.0 scores of 140 countries. The study finds a very large and significant competitiveness divide between the high and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals Is Greenfield Investment Greener for the Welfare of Lower-Middle Income Countries? Market based Empirical Analysis with GMM Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-206
Author(s):  
Ali Raza ◽  
Muhammad Iqbal ◽  
Nasir Hussian
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
One Step ◽  
Complete Data Analysis

Globalization is considered as the catalyst for the progress of economic activities and economic development of lower-middle-income countries. Greenfield investment not only promotes welfare but also helps in the health and education sector of these countries. This study examined thirty-four (34) sampled countries of the lower-middle-income group from different regions for a time span of 1998-2017. Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) test is applied for testing panel unit root and one step system GMM technique is applied for the complete data analysis. The results of the study concluded that greenfield investment has increased economic growth and helped to push the welfare activities of sampled countries. Besides the increase in economic growth and welfare, greenfield investment also brings improvement in the health and education sectors through the transfer of new and advanced technologies from the developed nation firms to the host countries. Therefore, lower-middle-income countries must approve soft and friendly economic and business policies for the attraction of foreign investors from abroad. Such policies will help in promoting and increasing economic activities and economic development of the sampled countries.

scholarly journals Economic Polarization in Madhya Pradesh: A District Wise Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-164
Author(s):  
Rekha Acharya ◽  
Sweksha mahendra Khobragade
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Per Capita Consumption

Economic polarization among different regions is common phenomenon in literature and it results into unequal growth and income inequalities within regions. Economists points out that whenever economies achieve higher growth they presumed that it would automatically trickle down to poor. Anderson (1964) and Aaron (1977) pointed out that there is an inverse relationship between economic growth and income distribution. So in this present paper we analyze economic polarization in Madhya Pradesh over the two decades 2000 and 2011 using per capita consumption expenditure (PCCE) and work participation rate (WPR). We show that multidimensional polarization (on rural-urban and region) has increased since the 2000. Overall, our results suggest that high growth witnessed by Madhya Pradesh since the bifurcation of it in the year 2000 has been associated with widening disparities within districts. Out of total 50 districts, same 15 numbers of districts is in high and middle income group and 20 are in low income group. Comparing MPCE and WPR trends, we find similarities but also some differences; our study contributes to the study of polarization in one of the grooming Bimaru state.      

scholarly journals ANALISIS MIDDLE INCOME TRAP DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Asmirawati Asmirawati
Keyword(s):  
Capita Income ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Trap

This paper aims to analyze middle income trap in Indonesia where per capita income is the main indicator in determining whether a country is included in the middle income category or not. By looking at the effect of high technology products , education level, direct investment and dependent ratio on per capita income in Indonesia. The results of this model use the ordinary least square method, which shows that the export of high-tech products has a positive and significant effect on per capita income, the level of education has a positive and significant effect on per capita income, direct investment has a negative and significant effect on per capita income, the ratio has a positive and significant effect. income per capita and high-tech product exports, level of education, direct investment, and the ratio have a significant effect on income per capita in Indonesia.

The Economic Fitness of Nations in Value Added. 2000-2014

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Cervantes-Martinez ◽  
Jorge Villaseñor-Becerra
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract In this paper, we explore the Economic Fitness (EF) indicator from the World Bank Database that measures nations' level of international competitiveness. At the same time, using input-output tables, we present our estimations of this new metric, replacing the revealed comparative advantages (RCA) from exports in gross value with an estimate of RCA from exports in domestic value-added (DVA). We find that between 1995 and 2015, there is a positive relationship between Economic Fitness and per capita GDP for low and middle-income countries. Besides, from 2000 to 2014, there has been a widening gap between global exports in gross value and exports in value-added; we also show that the estimations of the EF using the domestic value-added content of exports change significantly. Suggesting that, given the increasing levels of productive links at the international level, the competitiveness of nations is also conditioned by the way they participate in global production networks.

Trapped in the Middle?

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Income Status ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Analytical Approaches ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Global Population

There is growing evidence that overcoming the low-income threshold and reaching middle-income status is not sufficient for countries to converge toward high-income levels. Few middle-income countries have successfully completed that transit in recent decades, with the majority remaining in the middle-income group, and so facing what has come to be called"the middle-income trap". It is therefore essential to explore whether middle-income traps really exist and, if they do, how these pitfalls are manifested, what their causes are, what economic policy measures are required to escape from them, and what international cooperation can do to support this process. Trapped in the Middle? brings together diverse perspectives on these important questions, providing new evidence and analytical approaches to enrich the debate on the domestic and international challenges faced by a significant number of middle-income countries, in which over three-quarters of the global population live.

scholarly journals Drop out from out-patient mental healthcare in the World Health Organization's World Menta Health Survey initiative

2013 ◽  
Vol 202 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Elisabeth Wells ◽  
Mark Oakley Browne ◽  
Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola ◽  
Ali Al-Hamzawi ◽  
Jordi Alonso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Treatment ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Treatment ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World

BackgroundPrevious community surveys of the drop out from mental health treatment have been carried out only in the USA and Canada.AimsTo explore mental health treatment drop out in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.MethodRepresentative face-to-face household surveys were conducted among adults in 24 countries. People who reported mental health treatment in the 12 months before interview (n = 8482) were asked about drop out, defined as stopping treatment before the provider wanted.ResultsOverall, drop out was 31.7%: 26.3% in high-income countries, 45.1% in upper-middle-income countries, and 37.6% in low/ lower/middle-income countries. Drop out from psychiatrists was 21.3% overall and similar across country income groups (high 20.3%, upper-middle 23.6%, low/lower-middle 23.8%) but the pattern of drop out across other sectors differed by country income group. Drop out was more likely early in treatment, particularly after the second visit.ConclusionsDrop out needs to be reduced to ensure effective treatment.

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