scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP IN TURKEY

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-348
Author(s):  
Ali Cem ÖZTÜRK ◽  
Burcu YAVUZ TİFTİKÇİGİL
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Middle Income Trap ◽  
Atlas Method

Turkey has been under the middle-income country category according to the income category classification of the World Bank. Turkey promoted to high-middle-income group in 2005 after spending more than 50 years in lower-middle-income group. The purpose of this study is to identify the presence of middle-income trap in Turkey. The study brings together the most recent theoretical studies from different perspectives with respect to the presence of MIT in Turkey along with Robertson and Ye approach in the empirical phase. Within the context of this study, structural break unit root test using current data obtained through the Atlas method is applied in order to evaluate Turkey’s middle-income trap status. The GNI per capita Atlas Method (current US $) data of the World Bank for the years 1967-2016 are used in the study. The empirical analysis briefly showed that Turkey is not in the MIT.

scholarly journals A Discussion on Whether Turkish Economy is in Middle Income Trap or Not: A Perspective on Framework of the Exchange Rates Appreciation

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Nişancı ◽  
Mine Gerni ◽  
Adem Türkmen ◽  
Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Trap

Since 2007 long staying in the middle income group or especially unable to state a higher category, has begun to be considered as middle-income trap (MIT). According to World Bank (WB) classification, in 1955, Turkey reached to lower-middle income countries category from low-income category and staying there about 50 years. In 2004 Turkey has been reached constantly to upper-middle income countries category. However, last three years’ low growth figures and reaching 20% of the US income per capita have created many discussions whether Turkey entered in MIT. Besides, in parallel the integration of Turkish Economy to the world economy and to be exposed financial flows because of the world expansionary policies may result to have excessive appreciation of the national currency and to seem overvalued than real level of GDP in dollars. In emerging artificial bloating in income per capita is a result of undervaluation on the exchange rate. Therefore, in this study; the correct exchange rate is calculated with using base year determined depending on current account deficit’s minimum valued year or years which is assumed correct value of the exchange rate. By using calculated exchange rate, examined new GDP per capita series shows that Turkish economy could not reach the threshold 10000-12000 dollars despite being included in upper-middle income group in the WB classification. Furthermore, according to other classifications which are investigating MIT, it is also reached that Turkey has been placed in MIT long time period due to exchange rate pressures in terms of Turkey reached upper middle income position.

scholarly journals DOES MIDDLE INCOME TRAP EXIST?: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES: E7 COUNTRIES FOR 1969-2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Burcu YAVUZ TIFTIKÇIGIL ◽  
Burak GÜRIŞ ◽  
Yaşar Serhat YAŞGÜL
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Category ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Middle Income Trap

The E7 countries (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey)that have been growing fast since 1990s have been under the middle income countrycategory according to the income category classification of the World Bank for a longperiod of time. Researchers have been interested especially in emerging economies thathave not been able to move up from the middle income category to the high incomecategory and this has led to the initiation of what’s called the ‘middle income trap’ (MIT)discussions in literature. The MIT is generally defined as the countries under the middleincome category failing to move up to the high income category. Therefore, the purpose ofthis study is to identify the presence of MIT in E7 countries that hold an importantposition in global economy. The unit root tests were used in the empirical phase of thestudy. This study’s difference from other studies is the fact that both the time series andthe panel data unit root tests were used both in linear and nonlinear forms, thuspreventing the misleading results created by choosing the wrong model specification.The USA was taken as the reference country in the study and the GNI per capitaaccording to the Atlas method (current US$) data of the World Bank was used for the E7countries for the period 1969-2015. To achieve consistency in the analysis results, Russiawas not included in the model as there were no data available for the same period forRussia given the fact that the same timeframe should be taken as the basis for allcountries. The empirical analysis showed that the E7 countries do not fall into the MIT.

scholarly journals Population cluster data to assess the urban-rural split and electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Khavari ◽  
Alexandros Korkovelos ◽  
Andreas Sahlberg ◽  
Mark Howells ◽  
Francesco Fuso Nerini
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Disease Response ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Urban Rural

AbstractHuman settlements are usually nucleated around manmade central points or distinctive natural features, forming clusters that vary in shape and size. However, population distribution in geo-sciences is often represented in the form of pixelated rasters. Rasters indicate population density at predefined spatial resolutions, but are unable to capture the actual shape or size of settlements. Here we suggest a methodology that translates high-resolution raster population data into vector-based population clusters. We use open-source data and develop an open-access algorithm tailored for low and middle-income countries with data scarcity issues. Each cluster includes unique characteristics indicating population, electrification rate and urban-rural categorization. Results are validated against national electrification rates provided by the World Bank and data from selected Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We find that our modeled national electrification rates are consistent with the rates reported by the World Bank, while the modeled urban/rural classification has 88% accuracy. By delineating settlements, this dataset can complement existing raster population data in studies such as energy planning, urban planning and disease response.

scholarly journals The potential role of aid in escaping the middle-income trap

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 420-441
Author(s):  
Timothy Yaw Acheampong ◽  
Beáta Udvari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Income Status ◽  
Middle Income Group ◽  
Middle Income Trap ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecently, the middle-income trap (MIT) has gained considerable attention – besides European countries, several African, Asian, and Latin-American developing countries are also affected. Many countries have remained in the middle-income bracket for decades, whilst only a few have advanced to high-income status. Felipe et al. in 2012 showed that an annual growth rate of at least 3.5 and 4.7% sustained for a period of 14 and 28 years is required respectively for upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries to escape the MIT. Economic growth is influenced by several factors including foreign aid received. Thus, in this study, we aim to answer the question of how aid affects economic growth in middle-income countries and whether aid may contribute to escaping the MIT. Focusing on the countries that have remained in the middle-income group between 1990 and 2017, our analysis confirms that aid contributes to economic growth; however, the impact is positive in the upper-middle-income countries and negative in the lower-middle-income countries. Aid is therefore, likely to be more effective in helping the upper-middle income countries to escape the MIT but not the lower-middle income countries.

scholarly journals Mainstreaming as rhetoric or reality? Gender and global health at the World Bank

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Janelle Winters ◽  
Genevie Fernandes ◽  
Lauren McGivern ◽  
Devi Sridhar
Keyword(s):  
Global Health ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Gender Mainstreaming ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Gender Policy ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Gender Policies

Background:Over the past decade gender mainstreaming has gained visibility at global health organisations. The World Bank, one of the largest funders of global health activities, released twoWorld Development Reportsshowcasing its gender policies, and recently announced a $1 billion initiative for women’s entrepreneurship. However, the development of the Bank’s gender policies and its financing for gender programmes have never been systematically analysed by external researchers in the context of global health. We use the Bank as a case study of how global health organisations frame their gender policies and measure their success.Methods:We constructed a timeline of the Bank’s governance of gender, through a review of published articles, grey literature, and Bank documents and reports. Additionally, we performed the first health-focused analysis of two publicly available Bank gender project databases, and tracked the Bank's financing of gender projects in the health sector from 1985-2017.Results:The Bank’s gender policy developed through four major phases from 1972-2017: ‘women in development’ (WID), institutionalisation of WID, gender mainstreaming, and gender equality through ‘smart economics’. In the more inclusive of the two Bank project databases, gender projects comprised between 1.3% (1985-1989) and 6.2% (2010-2016) of all Bank commitments, which is significantly less than the Bank’s claim that 98% of its lending is gender informed. Most funding targeted middle-income countries and particular themes, including communicable diseases and health systems. Major gender-related trust funds were absent from both databases.Conclusion:The Bank focused most of its health sector gender projects on women’s and girls’ issues. It is increasingly embracing private sector financing of its gender activities, which may impact its poverty alleviation agenda. Measuring the success of gender mainstreaming in global health will require the Bank and global health organisations to reconsider their use of gender indicators.

The Economic Fitness of Nations in Value Added. 2000-2014

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Cervantes-Martinez ◽  
Jorge Villaseñor-Becerra
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract In this paper, we explore the Economic Fitness (EF) indicator from the World Bank Database that measures nations' level of international competitiveness. At the same time, using input-output tables, we present our estimations of this new metric, replacing the revealed comparative advantages (RCA) from exports in gross value with an estimate of RCA from exports in domestic value-added (DVA). We find that between 1995 and 2015, there is a positive relationship between Economic Fitness and per capita GDP for low and middle-income countries. Besides, from 2000 to 2014, there has been a widening gap between global exports in gross value and exports in value-added; we also show that the estimations of the EF using the domestic value-added content of exports change significantly. Suggesting that, given the increasing levels of productive links at the international level, the competitiveness of nations is also conditioned by the way they participate in global production networks.

On the Role of Big Business in the Modern Russian Economy (A Comment on the World Bank Report)

2004 ◽  
pp. 36-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
A. Yakovlev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
World Bank Report ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Economy ◽  
And Control

The paper considers critically the methodology and main conclusions of the World Bank study on the concentration of ownership and control in the Russian economy. The authors discuss methodological problems of the study and stress its importance for understanding trends of economic development in Russia in the last years. At the same time the risks of market monopolization and "state capture" by the biggest private companies are overestimated in the World Bank report. Recent economic growth has been closely connected with the activity of leading financial-industrial groups. For successful economic development Russia — as a big country but a small economy — needs new large companies able to compete in the global market. For "growing" of such businesses the country requires institutions of development and new industrial policy taking into account successful experience of the middle-income countries like Chile, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea.

More money will boost World Bank's development role

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Low Income ◽  
National Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Bank Group ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World

Subject Spending the World Bank capital increase Significance The shareholders of the World Bank Group (WBG) agreed to a negotiated financial and policy package at the April 2018 bi-annual meeting. The proposed 13-billion-dollar paid-in capital increase will be the largest on record. Although the United States will not participate in the increase, Chinese and US concessions enabled the grand bargain, signalling the resilience of multilateralism in global development. Impacts The deal will significantly benefit China as a shareholder but will be to its detriment as a World Bank borrower. Financing will become cheaper and more plentiful for middle-income countries of below 6,895 dollars gross national income (GNI) per capita. Private investors will gradually gain access to more WBG instruments and to new markets in low-income and fragile countries.

scholarly journals Policy Watch: Debt Relief

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serkan Arslanalp ◽  
Peter Blair Henry
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Low Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

At the Gleneagles summit in July 2005, the heads of state from the G-8 countries—the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom—called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the African Development Bank to cancel 100 percent of their debt claims on the world's poorest countries. The world's richest countries have agreed in principle to forgive roughly $55 billion dollars owed by the world's poorest nations. This article considers the wisdom of the proposal for debt forgiveness, from the standpoint of stimulating economic growth in highly indebted countries. In the 1980s, debt relief under the “Brady Plan” helped to restore investment and growth in a number of middle-income developing countries. However, the debt relief plan for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) launched by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 1996 has had little impact on either investment or growth in the recipient countries. We will explore the key differences between the countries targeted by these two debt relief schemes and argue that the Gleneagles proposal for debt relief is, at best, likely to have little effect at all. Debt relief is unlikely to help the world's poorest countries because, unlike the middle-income Brady countries, their main economic difficulty is not debt overhang, but an absence of functional economic institutions that provide the foundation for profitable investment and growth. We will show that debt relief may be more valuable for Brady-like middle-income countries than for low-income ones because of how it leverages the private sector.

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