scholarly journals The risk assessment of a crude oil pipeline using fuzzy and bayesian based bow-tie analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jishin Jayan T ◽  
◽  
Muthukumar K ◽  
Renjith V.R. ◽  
Priscilla George ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Effective Dynamic ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Bow Tie

Cross country pipelines are one of the major modes of transportation of petroleum products. Due to external and internal factors, the failure probability of pipeline is increasing over the past decades. The failure of pipelines can cause fires, which can result in environmental damage, loss of materials and further resulting into casualties. Effective risk assessment is vital to prevent and mitigate such potential incidents. In this work, an efficient tool that makes use of Bayesian approach along with Bow-tie analysis is used to obtain the failure frequencies of all the identified causes that may lead to failure of the selected pipeline located in Kerala, India. Bayesian networks can perform effective dynamic risk analysis by considering the conditional dependencies between various basic events leading to pipeline failure. The fuzzy logic and expert elicitation method are incorporated to determine the prior failure frequencies of all the identified causes of pipeline failure. The effectiveness of Bayesian network in performing forward analysis to determine the probabilities of pipeline failure consequences is demonstrated. This study also identifies the weak links associated with the occurrence of particular consequences, so that adequate measures can be taken to rectify them.

Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 101-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireda Aljaroudi ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Ayhan Akinturk ◽  
Mahmoud Haddara ◽  
Premkumar Thodi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Failure

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Petroleum Products Loading Arm by BTA Technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa Mirzaei Aliabadi ◽  
Iraj Mohammadfam ◽  
Samane Khorshidikia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Risk Event ◽  
Bow Tie

Background: Loading of petroleum products consists of several parts, of which the arm platform section is known to be the source of most accidents. Objectives: Therefore, this study was done to evaluate the risk of arm loading platforms using the bow-tie analysis (BTA) technique to identify the causes and the probability of occurrence of hazardous events. Methods: In this study, we first identified the risks of the loading arm using the expert’s judgment. The risk of overflow is considered as the top event. Then, the basic events were identified by the fault tree analysis (FTA), and the possible consequences of the top event were predicted using the event tree. Next, using the computational equations, the probability of spillover and its consequences were calculated. The path of the risk event from the causal phase to the consequent phase was also illustrated by sketching the structure of the BTA. Results: A total of 14 basic events and 8 intermediate events were involved in the occurrence of the top event, and 5 consequences were identified for the risk of spillover. The probability of the top event occurring was calculated to be 3.12 × 10-7. Conclusions: According to the results of this study, tank overflow is one of the most important hazards in the loading arm section.

Improvement of legislation in the field of development and approval of plans for the prevention and elimination of oil spillage and spills of petroleum products at the facilities of main pipelines

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 654-662
Author(s):  
Andrey V. Zakharchenko ◽  
◽  
Alexander E. Gonchar ◽  
Roman Y. Shestakov ◽  
Polina V. Pugacheva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Pipeline Transport ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Oil Spillage ◽  
Trunk Pipeline ◽  
Main Pipelines ◽  
The Us ◽  
Improvement Of Legislation ◽  
Main Oil Pipeline

The procedure for action in cases of a threat or an accident at oil pipeline transport facilities is defined in the relevant plans for emergency spillage prevention and response – ESPR. The purpose of the article is to analyze the requirements of the legislation in the field of development and approval of ESPR. The specifics of ESRP development at trunk pipeline facilities in Russia are noted, the US experience in combating oil and oil products spillage is presented. The problematic issues in the development and approval of ESRP, relevant for the domestic system of main oil pipeline transport, have been considered. It was established that the Federal Law No. 207-FL, adopted in July 2020, fundamentally changed the outdated and required revision approach to the coordination and approval of ESRP. At the same time, further work is needed to create a regulatory framework that establishes requirements for ESRP, as well as to improve ESRP, taking into account modern methods of predicting accidents, identifying emergencies, risk-oriented approaches to planning measures to localize and eliminate accidents, the specifics of operating organizations.

Comparison of Human Health and Safety Loss due to Corroded Gas Pipeline Failure in Rural and Urban Areas: A Case Study in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 227 ◽  
pp. 221-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhamimi Mohd Hanafiah ◽  
Libriati Zardasti ◽  
Yahaya Nordin ◽  
Norhazilan Md Noor ◽  
Ahmad A. Safuan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
Consequence Assessment ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Pipeline Failure

Consequence assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment process. There are many types of consequences loss due to pipeline failure such as asset loss, environmental loss, production loss, and human health and safety loss (HHSL). This paper studies the comparison of HHSL between rural and urban areas due to pipeline failure subject to corrosion. The damage area of the explosion was calculated using Aloha software by considering the details of the selected sites such as atmospheric and topographical conditions. The HHSL was calculated using a mathematical equation of quantitative risk assessment in terms of the number of fatalities or injuries or both. The results of the assessments from rural and urban areas were then compared with one another to identify any significant dissimilarity. This study shows that there was a possibility to improve the decisive value of risk by implementing the proposed approach in consequence assessment in Malaysia.

Applying the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to Improve Safety Management of Oil and Gas Pipeline Stations in China

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxing Feng ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xiang ◽  
Guangming Jia ◽  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Yulei Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Oil Pipeline

The oil and gas pipeline companies in China are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges because of China’s increasing demand for oil and gas energy that is attributed to rapid economic and social development. Limitation of land resource and the fast urbanization lead to a determinate result that many pipelines have to go through or be adjacent to highly populated areas such as cities or towns. The increasing Chinese government regulation, and public concerns about industrial safety and environmental protection push the pipeline companies to enhance the safety, health and environmental protection management. In recent years, PetroChina Pipeline Company (PPC) pays a lot of attention and effort to improve employees and public safety around the pipeline facilities. A comprehensive, integrated HSE management system is continuously improved and effectively implemented in PPC. PPC conducts hazard identification, risk assessment, risk control and mitigation, risk monitoring. For the oil and gas stations in highly populated area or with numerous employees, PPC carries out quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to evaluate and manage the population risk. To make the assessment, “Guidelines for quantitative risk assessments” (purple book) published by Committee for the Prevention of Disasters of Netherlands is used along with a software package. The basic principles, process, and methods of QRA technology are introduced in this article. The process is to identify the station hazards, determinate the failure scenarios of the facilities, estimate the possibilities of leakage failures, calculate the consequences of failures and damages to population, demonstrate the individual risk and social risk, and evaluate whether the risk is acceptable. The process may involve the mathematical modeling of fluid and gas spill, dispersion, fire and explosion. One QRA case in an oil pipeline station is described in this article to illustrate the application process and discuss several key issues in the assessment. Using QRA technique, about 20 stations have been evaluated in PPC. On the basis of the results, managers have taken prevention and mitigation plans to control the risk. QRAs in the pipeline station can provide a quantitative basis and valuable reference for the company’s decision-making and land use planning. Also, QRA can play a role to make a better relationship between the pipeline companies and the local regulator and public. Finally, this article delivers limitations of QRA in Chinese pipeline stations and discusses issues of the solutions.

Consideration of Non-stationarity in the Development of Emergency Situations for the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Accidents at Hazardous Production Facilities of Oil and Product Pipelines

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
A.M. Sverchkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Ignition Time ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Hazardous Production ◽  
Real Practice

It is proposed to use the new approach to assessing quantitative risk indicators. This approach allows to consider the temporal non-stationarity of the number of processes, including the development of an accident and the spatial movements of people. The greatest uncertainty in the risk analysis with an explosive and fire hazard component is not the frequency of initiating events used, but, for example, data on the probability of ignition. The range of variation of this probability is about two orders of magnitude (relatively speaking, from 1 % to 100 %), and the criteria and factors that determine the choice of this value are not always clearly defined. The paper proposes an approach that considers the probability of ignition as a dependence on the time that passed after the start of emergency depressurization. Knowing this dependence, it is possible to consider several scenarios with different ignition time after the start of the release and assign certain consequences and probabilities to each scenario. Moreover, it is possible for each single scenario on a specific piece of equipment (pipeline section) to obtain non-stationary, namely time-varying potential risk fields. The example of an accident on the oil pipeline is considered, the risk indicators of such an accident are calculated, it is shown that the risks can change over time, namely they are non-stationary characteristics. Further, this fact is transformed into the development of theoretical foundations for quantitative risk assessment, considering the non-stationarity of various processes occurring during emergency situations arising during the operation of equipment, individual behavior of people and changes in external conditions. The results obtained show the importance of considering the changes that occur during an emergency on the main oil and product pipelines. It is concluded that the proposed approach allows to reduce the conservatism of assessments provided by traditional methods. In real practice this approach can reasonably reduce the risk indicators by several times, sometimes by orders of magnitude.

scholarly journals OBTAINING OF HYDRO-INSULATION MATERIALS, PENETRANTS AND OTHER DEFICIENT LOW- TONNAGE PRODUCTS FROM PETROLEUM

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guram Khitiri ◽  
Raul Kokilashvili ◽  
Tinatin Gabunia ◽  
Madona Tsurtsumia
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Glass ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
The South ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Insulation Materials ◽  
The Cost

Hydro-insulation of building constructions, different purpose structures is one of the most important and urgent problems of the present day. Currently concrete, ferroconcrete, metal and wooden materials are used for this purpose. Materials of this kind are not produced in the South Caucasian region. Their import, transportation, clearance by the customs and other expenses significantly increase the cost of buildings and makes it unprofitable to use them. Excreted from petroleum products – paraffins and cerezines, petrolatum, luminophores and various purpose binders, can become profitable basis for obtaining of moderm hydroinsulation materials. Their inclusion in modern hydroinsulation compositions will help to increase quality of these materials and to decrease their cost. By mixing of the goudron obtained as a result of rectification of oil pipeline sediments with milled secondary tyre casting, liquid glass, quarz sand and several additives – new hydroinsulation material was obtained.

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