scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation in Predicting the Level of Culinary Sales Revenue (Case Study at Radja Minas Padang)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ihksan ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
High Level ◽  
The City

Radja Minas is one of the culinary places located in the city of Padang with more than 30 employees. With the development of Radja Minas, of course, a good management strategy is needed. One way to do a revenue simulation, sales revenue simulation is a process of drawing or predicting sales. This study aims to predict the average sales revenue, so that it becomes a recommendation for use in making management strategies. The data processed in this research is sales data from 2017 to 2019 which comes from Radja Minas. This data will be processed using the monte Carlo method. The results of the tests that have been done have an accuracy rate of 92.66%. The high level of accuracy from the results of predictive data processing, this research is very precise and suitable for optimizing sales revenue. So that this research becomes a recommendation to be used in making a management strategy at Radja Minas in the future.

scholarly journals Analysis of the economic viability of a rural tourism enterprise in Brazil: an application of the Monte Carlo Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues Amorim ◽  
Bianca Regina Ferreira Silveira ◽  
Edilene Alves Dos Santos ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu ◽  
Juliana Rosa Tostes
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The City

The acquisition of projects aimed at rural tourism represents an alternative for generating income. The objective of this study was to evaluate the viability of purchasing a farm that is structured as a hostel, located in Joanópolis, interior of São Paulo, Brazil. The method was based on exploratory research based on a case study comparing the economic viability of this project. However, this viability is surrounded by uncertainties and risks. With this, the Monte Carlo method was used to analyze this probability. The data were obtained through the Department of Tourism in the city of Joanópolis from primary and secondary data. The calculations were made for work during a year drawn up in a cash flow with the monthly expenses of the hostel. From the results it was concluded that it is feasible to buy this hostel in the real and optimistic scenario and in the Monte Carlo method analyzing the project’s total NPV values

scholarly journals Technical-Economic Analysis of Grapple Saw

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Hideaki Miyajima ◽  
Paulo Torres Fenner ◽  
Gislaine Cristina Batistela ◽  
Danilo Simões
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Forest Harvesting ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Wood Harvesting ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The processing of Eucalyptus logs is a stage that follows the full tree system in mechanized forest harvesting, commonly performed by grapple saw. Therefore, this activity presents some associated uncertainties, especially regarding technical and silvicultural factors that can affect productivity and production costs. To get around this problem, Monte Carlo simulation can be applied, or rather a technique that allows to measure the probabilities of values from factors that are under conditions of uncertainties, to which probability distributions are attributed. The objective of this study was to apply the Monte Carlo method for determining the probabilistic technical-economical coefficients of log processing using two different grapple saw models. Field data were obtained from an area of forest planted with Eucalyptus, located in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. For the technical analysis, the time study protocol was applied by the method of continuous reading of the operational cycle elements, which resulted in production. As for the estimated cost of programmed hour, the applied methods were recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The incorporation of the uncertainties was carried out by applying the Monte Carlo simulation method, by which 100,000 random values were generated. The results showed that the crane empty movement is the operational element that most impacts the total time for processing the logs; the variables that most influence the productivity are specific to each grapple saw model; the difference of USD 0.04 m3 in production costs was observed between processors with gripping area of 0.58 m2 and 0.85 m2. The Monte Carlo method proved to be an applicable tool for mechanized wood harvesting for presenting a range of probability of occurrences for the operational elements and for the production cost.

scholarly journals Análise dos Riscos em Projetos: Uma Aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo em uma Empresa do Setor Moveleiro

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-357
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues de Amorim ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu ◽  
Marco Tulio Ospina Patino ◽  
Leonardo Augusto Amaral Terra
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Em ◽  
A Company

Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment.

Evaluation of congress performance and congress attendees' satisfaction - a case study of Novi Sad (Serbia)

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-78
Author(s):  
Vanja Dragićević ◽  
Uglješa Stankov ◽  
Tanja Armenski ◽  
Snežana Štetić
Keyword(s):  
Destination Choice ◽  
International Meeting ◽  
International Industry ◽  
High Level ◽  
Novi Sad ◽  
Destination Management Organizations ◽  
Intention To Return ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City

The congress industry is a young, dynamic industry, which is growing and maturing at a rapid rate. It is now a truly international industry, witnessing huge investments across all continents. Due to economic and other benefits of a more intangible nature, the number of congress destinations and venues worldwide is growing. In order to provide the sustainability of congress destinations and venues, it is important to examine congress delegates’ experience, their overall satisfaction as well as behavioural intentions regarding destination. This study was conducted in the city of Novi Sad, which is after Belgrade the most important international meeting destination in Serbia. The purpose of this study is to examine the experience and overall satisfaction of the attendees at international congresses held in Novi Sad. Also, the relationship between overall satisfaction, word-of-mouth and intention to return were examined. A questionnaire survey was used as an instrument for the study. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS standard package. The results showed high level of attendees’ satisfaction with the congress elements and with destination choice. Also, the results confirmed that Novi Sad has a great potential for development of congress tourism, as the majority of the respondents show great interest to visit Novi Sad again and they would recommend city as a meeting destination. The results of this study are valuable for congress centre managers and for destination management organizations.

scholarly journals Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Consider Probabilistic Effects in a Race Simulation for Circuit Motorsport

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Heilmeier ◽  
Michael Graf ◽  
Johannes Betz ◽  
Markus Lienkamp
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Random Events ◽  
Example Variability

Applying an optimal race strategy is a decisive factor in achieving the best possible result in a motorsport race. This mainly implies timing the pit stops perfectly and choosing the optimal tire compounds. Strategy engineers use race simulations to assess the effects of different strategic decisions (e.g., early vs. late pit stop) on the race result before and during a race. However, in reality, races rarely run as planned and are often decided by random events, for example, accidents that cause safety car phases. Besides, the course of a race is affected by many smaller probabilistic influences, for example, variability in the lap times. Consequently, these events and influences should be modeled within the race simulation if real races are to be simulated, and a robust race strategy is to be determined. Therefore, this paper presents how state of the art and new approaches can be combined to modeling the most important probabilistic influences on motorsport races—accidents and failures, full course yellow and safety car phases, the drivers’ starting performance, and variability in lap times and pit stop durations. The modeling is done using customized probability distributions as well as a novel “ghost” car approach, which allows the realistic consideration of the effect of safety cars within the race simulation. The interaction of all influences is evaluated based on the Monte Carlo method. The results demonstrate the validity of the models and show how Monte Carlo simulation enables assessing the robustness of race strategies. Knowing the robustness improves the basis for a reasonable determination of race strategies by strategy engineers.

Secondary Fluorescence of 3D Heterogeneous Materials Using a Hybrid Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 484-496
Author(s):  
Yu Yuan ◽  
Hendrix Demers ◽  
Xianglong Wang ◽  
Raynald Gauvin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Heterogeneous Materials ◽  
X Ray ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Secondary Fluorescence ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractIn electron probe microanalysis or scanning electron microscopy, the Monte Carlo method is widely used for modeling electron transport within specimens and calculating X-ray spectra. For an accurate simulation, the calculation of secondary fluorescence (SF) is necessary, especially for samples with complex geometries. In this study, we developed a program, using a hybrid model that combines the Monte Carlo simulation with an analytical model, to perform SF correction for three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneous materials. The Monte Carlo simulation is performed using MC X-ray, a Monte Carlo program, to obtain the 3D primary X-ray distribution, which becomes the input of the analytical model. The voxel-based calculation of MC X-ray enables the model to be applicable to arbitrary samples. We demonstrate the derivation of the analytical model in detail and present the 3D X-ray distributions for both primary and secondary fluorescence to illustrate the capability of our program. Examples for non-diffusion couples and spherical inclusions inside matrices are shown. The results of our program are compared with experimental data from references and with results from other Monte Carlo codes. They are found to be in good agreement.

scholarly journals C-beta energy converter efficiency modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 02012
Author(s):  
Oleg Kuznetsov ◽  
Viktor Chepurnov ◽  
Albina Gurskaya ◽  
Mikhail Dolgopolov ◽  
Sali Radzhapov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Equivalent Circuits ◽  
Optimal Parameters ◽  
Energy Converter ◽  
Electron Hole ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

To construct beta converters with maximum efficiency it is necessary to carry out the theoretical calculation in order to determine their optimal parameters - the geometry of the structure, the thickness of the deposition of the radioisotope layer, the depth and the width of the p-n junction, and others. To date, many different theoretical models and calculations methods had been proposed. There are fairly simple theoretical models based on the Bethe-Bloch formula and the calculation of the rate of generation of electron-hole pairs, and on calculations by equivalent circuits. Also, the Monte-Carlo method is used for theoretical modeling of beta converters. This paper explores beta converter optimization using the Monte-Carlo method. The purpose of the study is to conduct Monte-Carlo simulation of the beta converter to determine its optimal parameters.

GEOTECHNICAL PROCESSES AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR MATURE BASINS: A CASE STUDY OF THE GIPPSLAND BASIN

1996 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 691
Author(s):  
A.W. Djakic
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
Geophysical Interpretation ◽  
Disciplinary Field ◽  
Exploitation And Exploration ◽  
Geotechnical Information ◽  
High Level ◽  
Gippsland Basin ◽  
Exploration Activity

During the 1990s, exploitation and exploration processes in the Gippsland Basin have been expanded to cater to a surge in mature field redevelopment activity, and have supported continued activity in the more traditional functions of exploration and development of new resources.The first major field redevelopment project was initiated in 1991 on the West Kingfish Field. Since 1991, similar programs conducted on the Mackerel, Perch, Fortescue and Kingfish Fields have significantly mitigated oil production decline in the basin. The success of the field redevelopment programs has been attributed to the use of multi-disciplinary field teams, the use of high end geophysical interpretation technologies, and the ability of the field teams to integrate and synthesise often voluminous quantities of production and geotechnical information to identify drilling opportunities.Areas where we continue to improve field redevelopment geotechnical processes include decreasing data acquisition and analysis cycle time, and advancing the precision of geotechnical predictions.With over 30 years of intensive exploration activity in the Gippsland Basin placing it in a mature phase of development, focus on the risk management of exploration activities has increased. Focussed research efforts to both develop new geotechnical technologies and more accurately assess the limitations of currently utilised technologies have also been undertaken to ensure an economically viable exploitation and exploration strategy for the basin.The structure of geotechnical teams in the 1990s has seen production and exploration functions amalgamate to ensure that the benefits of operations synergies provided by the high level of platform drilling activity are fully realised. This is enabling the knowledge from intensive field drilling programs to be more readily applied to the evaluation of exploration opportunities. Field re-development drilling activities are at historically high levels and are predicted to remain so into the foreseeable future. Given the mature nature of exploration in the basin, future exploration activities will be undertaken within the defined limits of our technologies to ensure the opportunity to achieve continued economic success is maximised.

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