scholarly journals Analysis of the economic viability of a rural tourism enterprise in Brazil: an application of the Monte Carlo Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues Amorim ◽  
Bianca Regina Ferreira Silveira ◽  
Edilene Alves Dos Santos ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu ◽  
Juliana Rosa Tostes
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The City

The acquisition of projects aimed at rural tourism represents an alternative for generating income. The objective of this study was to evaluate the viability of purchasing a farm that is structured as a hostel, located in Joanópolis, interior of São Paulo, Brazil. The method was based on exploratory research based on a case study comparing the economic viability of this project. However, this viability is surrounded by uncertainties and risks. With this, the Monte Carlo method was used to analyze this probability. The data were obtained through the Department of Tourism in the city of Joanópolis from primary and secondary data. The calculations were made for work during a year drawn up in a cash flow with the monthly expenses of the hostel. From the results it was concluded that it is feasible to buy this hostel in the real and optimistic scenario and in the Monte Carlo method analyzing the project’s total NPV values

scholarly journals Risks and economic analysis of orange culture: case study of a producer from the interior of São Paulo State, Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 354
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues de Amorim ◽  
José Claudenir Nanetti Junior ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The Brazilian citriculture is one of the activities that generate the most income within the agrobusiness, being responsible for providing opportunities for thousands of direct and indirect workers, besides being a sector that moves a great amount of financial resources. The orange crop has been going through great price swings in the recent years, and with this, many farmers are failing to invest in potential, as a result of the risks involved in the activity. A large part of these risks is related to the buyer market, which is controlled by the large juice industries and by the high capital required for the implementation of the new orchards. The objective of this work is to identify the risk factors for attractiveness and to analyze the economic viability of the orange crop in a farm in the municipality of Bauru, in the state of São Paulo. For this, the Monte Carlo method be used to simulate the probabilities of success in the scenarios analyzed and the NPV, IRR and Payback to determine the feasibility of the project. The research is characterized as a case study. The results obtained showed that the investment is feasible, only in the real and optimistic scenario and will provide a return between the 6th and the 7th year of the project, providing a balance of approximately R$ 4,190,252.94 after 10 years of investment which represents an attractive compared to the initial investment value of R$ 937,500.00.

scholarly journals Análise dos Riscos em Projetos: Uma Aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo em uma Empresa do Setor Moveleiro

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-357
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues de Amorim ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu ◽  
Marco Tulio Ospina Patino ◽  
Leonardo Augusto Amaral Terra
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Em ◽  
A Company

Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment.

scholarly journals Prediksi Tingkat Pemahaman Siswa terhadap Data Nominatif Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 90-95
Author(s):  
Lc Granadi Suhaidir ◽  
S Sumijan ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Trial Data ◽  
Manual Search ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Work Training ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
The City

Kerinci Regency which was established on November 10, 1957 from the results of the division of 3 provinces, namely West Sumatra Province, Riau Province, Jambi Province. The district which is nicknamed the City of Sakti Alam Kerinci has a population of 253,258 people with an area of ​​3,808 km and consists of 16 sub-districts. So that training, technology, and improving Maunisa Resources are needed in various aspects of Kerinci society. Determine the level of accuracy of the Monte Carlo method simulation between the simulation results and the real data. In this study, the main data used were data for 2017, 2018 and 2019. The variable used in this study was the frequency of student scores in participating in learning. The value data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method assisted by Microsoft Excel for manual search. Student grade data for 2017 is used as trial data to predict in 2018, data for 2018 is used as trial data to predict the number of 2019, and data for 2019 will be used to predict the number in 2020 later. Where the highest prediction result is 96% where there are several competencies that have the same value. So that the average resulting from the predicted accuracy is 95% of the 7 competencies. The test results have clearly formed the boundaries. With an accuracy rate of 95%, it can be recommended to help the UPTD Kerinci District Work Training Center in predicting the level of understanding of students.

scholarly journals Prediction of Ornamental Plant's Sales from Monte-Carlo Simulations

Khazanah ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
farah Alysa Putri ◽  
◽  
Sekar Salma Putri ◽  
Rika Yulianti ◽  
Safrida Isna Sifa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Ornamental Plants ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Target Number ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Indonesia is projected to become the world's number four economic power with a demographic bonus. The demographic bonus is obtained from the size of the middle class and the productive age population in Indonesia. With this opportunity, Indonesia has a chance to achieve target number 8 of the SDGs. However, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, the Indonesian economy is experiencing a recession. This can be restored with the contribution of the middle class in increasing sales of ornamental plants which are in great demand by the public during the pandemic. Indra Garden's ornamental plants, located in Pondok Ranji, is one of the MSMEs that sells various types of ornamental plants. The research objective was to predict future sales and profit figures from Indra Garden's ornamental plants. This study uses secondary data with data collection techniques, namely direct interviews from Indra Garden. The data used are sales data caladium of ornamental plants with various species for 1 month in October 2020 using the Monte-Carlo method. Based on simulation using the Monte-Carlo method, the prediction results obtained from the sales of caladium types of ornamental plants are 3 per day in a month. This simulation was carried out 7 times and obtained a prediction of the sales profit of Rp. 4,802,500 with an accuracy rate of 97.41%. Meanwhile, the data examiner using MAPE showed that the prediction error rate was 46.51% so it can be stated that the prediction success was 55.49%. The Monte-Carlo method can predict the sales of ornamental plants in the next period with an accuracy rate of 97.41% and a MAPE of 46.51%. So it can be concluded that the simulation results are accurate and suitable for use in making sales decisions in the future.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
OSAMA A. B. HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

This article attempts to adapt the Monte Carlo method to the quantitative risk management of environmental pollution. In this context, the feasibility of stochastic models to quantitatively evaluate the risk of chemical pollution is first discussed and then linked to a case study in which Monte Carlo simulations are applied. The objective of the case study is to develop a Monte Carlo scheme for evaluating the pollution in a lake environment. It is shown that the results can be of interest as they define the risk margins that are important to the sustainability of the ecosystem in general, and human health in particular. Moreover, assessing the environmental pollution with the help of the Monte Carlo method can be feasible and serve the purpose of investigating and controlling the environmental pollution, in the long and short terms.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation in Predicting the Level of Culinary Sales Revenue (Case Study at Radja Minas Padang)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ihksan ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
High Level ◽  
The City

Radja Minas is one of the culinary places located in the city of Padang with more than 30 employees. With the development of Radja Minas, of course, a good management strategy is needed. One way to do a revenue simulation, sales revenue simulation is a process of drawing or predicting sales. This study aims to predict the average sales revenue, so that it becomes a recommendation for use in making management strategies. The data processed in this research is sales data from 2017 to 2019 which comes from Radja Minas. This data will be processed using the monte Carlo method. The results of the tests that have been done have an accuracy rate of 92.66%. The high level of accuracy from the results of predictive data processing, this research is very precise and suitable for optimizing sales revenue. So that this research becomes a recommendation to be used in making a management strategy at Radja Minas in the future.

scholarly journals Prediction Of Amount Of Use Of Planning Family Contraception Equipment Using Monte Carlo Method (Case Study In Linggo Sari Baganti District)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rani Yunima Astia ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Sumijan Sumijan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Married Couple ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Numerical Analysis Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Family planning aims to minimize birth rates in Indonesia. To conduct socialization, it is carried out to existing fertile couples. Pus is a married couple whose wife is in the range of 15-49 years. Contraception itself consists of 2 periods, namely short and long. Where the pus can choose according to what they want, therefore there is often a lack of stock. Thus it is necessary to predict how many contraceptives are used with a method to be more efficient. The Monte Carlo method is used which is a numerical analysis method that involves a sample of random numbers. Where to use the previous year's data to get the predicted results of the next year in the form of numbers. After passing the simulation series the percentage results have been obtained with an average of over 80%.

scholarly journals Evaluation of costs and reworks in the tires recovery process by the Monte Carlo Method: case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2925-2942
Author(s):  
Fernando Ailton Castellani de Oliveira ◽  
Nilson Brandalise
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Productive Process ◽  
Quality Tools

Companies are increasingly seeking methods to eliminate costs, and one of the big problems in companies is rework. The objective of this study was to identify costs and rework through the application of quality tools, allied to the Monte Carlo method (MMC), comprising the productive process of tire retreading, through an exploratory study. The applied methodology was in a tire retreading industry, located in the southern Fluminense region, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. One can conclude from the use of quality tools that the main failures within the process were the vulcanization, bonding and scarification / repair and also analyze by the Monte Carlo method the costs presented in the tire reform process through 5000 interactions. Through the tools, we can quantify the failures occurred in each stage. The main contribution of this work is the identification of the costs caused by the rework in the tires of automobiles and of load.

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