scholarly journals Okun’s Law in Bulgaria, Greece and Russia: A Comparative Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-144
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The purpose of the article is to perform an empirical assessment and comparative analysis of Okun’s Law for Bulgaria, Greece and Russia. Ordinary least squares regressions of time series data (from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2019 in Bulgaria and Greece, and from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2019 in Russia) are employed to estimate the relationships between unemployment, economic growth and the output gap. The results from the empirical analysis show that while in Bulgaria the phase of the business cycle does not affect the validity and strength of the manifestation of Okun’s Law, in Greece and Russia the link between unemployment and output is cyclically influenced – it is much stronger during contraction than it is during expansion.

Internal and external determinants of banks’ profitability

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia ◽  
João Pedro Silva Martins Guerreiro
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Net Interest Margin

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the profitability of 27 universal banks in Portugal over the period from 2002 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts ordinary least squares estimations with fixed effects using three measures of profitability: the return on average assets, the return on average equity and the net interest margin. Several independent variables were included concerning both bank-specific and macroeconomic and industry-specific characteristics which have not been considered in previous studies. In addition, the sub-sample between 2008 and 2011 was considered for comparative analysis. Findings – The authors concluded that the independent variables selected, with few exceptions, behaved accordingly to what was expected. Originality/value – To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine determinants of banks’ profitability in Portugal, both internal and external, using time series data, which have not been considered in previous studies.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran: Analisis Hukum Okun

The Winners ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Darman Darman
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
The Difference

The concept of a negative relationship between economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) and unemployment rate is known as Okun's law (Okun's Law) or the Okun coefficient. The application of Okun's law in Indonesia uses time series data from 1999 to 2013. The method used is the difference version of Okun's law to gain Okun coefficient and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis to obtain the regression coefficients. In a macro-economic framework, Okun's law states that if the GDP grows at 2.5% above the trend, which has been achieved in a given year, the unemployment rate will fall by 1 %. From various studies conducted by several researchers can be seen that the Okun coefficient in each different country. In Indonesia, the scientific literature that specifically raised the Okun's law does not available, so the study aims to look at how the application of Okun's law in Indonesia The results showed that Okun's law applies in Indonesia, where the Okun coefficient is negative. The unemployment rate tends to increase in line with GDP growth reached.

scholarly journals Panel Econometric Analysis on Mobile Payment Transactions and Traditional Banks Effort toward Financial Accessibility in Sub-Sahara Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cephas Paa Kwasi Coffie ◽  
Hongjiang Zhao ◽  
Isaac Adjei Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mobile Payment ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Mobile Payments ◽  
Long Run

The financial landscape of sub-Sahara Africa is undergoing major changes due to the advent of FinTech, which has seen mobile payments boom in the region. This paper examines the salient role of mobile payments in traditional banks’ drive toward financial accessibility in sub-Sahara Africa by using panel econometric approaches that consider the issues of independencies among cross-sectional residuals. Using data from the World Development Index (WDI) 2011–2017 on 11 countries in the region, empirical results from cross-sectional dependence (CD) tests, panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach indicates that (i) the panel time series data are cross-sectionally independent, (ii) the variables have the same order of integration and are cointegrated, and (iii) growth in mobile payment transactions had a significant positive relationship with formal account ownership, the number of ATMs, and number of new bank branches in the long-run. The paper therefore confirms that the institutional structure of traditional banks that makes them competitive, irrespective of emerging disruptive technologies, has stimulated overall financial accessibility in the region leading to overall sustainable growth in the financial sector. We conclude the paper with feasible policy suggestions.

scholarly journals The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Bartosz Kozicki ◽  
◽  
Jarosław Zelkowski ◽  
Szymon Mitkow ◽  
Mariusz Gontarczyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Middle East Countries ◽  
Military Security ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis ◽  
Klein’S Model ◽  
The Impact

The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Inflation Volatility, Exchange Rate and Output Gap Volatility in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4772-4787
Author(s):  
Sevilay Küçüksakarya ◽  
Mustafa Özer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the short and long-run relationships between Inflation volatility, exchange rate, and output gap volatility using the ARDL bounds testing approach in Turkey. Also, we repeat the estimates by using the output gap as well. Moreover, we examine the causal relationship among these variables by using Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain causality tests. For this purpose, the study uses quarterly time series data between 2005 Q1 and 2020 Q4. Both short and long-run results of the ARDL estimates indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between exchange rate and inflation volatility, between output gap volatility and inflation volatility, and between the output gap and inflation volatility. As expected long-run effect of the exchange rate on inflation, volatility is negative, and the effects of both output volatility and output gap on inflation volatility are positive. Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap will have permanent and temporary causal effects on inflation volatility. Therefore, the study results provide new evidence about the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap. The policymakers should carefully consider these results to implement appropriate policies to reduce inflation volatility.

scholarly journals Effect of a Publicly Accessible Disclosure System on Food Safety Inspection Scores in Retail and Food Service Establishments

2017 ◽  
Vol 80 (7) ◽  
pp. 1188-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihee Choi ◽  
Robert L. Scharff
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Food Service ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Public Health Department ◽  
Foodborne Disease ◽  
Least Squares Regression

ABSTRACT The increased frequency with which people are dining out coupled with an increase in the publicity of foodborne disease outbreaks has led the public to an increased awareness of food safety issues associated with food service establishments. To accommodate consumer needs, local health departments have increasingly publicized food establishments' health inspection scores. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of the color-coded inspection score disclosure system in place since 2006 in Columbus, OH, by controlling for several confounding factors. This study incorporated cross-sectional time series data from food safety inspections performed from the Columbus Public Health Department. An ordinary least squares regression was used to assess the effect of the new inspection regime. The introduction of the new color-coded food safety inspection disclosure system increased inspection scores for all types of establishments and for most types of inspections, although significant differences were found in the degree of improvement. Overall, scores increased significantly by 1.14 points (of 100 possible). An exception to the positive results was found for inspections in response to foodborne disease complaints. Scores for these inspections declined significantly by 10.2 points. These results should be useful for both food safety researchers and public health decision makers.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on the Level of Accounting Conservatism in Commercial Banks: Evidence from Jordan

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuf Ali Al-Hroot ◽  
Laith Akram Muflih AL-Qudah ◽  
Faris Irsheid Audeh Alkharabsha
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Accounting Conservatism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper intends to investigate whether the financial crisis (2008) exerted an impact on the level of accounting conservatism in the case of Jordanian commercial banks before and during the financial crisis. The sample of this study includes 78 observations; these observations are based on the financial statements of all commercial banks in Jordan and may be referred to as cross-sectional data, whereas the period from 2005 to 2011 represents a range of years characterized by time series data. The appropriate regression model to measure the relationship between cross-sectional data and time series data is in this case the pooled data regression (PDR) using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results indicate that the level of accounting conservatism had been steadily increasing over a period of three years from 2005 to 2007. The results also indicate that the level of accounting conservatism was subjected to an increase during crisis period between 2009 and 2011 compared with the level of accounting conservatism for the period 2005-2007 preceding the global financial crisis. The F-test was used in order to test the significant differences between the regression coefficients for the period before and during the global financial crisis. The results indicate a positive impact on the accounting conservatism during the global financial crisis compared with the period before the global financial crisis. The p-value is 0.040 which indicates that there are statistically significant differences between the two periods; these results are consistent with the results in Sampaio (2015).

scholarly journals Investment in Agriculture and Extractive Industry: A Panacea for National Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Kabiru Isa Dandago
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Crude Petroleum ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Extractive Industry

Economic diversification into agriculture and extractive industry in Nigeria has been a fascinating and crucial economic issue that deserves consideration especially as the country is shifting from mono-economy (caused by oil boom) to other viable economic sectors. The global economic meltdown and depression have stimulated countries to look into other sectors of the economy in order to enhance their national development. Hence, this study tries to examine the contribution of agriculture and extractive industry to the Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (RGDP). The study makes use of time series data gathered from CBN Statistical Bulletin ranging from 1981-2017 and employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method as the statistical tool with the aid of e-views version 9. The findings reveal that agriculture has a robust and noteworthy positive impact on RGDP while the solid mineral equally has a substantial positive influence on RGDP. However, crude petroleum (proxy for crude petroleum & natural gas) has a positive inconsequential effect on RGDP. This brings the study to a conclusion that investment in agriculture and solid minerals is highly imperative at the moment. Therefore, the study has suggested that economic diversification should be focused more on agriculture and solid mineral extraction. In addition, the government should try to manage the crude petroleum and natural gas exploration so as to prevent fund repatriation and transfer to other countries due to borrowed technology.

New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment

1986 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Romer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Product ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Business Cycle

The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correlation properities of the new macroeconomic series and investigates the Okun's Law relationship between unemployment and GNP, concluding with an evaluation of the assumptions underlying the old and new data.

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