scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of the Developing Countries’ Trade Indicators

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Dr. Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Concentration Index ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Import Share

In this paper, the author attempted to study the patterns of the export and import shares of the developing countries and found out the relation of export and import share with its determinants like growth rate, inflation rate, FDI, current account balance, REER, concentration index, and diversification index respectively during 1980-2016 where FDI, REER, and diversification index significantly influenced the export and import shares respectively. Both the export and import shares have upward structural breaks and smooth cyclical trends. Their VAR models are unstable and non-stationary.

IMF Stabilization Programs, Policy Conduct and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Case Study of Pakistan

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-62
Author(s):  
Nawaz A. Hakro ◽  
Wadho Waqar Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Imf

This study is designed to assess the macroeconomic performance of fund-supported programs, and the sequencing and ordering of macroeconomic policies in the context of the Pakistan economy. The generalized evaluation estimator technique has been used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the IMF supported programs. GDP growth, inflation rate, current account balance, fiscal balance and unemployment are used as the target variables in order to gauge economic performance during the program years. The vector of policy variables (that might have been adopted in the absence of programs) and the vector of foreign exogenous variables are also taken as explanatory variables in the model, so that the individual effect of the IMF supported programs could be assessed. The result suggests that as the IMF prescriptions were applied, the current account balance has worsened, the unemployment rate has significantly increased, and the inflation rate has increased during the years of fund-supported programs. Only the budget balance has shown signs of improvement. Furthermore an inadequate sequencing of reforms has contributed to the further worsening of the economic scenario during the program period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Size on Inflation in selected Developing Countries (2006-2014)

2018 ◽  
pp. 71-90
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

One of the serious challenges facing developing countries that are facing is the issue of inflation. Inflation creates serious challenges for economic agents as a result of the greatly damaging effects of economic and economic growth. Despite the general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is still no agreement between economists on the causes of its creation. The present study examines the impact of government size on inflation in 16 selected developing countries (Afghanistan, India, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Qatar, Singapore, Kuwait, Pakistan, Uruguay, Benon, Nepal, Mali, Vietnam and Bhutan) will be tested during the period from 2006 to 2014. The pattern examined for this purpose, using the combination (panel) data in the least squared method completely, for the investigated pattern for this purpose, using generalized least squares panel data, toinvestigate the effect of each of the variables of government size, the index of import value, interest rate, Money and quasi money growth rate and GDP growth rate used on the Inflation rate. The results of this research indicate that the Money and quasi money growth rate, interest rate and growth rate of the import value index had a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and the GDP growth rate had a negative and significant effect on the inflation rate. Also, the main independent variable of government size model has had a negative and significant impact on inflation in the studied countries.

scholarly journals The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Cetrez ◽  
Yasin Baris Altayligil
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
First Time ◽  
Current Account Balances ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Abstract The role of macroeconomic stability in current account balances has not been studied with a calculated index in the literature until now. It is aimed to find out the role of macroeconomic stability in current account balances for the first time in the study. The analysis is completed for the period between 1980 and 2016 for 97 countries. The macroeconomic stability is represented by an index which is created with inflation rate, growth rate, unemployment rate and fiscal balance data of all the countries. It is found out that the macroeconomic stability is one of the important determinants of current account balances like institutional quality and financial development. It has a negative and statistically significant relationships with current account balances for four different country groups which are developing countries, all countries except industrial, all countries except industrial and African countries, and all countries. Results show that the macroeconomic stability is especially important for the developing countries rather than high income countries.

Is there any Long-run Relationship between India’s Current and Capital Account Balance? A Time Series Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debashis Chakraborty ◽  
Jaydeep Mukherjee ◽  
Tanaya Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Account Convertibility ◽  
The Individual

The long-run relationship between current account balance (CAB) and capital account balance (KAB) and the repercussions of capital account convertibility (KAC) on the growth process of a country is a much-debated issue. In particular, in the aftermath of the Southeast Asian crisis, the limitation of the liberal capital regime for a developing country like India is often highlighted in the literature. However, the probable impact of introducing KAC on CAB in India is generally discussed theoretically. Though some empirical studies in India have recently focused on this research question, the current paper contributes to the literature first, by exploring the presence of any endogenous structural breaks in the individual series of CAB and KAB and then examining the nature of long-run relationship between them. Applying the ARDL method of co-integration, the empirical findings support the presence of a long term co-integrating relationship between capital and current account balance and reveals that a significant structural break is observed during 2002–03 for both the series.

scholarly journals Risk and FDI flows to developing countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Van Wyk ◽  
Anil Lal
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Institutional Variables ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Absolute Growth ◽  
The Impact

The explanatory power of institutional and macroeconomic variables for FDI stock accumulation in developing countries is investigated. Hypotheses are tested by means of pooled least squares regressions. The impact of institutional variables on FDI flows produced mixed results: levels of economic freedom facilitate inward FDI; political risk dampens investment. Some macroeconomic variables displayed significant explanatory power: market size (as measured by per capita income in the base year) and absolute growth of GDP positively impacts FDI inflows.  Other key macroeconomic variables, such as lower current account balance, appreciation of host country’s currency, and lower inflation rate stimulate FDI inflows.

scholarly journals The sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous multiple structural breaks: Evidence from developed and developing countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-358
Author(s):  
Fikret Dülger
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Domestic Economies ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study is to test for the sustainability of current account in 18 developed and 10 developing countries. The stability of the relationship between export (inflows) and import (outflows) is assessed using the tests proposed by Mohitosh Kejriwal and Pierre Perron (2010). In particular, the nature of the long-run relationship, when multiple regime shifts are identified endogenously, is analyzed using the residual-based test of the null hypothesis of cointegration with multiple breaks proposed by Kejriwal (2008). The results clearly indicate that, for all countries, (i) the stability tests reject the null of coefficient stability of the long-run relationship between exports and imports; (ii) the cointegration tests that correspond to the number of breaks selected reject the null of cointegration (weak form of sustainability); and (iii) the strong form of sustainability hypothesis is not supported by the data for all countries in most regimes but not for 20 of 28 countries especially in the last regime (the post-2000 era). For eight countries (Canada, New Zealand, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey), the findings may be perceived as a warning to creditors and policymakers unless there are policy distortions or permanent productivity shocks to the domestic economies.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATION EVIDENCES FROM THE NEW FRAGILE FIVE

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-282
Author(s):  
Gülgün ÇİĞDEM ◽  
Merve ALTAYLAR
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis. At the modeling stage of the research focused on the cointegration relationship. Panel cointegration tests with structural breaks based on LM were used. To examine the unique economic structures of countries, heterogeneous estimating techniques were employed. The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar. This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.

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