scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Screening on the Transmission Dynamics of Human Papillomavirus with Optimal Control

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 735-754
Author(s):  
Eshetu Dadi Gurmu ◽  
Boka Kumsa Bola ◽  
Purnachandra Rao Koya
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Human Papillomavirus ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Screening Strategy ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

In this study, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model of Human Papillomavirus was formulated. The model is studied qualitatively using the stability theory of differential equations. The model is analyzed qualitatively for validating the existence and stability of disease ¬free and endemic equilibrium points using a basic reproduction number that governs the disease transmission. It's observed that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The optimal control problem is designed by applying Pontryagin maximum principle with three control strategies viz. prevention strategy, treatment strategy, and screening strategy. Numerical results of the optimal control model reveal that a combination of prevention, screening, and treatment is the most effective strategy to wipe out the disease in the community.

scholarly journals Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of SEIR epidemic model with saturated treatment function on the network

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 1677-1695
Author(s):  
Boli Xie ◽  
◽  
Maoxing Liu ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Multiple Equilibrium ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

<abstract><p>In order to study the impact of limited medical resources and population heterogeneity on disease transmission, a SEIR model based on a complex network with saturation processing function is proposed. This paper first proved that a backward bifurcation occurs under certain conditions, which means that $ R_{0} &lt; 1 $ is not enough to eradicate this disease from the population. However, if the direction is positive, we find that within a certain parameter range, there may be multiple equilibrium points near $ R_{0} = 1 $. Secondly, the influence of population heterogeneity on virus transmission is analyzed, and the optimal control theory is used to further study the time-varying control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations verify the stability of the system and the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling of Listeriosis Epidemics in Animal and Human Population with Optimal Control.

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 261-287
Author(s):  
Shaibu Osman ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde ◽  
David Mwangi Theuri
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Model Problem ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Contaminated Food ◽  
Serious Disease ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Listeriosis is a serious disease caused by the germ Listeria monocytogenes. People usually become ill with listeriosis after eating contaminated food including meat. The disease primarily affects pregnant women, newborns, older adults, and people with weakened immune systems. In this paper, we propose and scrutinize a model problem describing the transmission dynamics of Listeriosis epidemic in animal and human population using the stability theory of differential equations. The model is qualitatively analysed for the basic reproduction number as well as possibility of forward and backward bifurcation with respect to the stability of disease free and endemic equilibria. The impact of the model parameters on the disease was evaluated via sensitivity analysis. An extension of the model to include time dependent control variables such as treatment, vaccination and education of susceptible (human) is carried out. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we obtain the optimal control strategies needed for combating Listeriosis disease. Numerical simulation of the model is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically and discussed quantitatively.

scholarly journals Global Stability and Optimal Control of Dengue with Two Coexisting Virus Serotypes

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 149-170
Author(s):  
Afeez Abidemi ◽  
Rohanin Ahmad ◽  
Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Boundary Equilibrium

This study presents a two-strain deterministic model which incorporates Dengvaxia vaccine and insecticide (adulticide) control strategies to forecast the dynamics of transmission and control of dengue in Madeira Island if there is a new outbreak with a different virus serotypes after the first outbreak in 2012. We construct suitable Lyapunov functions to investigate the global stability of the disease-free and boundary equilibrium points. Qualitative analysis of the model which incorporates time-varying controls with the specific goal of minimizing dengue disease transmission and the costs related to the control implementation by employing the optimal control theory is carried out. Three strategies, namely the use of Dengvaxia vaccine only, application of adulticide only, and the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide are considered for the controls implementation. The necessary conditions are derived for the optimal control of dengue. We examine the impacts of the control strategies on the dynamics of infected humans and mosquito population by simulating the optimality system. The disease-freeequilibrium is found to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction numbers associated with virus serotypes 1 and j (j 2 {2, 3, 4}), respectively, satisfy R01,R0j 1, and the boundary equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the related R0i (i = 1, j) is above one. It is shown that the strategy based on the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide helps in an effective control of dengue spread in the Island.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh ◽  
Getachew Teshome Telahun
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Control Model ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper we developed a deterministic mathematical model of the pandemic COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia, which allows transmission by exposed humans. We proposed an SEIR model using system of ordinary differential equations. First the major qualitative analysis, like the disease free equilibruim point, endemic equilibruim point, basic reproduction number, stability analysis of equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis was rigorously analysed. Second, we introduced time dependent controls to the basic model and extended to an optimal control model of the disease. We then analysed using Pontryagins Maximum Principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the pandemic. The numerical simulation indicated that, an integrated strategy effective in controling the epidemic and the gvernment must apply all control strategies in combating COVID-19 at short period of time.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF AN INFLUENZA MODEL WITH QUARANTINE AND TREATMENT

2012 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 1260011 ◽  
Author(s):  
WEI-WEI SHI ◽  
YUAN-SHUN TAN
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Number Formula ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

We develop an influenza pandemic model with quarantine and treatment, and analyze the dynamics of the model. Analytical results of the model show that, if basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable, if [Formula: see text], the disease is uniformly persistent. The model is then extended to assess the impact of three anti-influenza control measures, precaution, quarantine and treatment, by re-formulating the model as an optimal control problem. We focus primarily on controlling disease with a possible minimal the systemic cost. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal levels of the three controls. Numerical simulations of the optimality system, using a set of reasonable parameter values, indicate that the precaution measure is more effective in reducing disease transmission than the other two control measures. The precaution measure should be emphasized.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics model of Tuberculosis with optimal control strategies in Haramaya district, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Doyo Kereyu ◽  
Seleshi Demie
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Qualitative Behavior ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Haramaya District ◽  
Disease Free

AbstractIn this study, we use a compartmental nonlinear deterministic mathematical model to investigate the effect of different optimal control strategies in controlling Tuberculosis (TB) disease transmission in the community. We employ stability theory of differential equations to investigate the qualitative behavior of the model by obtaining the basic reproduction number and determining the local stability conditions for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We consider three control strategies representing distancing, case finding, and treatment efforts and numerically compare the levels of exposed and infectious populations with and without control strategies. The results suggest that combination of all controls is the best strategy to eradicate TB disease from the community at an optimal level with minimum cost of interventions.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling on Double Quarantine Process in the Spread and Stability of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangyadatta Behera ◽  
Aswin Kumar Rauta ◽  
Yerra Shankar Rao ◽  
Sairam Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Analytical Result ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed on the spread and control of corona virus disease2019 (COVID19) to ascertain the impact of pre quarantine for suspected individuals having travel history ,immigrants and new born cases in the susceptible class following the lockdown or shutdown rules and adopted the post quarantine process for infected class. Set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are generated and parameters like natural mortality rate, rate of COVID-19 induced death, rate of immigrants, rate of transmission and recovery rate are integrated in the scheme. A detailed analysis of this model is conducted analytically and numerically. The local and global stability of the disease is discussed mathematically with the help of Basic Reproduction Number. The ODEs are solved numerically with the help of Runge-Kutta 4th order method and graphs are drawn using MATLAB software to validate the analytical result with numerical simulation. It is found that both results are in good agreement with the results available in the existing literatures. The stability analysis is performed for both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. The theorems based on Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function are proved .It is found that the system is locally asymptotically stable at disease free and endemic equilibrium points for basic reproduction number less than one and globally asymptotically stable for basic reproduction number greater than one. Finding of this study suggest that COVID-19 would remain pandemic with the progress of time but would be stable in the long-term if the pre and post quarantine policy for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are implemented effectively followed by social distancing, lockdown and containment.

scholarly journals Dynamics of an Epidemic Model under the Influence of Environmental Stress

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-243
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Saha ◽  
Guruprasad Samanta
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Stress ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Dynamical Behaviour ◽  
Treatment Policy ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

We have considered a compartmental epidemiological model with infectious disease to observe the influence of environmental stress on disease transmission. The proposed model is well-defined as the population at each compartment remains positive and bounded with time. Dynamical behaviour of the model is observed by the stability and bifurcation analysis at the equilibrium points. Also, numerical simulation supports the theoretical proofs and the result shows that the system undergoes a forward bifurcation around the disease-free equilibrium. Our results indicate that with the increase of environmental pollution, the overall infected population increases. Also, the disease transmission rate among the susceptible and stressed population from asymptomatically infected individuals plays a crucial role to make a system endemic. A corresponding optimal control problem has also been proposed to control the disease prevalence as well as to minimize the cost by choosing the vaccination policy before being infected and treatment policy to the infected as control variables. Numerical figures indicate that the vaccination provided to susceptible needs some time to reduce the disease transmission but the vaccination provided to stressed individuals works immediately after implementation. The treatment policy for symptomatically infected individuals works with a higher rate at an earlier stage but the intensity decreases with time. Simultaneous implementation of all control interventions is more useful to reduce the size of overall infective individuals and also to minimize the economic burden. Hence, this research clearly expresses the impact of environmental pollution (specifically the influence of environmental stress) on the disease transmission in the population.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of temperature on fractional order dengue model with vertical transmission

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
Ozlem Defterli
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Dengue Disease ◽  
Host Interaction ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Dengue Epidemic

A dengue epidemic model with fractional order derivative is formulated to investigate the effect of temperature on the spread of the vector-host transmitted dengue disease. The model consists of system of fractional order differential equations formulated within Caputo fractional operator. The stability of the equilibrium points of the considered dengue model is studied. The corresponding basic reproduction number R_0 is derived and it is proved that if R_0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is locally asymptotically stable. L1 method is applied to solve the dengue model numerically. Finally, numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the analytical results showing the influence of thetemperature on the dynamics of the vector-host interaction in dengue epidemics.

scholarly journals Stability and optimal control of a delayed HIV/AIDS-PrEP model

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Cristiana J. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Minimum Principle ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Prep Implementation ◽  
Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Hiv Aids

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>In this paper, we propose a time-delayed HIV/AIDS-PrEP model which takes into account the delay on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution and adherence by uninfected persons that are in high risk of HIV infection, and analyze the impact of this delay on the number of individuals with HIV infection. We prove the existence and stability of two equilibrium points, for any positive time delay. After, an optimal control problem with state and control delays is proposed and analyzed, where the aim is to find the optimal strategy for PrEP implementation that minimizes the number of individuals with HIV infection, with minimal costs. Different scenarios are studied, for which the solutions derived from the Minimum Principle for Multiple Delayed Optimal Control Problems change depending on the values of the time delays and the weights constants associated with the number of HIV infected individuals and PrEP. We observe that changes on the weights constants can lead to a passage from <i>bang-singular-bang</i> to <i>bang-bang</i> extremal controls.</p>

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