scholarly journals Simulasi Kebijakan untuk Peningkatan Harga Ekspor T urunan Crude Palm Oil Indonesia: Analisis Sistem Persamaan Simultan

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Odry Syafwil ◽  
Fitri Bunga Adelia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Export Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Negative Effect

Palm oil industries is one of the leading agroindustrial in Indonesia. Since the downstream palm oil industries began at the end of 2011, the export volume of Indonesian CPO derived increased continously. However, it’s export pric e decreased. Thus, the main objective of this research was to built a single policy simulation scenarios that could increase the export price of Indonesian CPO derivatives. This research used simultaneous analysis with T wo-Stage Least Square estimation method that consisted three endogenous variables, namely export price and export volume of Indonesian CPO derivative and real exchange rate of rupiah to US dollar. The estimation results show that the real exchange rate had positive effects on the volume and export prices of Indonesian CPO derivatives. In contrast, the export volume of Indonesian CPO derivatives had positive effect on the real exchange rate and negative effect on the export price. Meanwhile, export prices of Indonesian CPO derivatives had negative effect on real exchange rate but didn’t effect on the export volume. From the estimation and historical time reference was obtained three simulation scenarios which could increase the export price of Indonesian CPO derivatives, i.e. increase 4.0 percent of export tariff, 0.4 percent,of inflation, and 0.4 percent of BI real interest rate. However, each scenario also negative effect on certain endogenous variables. If export tariff of Indonesian CPO derivative was increased, the export volume would decrease. Meanwhile, if the inflation or B I real interest rate was increased, the real exchange rate would depreciate. Keywords: Simultaneous Analysis, 2SLS, Downstream, Export Price, CPO

scholarly journals Asymmetries in the euro area and TFP growth: evidence from three major European economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Bellocchi ◽  
Edgar Sanchez Carrera ◽  
Giuseppe Travaglini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Misallocation ◽  
European Economies

PurposeIn this paper, the authors study the long-run determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in three major European economies over the period 1983–2017, namely Germany, France and Italy.Design/methodology/approachThe authors focus on the capital misallocation effects, scale effects and labor misallocation effects. To this end, the authors study how real interest rate shocks, real exchange rate shocks, real wage shocks and changes in labor regulation affected TFP in major European countries over the last decades. The authors employ a theoretical and an empirical model to investigate the issue. The empirical results are obtained using a VAR model for estimation.FindingsA stripped-down model of labor market in open economy with technology progress allows to identify the relevant variables affecting TFP. On the empirical ground, the authors find a positive relationship between TFP and real interest rate in the long run. Importantly, the authors detect a positive relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. Further, the authors show that the TFP can respond positively to a stricter labor market regulation and to a higher real compensation per employee. The results provide support to the idea that TFP has a positive relation with prices in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price rigidity.Research limitations/implicationsThe present model is stylized and may not capture all of the details of reality. The analysis should be extended to a larger number of countries. Technology progress could be proxied using different variables, as the R&D expenditure or the number of patents. Micro data, for specific sectors and industries, can improve the quality of the empirical investigation.Practical implicationsMainly the authors find that TFP has a positive relationship with price changes in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price stickiness. Capital misallocation and labor misallocation can negatively affect TFP. Thus, the observed divergences in European TFP can be traced back to the misallocation effects attributable to the decrease of real interest rate and real wages, together with the raising labor flexibility. Mainly, the authors detect a positive long-run relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. This outcome strengthens the supply-side view of the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate.Social implicationsThe authors believe that the present setup can be helpful to reflect critically on the nodes at the core of the productivity slowdown and asymmetries in the eurozone. The aim is to implement renewed policies in order to favor economic growth, convergence and stability in the euro area.Originality/valueThis research addresses the issue of asymmetries among European economies by focusing on the role played by real prices in the long run. Traditionally, the dynamics of TFP have been attributed only to technological components, human capital and knowledge. This work shows that the dynamics of prices such as the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and the real wage can also influence the technological process by pushing the production system toward choices that are not always optimal for economic growth. An interesting result of this research concerns the positive relationship between real exchange rates and TFP in the long term, evidence of an important supply-side effect on the technological process.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DUNIA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-338
Author(s):  
Hilda Aprina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
The Real ◽  
World Price ◽  
The World

Indonesia is a biggest producer of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the world. Production and export volumes continued to increase from year to year. CPO products have an important role in the Indonesian economy, one of them as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner in the plantation sector. Given that Indonesia has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 1978, the export of commodities such as palm oil will have an important influence on the real exchange rate. Therefore, this study aimed to see how much the world price of CPO influence the development of the real exchange rate of rupiah. The analytical method used is a simultaneous equation model using time series data from 1984 to 2011. The results showed that the increase in CPO price will lead to real exchange rate rupiah appreciated. Therefore, Indonesia as a major producer of CPO should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil in order to control the stability of the real exchange rate of the rupiah. Keywords : world CPO price, simultaneous equation model, the real exchange rate of rupiah.JEL Classification: E2

scholarly journals The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (4II) ◽  
pp. 577-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaista Alam ◽  
Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt ◽  
Azhar Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Differentials

The role of exchange rate policy in economic development has been the subject of much debate and controversy in the development literature. Interest rates and exchange rates are usually viewed as important in the transmission of monetary impulses to the real economy. In the short run the standard view of academics and policy-makers is that a monetary expansion lowers the interest rate and rises the exchange rate, with these price changes then affecting the level and composition of aggregate demand. Frequently, these influences are described as the liquidity effects of monetary expansion, viewed as the joint effect of providing larger quantities of money to the private sector. Popular theories of exchange-rate determination also predict a link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. These theories combine the uncovered interest parity relationship with the assumption that the real exchange rate deviates from its long-run level only temporarily. Under these assumptions, shocks to the real exchange rate—which are often viewed as caused by shocks to monetary policy—are expected to reverse themselves over time. This study investigates the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials using recently developed panel cointegration technique. Although this kind of relationship has been studied by a number of researchers,1 very little evidence in support of the relationship has been reported in the case of developing countries. For example, Meese and Rogoff (1988) and Edison and Pauls (1993), among others, used the Engle-Granger cointegration method and fail to establish a clear long-run relationship in their analysis.

scholarly journals Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Afsin Sahin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
Pass Through

This paper analyzes the effects of the real policy interest rate on the banking sector lending rate, the deposit rate, real stock prices, and the real exchange rate using the Engle Granger cointegration method (EG), the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the nonlinear vector error-correction model (NVECM) with monthly Turkish data over the period January 2002–April 2018. (1) EG results indicate bivariate cointegration relationships between the real interest rate, lending rates, and the deposit rate. The real interest rate increases all lending rates, mainly the housing rate. However, the long-run coefficient for the real exchange rate is not statistically significant. The pass-through is higher for the deposit rate than for lending rates. Moreoever, real stock prices shrink substantially where the finance sector has been affected the most. (2) VECM results indicate a cointegration relationship between all the variables except for the real exchange rate, which has a statistically non-significant pass-through coefficient. The real interest rate has a noteworthy long-run positive effect on the housing loans lending rate compared to others. The affirmative effect on real stock prices is the highest for the technology sector. The short-run effect of the real interest rate on lending rates, real stock prices and the real exchange rate are statistically non-significant except for the overall stock price index, and the vehicle loans lending rate which has a higher coefficient than the deposit rate. (3) NVECM results allow testing of eleven hypotheses and highlight the symmetric relationship and the valid pass-through effect, and reject the strong exogeneity assumption for all variables.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Kentang pada PT Bumi Sari Lestari Kabupaten Temanggung Jawa Tengah

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 714-722
Author(s):  
Agus Faisal ◽  
◽  
Kustopo Budiraharjo ◽  
Mukson Mukson
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Potato Production ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Export Volume

Exports are trading activities or selling goods to other countries with a mutually agreed system. International trade is one of the activities whose role is very important in increasing state income or meeting domestic needs. PT Bumi Sari Lestari is one of the horticultural exporters. It is necessary to know how many export volumes and what factors affect export volumes. This study aims to determine various factors that can affect the volume of potato exports of PT Bumi Sari Lestari, Temanggung, Central Java and predict the export of potatoes in the next few years (2020-2021). The study was conducted in March-May 2020 located at PT Bumi Sari Lestari, Temanggung, Central Java. The method used in this research is a case study. Determination The location of the study was determined intentionally (purposive). The data used in this study are primary data (interviews) and secondary data over the past 5 years (company data and related agencies in 2015-2019). Analysis of the data used in this study uses quantitative descriptive analysis and statistics with linear regression analysis and trend analysis. The variables analyzed include demand, export prices, local prices in Central Java, potato production, inflation, exchange rates and dummy number of importers. Based on the results of the study it can be concluded that the average annual potato export is 595,849 kg. Variable demand, potato export prices and local potato prices, inflation and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously affect the volume of potato exports. The variable of demand, local price and inflation variables have a partial effect on the export volume of potatoes, while the variable of export price, the exchange rate and the number of importers have no partial effect on the export volume of potatoes. The results of forecasting of PT Bumi Sari Lestari potato exports in 2020 and 2021 were 572,074 kg and 301,818 kg respectively, which were 572,074 kg or decreased by 14.28% every quarter.

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