scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China: comparison between imported and local cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (08) ◽  
pp. 853-860
Author(s):  
Zhihui Li ◽  
Jin Wang ◽  
Jingyi Huang ◽  
Jiahai Lu
Keyword(s):  
Admission Diagnosis ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Discharge Density ◽  
Family Based ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Subclinical Symptoms ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Lower Discharge

Introduction: An unprecedented outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swept across the globe since the end of 2019. Shenzhen confirmed its first imported case from Wuhan on 19 January 2020. However, little is known regarding the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in these imported cities. Methodology: Data of all 417 confirmed cases diagnosed in Shenzhen before 29 February were collected. The epidemiological characteristics of imported and local cases were compared. The resilience to COVID-19 was evaluated by discharge density. Results: All ten districts reported COVID-19 cases by 29 February, including 331 imported and 86 local cases. The Pearson linear correlation model showed the number of confirmed cases (r = 0.990, p < 0.001) as well as incidence of COVID-19 (r = 0.766, p = 0.010) was positively correlated with the gross domestic product of district. Family clusters were more commonly found in local cases. Imported patients had earlier onset (p < 0.001) and diagnosis (p < 0.001), but longer interval from onset to admission (p = 0.030), diagnosis (p = 0.003) and discharge (p = 0.016). Older and severe cases had lower discharge density (0.024 and 0.018, respectively); while cases with subclinical symptoms exhibited higher discharge density (0.052). Conclusions: COVID-19 patients were predominantly imported cases in Shenzhen and the spatial distribution was closely related to district GDP. Imported and local cases differed in the intervals from onset to admission, diagnosis and discharge. Moreover, family-based transmission should not be ignored, especially in local cases.

scholarly journals Nepal’s Response to Contain COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rano Mal Piryani ◽  
Suneel Piryani ◽  
Jay Narayan Shah
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Status ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Nepal is a landlocked country bordering two most populous countries, India and China. Nepal shares open border with India from three sides, east, south and west. And, in north with China, where the novel coronavirus infection (CVOVID-19) began in late December 2019. The first confirmed imported case in Nepal was reported in 2nd week of January 2020. The initial response of Nepal to COVID-19 were comparably slow but country geared efforts after it was declared a ‘global pandemic’ by WHO on 11 March, 2020. Government of Nepal’s steps from 18 March, 2020 led to partial lock down and countrywide lockdown imposed on 24 March, 2020. Government devised comprehensive plan on 27 March, 2020 for quarantine for peoples who arrived in Nepal from COVID-19 affected countries. This article covers summary of global status, South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) status, and Nepal’s response to contain COVID-19 infection discussed under three headings: Steps taken before and after WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic and lab services regarding detection of COVID-19. Nepal has documented five confirmed cases of COVID-19 till the end of March 2020, first in second week of 15 January, 2020 and 2nd case 8-weeks thereafter and 3rd case two days later, 4th on 27 March and 5th on 28 March. Four more cases detected during first week of April. Non-Pharmacological interventions like social distancing and excellent personal habits are widely practiced. Country has to enhance testing and strengthen tracing, isolation and quarantine mechanism and care of COVID-19 patients as Nepal is in risk zone because of comparably weak health system and porous borders with India. The time will tell regarding further outbreak and how it will be tackled.Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; Nepal; pandemic; response

scholarly journals Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Mexico and the Potential Impact of Lifting Confinement Across Regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristy Leonor Azanza Ricardo ◽  
Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
High Death ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has paralyzed our societies, leading to self-isolation and quarantine for several days. As the 10th most populated country in the world, Mexico is on a major threat by COVID-19 due to the limitations of intensive care capacities, about 1.5 hospital beds for every 1,000 citizens. In this paper, we characterize the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and projected different scenarios to evaluate sharp or gradual quarantine lifting strategies. Mexican government relaxed strict social distancing regulations on June 1, 2020, deriving to pandemic data with large fluctuations and uncertainties of the tendency of the pandemic in Mexico. Our results suggest that lifting social confinement must be gradually sparse while maintaining a decentralized region strategy among the Mexican states. To substantially lower the number of infections, simulations highlight that a fraction of the population that represents the elderly should remain in social confinement (approximately 11.3% of the population); a fraction of the population that represents the confined working class (roughly 27% of the population) must gradually return in at least four parts in consecutive months; and to the last a fraction of the population that assumes the return of students to schools (about 21.7%). As the epidemic progresses, deconfinement strategies need to be continuously re-adjusting with the new pandemic data. All mathematical models, including ours, are only a possibility of many of the future, however, the different scenarios that were developed here highlight that a gradual decentralized region deconfinement with a significant increase in healthcare capacities is paramount to avoid a high death toll in Mexico.

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics and the effectiveness of countermeasures to control coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuying Lao ◽  
Li Luo ◽  
Zhao Lei ◽  
Ting Fang ◽  
Yi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Assessment Data ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
High Disease Burden

Abstract Background: A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread widely and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods: A susceptible – exposed – infectious – asymptomatic – recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. Data of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection of SARS-CoV-2 were collected to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China.Results: A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic has an increasing trend. The proportion of asymptomatic of elder people was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistical significant (Fisher’s Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic, with a proportion of 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate of asymptomatic was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no significance was observed (χ2 = 1.350, P = 0.245) by Kruskal-Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was 1.43 which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions were not strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would last about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention.Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. Asymptomatic infection has the same transmissibility as symptomatic. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which found to be exceedingly effective in China.

scholarly journals Purely data-driven exploration of COVID-19 pandemic after three months of the outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirali Kadyrov ◽  
Hayot Berk Saydaliev
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Modeling ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractIt has been three months since the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. Many research studies were carried to understand its epidemiological characteristics in the early phase of the disease outbreak. The current study is yet another contribution to better understand the disease properties by parameter estimation of mathematical SIR epidemic modeling. The authors use Johns Hopkins University’s dataset to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 for representative countries (Japan, Germany, Italy, France, and Netherlands) selected using cluster analysis. As a by-product, the authors estimate transmission, recovery, and death rates for each selected country and carry statistical tests to see if there are any significant differences.

scholarly journals Early spread of COVID-19 in Romania: imported cases from Italy and human-to-human transmission networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 200780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marian-Gabriel Hâncean ◽  
Matjaž Perc ◽  
Jürgen Lerner
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Transmission Networks ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Geographical Dispersion ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

We describe the early spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the first human-to-human transmission networks, in Romania. We profiled the first 147 cases referring to sex, age, place of residence, probable country of infection, return day to Romania, COVID-19 confirmation date and the probable modes of COVID-19 transmissions. Also, we analysed human-to-human transmission networks and explored their structural features and time dynamics. In Romania, local cycles of transmission were preceded by imported cases, predominantly from Italy. We observed an average of 4.8 days (s.d. = 4.0) between the arrival to a Romanian county and COVID-19 confirmation. Furthermore, among the first 147 COVID-19 patients, 88 were imported cases (64 carriers from Italy), 54 were domestic cases, while for five cases the source of infection was unknown. The early human-to-human transmission networks illustrated a limited geographical dispersion, the presence of super-spreaders and the risk of COVID-19 nosocomial infections. COVID-19 occurred in Romania through case importation from Italy. The largest share of the Romanian diaspora is concentrated especially in the northern parts of Italy, heavily affected by COVID-19. Human mobility (including migration) accounts for the COVID-19 transmission and it should be given consideration while tailoring prevention measures.

scholarly journals COVID-19: epidemiology and preventive measures in Jiangsu province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Chen ◽  
JiaShu Liu ◽  
ChangRui Yang ◽  
Zi-sheng Ai ◽  
AiHong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Jiangsu Province ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Cure Rate ◽  
The People ◽  
Improve Cure Rate ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background: To investigate the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and the prevention measures in Jiangsu Province. Methods: Information of all novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases in Jiangsu was collected from the official website of Jiangsu Commission of Health. All data were entered into Excel and Python3 for statistical analysis. Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases from January 10, 2020 to March 18 in Jiangsu province were retrospectively analyzed. Meanwhile, the preventive measures of Jiangsu Commission of Health and the people’s Government of Jiangsu Province were also analyzed. Results: 631 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Jiangsu Province, covering 13 cities in Jiangsu. Before February 1, the confirmed cases were mainly imported cases, and after February 1, community transmission cases became main part of confirmed cases. There were more male patients than females, and most patients were in the group of 30-70 years old, 49 patients (7.8%) with mild symptom and 572 patients (90.6%) with common type accounted for the majority. The cumulative mortality rate was 0% and the cure rate was 100%. Reasonable treatments, timely and effective preventive measures were taken to effectively improve cure rate and to prevent the spread of the epidemic, all measures ensure the health and life safety of the people. Conclusion: The preventive measures in Jiangsu Province were timely and effective, the epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province had been well controlled.

scholarly journals Epidemiologic Characteristics and Double-buffered Strategy for Patients in Orthopedic Surgery During the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: Wuhan's Experience

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Jianghua Ming ◽  
Shiqing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Nosocomial Infection ◽  
Orthopedic Surgery ◽  
Perioperative Complications ◽  
Control Group ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Postoperative Complication Rate ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Perioperative Risks ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Epidemiologic Characteristics

Abstract Background: The purpose of this article is to summarize the epidemiologic characteristics and double-buffered strategy for patients in orthopedic surgery during the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, based on our own experience in our hospital. Methods: A retrospective and comparative study was performed to identify all inpatients at our clinic from February 17, 2020 to April 20, 2020 (epidemic group), and from February 17, 2019 to April 20, 2019 (control group). Epidemiologic characteristics, screening effect, perioperative complications, and nosocomial infection were analyzed. Results: In the epidemic group, 82 patients were identified, a decrease by 76.0% than the 342 patients in the same period in the 2019. Patients in the epidemic group (54.6 ± 20.2 years) were older than those in the control group (49.6 ± 22.5 years). For the epidemic group, the proportion rates of traumatic factures (69.5%) and low-energy injuries (86.0%) were higher than that in the control group, respectively (35.4% and 37.2%). The preoperative waiting time (7.0 ± 2.6 days) in the epidemic group was longer than that in the control group (4.5 ± 2.1 days). The postoperative complication rate (12.2%) in the epidemic group was higher than that in the control group (3.5%). No nosocomial infection of orthopedic staff and patients with COVID-19 was noted in the epidemic group.Conclusion: During the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, orthopedic inpatients showed unique epidemiological characteristics. The double-buffered strategy could effectively avoid nosocomial infections among medical staff and patients. Doctors should fully evaluate the perioperative risks and complications.

scholarly journals Covid19 infection spread in Greece: Ensemble forecasting models with statistically calibrated parameters and stochastic noise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios D. Politis ◽  
Leontios Hadjileontiadis
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Social ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Least Squares Optimization ◽  
Healthcare Interventions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Subsequent Failure ◽  
Of Greece

AbstractFollowing the outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov2 in Europe and the subsequent failure of national healthcare systems to sufficiently respond to the fast spread of the pandemic, extensive statistical analysis and accurate forecasting of the epidemic in local communities is of primary importance in order to better organize the social and healthcare interventions and determine the epidemiological characteristics of the disease. For this purpose, a novel combination of Monte Carlo simulations, wavelet analysis and least squares optimization is applied to a known basis of SEIR compartmental models, resulting in the development of a novel class of stochastic epidemiological models with promising short and medium-range forecasting performance. The models are calibrated with the epidemiological data of Greece, while data from Switzerland and Germany are used as a supplementary background. The developed models are capable of estimating parameters of primary importance such as the reproduction number and the real magnitude of the infection in Greece. A clear demonstration of how the social distancing interventions managed to promptly restrict the epidemic growth in the country is included. The stochastic models are also able to generate robust 30-day and 60-day forecast scenarios in terms of new cases, deaths, active cases and recoveries.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Egyptian Children: A Multicenter Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 057-061
Author(s):  
Amin Abdel Baki ◽  
Samy Zaky ◽  
Hossam Hosny ◽  
Gehan Elassal ◽  
Akram Abdelbary ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Significant Morbidity ◽  
Egyptian Children ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Benign Course

Abstract Objective The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made its worldwide spread since its outbreak in December 2019. Limited information is available about the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of COVID-19, especially in Africa and Egypt. Methods We aimed to study the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Egyptian children. This is an observational retrospective cohort study performed at two specialized COVID-19 isolation hospitals in Egypt. All admitted COVID-19 pediatric patients between March 20, 2020, and May 1, 2020, were included in the study. Discussion This study included 40 COVID-19 confirmed cases (mean age, 9.4 years), 67.5% were male, 85% were asymptomatic, and 15% had mild symptoms. There were no confirmed severe or critically ill cases among the patients. Conclusion COVID-19 runs in a benign course in Egyptian children with no mortality and no significant morbidity.

scholarly journals Characteristics of discharged patients from hospitals - Georgian descriptive study

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Skhvitaridze ◽  
A Gamkrelidze ◽  
M Kereselidze ◽  
K Gambashidze ◽  
L Kandelaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Health Conditions ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Discharged Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, started spreading rapidly across the world. Although, many aspects of disease is still under the observation. Therefore, in this study retrospectively was investigated the data on patients discharged from Georgian hospitals between February and June. According to Georgian regulation, all patients with confirmed COVID-19 should be hospitalized. The data sources were hospitalization registry and the standardized case report forms. In this descriptive study, epidemiological characteristics of 500 COVID-19 cases confirmed with PCR tests were analyzed. Among variables were: gender, age and geographic distribution, disease characteristics, underlying health conditions, test-related features, etc. Majority of patients (72.0%) were admitted to hospitals by the ambulance. The mean age of the patients was 43 years. The sex distribution was merely the same for both genders (49.4% male and 50.6% female). The most common symptoms were fever (82.4%, 95% CI 78.4-85.9), fatigue (49.6%, 95% CI 44.7-54.5), and cough (38.3%, 95% CI 33.6-43.1). The proportion of asymptomatic cases during the PCR testing were 16.6%. More than one symptom was observed in 57.6% of patients. Most common underlying health conditions were cardiovascular diseases (21.8%), diabetes (7.6%), kidney disease (3.6%), chronic lung disease (2.4%), cancer (2.2%), and chronic hepatitis (1.8%). Disease severity significantly differ among cases. Of those without comorbidity conditions, 94% had mild severity. However, among those with comorbidity conditions 35% were sever or critical. 50% of patients were reported as obese. The proportion of severe or critical patients was higher with BMI-18.5-24.9 and BMI ≥30. The case-fatality rate was 2.6%, with majority of deaths among aged ≥70. The severity of illness was strongly associated with comorbidity conditions and BMI. These findings are important to contribute and improve evidence-based knowledge for the novel coronavirus. Key messages Hospitalization of all COVID-19 cases, despite their severity, improving positive outcome of patients. Follow-up for discharged patients is necessary to control medium and long-term impact of COVID-19.

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